arab climate resilience initiative first regional consultation meeting “climate change impacts in...
TRANSCRIPT
Arab Climate Resilience InitiativeFirst Regional Consultation Meeting
“Climate Change Impacts in the Arab Region: Water Scarcity, Drought and Population Mobility”
Damascus – Syrian Arab Republic15-16 September 2010
By
Balgis Osman-Elasha (PhD)
Regional Synopsis of Adaptation to Climate Change
Presentation outline
Adaptation Efforts in the region
Vulnerability and Adaptation
Conclusions
Background
Vulnerability (IPCC definition) The degree to which a system is
susceptible to, or unable to cope with, adverse effects of CC including climate variability & extremes.
It is a function of the magnitude, and rate of change to which a system is exposed, its sensitivity, and its adaptive capacity.
Background
Risk : is the overlay of hazard and vulnerability Disasters : are the realisation of risk
HAZARD
RISK
VULNERABILITYVULNERABILITY
Drought Flood Storm Coastal 1m Coastal 5m Agriculture
Malawi Bangladesh PhilippinesAll low-lying Island
StatesAll low-lying Island
States Sudan
Ethiopia China Bangladesh Vietnam Netherlands Senegal
Zimbabwe India Madagascar Egypt Japan Zimbabwe
India Cambodia Vietnam Tunisia Bangladesh Mali
Mozambique Mozambique Moldova Indonesia Philippines Zambia
Niger Laos Mongolia Mauritania Egypt Morocco
Mauritania Pakistan Haiti China Brazil Niger
Eritrea Sri Lanka Samoa Mexico Venezuela India
Sudan Thailand Tonga Myanmar Senegal Malawi
Chad Vietnam China Bangladesh Fiji Algeria
Kenya Benin Honduras Senegal Vietnam Ethiopia
Iran Rwanda Fiji Libya Denmark Pakistan
Middle Income
Low Income Source: World Bank
Developing Countries Are Most At Risk
Many countries face varying degrees of what we can call (the impacts of (multiple stressors) which can compound the impacts climate variability and change example:• Chronic poverty
• Increasing population
• Weak institutions and physical infrastructure
• Low access to technology and information,
• Political and social Instability
• Lack of political commitments, access to resources and management capabilities
• High illiteracy rates and lack of skills
• etc….
Non-climate factors leading to vulnerability in the region
IPCC projected large reductions in rainfall in N. Africa and Mediterranean
Annual precipitation changes over Africa between 1980-1999 & 2080-2099 from MMD-A1B simulations, mean for 21 models
IPCC Projections
While many parts of the Arab region particularly MENA will be facing a more frequent drought condition parts of the region such as Sudan and Yemen are projected to receive an increasing amount of rainfall and potential floods
(high uncertainty and increasing variability). (Brooks, 2007),
It is important to note that
Food insecurity: Food production would face an increased threat, arising from and increasing aridity and changes in the growing seasons and reduced agricultural yields.
increased poverty, undermining economic development, & delay or prevent the realization of the MDGs.
World Bank President Robert Zoellick’s at the United Nations Climate Change Conference in 2007 in Bali
called climate change a “development, economic, and investment challenge.”
Resulting Impacts (1)
Under a temperature increase of 1°C-3°C. Sea level rise poses a risk to low-lying coastal areas in Kuwait, Qatar, Libya, Tunisia, United Arab Emirates, and particularly to Egypt
This along with storm surges present huge threats to buildings and infrastructure in the region consequently, transportation systems, water and energy supplies, recreational tourism beach facilities and wastewater networks, will be at risk
Higher intensity and frequency of hot days will increase the demand for energy and impact the power generation
Potential Impacts (2)
Development
AdaptationMitigation
Low Carbon Dev
Climate Resilient
Dev
Climate Proofing
Climate Compatible
Development
The solution
Adaptation refers to all those responses to climate change that may be used to reduce vulnerability or to actions designed to take advantage of new opportunities that may arise as a result of climate change
Adaptation Concept
Type of adaptation
Characteristics Example
Autonomous adaptation
Adaptation that takes place naturally or not as a conscious response to climate change
Natural responses of plant species in response to e.g. drought or to seasonal changes (earlier spring)- autonomous farming practices (change sowing dates
Building adaptive capacity
Creating the information and conditions /regulatory institutional and managerial that enable adaptation to actions to be undertaken -Education and capacity-building
Climate change research funding- awareness creation among farmers- -developing policy support tools
Taking adaptive measure
Taking actions that help reduce vulnerability to climate risk or exploit opportunities
Creating water collection and storage facilities – introducing new crop varieties- resource management tools and infrastructure
Types of adaptation
In general terms ----------The ability of communities to adapt to climate change is determined by their level of development, their access to resources and their scientific and technical skills and capacities.
Adaptation Determinants (1)
For adaptation to be effective in addressing country/community levels impacts, it must:• progress at several levels simultaneously from local
to national to global;
• For the local and national efforts to be more effective it needs to be supported by enabling national policies, regulations and institutional setups – this should be supported by regional & international agreements.
Adaptation Determinants (2)
a) Information, as effective adaptation measures must be based on
accurate data and information (nature and extend of likely impacts - cost and efficacy of possible response measures).
b) Capacity: Technical and technological. c) Financial Resources: to ensure the provision of hardware and
software to deal with adaptation. d) Institutions— Adaptation responses cut across a number of
institutions need for coordination of comprehensive strategies and ensure sustainability
e) Technology; technology for adaptation is equally important as for mitigation, there is even greater need for adaptive technology that is suited to the specific needs and conditions.
Adaptation Determinants (2)
Essential adaptation development elements include
FAO highlighted the importance of policy reforms. In addition it emphasizes the importance of the following measures related to agriculture:• Development of climate change early warning systems,
• disaster risk management, • Increasing rural investments:• incentives to adopt better agricultural and land use
practices and crop insurance• building capacity and awareness • provision of supportive services such as extension
and research • data collection, monitoring, analysis& dissemination.
) Adaptation Determinants (3)
Adaptation efforts in the region
Adaptation Gap in the region
Fragmented efforts at national levels
No coordinated regional or sub-regional adaptation approach
The AFED Report, 2009 proposed a number of adaptation measures for different sectors
a. Water Resources: Improve efficiency, especially in irrigation, and develop new water resources including innovative desalination technologies.
b. Food Production: Develop new varieties of crops that can adapt to higher temperatures and different spans of seasons,
c. Sea Level Rise: Adapt land use regulations to the potential rise in sea level, by increasing the minimum clear distance required between buildings and shoreline.
d. Infrastructure and buildings: Choice of construction materials and techniques used for buildings, roads, and utility
e. Biodiversity: develop mechanisms for coordinating conservation actions across political boundaries and agency jurisdiction,
f. Human Health: Adapt human health systems and prepare them to respond to the consequences of climate change, .
g. Tourism: Explore and promote options for alternative tourism less vulnerable to climate variability, such as cultural tourism.
Addressing adaptation in the region: some examples
Some countries highlighted in their NCs and NAPAs, adaptation options and/or strategies for different sectors e.g.:
Agriculture: development of drought-tolerant crops, early warning systems, erosion control, training farmers
Health: improvement of the health care system,Forest: enhancement of forest management,Tourism: protection of tourism infrastructure, Biodiversity: strengthening of environmental
legislation and promotion of nature conservation.
Other identified adaptation priorities
This is because the majority of the Arab countries are considered among the world‘s most water scarce, and in many places demand for water already exceeds supply.
Climate change scenarios for water in the Arab region cannot be viewed in isolation, as rapid population growth, industrial development, urbanization and increasing demand for irrigation exert additional pressures on water resources.
Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources(1)
0 10 20 30 40
Middle East & North Africa
South Asia
Western Europe
East Asia & Pacific (incl. Japan&Koreas)
Sub-Saharan Africa
Europe & Central Asia
North America
Latin America & Caribbean
Australia & New Zealand
1000 m^3 / year
Annual renewable water resources per capita
The challenge of making an optimal water allocation for a growing number of competing water management options (e.g. agriculture, public consumption, industry, hydro-energy, ecosystems, etc.) under a changing climate system places a heavy burden on water managers.
The fact that the water sector is more than any other sector requires cooperation across various institutions and systematic updating. This particularly important for Trans-boundary water resources such as Nile Basin, which is shared between 0 nations -Cooperation is critical for sustainable management of water resources (Nile Basin Initiative)
Adaptation priorities in Arab countries converge over water resources (2)
Use of supplementary irrigation (reduce high dependency on rain.
Integrated water management Tapping different available sources (e.g.
desalinization, recycling) Harvesting and storage Efficiency of water use and demand control
We should not neglect water quality problems associated with CC
Adaptation measures identified for water resources under NCs
To address this region specific concerns:- A coordinated effort of capacity building,
training, research, & development is required.• A region-wide monitoring, making available
reliable observations and transforming them into useful information for a wide spectrum stakeholders particularly policy makers.
Addressing adaptation in the region: what needs to be done??
Plan adaptive strategies at the country and regional levels and work towards strengthening national capacities.
It is equally important that Arabic governments integrate climate risk-based approaches, within water policy frameworks.
Addressing adaptation in the region: what
needs to be done??
Adaptation at one scale/time or space could lead to mal adaptation at another scale/time or space.
E.g. dams at up-stream- water constraints at downstream.
Intensification of production –extraction of ground water –could impact future generation?
Agric inputs-impacts on water quality
Mal Adaptation
Many of the Arab countries are bordered or share resources with non-Arabic countries-some these countries don’t enjoy friendly relationships –
need to think of developing adaptation under antagonistic atmosphere.
Adaptation under a situation of hostility
•Regional cooperation in adaptation efforts should be fostered through the adoption of regional strategies and action plans that address CC concerns, and through the development of a regional early warning system for forecasts, risk assessment and monitoring of extreme events. An enhanced cooperation, development & implementation of integrated regional water management between countries sharing water sources - both surface and groundwater •Empowerment of communities,– particularly women and other vulnerable groups .•Involving civil societies and private sector
Conclusions