potashcorp - scotiabank agriculture & fertilizer conference

27
PotashCorp.com Scotiabank Conference September 2013 Wayne Brownlee Executive Vice-President & CFO

Upload: potashcorp

Post on 19-Jun-2015

2.281 views

Category:

Investor Relations


5 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp.com

Scotiabank ConferenceSeptember 2013

Wayne Brownlee

Executive Vice-President & CFO

Page 2: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#2

Page 3: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp Overview

Slide#3

World’s largest fertilizer producer by capacity; #1 in potash, #3 in nitrogen and phosphate.

Global leader in potash; nutrient with highest margins and significant barriers to entry.

Canadian potash operations and strategic investments position us to benefit from growth markets.

Focused world-class nitrogen and phosphate businesses help provide earnings stability.

Page 4: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

• Strong cash flow• Cash flow from operating activities of $3.2B in 2012

• Record six-month cash flow from operating activities in first-half 2013 ($1.9B)

• Well positioned potash business• Low-cost supplier to key markets

• Potential to significantly grow sales volume and reduce per-tonne operating costs

• 88 percent complete CDN $8.3B potash expansion program (~CDN $1B remaining)

• Significantly lower per-tonne expansion cost relative to many competitor projects

• Strong balance sheet affords good flexibility• Low leverage relative to historical levels (Net debt to EBITDA)

• Access to $3.5B liquidity (commercial paper/credit facility) at low borrowing rates

• Proven track record of returning capital to shareholders• Dividend increase of 950 percent since January 2011

• Recently announced $2B share repurchase authorization

PotashCorp Highlights

Slide#4

Page 5: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

The Fundamentals

Page 6: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: Fertecon, CRU, AMEC PotashCorp

Limited Number of Producers; High Costs to Entry Relative to Other Nutrients

Potash Maintains Unique Structural Characteristics

1 Estimated time and cost for a conventional greenfield mine in Saskatchewan2 Ammonia/urea complex3 Phosphate rock mine, sulfuric acid plant, phosphoric acid plant and DAP/MAP granulation plant4 Includes rail, utility systems, port facilities and, if applicable, cost of deposit

Slide#6

Page 7: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Crop Production Challenges Remain in 2013

Continued Pressure on Crop Yields and Productivity

US corn/soybean conditions weakened in mid-August, supporting crop prices.

FSU crop production and exports expected to increase in 2013. Expect high yield variability due

to volatile weather and low soil fertility.

Expect increase in Brazilian soybean acreage, but reduction in corn acreage due to adverse planting weather. Lower global sugar prices

partially offset by a weaker Real.

Good summer growing conditions helped

European crop recover from slow start.

Regional drought and floods likely to impact China’s crop production. Expect

record corn imports and large wheat imports in 2013.

Good monsoon rains support crop prospects in most regions of India. Government recently proposed $20 billion annual food subsidy program. Good moisture for rice and corn in

most of Thailand and Philippines. Moisture conditions reported as

adequate for Indonesia’s oil palm.

Favorable crop prospects for most regions of Canada.

Page 8: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: IPNI, Bloomberg, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

* Based on long-term yield trials

Malaysia Oil Palm

US Corn Brazil Soybean

India Wheat

China Rice

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20Sep-13 5-Year Average

Fertilizer Cost as Percentage of Crop Revenue*

Malaysia Oil Palm

US Corn Brazil Soybean

India Wheat

China Rice

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Yield Attributed to Fertilizer* - Percent

Significant Economic Incentive for Increased Fertilizer Usage

Fertilizer Impact on Crop Yield and Return

Page 9: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012E

2013F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Million Tonnes KCl

Long-term Potash Demand Growth Potential Slower Demand Periods Have Historically Been Followed by Robust Growth

6.5% CAGR

5.3% CAGR

POT Sales Volume CAGR: 7%

POT Sales Volume CAGR: 15%

Slide#9

North America: The need to address declining potassium soil levels provides growth potential for this traditionally stable market

Latin America: Additional acreage and increased fertilizer intensity expected to support strong future demand

Other Asia: Acreage expansion opportunity for potash-intensive oil palm remains high in Indonesia

China: An increasing reliance on grain imports and low potassium levels expected to support future demand growth

India: The requirement to address lagging crop yields and quality issues is expected to drive a more proactive approach to crop fertility

Africa and Other: Significant medium to long-term growth prospects given arable land expansion potential and nutrient deficient soils

Page 10: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Potash

Page 11: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

42%

PotashCorp Rest of World

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Company Reports, PotashCorp

Best Positioned to Respond to Future Potash Demand Growth

PotashCorp’s Sales Growth Opportunity

Percentage of New Global Operational Capability (2012-2016F)*

* Based on public filings and PotashCorp’s estimates of global operational capability

PotashCorp Volume Growth Potential

2013EProduction*

2015EOperational Capability

0

5

10

15

20

Million Tonnes

Slide#11

* Based on July 26, 2013 guidance

Page 12: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

47.7%

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp

Anticipate Increasing Canpotex Entitlement and New Brunswick Capacity

PotashCorp’s Sales Growth Opportunity

Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement(First-half 2013)

PotashCorp Other Canpotex Members

Estimated Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement(2015E)*

* Canpotex allocation anticipated to grow beyond second-half 2013 entitlement between 2013-2015 with remaining PotashCorp allocation runs and PotashCorp ‘sestimates for other producers

Slide#12

53% - 56%

Page 13: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports

Competitor Greenfield Projects1

PotashCorp’s CAPEX Spending Largely Complete; Competitors Facing Rising Costs

PotashCorp’s Capacity and Cost Opportunity

88%

12%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending (2002-

2015)*

Original Estimate Current Estimate0

5

10

15

20

Billions - US$

129% Increase

1 Greenfield projects include: K+S (Legacy) ; Eurochem (Volgograd); Vale (Rio Colorado)2 Estimate based on publically available project cost disclosure from current project developer or, in certain cases, previous project developer3 Estimate based on publically available comments in presentations or transcripts from current project developer

2 3

* As at June 30, 2013

Slide#13

Page 14: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

US$ Per Tonne

Potential To Significantly Reduce Cost of Production Moving Forward

PotashCorp Cost of Production Opportunity

Source: PotashCorp

Potential to reduce costs by ~25%

• Potential volume improvement: New capability expected to provide opportunity to reduce per-tonne fixed costs with rising operating rates

• Potential production optimization: Improvements in cost given greatest percentage of new capacity to come online at lower costs mines

• Potential cost optimization: Canpotex run costs and brine inflow issues at New Brunswick abate as new capability comes on-line

2013 Cash CostEstimate*

PotentialPost-expansion

Cash Cost**

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

* Based on July 26, 2013 guidance

** Estimated based on operating rates of ~85%+

Slide#14

Page 15: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Competitively Positioned To Most Key Markets

PotashCorp Delivered Cost Opportunity

Source: OMS

• Canpotex offshore advantage: World-class transportation and distribution infrastructure, including specialized, fast-turn rail to West Coast export terminals and long-term, cost-effective ocean vessel arrangements. Shorter relative sailing times to China and Southeast Asia.

• PotashCorp domestic/offshore advantage: Proximity to Canada/US markets via rail provides delivered cost advantage over most offshore producers. World-class domestic logistics and distribution system provides ability to deliver to inland warehouses in timely and cost-effective manner to meet just-in-time customer needs. New Brunswick facility provides shorter relative sailing times to Latin America.

China India Brazil Malaysia

Vancouver 17 30 28 22

Saint John 35 26 16 32

Israel* 24 10 23 16

Jordan* 24 10 23 16

Germany 37 22 19 28

Russia 38 23 21 30

Ocean Freight Sailing Days

* Based on equity ownership position – 28% of APC (Jordan); 14% of ICL (Israel)

Slide#15

Page 16: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Nitrogen

Page 17: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: PotashCorp, Green Markets

Year-over-Year* Realized Price Change

Portfolio of Products Provides Less Exposure to More Volatile Urea Market

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

36%

21%

43%

Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN

2013 YTD* Nitrogen Product Mix (Sales Volume)

Ammonia Solutions/NA/AN Urea

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

Percentage Change

* Represents first-six month period of respective year

Slide#17

Page 18: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: PotashCorp

Ammonia Capacity*

New Ammonia Capacity Adds Margin Growth Potential

PotashCorp Nitrogen Profile

2012 2013F 20150.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5 Trinidad Augusta Lima Geismar

Million Tonnes

* All estimated capacity amounts as at beginning of year

Highlights

• Geismar Expansion: New capacity brought on-stream in early 2013, expected to add approximately ~$100M of incremental gross margin in 2013

• Lima Expansion: $190 million expansion anticipated to add additional ammonia (+88K st/year) and urea capacity (+80K st/year) by late 2015. New capacity at Lima also anticipated to help grow higher-margin DEF sales potential and supply lower cost ammonia to Aurora

Slide#18

Page 19: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp: Well Positioned in Phosphate

Page 20: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports

Q2-

09

Q3-

09

Q4-

09

Q1-

10

Q2-

10

Q3-

10

Q4-

10

Q1-

11

Q2-

11

Q3-

11

Q4-

11

Q1-

12

Q2-

12

Q3-

12

Q4-

12

Q1-

13

Q2-

13

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800 Fertilizer Feed & Industrial

PotashCorp Average Realized Sales Price

Industrial and Feed Products Enhance Stability in Phosphate

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

PotashCorp*

Mosaic** Agrium CF0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%Feed & Industrial Fertilizer

Phosphate Product Mix (Sales Volume)

US$/tonne

* Based on 2013 YTD sales volumes

** Mosaic’s percentage based on feed sales volume relative to total phosphate sales volume as publicly disclosed for the most recent four fiscal quarters

Slide#20

Page 21: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Source: PotashCorp

Gross Margin Contribution by Product Category

Optimizing Gross Margin Opportunities

PotashCorp Phosphate Profile

Fertilizer Feed & Industrial0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160 2012 YTD* 2013 YTD*

US$ - Millions

Highlights

• Rock Costs: Improved mining conditions, production and opportunity projects are expected to result in lower costs through balance of 2013

• Sulfur Costs: Sourcing optimization opportunities expected to reduce total delivered costs to sites

• Ammonia Costs: • Shifting more production from solid

fertilizer to higher-margin products, where possible

• Lima expansion anticipated to provide competitive delivered cost supply to Aurora

* Represents first-six months of respective year

Slide#21

Page 22: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp: Creating Shareholder Value

Page 23: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Strong Cash Flow + Reduced Capital Spending = Greater Financial Flexibility

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000 Cash Provided by Operating ActivitiesCapital Spending

US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

* As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010; 2003 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian Generally Accepted Accounting Principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2003 to 2009 may not be comparable to 2010 , 2011 and 2012.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000US$ Millions

** Excluding capitalized interest, major repairs and maintenance and Lima expansion

Annual Cash Provided by Operating Activities* PotashCorp Capital Spending**

Slide#23

Page 24: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

Q2-13

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.03

$0.35

Dividend* per Share – US$

* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.

Source: PotashCorp

950% Increase

$2 Billion Share Repurchase

ProgramAnnounced July 24, 2013 (5% of outstanding shares through July

2014)

POT AGU MOS CF IPI0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

4.4%

2.3% 2.3%

0.8%

0.0%

Percent Yield

Slide#24

As at September 12, 2013

Page 25: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

PotashCorp’s Potential

Slide#25

Well Positioned Company

2013F Production

2013EOperationalCapability

2014EOperationalCapability

2015EOperationalCapability

2013F Potential Post-expansion

~25% Reduction

2013F 2014F 2015F Post Ex-pansion

~$1.5B

~$0.9B

$0.35 per share*

1 Capability to significantly grow potash sales volumes

2 Potential to reduce potash per-tonne cash costs

3 Declining Capex allows for free cash flow potential

4 Stable, sustained dividend

~$1.2B$0.6-$0.8B

* As at September 16, 2013

~100% Increase

Page 26: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

There’s more online:

PotashCorp.comVisit us online

Facebook.com/PotashCorpFind us on Facebook

Twitter.com/PotashCorpFollow us on Twitter

Thank you

Click icon to add picture

Page 27: PotashCorp - Scotiabank Agriculture & Fertilizer Conference

Try Our Overview Site: www.potashcorp.com/overview

Looking For More Industry and Company Information?

Explore our Key Markets… Find Data on Key Crops… Learn about our Company