potashcorp - 2013 q2 earnings

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PotashCorp.com Q2 2013 Conference Call July 25, 2013

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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q2 2013 Conference CallJuly 25, 2013

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this presentation and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#2

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Second-Quarter 2013 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.73 per share1; exceeding the $0.60 per share earned in 20122

• Cash from operating activities of $1.2 billion; second-highest second-quarter total

• Potash sales volume of 2.5 million tonnes

• Successfully completed Canpotex3 run at Cory; Canpotex entitlement now 51.5%

• Nitrogen gross margin of $276 million; second-highest second-quarter total

• Market value of investments $6.8 billion, or $8 per PotashCorp share4

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 Totals for the second quarter and first six months of 2012 included a $0.39 per share impairment charge related to our investment in Sinofert Holdings Limited (Sinofert)3 Canpotex Ltd. (Canpotex), the offshore marketing company for Saskatchewan potash producers4 As of market close on July 24, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#3

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Gross Margin Decrease Largely Due to Weaker Potash Results

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Q2 2012 GM

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q2 2013 GM

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

$1,199

$979

-$188

-$26 -$6

US$ MillionsPotash Highlights:• Strong demand in all markets; offshore shipments to

Other Asia and India outpaced prior year levels

• Realizations declined due to increased competitive pressure in all key markets

• Lower per-tonne costs due primarily to the absence of higher-cost Esterhazy tonnage

Nitrogen Highlights:• Gross margin near record levels; increased sales

volumes partially offset decline in urea realizations

• Additional ammonia capacity at Geismar contributed ~$30 million in incremental gross margin

Phosphate Highlights:• Stable prices for feed and industrial products helped

counterbalance weakness in fertilizer product pricing

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#4

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash DemandConsumption Growth Expected to Drive 2013 Shipments

Market 2012 2013F

China 10.6 ~11.5

India 3.5 ~4.0

Other Asia 7.5 ~8.3

Latin America 9.5 ~10.2

North America 7.9 ~9.5

Other 12.0 ~12.5

Total 51.0 ~56

Estimated Shipments by Market* (million tonnes)

* Estimates per PotashCorp

Slide#5

40

42

44

46

48

50

52

54

56

58

2012 China India Other Asia

Latin America

North America

Other 2013F*

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Potash Shipments to Key Regions Excluding IndiaStrong Growth in Key Regions

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IPNI, USDOC, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Million Tonnes KCl

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013F0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45 Latin America China Other Asia North America

3.5% CAGR

Slide#6

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Expect Fertilizer Will Remain Very Affordable

Fertilizer Cost Percentage of Corn Revenue*

Source: USDA, DTN, PotashCorp

04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13E 14F**0

5

10

15

20

25Nitrogen Phosphate Potash

$4.00/bushel

2014 Corn Price Scenarios

$5.00/bushel

$6.00/bushel

Percent

* Based on average US farm revenue and costs

** Based on projected fall 2013 retail prices of $500/st urea, $575/st DAP and $525/st KCl

Slide#7

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

47.7%

PotashCorpOther Canpotex Members

Source: Company Reports, PotashCorp

Anticipate Increasing Canpotex Entitlement

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Percentage of Canpotex Entitlement

51.5%

PotashCorp

First-half 2013 Second-half 2013

Slide#8

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Source: PotashCorp, Company Reports

Competitor Greenfield Projects1

PotashCorp’s CAPEX Spending Largely Complete; Competitors Facing Rising Costs

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

88%

12%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*

Original Estimate Current Estimate0

5

10

15

20

Billions - US$

129% Increase

1 Greenfield projects include: K+S (Legacy) ; Eurochem (Volgograd); Vale (Rio Colorado)2 Estimate based on publically available project cost discussion from current project developer or, in certain cases, previous project developer3 Estimate based on publically available comments in presentations or transcripts from current project developer

2 3

Slide#9

* As at June 30, 2013

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Source: IFA, PotashCorp

IFA derives operational capability by multiplying capacity by the highest historical achievable operating rate.

2012 2013F 2014F 2015F 2016F50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90 IFA Forecast as of May 2013 IFA Forecast as of May 2012

Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent

Significant Project Delays and Deferrals Over the Past 12 Months

IFA Potash Operational Capability Outlook

8 million tonnes

Slide#10

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Continuing to Generate Significant Cash From Operations

Cash Provided by Operating Activities (First Half)

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#11

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 20130

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

US$ Millions

As we adopted International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) with effect from January 1, 2010, 2004 to 2009 information is presented on a previous Canadian generally accepted accounting principals (GAAP) basis. Accordingly, information for 2004 to 2009 may not be comparable to information for 2010 to 2013.

All figures represent totals for first-six months of respective year

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

Utilizing Strong Cash Flow to Enhance Long-term Shareholder Returns

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

Q4-10

Q1-11

Q2-11

Q3-11

Q4-11

Q1-12

Q2-12

Q3-12

Q4-12

Q1-13

Q2-13

$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.30

$0.35

$0.40

$0.03

Dividend* per Share – US$

* Dividends declared each quarter** $0.10 per share dividend adjusted for 3 for 1 stock split; rounded to nearest cent.

Source: PotashCorp

950% Increase

Opportunity Capital (10-year total)

= $8.1B

24% Return5-year Average Cash Flow Return 1,2

(2008-2012)

Share Repurchases (since 1999)

= $6.3B

46% Increase

in current share price2 above average repurchase price

Equity Investments 3 (since 1998)

= $2.0B

245% Increase

Change in Market Value of Investments

Since Acquisition2

1 See reconciliation and description of certain non-IFRS measures at www.potashcorp.com2 All figures as at July 24, 20133 Total acquisition cost for SQM, APC, Sinofert and ICL

Slide#12

$2 Billion Share Repurchase

ProgramAnnounced July 24, 2013 (5% of outstanding shares)

Page 13: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

2013 Guidance*

Third Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.45-$0.60

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $2.45-$2.70

• Potash gross margin: $1.8-$2.1 billion

• Potash shipments: 8.5-9.2 million tonnes

• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.3-$1.5 billion

* Guidance as at July 25, 2013

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#13

Page 14: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

2013 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.5 billion

• Annual effective tax rate: 27-28 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 11-13 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $320-$340 million

• Selling and administrative expenses: $230-$240 million

• Finance costs: $130-$150 million

* Guidance as at July 25, 2013

** Does not include capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

*** Includes share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#14

Page 15: PotashCorp - 2013 Q2 Earnings

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