Antalya - Turkey

21 – 22 November, 2014

Regional Consultation on Climate

Services at the National Level for

South East Europe

Agriculture

Prof. Ordan Chukaliev, Ph.D.

Faculty of Agricultural Sciences and Food

University of Ss Cyril and Methodius, Skopje

The needs for climate services in the

Agriculture sector in the region

Who need climate services in the

Agriculture sector

Decision maker

For scientific based decision making

Researchers

For fancy papers and reports, conferences…

Producers - Farmers

For making their living

All groups need different services

but

All of them need clearly targeted

information according their needs

Decision maker

• Long term forecast for policy planning

• Early season crop yield forecasting

• Sezonal forecasts

• Etc (HELP!!!!!)

But is there meaning of this expression:

“in 10 years temperature will increase for 0,75oC and rainfall will

decrease for 8%”

They understand:

“the maize yield will decrease for 20% and national production will drop

for XXXX.”

Or better

“national economy will lost XXX EUR”

Researchers

They need row data.

“Give me your data and let me run my

models and analyses I need more

papers for keeping my position (or

getting better position)”

Producers - Farmers

• Seasonal forecasts

• 10-day forecast

• Comparison of LTA with present weather

• Comparison of previous year with this year

• Comparison of similar years

• Daily information

But

They need translated language:

Temperature accumulation since beginning of the season is higher by

20% than LTA means your crop shortened development and it will reach

flowering stage 10 days earlier

Or:

Rainfall accumulation in previous 10-days period was 70% lower than

LTA means drought you should irrigate (when and how much)

And more important

how to transfer information to him?

And have in mind

They are 200 000

The types of climate services you currently

access and use,

including any good practices

It was presented that there is not available

climate services in the country

We used JRC MARS tools, but they are not

available any more

We started to develop our “FARMERS

SUPPORT SYSTEMS”

Irrigation Scheduling (in Bitola and Resen)

Spraying information (Resen)

Workshop on Crop Yield Forecasting in SEE

Serbia provide services (meteorological and

agrometeorological data including crop model – CropSyst).

The influence of the assumed weather conditions on

development and yield of corn in the rest of the upcoming

growing season is forecasted for three different weather

scenarios (dry and hot, normal, cool and wet) – defined for

the period 1 July – 31 August based on daily meteorological

data (1990 – 2005). Further, example of 10 days CropSyst

bulletin was presented. The bulletin is available on

www.hidmet.gov.rs/ciril/meteorologija/agrometeorologija.php

.

University of Novi Sad is developing tools for using

meteorological data for issuing recommendations for the

farmers

In Turkey TARBiL operate 1200 robo-stations and

more than 2500 phenological CT sampling fields.

They analyse more than 16 000 mobile field

samplings during the season. The data are

collected and processed in 250mx250m grid

resolution. The sampling frequency is every 10

minutes for agro-meteo data and every 30 minutes

for agro-pheno data. Despite sampled data, more

than 120 different parameters are computed and

stored. Their activities cover declaration data for

more than 2 millions of farmers that operate with

more than 28 million of parcels.

Moreover the use of AroMetShell in Turkey is based on 265

meteorological stations that provide daily data. Further,

these data are processed in decadal and monthly values.

The meteorological data are combined with RS data (NDVI).

The crop parameters are calculated based on

meteorological data. These data combined with soil data

and historical yield statistic as well as management data are

in statistical model. The final product is crop yield forecast

that are presented in bulletin on crop yield forecast.

The presentation gave lot of examples of use of

AgroMetShell in Turkey (maps, graphs and tables). In the

final stage, Bulletin on crop yield forecast issued by Central

Research institute on field crops was presented. The bulletin

on crop yield forecasting is accessible via

http://www.tarlabitkileri.gov.tr/gis_web/bultenler.html

In Hungary the yield forecasting activities started in

1980. During the period 1997-2003, it became

operational with support from JRC crop yield

forecasting activities for following crops : winter

wheat, winter barley, spring barley, grain maize,

green maize, sunflower, sugar beet and alfalfa. The

yield forecast is issued 4 times per a year.

In Romania the agrometeorological products for all

interested parties are available at

http://www.meteoromania.ro/anm/?lang=ro_ro (in

Romanian language.).

In Croatia the agrometeorological forecast is part of

the daily activities of the department and

agrometeorological forecast is regularly

broadcasted as part of an agricultural or morning

programme on TV and radio. In addition,

agrometeorological bulletin is regularly published

and accessible through http://meteo.hr (in

Croatian). The ECMWF products are regularly used

in preparation of meteograms for soil temperature

and moisture, evapotranspiration and other

parameters 9 days in advance.

Slovenian agrometeorological data flow:

Data for agrometeorological parameters are available on:

http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/period and data for

phenology are available on:

http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/pheno/. The

evapotranspiration estimated by Penman –Monteith method

is also available on:

http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/data/arhiv_etp/. The

soil water properties map is developed for Slovenia by

Biotechnical Faculty. TDR (Trime) measurements of soil

water content are recorded at three soil depths and

precipitation is managed within meteorological monitoring.

Ten-day bulletins during the vegetation period are produced

and available online on:

http://meteo.arso.gov.si/met/sl/agromet/recent/wb/currentye

ar/.

In Montenegro some of the agro meteorological data are

available through web site www.meteo.co.me (in

Montenegrin). Data that can be accessed are soil

temperature at standard depths, Agrometeorological

Bulletin, soil temperature at 5cm depth, phenology and Ten-

day Review.

In Bosnia and Herzegovina agrometeorological data are

available on FHMIBiH

(http://www.fhmzbih.gov.ba/latinica/AGRO/AG-pocetna.php)

and RHMIRS

(http://www.rhmzrs.com/метеорологија/агрометеорологија).

The products available on the web site are:

Agrometeorological 7-day report (prepared every Friday),

Agrometeorological 7-day forecast (prepared every Friday),

Soil temperature on two depths (5 and 20 cm), daily report for

several stations on WEB (07, 14, 21), Basic parameters for 10

days (tabular and graphical form) on WEB (Tavg, Tmax, Tmin,

Tmin on 5 cm, precipitation). In addition, the web services

offer and four DAY FORECAST for soil temperature and soil

evaporation, based on numerical model WRF-NMM.

Challenges in accessing and using

climate information and services

Agriculture need services regularly

and on time, tomorrow is usually to

late

My field is not meteorological station

where data are collected. It is

specific site on the map. We need

site specific information related to

my specific conditions (soil, weather,

crop…)

The access to the services should

be easy and quick. TV and radio

programs, Web sites, SMS

messages are old fashion

technologies. Smart phone

applications should be developed

with site specific information

Two environmental challenges?

Climate Change

&

Desertification

What is this?

Worming world

&

Desertification

What is affected?

All of us, whole

humanity

But we have solutions?

Do he has?

We will finish this meeting.

And many more

Will he benefit from this?

Because his benefit is my benefit, he will produce food for me,

he will use less water, he will keep food and environment safe…

Cooperation/Synergies

Between/among

institutions in the region

(not all should provide

forecasts)

Cooperation/Synergies

Between/among service

providers and service

users

Cooperation/Synergies

Between/among ?????

CONCLUSION

We need services, but ask what and

how we need it.

I highly appreciate this meeting and

opportunity to be part of it, because

question was delivered!

CONCLUSION

Unfortunately I can not give right answer

but

Process started

I am looking forward for your

contribution!!!!

THANK YOU FOR YOUR

ATTENTION

ordan.cukaliev@zf.ukim.edu.mk

cukaliev@gmail.com