The Regional ClimateThe Regional ClimateRoger A. Pielke Sr.Roger A. Pielke Sr.

Professor & State ClimatologistProfessor & State ClimatologistColorado State University and Colorado State University and

Duke UniversityDuke UniversityCSU Speaker Series on Water in the Sustainable Landscape: CSU Speaker Series on Water in the Sustainable Landscape:

Conservation and BeyondConservation and BeyondFort Collins, ColoradoFort Collins, Colorado

February 2, 2004February 2, 2004

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/magazine.php

Colorado ExtremesColorado Extremes

US Drought MonitorUS Drought Monitor

April 1 SnowpackApril 1 SnowpackAPRIL 1 SNOWPACK COLORADO STATEWIDE

109

119

104

87

109106

130

99

46

126

148146

59

114120

127

104104

97

85 8791 93

126

84

105

112114

89

65

9087

52

92

74

9594

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

68 69 70 71 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

Year

Pe

rce

nt

of

Ave

rag

e

(throughJan 2004)

http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/historic.html

Colorado snowpack by basinColorado snowpack by basin

http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/getsummaries.html

Colorado Statewide SnowpackColorado Statewide Snowpack

http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/data/basins.html

Colorado Statewide Reservoir LevelsColorado Statewide Reservoir LevelsColorado Statewide Reservoir Levels on October 1st

for Years 1997-2003 and Jan 1, 2004

133

122

130

100

93

48

74 74

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

Oct 1. 1997 Oct 1. 1998 Oct 1. 1999 Oct 1. 2000 Oct 1. 2001 Oct 1. 2002 Oct 1. 2003 Jan 1. 2004

Per

cen

t o

f A

vera

ge

http://www.co.nrcs.usda.gov/snow/watersupply/

WY2004 through Dec 2003WY2004 through Dec 2003

12 Month SPI12 Month SPI

48 Month SPI48 Month SPI

Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.2 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months

Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.5 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months

Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level Projected Conditions at 0.8 Probability Level 12 Month SPI at 6 months12 Month SPI at 6 months

Can We Predict the Can We Predict the Future of Precipitation Future of Precipitation in Colorado?in Colorado?

TemperatureTemperatureDec 2003 – Feb 2004Dec 2003 – Feb 2004

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

PrecipitationPrecipitationDec 2003 – Feb 2004Dec 2003 – Feb 2004

From the Colorado Prediction Centerhttp://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/multi_season/13_seasonal_outlooks/color/churchill.html

Figure provided by T.N. Chase, University of Colorado, Boulder.Figure provided by T.N. Chase, University of Colorado, Boulder.

Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS) installation near Lindon, Colorado.Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS) installation near Lindon, Colorado.

Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS) installation near John Martin Reservoir, Colorado.Maximum-minimum temperature sensor (MMTS) installation near John Martin Reservoir, Colorado.

Map of study region, showing all surveyed COOP sites. The Map of study region, showing all surveyed COOP sites. The USHCN sites are indicated by stars. USHCN sites are indicated by stars.

The following photos are for HCN sites.The following photos are for HCN sites.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Eads, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures Eads, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Holly, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures Holly, CO. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics for the NWS COOP station near Rocky Ford, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. (CRS-Cotton Region Shelter)

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Trinidad, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the Trinidad, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W,exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate Cheyenne Wells, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Lamar, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the Lamar, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Wray, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the Wray, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively. exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Photographs of the temperature sensor exposure characteristics of the NWS COOP station at Las Animas, Colorado. Panel a) shows the temperature sensor, while panels b)-e) illustrate the exposures viewed from the temperature sensor looking N, E, S, and W, respectively.

Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the sensor Fort Morgan site showing images of the cardinal directions from the sensor (from Hanamean et al. 2003)(from Hanamean et al. 2003)

Policy Statement on Climate Variability and Policy Statement on Climate Variability and Change by the American Association of State Change by the American Association of State Climatologists (AASC)Climatologists (AASC)

1.1. Past climate is a useful guide to the future - Assessing past climate conditions provides a very effective analysis tool to assess societal and environmental vulnerability to future climate, regardless of the extent the future climate is altered by human activity. Our current and future vulnerability, however, will be different than in the past, even if climate were not to change, because society and the environment change as well. Decision makers need assessments of how climate vulnerability has changed.

2. Climate prediction is complex with many uncertainties. The AASC recognizes climate prediction is an extremely difficult undertaking. For time scales of a decade or more, understanding the empirical accuracy of such predictions - called “verification” - is simply impossible, since we have to wait a decade or longer to assess the accuracy of the forecasts.

Available at: http://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu/policystatement.php

Colorado Climate CenterColorado Climate Center Data and Power Point Presentations available for Data and Power Point Presentations available for

downloadingdownloading

http://ccc.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://ccc.atmos.colostate.edu– click on “Drought” click on “Drought”

– then click on “Presentations”then click on “Presentations”

Pielke Research GroupPielke Research Grouphttp://blue.atmos.colostate.eduhttp://blue.atmos.colostate.edu