promotin g inclusive growth through the 4ps
DESCRIPTION
Celia M. Reyes slides during the GDN 14th Annual Global Development Conference, June 19-21, 2013 ADB, ManilaTRANSCRIPT
Pantawid Pamilyang Pilipino Program
Celia M. ReyesGDN 14th Annual Global Development Conference
June 19-21, 2013ADB, Manila
(4Ps)
Promoting Inclusive Growth through the
Outline of the Presentation
Trends in growth, poverty and inequalityEconomic participation of the poorAssessment of 4PsConclusions and Recommendations
Based on PIDS DP 2013-09 and Chapter 4 of the EPM 2012
Promoting Inclusive Growth Through the 4Ps
Inclusive Growth
Allows participation and contribution by all members of society, with particular emphasis on the ability of the poor and disadvantaged to participate in growth (ADB)
The main instrument for a sustainable and inclusive growth is productive employment (WB)
Recent economic growth has been remarkable
Source of basic data: NIA, NSCB
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
8.0
9.0
3.0
-0.6
0.3
2.1
4.44.7
5.85.2
-0.6
3.1
4.4
2.9
3.6
5.0
6.7
4.85.2
6.6
4.2
1.1
7.6
3.9
6.6
GDP Growth rate
GDP Growth rate
1991 2003 2006 2009 20120.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
40.0
33.1
24.9 26.4 26.5
28.7881328.5968527.91893
Poverty incidence among population (%), 1991-2012
Annual Estimates Semestral Estimates
Source: NSCB
Yet slow progress in poverty reduction
Inequality has declined slightly at the national level; inequality in the urban
areas went down but it increased in the rural areas
Source: Celia M. Reyes, Aubrey D. Tabuga, Ronina D. Asis and Maria Blessila G. Datu, 2012, Poverty and Agriculture in the Philippines: Trends in Income Poverty and Distribution (PIDS DP 2012-09)
1991 1994 1997 2000 2003 2006 20090.35
0.37
0.39
0.41
0.43
0.45
0.47
0.49
0.51
0.53
0.55
0.480285860000001
0.47350339
0.518252629999999 0.50450606999
9998 0.487070600000001 0.483749360.47428616000
0001
0.473618920000001 0.46020763
0.485046910000001 0.47819422
0.45133433 0.4496091 0.44617547
0.394094620000001
0.3942411
0.419022030.42553498000
0001
0.42883369 0.42955949 0.42775612
All Areas Urban Rural
Gini coeffi-cient
Majority of the poor workers are at most elementary undergraduate
Poorest Second Third Richest05
1015202530354045
13
86
3
44
33
22
13
1 26
26
No grade completed Some elementary Elementary graduateSome high school High school graduate Some college
%
Source of basic data: Matched files of FIES 2009 and LFS January 2010, NSO
Educational attainment by income quartile (25 years old and over), 2009
Where do workers with elementary education get employed?
Agriculture, hunting &
forestry; 49.8
Wholesale & re-tail trade; 13.4
Fishing; 7.2
Private household ac-
tivities; 6.4
Manufacturing; 5.9
Construction; 5.6
Transport, stor-age & commu-nications; 5.1
Other community, social & personal service activities; 1.9
Public administration & defense; 1.8
Hotels & restaurants; 1.2Mining & quarrying; 0.8
Real estate, renting & business activ-ities; 0.4 Electricity, gas & water supply; 0.1
Education; 0.1
Health & social work; 0.1
Source of Basic Data: LFS (July 2011), NSO
Average daily wage of high school graduate is 45% higher than an elementary undergraduate
No grade completed
Elemen-tary un-dergrad-
uate
Elemen-tary
graduate
High school under-
graduate
High school
graduate
College under-
graduate
College graduate
Post-graduate
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
141 169 186 202246
335
598
1,137PhpAverage daily wage rate of wage/salary workers by educational attainment, 2011
Source of basic data: LFS (July 2011), NSO
Proportion of children attending school, by income group and by age group, 2007
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest0.0
20.0
40.0
60.0
80.0
100.0
120.0
86.691.7 93.4 95.1 96.7 96.1 97.7 98.6 98.7 99.2
80.686.0 87.2 89.2 91.9 93.2 95.7 97.2 98.7 98.4
47.9 50.453.7 55.3
57.9 60.966.8
73.580.7
90.5
6 to 11 12 to 14 15 to 18
Source of basic data: APIS 2007, NSO
Features of the Philippine CCTObjectives:
◦Social Assistance – provide cash assistance to alleviate immediate needs (short-term poverty alleviation); and
◦Social Development – to break the intergenerational poverty cycle through investments in human capital
Features of the Philippine CCTTarget families: Extremely poor families
with children aged 0 to 14Components: Health and EducationHealth: P6,000 annually (P500 per
month)/familyEducation: P3,000/child/school year
(P300/child/month for 10 months); up to a max. of 3 children in each family
Features of the Philippine CCTCriteria for selection of beneficiaries:
◦Residents of poorest municipalities;◦Households whose economic condition is
equal to or below the provincial poverty threshold;
◦Households that have children 0-14 years old and/or have a pregnant woman at the time of assessment; and
◦Households that agree to meet conditions specified in the program.
Features of the Philippine CCTThe poorest households in the selected municipalities are identified through a Proxy-Means Test.
The DSWD selects the beneficiaries through the National Household Targeting System for Poverty Reduction (NHTS-PR).
4Ps Targeting
NHTS-PR identified 5.2 million poor families, way above the estimated 3.9 million poor families in 2009. Including all these families will lead to even higher leakage rate.
On-demand system (families who claim eligibility but are not selected have to go through the on-demand system); they are entered into the database of eligible beneficiaries in the NHTS-PR; there is a lag before they can be accommodated into the 4Ps database of beneficiaries
Features of the Philippine CCT Conditionalities:
1. Pregnant women must avail of pre- and post-natal care and be attended during childbirth by a trained health professional;
2. Parents must attend family development sessions;3. 0-5 year old children must receive regular
preventive health check-ups and vaccines; 4. 3-5 year old children must attend day care or
preschool classes at least 85% of the time;5. 6-14 year old children must enrol in elementary or
high school and must attend at least 85% of the time.
6. 6-14 years old children must receive de-worming pills twice a year
4Ps has been scaled up too rapidly
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 20140.000
1.000
2.000
3.000
4.000
5.000
6.000
0.0060.34
0.631.0
2.3
3.13.8
5.2
Number of 4Ps families (in millions), Philippines, 2007-2014
Source of basic data: DSWD
4Ps is the biggest social protection program
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
- 5,000
10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000
50 299 5,000
10,000
21,194
39,450 44,250
Source of data: DSWD
4Ps Budget allocation, in million pesos
4Ps Targeting
Based on the APIS 2011, 4Ps beneficiaries comprise 6.4% of the total families. Over 82% of all 4Ps beneficiaries are rural families.
Only 70.81% of the 4Ps beneficiaries in 2011 are income poor (after taking out the cash grant). ◦ Leakage rate is 29% (Fernandez and Olfindo finds that 72%
of the beneficiaries belong to the bottom 20 % of the population)
Among the 4Ps beneficiaries who are poor, only 7.2% became non-poor when given cash transfers.
So far, the 4Ps has already reached 20.32% of the country’s total poor families (exclusion rate is 79.7%)
4Ps beneficiaries include non-poor
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Poorest 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 Richest0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35 32.83
24.96
17.08
11.92
6.833.5
1.430.8400000000000010.41 0.21
Perc
en
t (%
)
Distribution of 4Ps families by income decile, % to total
Administrative cost of the program is substantial
Budget category 2011 2012
Total 21,194 39,450 Cash transfer/grant to beneficiaries 17,138 35,453 Implementation support* 4,056 3,997
Trainings 1,625 703 Salaries and allowances for 1,800 new personnel 716 1,877 Bank service fee 171 346 Information, education and advocacy materials; printing of manuals and booklets 649 252 Capital outlay 218 133 Monitoring, evaluation and administration support 677 686
Share of cash transfer to total budget 80.9% 89.9%Source: DSWD, available online http://pantawid.dswd.gov.ph/index.php/pantawid-pamilya-financials
Share of Cash Transfer to Total Budget
IMPACTS OF 4PS
School attendance falls below 90% after age 13
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
102030405060708090
100 92.698.0 98.4 98.9 98.8 98.3 96.4 93.6 89.7
77.5
60.0
43.633.8
Age
Perc
en
t (%
)
Proportion of children in 4Ps families who are attending school, by age
Comparison of school attendance rates of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families, by age group, 2011
Age group 4Ps Non-4Ps DifferenceSignificance
(α=0.05)
Aged 6-14 96.3 92.8 3.5 significant
Aged 6-11 97.8 95.0 2.8 significant
Aged 12-14 93.1 89.0 4.1 significant
Aged 15-18 57.1 54.3 2.8not
significantNote: Figures are estimates from the Nearest Neighbor (1), or One-to-one, matching with replacement.Source of basic data: Matched files of APIS 2011 and LFS July 2011, NSO
Lack of personal interest is the most common reason for not attending school
Finished schooling
Too young to go to school
Problem with school record
Others
Cannot cope with school work
Marriage
Employment/looking for work
Lack of personal interest
0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 450.5
0.2
0.2
0.7
0.5
0.4
1.9
1.4
1.3
3.0
4.5
4.5
15.4
30.9
34.5
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.7
2.9
3.9
15.7
24.8
41.4
Reasons for not attending school among children in 4Ps families (aged 6-18)
4Ps Non-4Ps
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Older children drop out of school to work to augment family income
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
100 92.196.9 96.5 95.7 94.4 92.6 88.7 84.875.2
63.148.4
33.624.3
0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.54 0.91 2.52 5.3914.88
26.1538.29
46.10
out-of-school, working studying, not working
Age
%
Source of basic data: Matched files of APIS 2011 and LFS July 2011, NSO
Proportion of children in matched 4Ps families who are attending school and/or working, by single year of age, 2011
Proportion of children in 4Ps families who are attending school or working, by sex and by single year of age, 2011
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
10092.596.7 95.6 95.4 92.490.3 84.580.968.1
55.338.3
29.816.6
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 4.2 8.5
22.1 36.4
50.259.2
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
%Boys, 4Ps
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
10091.797.1 97.5 96.0 96.5 95.2 93.1 88.7
82.470.2
60.1
38.1 33.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.28.3
14.224.2
29.8
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
% Girls, 4Ps
The 4Ps program leads to an increase in the school participation rate by 3.5 percentage points among children aged 6-14 years old.
The 4Ps program does not influence the participation of children beyond the age coverage of the program. There is no significant difference between the school participation rate of children aged 15-18 in 4Ps families and non-4Ps children (using matched samples).
The current coverage of 4Ps to 6- to 14-year-old children is intended to enable the child to finish elementary.
School attendance rate is lower for older children than for younger ones.
The gap between the richest households and the poorest ones is much wider for the older children than for the younger ones.
The average daily wage of someone who has finished high school is 45 percent higher than the wage of someone who has reached some years in elementary.
Education builds up human capital gradually. Therefore, sustained investment is required to realize significant results.
Conclusions
Recommendations
To increase employability of the poor in higher productivity and faster growing sectors, extend the Pantawid Pamilya program or harmonize with other government programs to ensure that the children finish at least high school.◦Will lead to more inclusive growth and increase potential earnings of 4Ps children by at least 40%
Recommendations
Given the fiscal burden of extending the program, it becomes more important to improve targeting scheme◦Reduce leakage rate by updating the PMT model
◦Reduce exclusion rate by moving away from strategy of focusing on “pockets of poverty”
◦Focus on the chronic poor; transient poor may require programs other than CCT
Recommendations
Improve program implementation◦Lessen lag in including beneficiaries identified through on-demand system
◦Monthly disbursement of cash transfer
◦Use of regular savings account for 4Ps
Reduce administrative cost by adopting unified data collection system for NHTS-PR; will also reduce potential response bias
Recommendations
Pilot test changes in the program before scaling up◦Bigger grants to children in high school?
◦Grants when children graduate from high school?
◦Maximum number of years in the program?
Thank you!
www.pids.gov.ph
Distribution of 4Ps and poor families, by region, share to total (%)
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.010.8
10.09.0
7.4
7.16.4 6.3 6.3 5.9 5.8 5.7
4.9 4.6 4.2
2.4 1.71.4
6.8
9.9
8.27.1
7.7
5.5
3.1
7.6
5.7 6.1
10.6
4.74.0
5.2
2.7 3.4
1.8
Share to total poor families, FIES 2009
Sources of basic data: DSWD and FIES 2009, NSO
Various Implementation Issues
Delays in transferring the cash grants (currently every 2 months)
Cash card system (Cash card system - used for merely transferring; does not work like a regular ATM savings account; grantees do not have the option to keep money in the bank)
Grants are still distributed in cash (ex. Naujan, Oriental Mindoro) Venue: Municipal hall next to a tiangge
Comparison of school attendance rates of children in 4Ps and Non–4Ps families, by single year of age
Age 4Ps Non-4Ps6 92.6 92.07 98.0 97.28 98.4 98.49 98.9 98.2
10 98.8 98.111 98.3 97.812 96.4 97.013 93.6 93.914 89.7 90.715 77.5 86.216 60.0 71.317 43.6 58.718 33.8 48.2
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Age 4Ps Non-4Ps
6 92.9 87.47 97.6 95.78 98.9 97.29 98.8 97.1
10 99.0 97.111 97.9 96.612 96.6 95.113 94.1 89.214 88.2 84.115 76.5 78.216 59.1 59.517 42.6 41.518 31.0 30.5
Comparison of school attendance rates of children in 4Ps and Non-4Ps families belonging to bottom 40%, by single year of age
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Comparison of school attendance rates of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families, by single year of age, 2011
Sample 4Ps Non-4Ps Difference Significance (α=0.05)
Aged 6 91.2 83.5 7.7 significantAged 7 98.2 95.5 2.7 significantAged 8 98.4 96.9 1.6 significantAged 9 98.7 96.0 2.7 significantAged 10 98.6 96.3 2.3 significantAged 11 98.1 95.8 2.3 significantAged 12 96.6 94.1 2.5 significantAged 13 93.3 89.3 4.0 significantAged 14 89.5 81.6 7.9 significantAged 15 76.9 76.7 0.3 not significantAged 16 59.7 56.5 3.2 not significantAged 17 44.2 43.8 0.4 not significantAged 18 34.0 32.0 2.0 not significant
Notes: Figures are estimates from the Nearest Neighbor (3) matching with replacementSource of basic data: Matched files of APIS 2011 and LFS July 2011, NSO
Proportion of poor, 4Ps and non-4Ps families who experienced hunger, 2011
Group Percent
Poor 15.9
4Ps 14.4
Matched 4Ps 14.7
Matched Non-4Ps 12.8
Note: 4Ps and non-4Ps families with children aged 6-18 who are attending school were matched using Propensity Score Matching (One-to-one matching with replacement).Source of basic data: Matched files of APIS 2011 and LFS July 2011, NSO
Frequency of experiencing hunger among poor, 4Ps and non-4Ps families, 2011
Frequency Poor 4PsMatched 4Ps
Matched Non-4Ps
At least once in each week
31.7 28.1 30.6 35.3
At least once in each month
40.4 39.8 38.6 37.8
At least once in three months
27.9 32.1 30.8 26.9
Note: 4Ps and non-4Ps families with children aged 6-18 who are attending school were matched using Propensity Score Matching (One-to-one matching with replacement).Source of basic data: Matched files of APIS 2011 and LFS July 2011, NSO
Proportion of children in 4Ps families who are attending school, by type of family, 2011
AgeProportion of children aged 6-18 in 4Ps
families3 or less 4 or more
6 92.2 93.17 98.6 97.08 99.4 97.19 98.9 98.810 99.1 98.511 98.2 98.312 96.6 96.113 93.7 93.514 91.2 87.915 77.8 77.216 62.5 58.217 43.9 43.418 32.0 35.0
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Distribution of children aged 6-14 not attending school in 4Ps families by family size, % to total
Share of Children
Age Smaller families(at most 3 eligible children)
Larger families(4 or more eligible
children)All
6 19.4 18.5 19.17 6.8 3.9 5.88 3.1 6.9 4.49 3.0 3.2 3.110 3.5 3.8 3.611 5.6 5.0 5.412 10.9 8.9 10.213 21.2 17.8 20.114 26.6 32.1 28.5All 100 100 100
Source of basic data: APIS 2011, NSO
Proportion of children in matched 4Ps and non-4Ps families who are attending school and/or working, by sex and by single year of age, 2011
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
10092.596.7 95.6 95.4 92.490.3 84.580.968.1
55.338.3
29.816.6
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.8 1.5 4.2 8.5
22.1 36.4
50.259.2
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
%Boys, 4Ps
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
10091.797.197.596.096.595.293.188.7
82.470.2
60.1
38.133.9
0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.8 2.28.3
14.224.2
29.8
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
% Girls, 4Ps
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
20
40
60
80
10090.896.497.196.4 96.295.293.087.683.6
75.561.1
49.438.8
0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 1.0 2.4 4.79.5
18.626.7
37.7
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
% Boys, Non-4Ps
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 180
102030405060708090
10092.897.197.897.596.996.795.893.390.685.1
68.757.2
48.5
0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.3 2.88.9
14.3 20.3
out-of-school, working studying, not workingAge
%Girls, Non-4Ps