future agenda - the world in 2025 - opportunities for lebanon - beirut 03 06 15
TRANSCRIPT
The World in 2025 Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions Poten1al Opportuni1es for Lebanon | 3 June 2016 The world’s leading open foresight program
This Talk Covers Three Topics
The World in 2025 -‐ Insights from 120 Discussions Some Global Ques1ons about the Middle East Poten1al Opportuni1es for Lebanon
The World in 2025 | Insights from Mul0ple Expert Discussions
Future Agenda The Future Agenda is the world’s largest open foresight program
that accesses mul0ple views of the next decade so we can all be beGer informed and s0mulate innova0on.
Looking Forwards Organisa0ons increasingly want to iden0fy and understand
both the an0cipated and unexpected changes so that they can be beGer prepared for the future.
Future Agenda 2.0 Topics The second version of the Future Agenda program took place
during 2015 and has been addressing 24 topics via 120 events in 45 ci0es in 35 countries in partnership with 50 core hosts.
Ci0es
Educa0on
Learning
Transport
Collabora0on
Energy
Loyalty
Travel
Company
Faith
Payments
Water
Connec0vity
Food
Privacy
Wealth
Currency
Government
Resources
Work
Ageing
Data
Health
Trade
Future Agenda in Numbers The first Future Agenda programme engaged a wide range of views in
25 countries. Future Agenda 2.0 has doubled the face-‐to-‐face interac0on and significantly raised online sharing, debate and discussion.
Future Agenda 1.0 1 HOST 16 TOPICS 25 COUNTRIES 50 WORKSHOPS 1500 ORGANISATIONS
Future Agenda 2.0 50 HOSTS 24 TOPICS 35 COUNTRIES 120 WORKSHOPS 5000 ORGANISATIONS
Everything Connected Over 1 trillion sensors are connected to mul0ple networks: everything that can benefit from a connec0on has one. We deliver 10,000x more data 100x more effec0vely but are concerned about the security of the informa0on that flows.
Imbalanced Popula1on Growth A growing popula0on adds another billion people but it is also rapidly ageing: a child born next year will live 6 months longer than one born today. While migra0on helps to rebalance, increasing dependency ra0os challenge many.
ShiUing Power and Influence The centre of gravity of economic power con0nues shi_ing eastwards, back to where it was 200 years ago. Recent superpowers seek to moderate the pace of change but the reali0es of popula0on and resource loca0ons are immoveable.
Affordable Healthcare The escala0ng cost of healthcare is further stressed by the need to support the old and the chronically ill. Spending 20% of GDP on healthcare is seen as unsustainable so hard decisions are taken around budgets and priori0es.
Air Quality Rising air pollu0on in many ci0es is killing people and becomes a visible catalyst for changing mind-‐sets and policies across
health, energy, transporta0on and urban design.
Food Waste 30-‐50% of our food is wasted either in the supply chain or in consump0on and could feed another 3 billion. Op0mising distribu0on and storage in developing countries and enabling beGer consumer informa0on in others could solve this.
Intra City Collabora1on Increasing compe00on between ci0es overrides na0onal boundaries and drives
change. They compete to aGract the best but also collaborate to avoid the downside of success – over-‐crowding, under-‐resourcing and pollu0on.
Urban Obesity Mass urbanisa0on, reduced ac0vity and poor diets are accelera0ng the rise of obesity. Levels of obesity in most ci0es are growing fast and the associated healthcare burden will soon account for 5% of global GDP.
The Value of Data As organisa0ons try to retain as much informa0on about their customers as possible, data becomes a currency with a value and a price. It therefore
requires a marketplace where anything that is informa0on is represented.
The Changing Nature of Privacy As privacy is a public issue, more interna0onal frameworks seek to govern the Internet, protect the vulnerable and secure personal data: The balance between
protec0on, security, privacy and public good is increasingly poli0cal.
Ethical Machines Automa0on spreads beyond trading and managing systemic risk. As we approach technology singularity, autonomous robots and
smarter algorithms make ethical judgments that impact life or death.
Access to Transport The widespread need for individuals to travel short distances becomes a key feature of urban design and regenera0on. Planners use transport
infrastructure to influence social change and lower carbon living.
Capitalism Challenge Unable to shake issues like inequality, capitalist socie0es face cries for change, structural challenges and technology enabled freedoms. Together these re-‐write
the rules and propose a collabora0ve landscape of all working together.
Educa1on Revolu1on Broader access to improved educa0on acts as a major catalyst for
empowerment, sustained economic growth, overcoming inequality and reducing conflict. We need an educa0on system fit for the digital revolu0on.
Mass Engagement As the public voice becomes easier to access and harder to suppress, leaders seek to engage to create, develop, secure and maintain legi0macy for their
ini0a0ves and policies – so further reducing their hierarchical power.
Accelera1ng Displacement Climate change, conflict, resource shortages, inequality and poli0cal elites unable or unwilling to bring about necessary change all trigger unprecedented migra0on to the North. Over the next 50 years, as many as 1 billion people could be on the move.
Basic Sanita1on Poor sanita0on con0nues to impact public health and restrict social progress,
par0cularly for women. Governments and donor organisa0ons priori0se measurement, educa0on and innova0on in a bid to drive change.
Ci1zen-‐Centric Ci1es Successful ci0es will be designed around the needs and desires of increasingly empowered and enabled ci0zens -‐ who are expec0ng personalized services from the organisa0ons that serve them.
Flooded Ci1es The vast majority of our ci0es are not prepared for flooding. Many districts and households can no longer get flood insurance and are in jeopardy.
It’s going to get worse before it gets beGer.
Plas1c Oceans There are increasing high levels of man-‐made pollu0on in many of the world’s seas and liGle actually disappears.
By 2050 there will be more plas0c than fish in the world’s oceans.
Some1mes Nomads Elec0ve migra0on, cheap travel, interna0onal knowledge sharing and
increasingly transient working models create connected nomads who mix the tradi0ons of home with the values and customs of their host loca0on.
Working Longer People are having to work for longer to support longer re0rements.
Flexible working prac0ces and policies are emerging, but some employers con0nue to remain ambivalent about older workers.
Africa Growth With a land mass bigger than India, China, the US and Europe combined, few doubt the scale of the African con0nent and its resources. However, un0l
recently, only some have seen it as the growth market that it is fast becoming.
Declining Government Influence Na0onal governments’ ability to lead change comes under greater pressure from both above and below -‐ mul0na0onal organisa0ons increasingly set the rules while ci0zens trust and support local and network based ac0ons.
Eco-‐Civilisa1on Over the past 40 years China has grown apace, mostly without concern for
long-‐term environmental impacts. However, now faced with major challenges, a bright light of sustainable development is emerging.
Digital Money Cash con0nues to be gradually replaced by digital money, providing
consumers with more convenience and choice – and organisa0ons with lower cost transac0ons. Wider adop0on enables new offers to proliferate.
Skills Concentra1ons The need to build and develop capabili0es becomes increasingly challenging for companies and workers alike. Those who benefit from the high-‐skill reward opportuni0es remain a select group who move ahead of the urban pack.
Speed to Scale Greater global connec0vity, growing consumer wealth and broader reach all combine to accelerate the 0me to 1bn customers and a $10bn valua0on for start-‐ups and new corporate ventures alike.
Some Global Ques1ons about the Middle East
Oil Price Dependency The link of GDP to oil price across the Middle East is widely recognised
and so, as more alterna0ve energy sources come on-‐line, the impact of sustained low global oil prices on overall economic growth is a common ques0on.
US Withdrawal Especially as the presiden0al elec0on draws closer, with the US no longer an energy importer some are seeing a future where it is also no longer the global policeman: The US withdraws back to an Atlan0c / Pacific focus, leaving regional vacuums to fill.
Turkey As Regional Superpower While its poli0cal rela0onships with the EU and Russia are in flux, Turkey’s growing economic impact is widely recognised. Although there is some uncertainty around
short term direc0on, its growing popula0on and future trading influence are assumed.
Rising Youth Unemployment With unemployment rates over 50% in some na0ons, access to work is a rising barrier. Especially across North Africa, the Middle East and southern Europe, a lost genera0on of 100m young people fails to gain from global growth.
Lessons from Dubai With its growing interna0onal business reputa0on and significance as a
global trade centre, many are asking how far the Dubai model can be replicated, how sustainable it is … or whether it is really a ‘one-‐off’ for the region.
Poten1al Opportuni1es for Lebanon
Financial Services Growth Although some see problems with a legacy of red tape, bureaucracy and high tariffs, several believe that Lebanon can grow its banking sector and become and easier
place to do business in an increasingly connected, global marketplace.
Regional Centre of Learning With high ranking universi0es in the mix, many view that Lebanon can build on its exis0ng recogni0on to be the 21st Century centre of learning for the Middle East.
As others in the region seek to progress, Lebanon has history and ambi0on to hand.
Crea1ve Economy The crea0ve economy helps to build inclusive and sustainable cultures. What’s more, it generates wealth. To build scale it requires a workforce
comfortable with collabora0on, cri0cal thinking and the ability to take a risk.
Agriculture Growth With the highest propor0on of cul0vable land per capita in the Arab world, but many people in food poverty, increasing domes0c and export sales of high value fruits, vegetables and flowers will rely on improved technology, safety and cer0fica0on.
Female Leadership Women in richer economies have greater choice, and with it increased
control and influence. This con0nues to drive change and decision-‐making, but globally the baGle for female equality has a long road to travel.
Mass Medical Tourism With a good healthcare reputa0on and many leading Lebanese surgeons, some see a growing opportunity for medical tourism as low-‐cost cardiac surgery and broader healthcare provision join den0stry and cosme0c surgery to have global impact.
Tourism (Re)growth (Eventually) Lastly, many seem to be hoping that tourism can once again play a major role.
While some already see an upturn soon, the impact of the Syrian crisis, as well as recent history, challenge expecta0ons regionally and globally.
More Informa1on and Insights
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