potashcorp - 2013 q4 & year-end earnings

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PotashCorp.com Q4 2013 Conference Call January 30, 2014

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Page 1: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

PotashCorp.com

Q4 2013 Conference CallJanuary 30, 2014

Page 2: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several factors could cause actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to the following: risk and uncertainties related to operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve; variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; rates of return on and the risks associated with our investments; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities, which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2012 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Slide#2

Page 3: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

Fourth-Quarter 2013 Highlights

• Earnings of $0.26 per share1; trailed the $0.48 per share earned in 2012

• Severance-related costs of $60 million related to workforce reduction

• Cash provided by operating activities of $656 million

• Repurchased 7.8 million common shares at an average cost of $31.86 per share

• Market value of investments $5.2 billion, or $6 per PotashCorp share2

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 As of market close on January 29, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#3

Page 4: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

• Earnings of $2.04 per share1; trailing the $2.37 per share earned in 2012

• Cash provided by operating activities of $3.2 billion, third highest in history

• Gross margin of $2.8 billion; below the $3.4 billion generated last year

• Repurchased 14.1 million common shares at an average cost of $31.46 per share

• Potash expansion spending approximately 93 percent complete

• Increased dividend by 67 percent compared to prior year

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share

Full-Year 2013 Highlights

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#4

Page 5: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

Gross Margin Decrease Due to Lower Prices Across All Nutrients

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison

Q4 2012 GM

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q4 2013 GM

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

$586

$460

-$53-$18 -$55

US$ Millions Quarter Highlights:• Severance-related charges of $60 million impacted all

three nutrients, most significantly potash ($32 million) and phosphate ($17 million)

Potash Highlights:• Improved potash demand – particularly in North

America from comparatively low period in 2012; demand in contract markets relatively subdued

• Average realized prices continued to decline due to increased competitive pressure in all key markets

Nitrogen Highlights:• Increased sales volumes more than offset by decline in

average realized prices for all products

Phosphate Highlights:• Increased sales volumes more than offset by lower

average realized prices for fertilizer products

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#5

Page 6: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

Gross Margin Decrease Due to Lower Prices Across All Nutrients

Annual Gross Margin Comparison

2012 GM Potash Nitrogen Phosphate 2013 GM0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

$3,410

$2,790

-$390

-$65 -$165

US$ Millions Potash Highlights:• Increased demand despite market uncertainty in the

second half

• Lower average realized prices due to competitive pressures in all key markets

Nitrogen Highlights:• Increased sales volumes more than offset by decline in

average realized prices, particularly urea

Phosphate Highlights:• Lower average realized prices for fertilizer products

impacted margins

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#6

Page 7: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

World Potash DemandPotential for Record or Near-record Shipments

* Forecast per PotashCorp Slide#7

Market 2013 2014F Factors to Watch

China 11.0 11.3 - 11.7Strong first-half 2014 commitments in place likely to limit second-half import requirements. Shipment levels at the upper end of range will require consumption growth and/or appetite to restock inventories.

India 3.1 3.7 - 4.2Growth expected due to low inventory levels coming into 2014 and a minor improvement in consumption. Potential for stronger imports but largely contingent on changes to fertilizer subsidies.

Other Asia 7.8 8.0 - 8.3Demand expected to be robust; supportive prices for palm oil and other key crops. Consumption growth has been relatively steady despite uneven buying patterns.

Latin America 10.1 10.3 - 10.6Demand expected to be robust with supportive returns for growers; potential deterioration in crop economics – in particular for soybeans – could impact fertilizer consumption and import needs.

North America 8.7 9.0 - 9.5Strong engagement in preparation for spring season. Expect full-year demand will move higher, more inline with historical average levels.

Other 12.5 ~12.7Potential for upside to demand expectation, particularly with improved consumption in Western Europe and additional growth in FSU and central Europe.

Total 53.2 55.0-57.0

Estimated KCl Shipments by Market* (million tonnes)

Page 8: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

Source: Fertecon, CRU, PotashCorp

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

E

2014

F50

55

60

65

70

75

80

85

90

95

100

Percent*

Expected to Rise on Increased Demand and Reduced Operational Capability

Global Potash Operating Rate

* Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level). 2014F based on mid-point of PotashCorp’s demand forecast range of 55-57 MMT.

Historical Average (20 year)

Slide#8

Page 9: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014E 2015E 2016E0.0

500.0

1,000.0

1,500.0

2,000.0

2,500.0

Source: PotashCorp

PotashCorp Total Capital Spending**

CAPEX Spending Largely Complete

PotashCorp’s Opportunity

93%

7%

Completed Remaining

PotashCorp Potash Projects Estimated Capital Spending*

US$ Billions

Slide#9

* As at December 31, 2013. Includes both debottleneck and expansion spending.

** Cash additions to property, plant and equipment per cash flow statement (2006-2013)

Page 10: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

2014 Guidance*

First Quarter

• Earnings per share: $0.30-$0.35

Full Year

• Earnings per share: $1.40-$1.80

• Potash gross margin: $1.0-$1.3 billion

• Potash shipments: 8.2-8.6 million tonnes

• Phosphate and nitrogen gross margin: $1.0-$1.2 billion

* Guidance as at January 30, 2014

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#10

Page 11: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

2014 Guidance*

Full Year

• Capital expenditures**: ~$1.1 billion

• Annual effective tax rate: 26-28 percent

• Provincial mining and other taxes: 16-18 percent of total potash gross margin

• Income from offshore investments***: $160-$180 million

• Selling and administrative expenses: $225-$235 million

• Finance costs: $165-$175 million

* Guidance as at January 30, 2014

** Does not include capitalized interest

*** Includes share of earnings in equity-accounted investees and dividend income from available-for-sale investments

Source: PotashCorp

Slide#11

Page 12: PotashCorp - 2013 Q4 & Year-End Earnings

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