potashcorp citi 2017 basic materials conference
TRANSCRIPT
PotashCorp.com
Citi 2017 Basic Materials Conference
November 29, 2017
Jochen TilkPresident and CEO
Forward-looking Statements
Slide #2
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or “forward-looking information”
(within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be identified by
expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as “should,” “could,”
“expect,” “forecast,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions
as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and
opportunities, including the completion of the proposed merger of equals with Agrium, the disposition of our ownership positions in APC, ICL and SQM, and effective tax
rates. While we consider these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking
statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from
actual results or events. Several factors could cause our actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but
not limited to, the following: our proposed merger of equals transaction with Agrium, including the failure to satisfy all required conditions, including required regulatory
approvals, or to satisfy or obtain waivers with respect to all other closing conditions in a timely manner and on favorable terms or at all; the occurrence of any event,
change or other circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the arrangement agreement; certain costs that we may incur in connection with the proposed
merger of equals; certain restrictions in the arrangement agreement on our ability to take action outside the ordinary course of business without the consent of Agrium;
the effect of the announcement of the proposed merger of equals on our ability to retain customers, suppliers and personnel and on our operating future business and
operations generally; risks related to diversion of management time from ongoing business operations due to the proposed merger of equals; failure to realize the
anticipated benefits of the proposed merger of equals and to successfully integrate Agrium and PotashCorp; the risk that our credit ratings may be downgraded or there
may be adverse conditions in the credit markets; any significant impairment of the carrying value of certain assets; variations from our assumptions with respect to
foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and
demand in the fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and uncertainties related to any
operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns; adverse or uncertain economic
conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; changes in capital markets; the results of sales contract
negotiations within major markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; risks related to reputational loss; the occurrence of a major safety incident; inadequate
insurance coverage for a significant liability; our inability to obtain relevant permits for our operations; catastrophic events or malicious acts, including terrorism; certain
complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; risks and uncertainties related to our international operations and assets; our ownership of
non-controlling equity interests in other companies; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities and acquisitions; risks associated with natural gas and
other hedging activities; security risks related to our information technology systems; imprecision in reserve estimates; costs and availability of transportation and
distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; earnings and
the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates; increases in the price or reduced availability of the raw materials that we use; our ability to
attract, develop, engage and retain skilled employees; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our
investments and capital expenditures; timing and impact of capital expenditures; the impact of further innovation; adverse developments in pending or future legal
proceedings or government investigations; and violations of our governance and compliance policies. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under
the headings “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results and Operations and Financial Condition” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the
fiscal year ended December 31, 2016 and in other documents and reports subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian
provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-
looking statements in this release, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Company Overview
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #4
• Six mines in Canada with over 19 MMT* of nameplate capacity
• Highest-quality, lowest-cost North American potash producer with
significant platform for growth
• Three facilities in the US and a large-scale facility in Trinidad
• Lower-cost natural gas, proximity to key markets and more stable
industrial customer base
• Two mining/processing plants and five upgrading facilities in the US
• Most diversified product offering in the industry; historically higher
margins and more stable returns
• Four offshore investments: APC (Jordan) 28%, ICL (Israel) 14%,
Sinofert (China) 22% and SQM (Chile) 32%
• Market value of $6.3 billion**, or ~$8 per PotashCorp share
World-Class Potash Assets and Advantaged Positions in Nitrogen and Phosphate
Company Overview
* Represents estimated nameplate capacity, which may exceed operational capability
**As of market close on November 21, 2017; market value of SQM calculated using last traded price of B shares
90%
10%
Fertilizer Feed & Industrial
39%
61%
North America Offshore
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #5
Product Sales Volumes (2016)
Geographic Sales Volumes (2016)
Priorities
Potash
Company Overview
• Market-responsive potash approach
• Strike the right balance between:
• Maximizing flexibility (operational capability to
respond to demand growth)
• Minimizing costs (optimization of production
to lowest cost mines)
• Enhance market opportunities and distribution
capabilities
• Explore additional opportunities to enhance our
potash enterprise
Nitrogen Phosphate
63%
37%
Fertilizer
Feed & Industrial
39%
61%
Fertilizer
Feed & Industrial
72%
28%
North America
Offshore
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #6
Product Sales Volumes (2016)Priorities
Geographic Sales Volumes (2016)
84%
16%
North America
Offshore
Company Overview
• Enhance cost position by achieving energy and
labor efficiencies
• Expanding urea capacity (increasing DEF supply)
• Optimize Trinidad production and explore new
market opportunities
• Negotiating new Trinidad gas supply contracts
• Improve cost position by refining mining
techniques and procurement initiatives
• Continue to improve plant reliability and operating
equipment efficiency
• Evaluate new market viability and product
differentiation opportunities
Nitrogen
Phosphate
53%43%
4%
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #7
Contribution to Gross Margin (2016)Sales Volumes (2016)
Company Overview
0
2
4
6
8
10
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
Million Metric Tonnes
Potash is Our Core Nutrient
Source: PotashCorp
Improved Results Driven by Higher Prices, Increased Volumes and Lower Costs
Potash Segment Performance
Q3-17Q3-17Q2-17Q1-17Q4-16Q3-16
$179
+19.3%
$150
* Based on mid-point of 9.1-9.3 MMT potash sales volume forecast as at October 26, 2017
** Assumes Rocanville production of approximately 5mmt in 2017; FX rate of CDN 1.30 per 1 USD;
2017 sales volumes based on guidance as at October 26, 2017
Average Realized Sales Price
US$ per Tonne
Slide #8
Sales Volume*
Million Tonnes
9.2
+7.0%
8.6
2016 DomesticOffshore 2017F
Cost of Goods Sold**
US$ per Tonne
-16%
2017F2016
Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold
Depreciation and Amortization
Source: PotashCorp
2017 Guidance1
1 As at October 26, 20172 Does not include capitalized interest3 As a percentage of potash gross margin4 Includes income from dividends and share of equity earnings
Slide #9
Potash sales volumes 9.1-9.3 million tonnes
Potash gross margin $750-$800 million
Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin $140-$190 million
Capital expenditures 2 ~$600 million
Effective tax rate Negative 2-4 percent
Provincial mining and other taxes 3 19-21 percent
Selling and administrative expenses $215-$225 million
Finance costs $230-$240 million
Income from equity investments 4 $180-$190 million
Annual foreign exchange rate assumption CDN$1.30 per US$
Annual EPS sensitivity to foreign exchangeUS$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 =
+$0.01 EPS
Annual EPS sensitivity to potash prices Increases by $20 per tonne = +$0.14 EPS
Annual earnings per share $0.48-$0.54
Strategy and Focus Areas
Market Responsive Potash Approach - 10.1 MMT potash operational capability in 2017
• Completed operational changes at Cory mine; move to white potash only
• Announced inventory shutdowns at other SK mines
Positioning our Company for Long-Term Success
Strategy and Key Focus Areas
Slide #11
Financial Flexibility - ~$600 million forecast capital expenditure in 2017
Portfolio Optimization - ~$15/mt estimated reduction in potash cost of goods sold in 2017
• Completion of multi-year potash expansion program
• Realigned dividend in 2016
• Suspended potash production in New Brunswick
• Rocanville ramped-up; largest and lowest cost potash mine (~50% of company-wide production)
• Canpotex sales entitlement increased to ~55%
• Focusing on continued operational excellence across all three nutrients
Source: PotashCorp
Merger of Equals with Agrium - Up to $500 million of estimated annual operating synergies
• Received regulatory clearances in Brazil, Canada, China, India and Russia; anticipate close by
end of Q4 2017
• Evaluating synergies, processes and best practices for adoption by Nutrien
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
Rocanville Allan Lanigan Cory New Brunswick Patience Lake
Operational Capability*
Nameplate Capacity**
Paid-for Capacity a Platform for Growth
Source: PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
* Estimated annual achievable production level at current staffing and operational readiness (estimated at beginning of 2017).
Estimate does not include inventory-related shutdowns and unplanned downtime.
** Estimates based on 2017 capacity as per design specifications or Canpotex entitlements once determined. In the case of New
Brunswick, nameplate capacity represents design specifications for the Picadilly mine, which is currently in care-and-
maintenance mode. In the case of Patience Lake, estimate reflects current operational capability.
Slide #12
Market Responsive Potash Approach
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F**
Cash-related Cost of Goods Sold*
Depreciation and Amortization
Rocanville % of Total Operational Capability
Source: PotashCorp
Percent
* Refers to total cost of goods sold less depreciation and amortization
** Assumes Rocanville production of approximately 5mmt in 2017; FX rate of CDN 1.30 per 1 USD; 2017 sales
volumes based on guidance as at October 26, 2017
US$ Per Tonne (Potash)
Strategy Leading to Significantly Lower Costs
Slide #13
Portfolio Optimization
Rocanville cash costs of
~$45-$50 per tonne with
ramp-up complete
Focusing on Financial Flexibility and Investment-Grade Credit Rating
Financial Flexibility
Slide #14
Source: PotashCorp
0
600
1,200
1,800
2,400
3,000
2013 2014 2015 2016 2017F*
Dividend
CAPEX - Sustaining
CAPEX - Opportunity
US$ Millions
* Based on CAPEX guidance as of October 26, 2017; does not include capitalized interest
Source: PotashCorp
2017Q1 Q2
2016
Suspended potash
operations at Picadilly, NB
2.0 mmt of nameplate capacity
Announced inventory
shutdowns
at Allan & Lanigan
Q3
Reduced quarterly
dividend
to $0.10/share
Reduced quarterly dividend
to $0.25/share
Q4 Q1
2017
Rocanville
ramp-up complete
Capacity increased to
6.5mmt
Hammond warehouse/
distribution center
complete
enhancing US
distribution
Commitment to a Proactive Approach; Merger Expected to Close by End of Q4 2017
Recent and Upcoming Event Timeline
Announced merger of
equals with Agrium
Expect up to $500M in
annual synergies
Shareholders
overwhelmingly
voted to approve
merger with Agrium
Q2 Q3
Slide #15
Merger Regulatory Review and
Integration Planning ProcessesExpect to be complete by end of Q4 2017
Announced operational
changes & inventory
shutdowns
move to white potash
only at Cory
Canpotex sales entitlement
increased to 55%
Announced
inventory
shutdowns
at Allan & Lanigan
Merger Update
Received regulatory clearances in Brazil, Canada, China, India and Russia
Commitment to divest minority shareholdings in APC, ICL and SQM
Regulatory review and approval process progressing in the US
Agrium announced sale of Conda phosphate and North Bend Nitric Acid Operations
Remedies under consideration not expected to impact estimated annual operating
synergies of ~$500 million
Expect to close the transaction by the end of Q4 2017
Significant Progress Made Towards Completion of Merger with Agrium
Merger of Equals Update
Slide #17
Combination Creates a World-Class Integrated Global Supplier of Crop Inputs
Slide #18
Largest Crop Nutrient Company in the World & 3rd Largest Natural Resource Company in Canada
Combined market capitalization of $30 billion and enterprise value of $40 billion (1)
Low-Cost, World-Class Producer of Key Crop Nutrients
Highest-quality, lowest-cost North American potash producer
Low-cost North American nitrogen platform; diverse phosphate product portfolio
Leading Retail Distribution Platform
Global retail distributor of crop input products, services and solutions for growers
Platform for future high-value product innovation and growth
Up to $5 Billion in Value Creation from Run-rate Synergies (2)
~$500 million of estimated annual operating synergies
Implies ~20% value creation for the combined enterprise
All-stock transaction allows all shareholders to participate in the benefits of the combination
Compelling Growth Opportunities
Recently completed capacity expansions, particularly in potash, provide platform for growth
Continue retail's highly successful organic growth and acquisition strategy
Strong Balance Sheet with Significant Cash Flow Generation
~$3bn-4bn operating cash flow (3) with significant upside potential upon cycle recovery
Flexibility to grow and return excess capital while maintaining strong credit ratings
Large capital projects complete for both companies
Strong cash flows to support attractive dividends, expected to be equal to the current Agrium level (4)
Note: Dollars in U.S. dollars.(1) Based on Agrium and PotashCorp enterprise values as of 2/22/17(2) Assumes $500 million of annual synergies capitalized at a blended EV / 2017E EBITDA multiple of 10x, not including costs to achieve. (3) Range represents combined 2015 & 2016 cash provided by operating activities.
(4) Adjusted for the new share count, subject to market conditions and Board approval at the time of closing.
Strong Line of Sight to Capture Synergies of ~$500 million
Slide #19
Category Description Value
Distribution &
Retail
Integration /
Optimization
~$150 million
Rail Fleet
Optimization
• Own / lease 15,000+ railcars at an average annual cost of ~$115
million
• Shorter cycle times for nutrient shipments allow for rail car
rationalization and a reduction in costs by approximately 20%
~$25M
Distribution and
Warehouse
Optimization
• Eliminate duplicate warehouse locations including $20 million of
Agrium leased warehouse costs~$25M
Logistics
Savings
• Improve and optimize servicing of customers by sourcing product
closer to production facilities (product repatriation)
• Reduce freight costs tied to volume-based benefits
~$50M
Portfolio
Integration
• Ability to optimize PotashCorp’s crop nutrient production through
Agrium retail; access to expanded product offerings~$25M
Product Mix
Optimization
• Utilize retail network to optimize nitrogen and phosphate product
mix~$25M
1
Note: Dollars in U.S. dollars.Source: Estimates Per Agrium and PotashCorp management.
Category Description Value
Production
Optimization
~$125 million
Phosphate
Integration
• Utilize PotashCorp’s excess P2O5 capacity at Aurora and White
Springs to supply Agrium Redwater, eliminating higher-cost, third-
party rock purchases (estimated cost reduction of $70 / MT on a
rock equivalent basis)
~$80M
Potash Cost
Efficiencies
• Operational planning efficiencies and savings derived from co-
located assets, including improved mine planning, turnaround
optimization and shift sequencing
• Expect to reduce cash fixed costs by ~10% or $4 / MT
~$45M
Procurement
~$100 millionProcurement
• Optimize purchases on $1.4 billion of annual non-raw material
supplies and $1.2 billion in annual sustaining capital spend
• Expect to reduce purchasing costs by ~4%
~$100M
SG&A
~$125 million
SG&A
Optimization
• Eliminate duplicative public company costs (listing fees, audit
costs, etc)
• Reduce discretionary, non-personnel G&A spending by $60
million
• Optimize headquarter functions
~$125M
Strong Line of Sight to Capture Synergies of ~$500 million
Slide #20
2
3
4
Note: Dollars in U.S. dollars.Source: Estimates Per Agrium and PotashCorp management.
Market Update
• Favorable barter ratios
supporting record
fertilizer demand
• Acreage expansion to
continue although at
slower pace
Latin
America
• Palm oil prices remain
at supportive levels
• Plantations implement
yield recovery programs
following drought in 2016
• Population and income
growth support demand
for wide-range of crops
Other Asia
• Increased crop support
prices and good
monsoon rains supported
crop plantings and
fertilizer demand
• Government
implemented higher
import duty on oilseed
products
Corn
(US$/bu)
$3.45$3.71
Supportive Agriculture Fundamentals in Most Key Regions
• Farm consolidation
supporting fertilization
practices; continued shift
to high-value, nutrient-
intensive crops
• Government reduced
subsidized corn prices, but
proposed new ethanol
(E10) target by 2020
• Higher than expected
crop yields weigh on
prices but resulted in
significant nutrient
removal from soil
• Strong fertilizer
affordability supports
application rates
Selected Crop Prices
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
North
AmericaChinaIndia
Soybean (US$/bu)
$9.90$9.72$0.16
Sugar
(US$/lbs)
$0.15
Palm Oil (MYR/mt)
2,6082,504
Regional Highlights
* As at November 21, 2017
Global Agriculture Backdrop
Ja
n’1
8
Ma
r’18
Ja
n’1
8
Slide #22
De
c’1
7
Futures3-Year Average
Source: Fertilizer Week, PotashCorp
Global Potash Prices Improved for the Fifth Consecutive Quarter
Selected Fertilizer Prices
Agronomic need and
affordability supporting
demand and higher
prices; expect record
shipments in 2017
175
200
225
250
275
300
325
350
375
400
Mar AprFebJan May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
DAP - FOB Tampa ($/mt)Ammonia - CFR Tampa ($/mt)Potash - CFR Brazil ($/mt)
Strong demand and
reduced Chinese
exports supporting
prices; expect volatility
for balance of 2017
Seasonal demand
strength, higher input
costs and supply
outages supporting
prices in near term
Slide #23
Fertilizer Market Outlook
2016 2017
Near-term
Themes
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%
180%
Jan-15 Apr-15 Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16 Apr-16 Jul-16 Oct-16 Jan-17 Apr-17 Jul-17 Oct-17
Source: Bloomberg, IFA, Fertilizer Week
* Based on a basket of key agricultural crops (weighted for potash use by crop)
** Based on key spot market prices (US, Brazil, Southeast Asia and Europe)
Strong Value Proposition Supporting Global Potash Demand
Global Potash Affordability
112% 137%
Average Ratio (Crop Index as % of Potash Index)
Less
More
AF
FO
RD
AB
ILIT
Y
Slide #24
Crop Price Index* as a % of Potash Price Index**
January 2015 Average = 100
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Record Potash Shipments Supported by Strong Consumption Trends
Global Potash Consumption and Shipment Growth
Potash Shipment Growth2013-2018F Million Tonnes KCl
1.9
2.1
0.8
4.8
0.5
North
America
Latin
America
Other
Asia
India
1.6
China2013 2018F**
65.0
Rest of
World
53.3
* Based on CRU potash fertilizer consumption forecast as at August 2017
** Based on mid-point of 63-67 MMT global shipment forecast for 2018 as at October 26, 2017
8.6%
5.6%5.1%
3.6%
0.7%
4.0%
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
China India Other Asia LatinAmerica
NorthAmerica
World
Potash Fertilizer Consumption Growth2013-2018F CAGR*
Slide #25
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Million Tonnes KCl
Note: Shaded bars represent shipment forecast range as at October 26, 2017
Expect Potash Demand Growth to Continue in 2018
Potash Shipments by Region
Slide #26
0
5
10
15
20
15 16 17F18F 15 16 17F18F 15 16 17F18F 15 16 17F18F 15 16 17F18F 15 16 17F18F
India
4.3 – 5.0Mmt
• Expect modest
demand growth in
line with positive
consumption trends
that occurred in 2017
Other Asia
9.5 – 10.0Mmt
• Demand supported
by robust crop
economics and
improved moisture
conditions
North America
9.3 – 9.8Mmt
• Steady demand
supported by strong
affordability and
significant removal
of nutrients following
consecutive large
harvests
Latin America
12.0 – 12.5Mmt
• Favorable crop
economics and
acreage growth in
nutrient deficient
regions is supporting
record potash
demand
China
15.5 – 16.5Mmt
• Strong consumption
trends supported by
affordability and a
shift to more
potassium-intensive
crops like fruits and
vegetables
20
18
Hig
hlig
hts
Previous Record:
6.3mmt (2010)
Previous Record:
9.5mmt (2014)
Previous Record:
11.1mmt (1997)
Previous Record:
11.7mmt (2016)
Previous Record:
15.8mmt (2015) Previous Record:
13.7mmt (1997)
Other
12.3 – 13.3Mmt
• Good affordability
and growing demand
for NPK fertilizers,
including in Africa,
are expected to
boost potash
demand
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F
Fruits & Vegetables
Grains & Oilseeds
Other Crops
Potash Consumption
Global Crop Production and Potash Consumption
Production of Nutrient Intensive Crops Underpins Potash Consumption Growth
Source: Fertecon, CRU, USDA, FAO, PotashCorp
Other crops include fiber crops, pulses, roots and tubers.
2001-2016
CAGR
F & V
2.8% 2.3%
G & O
1.6%
Other
2.7%
Potash
Slide #27
Crop Production Million Tonnes
Potash Consumption Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent
Source: CRU, USDA, FAO
China’s Potash Consumption Drivers
Major Crop Harvested AreasMillion Hectare
Crop Contribution to K2O ConsumptionMillion Tonnes
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F
Fruit and Veg Corn Rice Wheat
0.0
4.0
8.0
12.0
2011 2016 2021F
Fruit and Veg Rice Corn Others
31%
45%
51%
17%
15%
13%
11%
10%
11%
Fruit and Vegetable Expansion a Key Driver of Potash Consumption Growth
Slide #28
Source: CRU, FAO, PotashCorp
0
5
10
15
20
25
0
2
4
6
8
20162014 2017F201520122010 2011 2013
India Potash Shipments (Right Axis)World
Potash Application Rates Indian Potash Shipmentslbs/acre K20 Million Tonnes KCl
India’s Potash Application Rates
Significant Opportunity to Improve Application Rates in India
Slide #29
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F
Shipments
POT Shipment Forecast Range
Operational Capability*
Expect Relatively Balanced Supply/Demand Over Medium Term
Global Potash Supply and Demand
* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up
periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.
Slide #30
Million Tonnes KCl
2017 Ammonia Capacity Changes* Million Tonnes
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, PotashCorp
* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017
** Based on industry consultant estimates
Global Nitrogen Market Overview
Expect 2017 to be the Peak for Capacity Additions
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
L. America
Africa
Russia
Other Asia
US
China**
Middle East
Slide #31
Net Additions = +5.0 Mmt (~3%)
Ammonia supply
curtailed; trade
patterns adjusting
45%Increase in US nitrogen
exports during Q3 2017
US nitrogen
exports rise
during low
demand periods
17%Estimated reduction of Black
Sea ammonia exports in 2017
Market Factors to Watch
Chinese nitrogen
operating rates**
at historical lows
~60%Current operating rate vs
typical average ~75%
Ammonia demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017
2017 Phosphate Capacity Additions*Million Tonnes P2O5
Source: CRU, Katana, Profercy, Argus, PotashCorp
Global Phosphate Market Overview
Expect Majority of New Capacity from Saudi Arabia and Morocco
Chinese
operating rates**
at historical lows
30%
42%
28%
Morocco
Other
Saudi Arabia
Net Additions = +1.6 Mmt P2O5 (~3%)
* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017
** Based on industry consultant estimates
Slide #32
Expect improved
Indian
engagement in the
near-term
~60-65%Current operating rate vs
typical average ~77%
~0.5MmtEstimated reduction in DAP
inventory y-o-y
(lowest Oct inventory since 2014)
Market Factors to Watch
Phosphate demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017
Strong demand
from Brazil
~12%Increase in MAP/DAP
imports 2017 ytd
PotashCorp.com
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Senior VP, Investor & Public Relations
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Director, Investor Relations
Tim McMillan
Manager, Investor Relations
PotashCorp.com
Investor Relations