floodplain management adapting to a changing climate freitag de pue asfpm 2010

88
Total Time Lecture Group Tasks Time Title Media Content Activity Lead Pre- workshop Background e-mail 1. Participates asked to read USGS report and Floodplain Management: a new approach…. 2. Participates asked to select a geographic region Read material and organize themselves in to groups assisted by instructors. Requested to bring maps illustrating local issues if desired. Freitag / DePue 5 5 min. Getting Organized None Participants arranged at tables by geographical region Moderators help participates sit at appropriate table Freitag / DePue 15 A 15 min. 1. Welcome Lecture, PowerPoint 1. Purpose of workshop 2. Expected outcome 3. Day’s program (6 step, 3 Task process) 4. Know each other. Indivudal participant activilty (name, organization, expected outcome) Freitag / DePue 2 1 2. min 2. Polling – (individual task) None Polling on participants attitude toward climate change 1. Problem (Al Gore) 2. Much to do about nothing ( more hype that science) 3. Unsure Indivudal participant activilty (Two container curculated among participants. Both opaque. One containes noodles of 3 different colors Colors correspond to 1. problem (green), hype (red) and unsure (yellow). Participants are asked to vote by selecting on color and placing the noodle piece from on jar into the other. Both jars are opaque and the selection is secret) Freitag / DePue 10 2 10 min. 3a. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem -- (Team task) None Determine assets or values that might be at risk. Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 10 10 min. 3b. Round 1 (Group): Reporting -- (Team task) None Participant table teams describe assets / values to class. Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 10 B 10 min. 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A) Lecture, PowerPoint Understanding risk. Introducing a working definition • Hazard • Impact • Capabilities Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag 40 C 40 min. 5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A) Lecture, PowerPoint Profile / Characterize Change / Region • Frequency • Location • Timing • Severity Listening. Question can be asked at any time. DePue 30 D 30 min 6. Impacts Lecture, PowerPoint Manipulate the effect (Beneficial or adverse) Vulnerability or exposure to • Systems • Built environment • Natural environment Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag 15 15 min. 6. Break None Informal discussions Networking 15 3 15 min. 8a. Round 2: Define Risks -- (Team task) None Identify risks to assets or values identified in task 1a Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 10 10 min. 8b. Round 2: Reporting -- (Team task) None Participant table teams describe risk identified Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 30 E 30 min. 9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A) Lecture, PowerPoint Present approaches and tool with in context of • Mitigation and the Four phases of emergency mangement • Climate change concepts (retreat, accommodate and protect) • Case studies (NW) Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag / DePue 15 4 15 min. 10a. Round 3: Identify Capabilities -- (Team task) None Identify capabiliites the reduce risks to assets or values identified in task 1a Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 10 10 min. 10b. Round 3: Reporting -- (Team task) None Participant table teams describe capabilities Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag / DePue 20 F 20 min. 11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all) None Discussion of issues present Discussion by entire class Freitag / DePue Strategies 237 3.95 This workshop will help floodplain managers, planners, engineers, and scientists identify Climate Change impacts for their geographic region and area of interest; and identify adaption strategies. Group activity will include a region specific climate change scenario used to identify threatened values/assets associated with specific floodplains, applying a 6 step approach to identify adaptation measures. Instructors: Michael DePue, PE, CFM, PBS&J; Bob Freitag, CFM, University of Washington Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate

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Page 1: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

Tota

l

Tim

e

Lect

ure

Gro

up

Task

s

Time Title Media Content Activity Lead

Pre-

workshop

Background e-mail 1. Participates asked to read USGS report

and Floodplain Management: a new

approach….

2. Participates asked to select a geographic

region

Read material and organize themselves in to groups

assisted by instructors. Requested to bring maps

illustrating local issues if desired.

Freitag /

DePue

5

5 min. Getting Organized None Participants arranged at tables by

geographical region

Moderators help participates sit at appropriate table Freitag /

DePue

15 A

15 min. 1. Welcome Lecture,

PowerPoint

1. Purpose of workshop

2. Expected outcome

3. Day’s program (6 step, 3 Task process)

4. Know each other.

Indivudal participant activilty (name, organization,

expected outcome)

Freitag /

DePue

2 1

2. min 2. Polling – (individual task) None Polling on participants attitude toward

climate change

1. Problem (Al Gore)

2. Much to do about nothing ( more hype

that science)

3. Unsure

Indivudal participant activilty (Two container curculated

among participants. Both opaque. One containes

noodles of 3 different colors Colors correspond to 1.

problem (green), hype (red) and unsure (yellow).

Participants are asked to vote by selecting on color and

placing the noodle piece from on jar into the other.

Both jars are opaque and the selection is secret)

Freitag /

DePue

10 2

10 min. 3a. Round 1 (Group):

Determine Problem -- (Team

task)

None Determine assets or values that might be at

risk.

Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

10

10 min. 3b. Round 1 (Group): Reporting

-- (Team task)

None Participant table teams describe assets /

values to class.

Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

10 B

10 min. 4. Developing a Risk /

Opportunity Model -- (Lecture

with Q and A)

Lecture,

PowerPoint

Understanding risk. Introducing a working

definition

• Hazard

• Impact

• Capabilities

Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag

40 C

40 min. 5. Understanding Climate

change Science -- (Lecture with

Q and A)

Lecture,

PowerPoint

Profile / Characterize Change / Region

• Frequency

• Location

• Timing

• Severity

Listening. Question can be asked at any time. DePue

30 D

30 min 6. Impacts Lecture,

PowerPoint

Manipulate the effect (Beneficial or adverse)

Vulnerability or exposure to

• Systems

• Built environment

• Natural environment

Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag

15 15 min. 6. Break None Informal discussions Networking

15 3

15 min. 8a. Round 2: Define Risks --

(Team task)

None Identify risks to assets or values identified in

task 1a

Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

10

10 min. 8b. Round 2: Reporting --

(Team task)

None Participant table teams describe risk

identified

Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

30 E

30 min. 9. Identifying Capabilities -- (

Lecture with Q and A)

Lecture,

PowerPoint

Present approaches and tool with in context

of

• Mitigation and the Four phases of

emergency mangement

• Climate change concepts (retreat,

accommodate and protect)

• Case studies (NW)

Listening. Question can be asked at any time. Freitag /

DePue

15 4

15 min. 10a. Round 3: Identify

Capabilities -- (Team task)

None Identify capabiliites the reduce risks to assets

or values identified in task 1a

Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

10

10 min. 10b. Round 3: Reporting --

(Team task)

None Participant table teams describe capabilities Small group activity. Working in table groups. Freitag /

DePue

20 F

20 min. 11. Discussing Strategies and

Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

None Discussion of issues present Discussion by entire class Freitag /

DePue

Strategies

237

3.95

This workshop will help floodplain managers, planners, engineers, and scientists identify Climate Change impacts for their geographic region and area of interest;

and identify adaption strategies. Group activity will include a region specific climate change scenario used to identify threatened values/assets associated with

specific floodplains, applying a 6 step approach to identify adaptation measures. Instructors: Michael DePue, PE, CFM, PBS&J; Bob Freitag, CFM, University of

Washington

Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Page 3: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

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2

Adapting to a Changing Climate

1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team

task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

Floods Are Not the Problem

Six Questions to ask when choosing a plan to control the effects of flooding:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or

enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for

enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-

enhancement strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance

the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy

introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

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A New Vocabulary

• Flood: Neither positive or negative; it is simply water spilling over its banks. A change in condition that could be a hazard or lead to an opportunity

• Hazard: Often seen as something with a potentially adverse effect. “Change” may be a better word.

• Change: A change in condition could be a hazards or lead to an opportunity

• Opportunities: can be viewed as being similar but opposite of risk; the benefits

• Risk: a function of “Change” in condition, Impacts and Capabilities. Risk and Opportunities are different sides of the same coin.

• Disaster: a realized risk

• Benefit: a realized opportunity.

• Mitigation and adaptation ( with flooding being a secondary hazard)

• Adaptation: Retreat, accommodate, protect

Resiliency –“the ability to tolerate change”

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Ecological Resilience vs. Engineering Resilience

• Ecological Resilience is a Better Framework

Engineering Resilience Ecological Resilience

Seeks stability Accepts inevitability of change

Resists disturbance Absorbs and recovers from disturbance

One equilibrium point Multiple, non-stable equilibria

Single acceptable outcome Multiple acceptable outcomes

Predictability Unpredictability

Fail-safe Safe-fail

Narrow tolerances Wide tolerances

Rigid boundaries and edges Flexible boundaries and edges

Efficiency of function Persistence of function

Redundancy of structure Redundancy of function

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A Resilient City Case Study: Snoqualmie, Washington

• Case Study: Snoqualmie, Washington– 698 of 700 housing units in floodplain– 13 disaster flood related declarations between 1965 and

2001– Water is clean, slow-moving and comes with warning – Flooding benefits downstream communities. – Most severely floodprone homes have been elevated.

(several hundred since 1986)– City amenities defined by river and river location

• Climate change is increasing flood frequency. • Snoqualmie will always flood. • Snoqualmie is becoming resilient to flood damage.

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6

Northeast

Southeast

Midwest

Great PlainsSouthwest

Northwest

USGS

Teams

• Northeast

• Southeast

• Midwest

• Great Plains

• Southwest

• Northwest

• Alaska

• Islands

• Coasts

1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine

Problem and Reporting -- (Team task)

4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)

5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)

6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts

-- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and

Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture

with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and

Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up

(Discussion by all)

Page 8: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

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Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting

Adapting to a Changing Climate

1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team

task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

Page 9: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

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Six Step Process

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Page 10: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

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Adapting to a Changing Climate:

Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model

Six Step Process

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Page 11: Floodplain Management Adapting To A Changing Climate Freitag De Pue Asfpm 2010

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2

Risks and Opportunities

Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on changePrimary and secondary

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Systems: Money

Frequency Built environment Power

Severity Natural environment Timing

Timing

Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.

Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity

Risks and Opportunities

Focus on Primary and secondary hazard

or disturbance

• Location• Frequency• Severity• Timing

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

or exposure

Systems: • Built environment• Natural environment• Societal, political, and organizational

Strategies made up of approaches and tools

• Money • Power • Timing

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Geographic Information Systems (GIS) Layers

Exposed inventory (e.g. Floodprone parcels with without road accesses)

Parcels – inventory

Change 1 (floodplain can be raster or vector)

Change 2 (floodway can be raster or vector)

Real World (floodplain)

Infrastructures - inventory (e.gaccess roads)

Points

Polygons

Lines

Risk /Opportunity = f ( exposed Inventory / change )

•HAZARD/CHANGE•Impacts•Capabilities

RISK / (OPPORTUNITY)

ASSESSMENT

RISK/OPP.

ACCEPTABLE RISK (ACHIEVEABLE OPPORTUNITY)

UNACCEPTABLE RISK/OPP.

RISK REDUCTION /

OPPORTUNITY ENHANSEMENT

•PREVENTION/MITIGATION•PREPAREDNESS•EMERGENCY RESPONSE•RECOVERY and

RECONSTRUCTION

POLICY OPTIONS

Natural Environment- Climate- Biology- GeologyBuilt Environment- Structures- InfrastructureSystems

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4

Natural Processes Must Drive Solutions

• Case Study: New York, New York– The Catskill/Delaware watershed provides 90% of the drinking water for

New York City. The 1600 square mile watershed allows excellentfiltration with some chlorination to kill microorganisms.

– Development in the Catskills threatened the ability of the watershed tofilter the water naturally and the EPA began to demand that New Yorkinstall a new filtration system costing billions.

• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement

strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

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1

Adapting to a Changing Climate:

Profiling the Change

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Outline

• Introduction

• Overview of Broad Trends

• Impact of Climate Change in the United States by region

– Frequency

– Location

– Timing

– Severity

What is “Climate Change”?

• “Climate Change” is the term for the change in thestatistical distribution of weather over periods oftime that range from decades to millions of years.

• In recent decades general climate change has beentrending towards a gradual warming of the earth’satmosphere and oceans. This upward temperaturetrend is usually called “Global Warming”

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Global Warming

Source of table: Global Warming Art; Source of data: NASA, Goddard Institute for Space Studies (Hansen, et al, 2006)

Climate Change in the United States.

• Key findings– Average U.S. temperature has risen more than 2°F

over the past 50 years– Precipitation has increased an average of about 5

percent over the past 50 years• Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier.

– Heaviest downpours have increased approximately 20 percent on average in the past century• Strongest increases in the wettest places.

– Many types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense during the past 40 to 50 years.

From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.

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Climate Change in the United States.

• Key findings (continued)– Destructive energy of Atlantic hurricanes has increased

– In eastern Pacific, the strongest hurricanes have become stronger since the 1980s even while the total number of storms has decreased.

– Sea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S. coasts

– For cold-season storms outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting northward and the strongest storms are projected to become stronger.

– Arctic sea ice is declining rapidly and this is projected to continue

From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.

Climate Change and Water Resources Management: A Federal Perspective 2009

From: Brekke, L.D., Kiang, J.E., Olsen, J.R., Pulwarty, R.S., Raff, D.A., Turnipseed, D.P., Webb, R.S., and White, K.D., 2009, Climate change and water resources management—A federal perspective: U.S. Geological Survey Circular 1331, 65 p. (Also available online at http://pubs.usgs.gov/circ/1331/)

Temperature Trends

Sea Level Trends

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U.S. Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise 2009

From: “U.S. Climate Change Science Program Synthesis and Assessment Product 4.1, Coastal Sensitivity to Sea Level Rise: A Focus on the Mid-Atlantic Region.” Lead Agency: U.S. Environmental Protection Agency. Other Key Participating Agencies: U.S. Geological Survey, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Contributing Agencies: Department of Transportation. January 15, 2009

Climate Change in the United States.

• Other trends occurring on regional scale– A longer growing season

– Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain

– Reduced snowpack

– Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers

– Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows

– In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent

– Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought

– Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes

From: Third Public Review Draft of the Unified Synthesis Product Global Climate Change in the United States. National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), Department of Commerce. April 27, 2009.

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Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought

(USGS, Abrupt Climate Change, 2008)

Water infrastructure will have to be redesigned. Water use will have to adjust to limited water availability.

From: CCSP, 2008: Abrupt Climate Change. A report by the U.S. Climate Change Science Program and the Subcommittee on Global Change Research [Clark, P.U., A.J. Weaver (coordinating lead authors), E. Brook, E.R. Cook, T.L. Delworth, and K. Steffen (chapter lead authors)]. U.S. Geological Survey, Reston, VA, 459 pp.

http://www.arborday.org/media/mapchanges.cfm

Increase in mean global temperature of 1.8°C is likely to lengthen the growing season in higher latitudes. Changes in the Mid-latitudes are mixed. (USDA, 2001)ers.usda.gov/publications/aib765/aib765-8.pdf

From: Roy Darwin. United States Department of Agriculture, Economic Research Service. Climate Change and Food Security. Agriculture Information Bulletin Number 765-8 June 2001

A longer growing season

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General Trends Commonly Found in CC ReportsType Scale Impact Source

Cyclones Global Increase in tropical cyclone peak wind intensities IPCC 2001

Cyclones USA Warmer coast waters and more hurricanes NOAA 2009

Land Cover USA A longer growing season NOAA 2009

Multi-Hazard USAMany types of extreme weather events have become more frequent and intense

during the past 40 to 50 years. NOAA 2009

Precipitation Global Increase in tropical cyclone mean and peak precipitation intensities IPCC 2001

Precipitation Global Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought IPCC 2001

Precipitation Global More intense precipitation events IPCC 2001

Precipitation USA In some areas, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent NOAA 2009

Precipitation USA Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as rain NOAA 2009

Precipitation USA Reduced snowpack NOAA 2009

Precipitation USA Wet areas wetter, dry areas drier. NOAA 2009

Sea Level Rise Global Increased coastal erosion due to increased sea levels USEPA 2009

Sea Level Rise USASea level has risen 2 to 5 inches during the past 50 years along many U.S.

coasts NOAA 2009

Storm Tracks USAFor cold-season storms outside the tropics, storm tracks are shifting northward

and the strongest storms are projected to become stronger. NOAA 2009

Temperatures Global Higher maximum temperatures and more hot days over nearly all land areas IPCC 2001

Temperatures GlobalHigher minimum temperatures, fewer cold days and frost days over nearly all

land areasIPCC 2001

Temperatures Global Increase of heat index over land areas IPCC 2001

Temperatures Global Reduced diurnal temperature range over most land areas IPCC 2001

Temperatures USA Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers NOAA 2009

Temperatures USA Earlier spring snowmelt and earlier peak river flows NOAA 2009

Northeast

Southeast

Midwest

Great PlainsSouthwest

Northwest

USGS

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Northeast

• Impacts– More frequent days with temperatures above 90°F– A longer growing season– Increased heavy precipitation– Less winter precipitation falling as snow and more as

rain– Reduced snowpack– Earlier breakup of winter ice on lakes and rivers– Earlier spring snowmelt resulting in earlier peak river

flows– Rising sea surface temperatures and sea level

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Northeast

• Extreme heat and declining air quality

• Agricultural production likely to be adversely affected as favorable climates shift

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Northeast

• Climate change illustrated:

– Massive changes in the environment of the northeast: A change in climate equivalent to moving upstate New York to the latitude of South Carolina!

Source: New York State Department of Environmental Conservation

Northeast

• Challenge: Urban Flooding

Source: US Environmental Protection Agency

Red shading shows a rise of 1.5 meters

Downtown Boston

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Northeast

• Case Study: Chesapeake Bay

– The combination of sea level rise and land subsidence has caused a relative rise in sea height of one foot over the past century.

Areas at risk by height of sea

level rise

Southeast

• For the Southeast:– Annual average temperature has

risen about 2°F since 1970• Greatest increase in winter

– Since 1901, average fall precipitation has increased by 30 percent

– Noticeable increase in heavy downpours in many areas

– Increase in percentage of land area experiencing drought in last 30 years

– Trend is towards warmer coast waters and more hurricanes• Expect individual hurricanes to result

in more rainfall than in the past

– Total future precipitation trends unclear• Models disagree

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Southeast

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Southeast

• Challenge: Hurricanes

– The number of large hurricanes will increase

– Their impact will be more wide-spread and severe

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Southeast

Source: Scientific American

Southeast

Source: Tampa Bay Regional Planning Council

TampaClearwater

St. Petersburg

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Southeast

Challenge: Loss of wetlands as a

protective barrier

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Midwest

• Longer growing season• Increases in heat waves, floods, droughts, insects,

and weeds will present• Likely increase in precipitation in winter and

spring, more heavy downpours, and greater evaporation in summer would lead to more periods of both floods and water deficits.

• Significant reductions in Great Lakes water levels• During the summer increasing heat waves,

reduced air quality, and insect and waterborne diseases.

• Native species are very likely to face increasing threats from rapidly changing climate conditions, pests, diseases, and invasive species

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Midwest

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Great Plains

• Projected increases in temperature, evaporation, and drought frequency

• Agriculture, ranching, and natural lands are very likely to also be stressed by rising temperatures.

• Climate change is likely to affect native plant and animal species by altering key habitats

• Ongoing shifts in the region’s population from rural areas to urban centers will interact with a changing climate

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Great Plains

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Great Plains

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Southwest

• Water supplies will become increasingly scarce, calling for tradeoffs among competing uses, and potentially leading to conflict.

• Increasing temperature, drought, wildfire, and invasive species will accelerate transformation of the landscape.

• Increased frequency and altered timing of flooding will increase risks to people, ecosystems, and infrastructure.

• Unique tourism and recreation opportunities are likely to suffer.

• Cities and agriculture face increasing risks from a changing climate.

• Ecological thresholds are likely to be crossed throughout the region, causing major disruptions to ecosystems and to the benefits they provide to people.

• Quality of life will be affected by increasing heat stress, water scarcity, severe weather events, and reduced availability of insurance for at-risk properties

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Southwest

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Southwest

• Challenge: Effects of mudslides as a result of brush and forest fires

Northwest

• Declining springtime snowpack leads to reduced summer stream flows, straining water supplies.

• Increased insect outbreaks, wildfires, and changing species composition in forests

• Salmon and other coldwater species will experience additional stresses as a result of rising water temperatures and declining summer stream flows

• Sea-level rise along vulnerable coastlines will result in increased erosion and the loss of land.

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Northwest

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Alaska

• Longer summers and higher temperatures are causing drier conditions, even in the absence of strong trends in precipitation.

• Lakes are declining in area.• Thawing permafrost damages

roads, runways, water and sewer systems, and other infrastructure.

• Coastal storms increase risks to villages and fishing fleets.

• Displacement of marine species will affect key fisheries

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Alaska

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Islands

• The availability of freshwater is likely to be reduced

• Island communities, infrastructure, and ecosystems are vulnerable to coastal inundation due to sea-level rise and coastal storms.

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

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Islands

From: Global Climate Change Impacts in the United States, Thomas R. Karl, Jerry M. Melillo, and Thomas C. Peterson,(eds.). Cambridge University Press, 2009.

Longer growing season

Topography

Riverine

Hydrology

Riverine

Hydraulics

Hydraulic

StructuresMore vegetation on

levees

More vegetation on

dams

New environmental

permit reqs for

maintenance

Changes to surface

roughness and

runoff times

Changes to runoff

coefficients

Evapotranspiration

changes

Changes to erosion

of landscape

More difficulty

obtaining aerial

topo due to

vegetation

Increased

roughness in

channels

Wider floodplains

due to more

roughness

Potential for

additional or new

debris in floods

More topo coverage

needed for bigger

floods-roughness

A longer growing season

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Increased summer continental drying and associated risk of drought

Increased summer

drying and risk of

drought

Topography

Riverine

Hydrology

Riverine

Hydraulics

Hydraulic

Structures

Less vegetation on

levees—more

erosion

Less vegetation on

dams—more

erosion

Loss of endangered

species and env

permit issues

Changes to surface

roughness and

runoff times

Changes to runoff

coefficients

Evapotranspiration

changes

Changes to erosion

of landscape

Dust storms,

limiting aerial flight

Less vegetation in

channel, more

erosion

Harder to convince

public of flood risk

in drought

More flashy flows,

unsteady routing

needed

Desert pavement

formation ?

Fire risk to pump

stations, etc.

Increased fire risk

with associated

runoff changes

Less saturation time

for structures

Groundwater table

increases or

decrease

More intense precipitation events

More intense

precipitation events

Topography

Riverine

Hydrology

Riverine

Hydraulics

Hydraulic

StructuresChanges to PMP/

PMF for Dams

Changes to interior

drainage design

precip for levees

Design rainfalls

outdated

Changes to AMC

Change to precip

S-curve

Time of

concentration

changes

Changes to erosion

of landscape

Possible need for

unsteady routing

due to flash effects

More structure

overtopping

Wider floodplains

More erosive flows,

geomorph changes

Increased pluvial

erosion near

structures

More topo coverage

needed for bigger

floods

More breakouts to

other basins with

higher flows

Additional

saturation for

structures

Groundwater table

increases or

decrease

Rating curves must

be bigger for higher

flows

Rating curves must

be bigger for higher

flows

More breakouts to

other basins with

higher flows

More breakouts to

other basins with

higher flows

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Risks and Opportunities

Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on changePrimary and secondary

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Systems: Money

Frequency Built environment Power

Severity Natural environment Timing

Timing

Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.

Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity

The physical and biological changes driving strategies:

• Global warming and associated changes in the amount of rain and season run off, giving us less storage in the form of snow and ice often resulting in higher summer peaks and lower summer flows; and more stream energy, causing more channel instability.

• Changes in vegetative cover, caused by global warming and increased urbanization contributing to soil erosion, less vegetative friction, less transevaporation, reduced soil moisture, and greater fluctuations in discharges in associated rivers.

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Projected Flows – Rivers draining the

Cascades

Capabilities and Tools

• Case Study: Davenport, Iowa– The City of Davenport floods regularly and began

looking into the construction of a floodwall.– After consideration, the City declined to build the wall

and instead began to buy-up flood-prone properties.

• The Six Questions revisited:– 1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?– 2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for

enhancement?– 3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-

enhancement strategies available?– 4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the

resource?– 5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

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QUESTIONS?

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Adapting to a Changing Climate:

Identifying Impacts

Risks and Opportunities

Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on changePrimary and secondary

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Systems: Money

Frequency Built environment Power

Severity Natural environment Timing

Timing

Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.

Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity

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Watershed processes

Profiling Change (Hazard)Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing

Natural Geological Environments

• Basics – Watershed, energy, sediment

• Karst

• Glaciations

• Loess and ground cover

• Climate

• Permafrost

• Other

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What does a river do -- functions(represents a risk / opportunity)

• Transports sediment

• Drains the watershed

• Provides fresh water supply.

• Transports chemicals and nutrients

• Provides Energy

• Provides habitat for living things.

What do we do to and with rivers?We use rivers to:

• Provide water for living --crops and drinking

• Discard waists

• Provide cooling for domestic and Industrial uses

• Transportation

• Support fisheries

• Recreate and enjoy

• Provide a sense of place, barriers, buffers….

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Elements Of Channel Formation

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Glacial Impact Areas

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Loess

Wind Blown Silt

From Glaciers

Rock Flour

Stream Banks Stand Vertical

When Stable

Water Distribution(Total Units)

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Topographic Influence

Average Runoff Patterns

Low ----- Western Plains & Southwest

High ----- New England, Appalachians, Gulf Coast

& Pacific Northwest

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Figure 2. Permafrost distribution in the Arctic. "Most of the Arctic is covered by ice and snow for more than eight and even up to twelve months a year, but conditions are highly variable, ranging from snow several metres deep each winter to the polar deserts of northern Greenland with only 50- 100 mm of precipitation annually. A large portion of the Arctic is underlain by permafrost. Permafrost, defined as ground that does not thaw for two or more years, can reach a thickness of up to 1000 metres, as it does on the North Slope of Alaska. It extends through as much as 50% of Canada and 80% of Alaska (Clark, 1988)." Image credit: Philippe Rekacewicz, 2005, UNEP/GRID-Arendal Maps and Graphics Library based on International Permafrost Association (1998) Circumpolar Active-Layer Permafrost System (CAPS), version 1.0..

Profiling Change (Hazard)Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing

Natural Biological Environments• Food Webs and Trophic Ecology

• Natural cycles – Carbon, Nitrogen…

• Product of disturbances

• Need for diversity

• Importance of the hyporheic zone

• River continuum corridors

• Four diminutions

• Serial discontinuity

• Corridor elements

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Food Webs &Trophic Ecology

Input environment Output environment

Ecosystem

Food Webs &Trophic Ecology

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Natural cycles – Carbon, Nitrogen…

Nutrient Spiraling

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Product of DisturbancesFlood Pulse Concept

http://www.fao.org/docrep/004/Y2785E/y2785e02.htm Tibee Creek Mississippi

http://www.oregon.gov/ODOT/CS/SSB/images/history_center_flood/keizer_1.jpg 1964

Lateral and Temporal Dimension

Characteristics of disturbancesImportant temporally and spatially

• Frequency – number of times an event or disturbance occurs over a fixed time period, referred to more accurately as probability (e.g. probability of a flood of a given magnitude over some time period)

• Duration – The time span over which the disturbance occurs (e.g., flooded time period)

• Magnitude – this size of the disturbance, this may refer to the quantity of the disturbance (e.g., flood stage) or the area covered (e.g., acres flooded)

These concepts are evident in engineering design in the form of design limits (e.g., the use of ‘depth-duration-intensity’ charts for precipitation used for designing runoff storage)

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Complexity and Diversity

Riverine systems are highly variable in space and time even under natural conditions. Restoration or other actions should not seek to homogenize the system.

Think about the processes that create disturbances and thus create diversity

http://www.sfwmd.gov/org/erd/krr/photo/changal/krr571.html

Hyporheic Corridor Concept

Vertical Dimension

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Commonly measured substances related to water quality

• Light

• Temperature

• Dissolved ions

• Suspended solids

• Nutrients and gases

• Toxics such as metals and pesticides/herbicides

River Continuum Conceptual

Diagram

Longitudinal dimension

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Taiga, boreal forests

Serial Continuity

Tundra

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Natural Processes Must Drive Solutions

• Case Study: New York, New York

– The Catskill/Delaware watershed provides 90% of the drinking water forNew York City. The 1600 square mile watershed allows excellentfiltration with some chlorination to kill microorganisms.

– Development in the Catskills threatened the ability of the watershed tofilter the water naturally and the EPA began to demand that New Yorkinstall a new filtration system costing billions.

• The Six Questions revisited:

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Our Built Environment is often the Change (Hazard)

Our Built

Environment is

ALSO be

impacted.

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Our Relationship to Rivers

• The Value of Rivers and Floodplains

– History of Relationship:

• Hunter-Gatherer Societies

• Early Agrarian Societies to Urban-Agricultural Civilization

• Eighteenth and early Nineteenth Centuries River Valley Settlement in America

• Mid-Twentieth Century to Present, Urban Riverfronts and Floodplain Urbanization

– The Cincinnati Experience

Our Relationship to Rivers

• Case Study: Chicago, Illinois

– The Chicago Stockyards were one of the economic engines of Chicagofrom it’s beginning.

– However, the stockyards generated enormous amounts of waste andpollution that was directed to Lake Michigan. The Lake was also thesource of Chicago’s fresh water supply.

• The Six Questions revisited:

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

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Various (often conflicting) Philosophies of Flood Management

• Historically the three main agencies concerned with flood management have been:– USACE: Managing Change, Often with Big

Footprints

– Natural Resources Conservation Services: Smaller Footprints, but Cumulative Effects

– National Flood Insurance Program: Focusing on the Effects of Change

• No Adverse Impact (NAI)

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Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting --

Adapting to a Changing Climate

1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team

task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

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Six Step Process

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Worksheets (Presented for information only.

Participants not expected to complete forms)

To approaches or tools lie with the:

Change agent (hazard) (changing frequency (levee), severity, (storage), location (rerouting) or timing (LID)

Impact reduction: (retreating off floodplain, accommodating flooding (wet floodproofing) or Protection (diking around structure)

Capabilities: (sharing risk, amassing political strength…)

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Adapting to a Changing Climate:

Identifying Capabilities

Risks and Opportunities

Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on changePrimary and secondary

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Systems: Money

Frequency Built environment Power

Severity Natural environment Timing

Timing

Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.

Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity

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Six Step Process

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Capabilities – Approaches and Tools

Basic approaches (adaptation)1. Prevent (secondary hazards)*2. Accommodate 3. Retreat4. Protect

Themes1. Work from macro scale down2. Smallest foot print probably best3. Water is a resources not a risk -- opportunity 4. Think seasonally, long term 5. Consider geology and biology6. Exploit beneficial processes then assess for NAI

* Within the Climate change Community “Mitigation” refers to reducing carbon emissions. Adaptation often includes may of the more traditional mitigation approaches advocated by the floodplain management community.

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Any River gage

Acc

om

mo

dat

e

Levee height .

Any River gage

Minimaldamage

Area of Major Impact

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Levee height .

Any River gage

Minimaldamage

PREVENTABLE damage

Extreme damage

Levee height .

Any River gage

Minimaldamage

PREVENTABLE damage

Extreme damage

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Levee height .

Any River gage

Minimaldamage

PREVENTABLE damage

Flood stage lowered –increasing

storage

Levee height .

Any River gage

Minimaldamage

Extreme damage

PREVENTABLE damage

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Watershed processes

Water Hazards / Changes:Land cover / land use functions

Population growth as a Hazard: Change agent

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Water Hazards / Changes:Land cover / land use functions

Storing Water within higher watershed

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No Beavers

Beavers reintroduced

Storing Water within higher watershed

• Dam Types

– Beaver dams

– Check dams

– Timber dams

– Portadam®

– Earthen dams

– Reinforced Concrete dam

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Site Overview Map

Total Storage Gained: 850.5 acre-feet or ~ 8% of Required Peak Flow Reduction to Prevent Flooding

Little Eagle Lake dam

Eagle Lake dam

Beaverdam Lake dam Green River dam #1

Green River dam #2

Howard Hanson Dam

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Developed flood friendly environment to: accommodate :

• critical storage areas

• low-impact development

• flooding

Storing Water within middle and lower watershed / floodplain

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Setback Levee ExampleBioengineered- Narita Levee

Four Years Later

Source: King County

Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural

• Rethinking structural methods

– Setback levees

– Lowering levees (controlled breaching)

– Creating friction (LWD, Drop structures, check dams

– Management of larger dams to mimic seasonal flows

– Detention / retention

– Underground storage

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Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural

• Nonstructural Approaches: Low-Impact Development– upper and middle watershed

can be developed / managed to flatten hydrograph and maintain upstream storage and infiltration.

– Lower watershed and Floodplain can be developed such that post development hydrograph equals or improves predevelopment conditions.

Approaches: Structural and Nonstructural

• Case Study: Buck Hollow River, Oregon– The Buck Hollow watershed is highly susceptible to erosion.– 130 years of grazing and farming have deteriorated the

watershed. – Water was needed by local ranchers and farmers and salmon

• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for

enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-

enhancement strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the

resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

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Capabilities – Approaches and Tools

Basic Tools1. Police Powers 2. Capital Improvements3. Plan Persuade -- provide information to facilitate action

Themes1. Little acceptance, little action 2. Police Powers only work in environment of change3. Capital Improvements only work in an environment of need4. Private initiatives have greatest impact.5. Government can provide leadership.6. Local government / property rights / water rights can detract from a big

picture watershed based approach

Police Powers

– 14th Amendment: “…nor shall any State deprive any person of life, liberty, or property, without due process of law”

– 10th Amendment: The federal government has the power to regulate only matters specifically delegated to it by the Constitution. • The Commerce Clause: (Article I, Section 8, Clause 3) of the United

States Constitution, empower the United States Congress, "To regulate Commerce … among the several States, and with the Indian Tribes.”

– 5th Amendment: says, “…nor shall private property be taken for public use without just compensation

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LOCAL GOVERNMENT POWERS

REGULATION:

Building Codes

Zoning Ordinances

Subdivision Ordinances

Floodplain Ordinances

Critical Area Management

ACQUISITION/INCENTIVES

Fee Simple Acquisition

Easements

TDRs

TAXATIONPreferential TaxationSpecial AssessmentsExactions

SPENDINGPublic Buildings and FacilitiesCapital Improvements Programming

Police Powers

Property rights

Land ownership rights are sometimes referred to as a bundle of sticks with each stick representing a right such as the right to possess, sell, lease property, develop, mine ore, etc. But not all rights out of the bundle held by the owner are owned by the owner. In the United States, no owner ever holds the fullest possible bundle.

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Property rights

Regulations that “go too far” are takings

Public Purpose Test:Regulations must serve a legitimate public interest.

Relationship Test:Regulations must have a strong relationship to goals sought.

Economic impact:Some economic benefit must remain to the owner.

Water Rights

– In those areas where rainfall, and thus water, is relatively abundant (typically east of the Mississippi River) riparianwater rights are generally in force.

– A riparian owner is permitted to use all the water it needs for its “proper purposes,” returning to the stream all that is not consumed, without liability to downstream riparian owners. Individual states, especially courts, have defined what constitute proper purposes, and statutes in each state must be consulted for specifics. Usually, what is proper consists of uses for individual households, farms, municipalities, and businesses.

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Ownership

Land and Property Acquisition

ADDITIONAL TOOLS

• Fee-simple Acquisition of Undeveloped Land

• Advance Site Acquisition (Land Banking)

• Purchase Sellback/Leaseback

• Purchase Option (Right of First Refusal)

• Sword of Damocles Provision

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Plans and Planning

– Comprehensive land use

– Hazard Mitigation plans

Building Standards

– Special building standards

– Building codes

Development Regulations

– Zoning ordinances

– Overly zones

– Bonus and incentive zoning

– Performance or impact zoning

– Planned Unit Development (PUD)

– Subdivision ordinance

Information and Community Participation

– Public information

– Disclosure

Environmental Management

– Wetland protection

– Stormwater management

Public Facilities Policies

– Capital improvements plan

Land and Property Acquisition

– Acquisition of land

– Structural buy-outs

– Relocation of existing dev.

– Acquisition of dev. rights and easements

– Transfer of development rights

Taxation and Fiscal Policies

– Preferential (reduced) taxation

– Impact taxes or special assessments

TDRs

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Capabilities (Risk/Opportunity)

Approaches: (Adaptation)Create balanced safe to fail

communities

1. Prevent: Detention2. Protect: Strengthen

levees, dams …3. Accommodate: Wet

floodproofing…4. Retreat: Move critical

structures off / above the floodplain …

Tools:• Historically the three main agencies

concerned with flood management have been:– USACE: Managing Change, Often with

Big Footprints– Natural Resources Conservation

Services: Smaller Footprints, but extensive cumulative effects

– National Flood Insurance Program: Focusing on the Effects of Change

• Others:– No Adverse Impact (NAI)• NFIP/ Biological Opinion• Insurance (excess coverage)• USACE advanced measures• Businesses / home owners informed of

Contingency Planning needs.• Purchase / transfer development rights

Our Built Environment can be the Change (Hazard)

Location, Frequency, Severity and Timing

Our Built Environment can ALSObe impacted. We need to focus on the:

• Begin with the basin. Landscape scale .

• Exploit (+) the Biological Landscape

– Conservation, rehabilitation and restoration

– A rule of thumb --complexity and diversity

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Reducing risks to assets and values

Examples of risk reduction methods focusing on

• The basin

• Channels, floodplains and riparian areas

• Biological Landscape– Conservation, rehabilitation and restoration

– A rule of thumb -- complexity and diversity

• Green Belt Movement International – a case study in addressing a hazard

Live with flooding

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Elk: the primary prey of wolves. Many fear that wolves will decimate the Yellowstone elk population. Source: Oregon State University

The gray wolf. The Yellowstone wolves were removed in 1926 and reintroduced in 1995. Source: Oregon State University.

Wolves

Green Belt Movement

Wangari Maathai

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Risks /Opportunities

• Floodprone areas not fully developed

• Market forces will result in redevelopment

• Change in how land owners view flooding

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Floodplain Management: Adapting to a Changing Climate

Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting

Adapting to a Changing Climate

1. Welcome 2. Polling – (individual task)3. Round 1 (Group): Determine Problem and Reporting -- (Team

task) 4. Developing a Risk / Opportunity Model -- (Lecture with Q and A)5. Understanding Climate change Science -- (Lecture with Q and A)6. Break7. Identifying Climate Change Impacts -- ( Lecture with Q and A)8. Round 2: Define Risks and Reporting -- (Team task)9. Identifying Capabilities -- ( Lecture with Q and A)10. Round 3: Identify Capabilities and Reporting -- (Team task)11. Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

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1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?

3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?

5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

Six Step Process

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Adapting to a Changing Climate:

Discussing Strategies and Wrap-up (Discussion by all)

Risks and Opportunities

Risks and Opportunities(Result of change, effect, and capability)

Focus on changePrimary and secondary

Manipulate the effectBeneficial or adverse

Capabilities

Hazard of disturbance Vulnerability or exposureStrategies made up of approaches and tools

Location Systems: Money

Frequency Built environment Power

Severity Natural environment Timing

Timing

Resiliency: The ultimate goal: being able to tolerate (benefit from) change.

Disaster: Realized Risk Benefit Realized Opportunity

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• We’ll define a strategy as:

– package of approaches, and tools

– applied over time,

– to achieve an objective.

For floodplains, most strategies are attempts to manage a changing river within the context of a fixed built environment.

Strategies

Strategies: Work with, Not against Rivers

• Flood Management Strategies– Solutions that restore, conserve, or enhance beneficial

values

– Science-driven policy, not policy-driven science

– Flexibility in approaches

– Solutions that promote resiliency

– System-oriented outlook

– An inclusive process that is, to the fullest extent possible, fair to all

– Solutions with greater, long-term benefit

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Choosing the Best Strategy

• Choosing a Strategy• Managing the Change• Decision-Making Tools

– Scientific Method– National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA)– Benefit-Cost Analysis

• Tool Sheets– Using the Tool Sheets– Assessing Flood Characteristic– Assessing the Effects of Flooding– Assessing the Effects on Others– Assessing Capabilities

Strategies: Work with, Not against Rivers

• Case Study: Flooding of Interstate 5 in Washington– The Chehalis River, flowing through several counties and cities has a history of

flooding. Despite this, several of the communities have made little effort torestrict further development on the floodplain. Flooding has becomegenerally more severe.

– The Chehalis is an important watershed for fisheries.– The demand for water has also increased within the watershed, thus stressing

water-rights issues

• The Six Questions revisited:1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies

available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

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Six Step Process + ONE

1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?2. What are the apparent risks or opportunities for enhancement?3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement

strategies available?4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the

resource?5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce? 6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?7. The Decision:

– Do your homework and analysis, but don’t forget to use yourintuition. Remember that involving all stakeholders will result inmore support for the strategy, and may give you ideas that youwouldn’t have thought of.

What’s Next?

• The Six Questions (Plus One) reviewed:– 1. What values or assets do you want to protect or enhance?

» What’s important to you?– 2. What are the apparent risks of opportunities for enhancement?

» How is it being threatened or how can you improve it?– 3. What is the range of risk-reduction or opportunity-enhancement strategies available?

» What natural, engineered, or societal systems can be used to develop strategies toprotect or enhance your values or assets?

– 4. How well does each strategy reduce the risk or enhance the resource?» Do all the possibilities actually protect you or enhance the resource over the long

term?– 5. What other risks or benefits does each strategy introduce?

» Do your solutions bring up new problems or provide other benefits?– 6. Are the costs imposed by each strategy too high?

» Is your strategy worth the cost?– 7. The Decision

» Do your homework and analysis, but don’t forget to use your intuition. Rememberthat involving all stakeholders will result in more support for the strategy, and maygive you ideas that you wouldn’t have thought of.

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Questions and Answers