Public Safety vs. 100-Year Floodplain

Doug Bellomo

ASFPM Annual Meeting

May 21, 2008

Flood Map Modernization

Potential CFM Exam Question 1 Potential CFM Exam Question 1

Are you safe if you live in

the

100-year floodplain?

Flood Map Modernization

Potential CFM ExamQuestion 2 Potential CFM ExamQuestion 2

Are you safe if you live outside

the 100-year floodplain?

Flood Map ModernizationSome Hints…… Some Hints……

The answers to both questions is the same.

The floodplain status has little to do with it.

Flood Map ModernizationIt’s a Trick QuestionIt’s a Trick Question

The answer is “you are safe” if:

• You know your risks.

• Avoid them to the maximum extent possible.

• Mitigate against what you can’t avoid.

• Insure against the rest.

Flood Map ModernizationIt’s a Trick Question It’s a Trick Question

The answer is “you are not safe” if you:

• Don’t listen to the science.• Close your eyes to the

risks.• Don’t effectively

communicate the threats.• Hope nothing will happen. • View insurance as a

burden rather than a benefit.

Flood Map Modernization

It is Possible To Be Safe in A FloodplainIt is Possible To Be Safe in A Floodplain

There are communities that not only live with their floodplains, but thrive with them.

• Common traits: They take responsibility and are

accountable for their actions. They are respectful of their

neighbors. They take a long view focused on

sustainability.• They do not:

Externalize their public safety responsibilities.

Turn a deaf ear or blind eye to their neighbors.

Gamble their future for short term gain.

Flood Map ModernizationHealthy CommunitiesHealthy Communities

Find a way to balance what some consider competing priorities:

• Economic Vitality• Public Safety• Environmental Stewardship

They have:• A vision of their future• A plan on how to get there,

and They systematically identify

and mitigate the risks and remove barriers in the way of achieving that vision

Flood Map ModernizationMitigation Is All Around UsMitigation Is All Around Us

Initial exposure at 16 years old.

The Virginia DMV. Google “IPDE” A four step process

outlined by American Safety Council.

Potential Hazard

IDENTIFY PREDICT DECIDE EXECUTE

Flood Map ModernizationThe Four Step “IPDE” ProcessThe Four Step “IPDE” Process

Step 1: Identify“A driver must practice scanning the driving environment for the primary purpose of IDENTIFYING real and potential hazards.”

Step 2: Predict “What might happen should you encounter a real or potential hazard.”

Step 3: Decide“What driver action you will implement (accelerate, steer, decelerate, or any combination of these vehicle control maneuvers) to avoid a crash with a real (or potential) hazard.”

Step 4: Execute“Carry out your decided-upon action.”

SOUND FAMILIAR?

11Identify Identify RiskRisk 22AssessAssess

RiskRisk

33CommunicateCommunicateRiskRisk44MitigateMitigate

RiskRisk

Risk MAP:

REDUCE LOSS OF LIFE &

PROPERTY AT LOCAL LEVELS

Transfer Risk

Reduce Risk

MapRisk Data

Goal – Measure Quantifiable Risk

Reduction

AssessPresent & Future

Risks

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Continuous Renewal & Improvement

Plan for Risk

Risk Mapping, Assessment, and Planning (Risk MAP) Lifecycle

Flood Map ModernizationAlas It’s Not So Simple Alas It’s Not So Simple

Communities are not cars traveling down a road.

But if they were:• They would have more than one person at the wheel. • Multiple people would be working the clutch, gas and

brake. • There would be at least one, perhaps two, navigating the

course.• The car would occasionally stop to let some out and

others in.• There would be kids screaming in the back seat.

Flood Map ModernizationThe Trick To SafetyThe Trick To Safety

Bring order to the car. Get everyone working together. Make sure the navigator has a good map and

knows where they are going (a plan). Stop at McDonalds to keep the kids happy and

quiet.

Flood Map ModernizationRisk MAPRisk MAP

Risk MAP aims to bring order to the car. Lays out a cyclical process that focuses mostly

on the “Identify,” but also a bit on the “Assess/Predict,” and the “Decide/Plan/Communicate.”

This gives you the time and information you need to:

• Convince your companies, states, or communities that mitigation pays

• Focus on taking the actions necessary to reduce risk

Flood Map ModernizationSafety and the 1% StandardSafety and the 1% Standard

There is no silver bullet, no levee, dam or other engineering wonder that will make a community “safe” enough they can ignore flood threats.

The 1% standard is not a “safety” standard – it’s a minimum requirement to be eligible for federal flood insurance.

Following the minimum standards will make you safer than not doing these things, but it won’t necessarily make you safe.

Real improvements to safety come from taking responsibility and employing a thoughtful honest process routinely over the long term.

Good luck on the exam!