potashcorp - citi basic materials symposium - november 28, 2012

32
PotashCorp.com Citi Basic Materials Symposium November 28, 2012 Wayne Brownlee Executive VP and CFO

Upload: potashcorp

Post on 08-May-2015

2.956 views

Category:

Investor Relations


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

PotashCorp.com

Citi Basic Materials SymposiumNovember 28, 2012

Wayne Brownlee

Executive VP and CFO

Page 2: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

This presentation contains forward-looking statements or forward-looking information (forward-looking statements). These statements can be identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements are based on certain factors and assumptions including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates. While the company considers these factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Several factors could cause actual results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements, including, but not limited to: variations from our assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur, transportation and petrochemical markets; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; the results of sales contract negotiations with major markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world, including the European sovereign debt crisis; timing and impact of capital expenditures; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; changes in capital markets and corresponding effects on the company’s investments; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; changes in currency and exchange rates; unexpected geological or environmental conditions, including water inflows; imprecision in reserve estimates; adverse developments in new and pending legal proceedings or government investigations; acquisitions we may undertake; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or slowdowns; changes in, and the effects of, government policies and regulations; security risks related to our information technology systems; and earnings, exchange rates and the decisions of taxing authorities, all of which could affect our effective tax rates. Additional risks and uncertainties can be found in our Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2011 under the captions “Forward-Looking Statements” and “Item 1A – Risk Factors” and in our other filings with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are given only as at the date of this release and the company disclaims any obligation to update or revise the forward-looking statements, whether as a result of new information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Forward-looking Statements

Page 3: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

SQM

ICL

APC

Nitrogen

Phosphate

(Mining/Processing)

Potash

Investments

Sinofert

Source: Fertecon; CRU; Blue, Johnson & Associates; PotashCorp

A Global Crop Nutrient Company

PotashCorp Profile

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen

% of Global Capacity 20% 5% 2%

Global Position #1 #3 #3

% of Gross Margin (2011) 64% 15% 21%

Page 4: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012F*0

1

2

3

4

5

6Potash GM Phosphate GM Nitrogen GM

* 2012F as at October 25, 2012

Percent – Sept 2012 YTDUS$ Billions

Unique Potash Position Drives Earnings Growth

PotashCorp Profile

Source: PotashCorp

Potash Phosphate Nitrogen0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

Gross Margin by Segment Gross Margin Percentage of Net Sales

Page 5: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Top Investor Questions: US Potash and Phosphate Demand

Page 6: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Affordability of Fertilizer Remains Extremely Strong

North American Market Update

Source: DTN, Bloomberg, USDA, PotashCorp

US Corn and Retail Fertilizer Prices

Jan-11 Apr-11 Jul-11 Oct-11 Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-1280

90

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

170Corn Potash DAP Urea

Price Index (January 2011 = 100)

2013 Return Over Variable Costs Scenarios

US$/Acre

$4 $5 $6 $70

200

400

600

800

1,0002013F 10-Year Average

Corn Price Scenarios - $/bushel

Page 7: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: IPNI, USDOC, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Anticipate North American Demand Will Remain Robust

North American Potash Market Update

2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13F

0

2

4

6

8

10

12Shipments Jul-Dec Shipments Jan-Jun Consumption

Million Tonnes KCl

Page 8: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: TFI, AAPFCO, PotashCorp

Spring Demand Expected to Be Strong

US Phosphate Market Update

2004/05 2006/07 2008/09 2010/11 2012/13F

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

0

1

2

3

4

5Shipments Jul-Dec Shipments Jan-Jun Fertilizer Consumption

Shipments - Million Tons DAP/MAP Fertilizer Consumption – Million Tons P205

Page 9: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Top Investor Questions: Indian Potash Demand

Page 10: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Nov 19, 2010 Mar 9, 2011 May 5, 2011 April 1, 20120

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

69%

20%

11%

Source: Fertecon, India Department of Fertilizers, PotashCorp

Note: Rupee to US$ conversion is at the rate of 46 Rupees per US$ for 2010-11 and 50 for 2012

Percentage of Indian Fertilizer Subsidy

US$ Subsidy per Product Tonne

Government Actions Counter to Agronomic Needs…

Indian Fertilizer Subsidies

DAP

Potash

Urea

Nitrogen

Phosphate

Potash

Fertilizer Subsidies

Page 11: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: IPNI, PotashCorp

Despite Supportive Economics, Subsidy “Shock” Has Impacted Potash Demand

India Potash Situation

Return on Potash Fertilizer

Rice Wheat0

2

4

6

8

10

12

142010 2012

Return Per Dollar Spent

Page 12: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, USDA, PotashCorp

Crop Production is Impacted by Poor Fertilization Practices

India Potash Situation

Tonnes of Grain Produced Per Tonne of Fertilizer Use

India World US0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20022003

20042005

20062007

20082009

20102011

2012F0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0 Potash Fertilizer Consumption N:K Ratio

Million Tonnes of K20 N:K Ratio

Potash Consumption and Fertility Imbalance Crop Production*

* Based on 2011/12 crop year

Page 13: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Canpotex, PotashCorp

Limited Inventory Expected to act as Catalyst for Demand in 2013

India Potash Situation

2011 2012F0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

Millions Tonnes of KCL

Year End Inventory

Page 14: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

4 mmt 5.5 mmt 7 mmt0

2

4

6

8

10

N:K Ratio

Strong Imports Required to Move Toward Proper Nutrient Balance

India Potash Import and N:K Ratio Scenarios

2013 Potash Import Scenarios

10-Year High (2012)

10-Year Low (2010)

Page 15: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Top Investor Questions: Potash S&D Outlook

Page 16: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

12F

13F

Rec

ord

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash ShipmentsExpect Strong Rebound in 2013

India China

Latin America

Other Asia

North America

Other

Page 17: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, IFA, PotashCorp

1962-2007 1962-2012 1993-2007 1993-2012 2001-20070.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Cumulative Annual Growth Rate

Long-term Trends Support Rising Demand Outlook

Potash Consumption Trends

• 1962-2007: Long-term growth rate excluding global financial collapse

• 1962-2012: Long-term growth rate including global financial collapse

• 1993-2007: Period of growth following collapse of FSU - excludes global financial collapse

• 1993-2012: Period of growth following collapse of FSU - includes global financial collapse

• 2001-2007: Strong period of offshore growth fueled by rising demand for food

Page 18: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, PotashCorp

19931994

19951996

19971998

19992000

20012002

20032004

20052006

20072008

20092010

2011

2012F0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Million Tonnes KCl

World Potash ShipmentsSlower Demand Periods Have Historically Been Followed by Robust Growth

6.5% CAGR

5.3% CAGR

Page 19: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Public Filings, PotashCorp

* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.

2012F POT Other NA FSU Middle East

Other 2016F50

54

58

62

66

70

74

78

Million Tonnes KCl

PotashCorp Represents Majority of New Capability Coming Online

Global Potash Operational Capability*

Page 20: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012F

2013F

2014F

2015F

2016F

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Shipment Range Shipments Operational CapabilityOperating Rate

• Based on percentage of operational capability (estimated annual achievable production level).• Operating rate forecast based on mid-point of shipment range divided by operational capability(including announced projects; assuming typical ramp-up period for new capacity).

Operating Rate* - PercentMillion Tonnes KCl

World Potash Supply/DemandStrong Operating Rates Expected in Coming Years

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

Page 21: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Top Investor Questions: Nitrogen Position and Expansion Potential

Page 22: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: IPNI, DTN, USDA, Bloomberg, PotashCorp

Jan-11 May-11 Sep-11 Jan-12 May-12 Sep-120

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800Urea (FOB NOLA) Ammonia (CFR Tampa)

Spot Price

PotashCorp Benefiting From Strong Ammonia Pricing

Nitrogen Product Pricing and Product Mix

40%

23%

37%

Ammonia Urea Solutions/NA/AN

2012 YTD Nitrogen Product Mix

US$/tonne

As of October 30, 2012

Page 23: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

US Ammonia Capacity by LocationStrengthening our Nitrogen Position Through Capacity Additions

• Geismar – Ammonia plant restart will bring on 500,000 mt of capacity in early 2013

• Augusta – Additional 70,000 mt added in October 2012

• Lima – Currently evaluating potential options for capacity additions

Augusta Geismar Lima0.0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9Current Capacity Additions

Ammonia Production – Million Tonnes

As of October 30, 2012

Page 24: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Trinidad Gas Cost Indexed to AmmoniaLinear Relationship with Ammonia Provides a Natural Hedge

• Each Trinidad plant operates under a separate gas contract

• Currently negotiating most recently expired gas contract. A second gas contract expires in 2013

• Lower gas prices in the US likely to influence negotiations

200 300 400 500 600 700 800 900 10000

2

4

6

8

10

12

Ammonia Price – US$ Per Tonne

Estimated Gas Cost – US$ Per MMBtu

As of October 30, 2012

Page 25: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Q1-2010

Q2-2010

Q3-2010

Q4-2010

Q1-2011

Q2-2011

Q3-2011

Q4-2011

Q1-2012

Q2-2012

Q3-2012

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

180

200

0

1

2

3

4

5

6Trinidad US Gas Price

Gross Margin – US$ Millions

Strong Contributions From US and Trinidad Facilities

Nitrogen Gross Margin by Country

Gas Cost – US$ Per MMBtu

Page 26: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Top Investor Questions: Use of Future Cash Flow

Page 27: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Generating Strong Operating Cash Flow

Cash Flow From Operating Activities* (Q3 YTD)

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 20120

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

US$ Millions

Source: PotashCorp

* See selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our 10-Q at www.potashcorp.com

Page 28: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012F 2013F 2014F 2015F0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

US$ Millions

Major Potash Expansion Program Over 80 Percent Complete

PotashCorp Capital Spending

Source: PotashCorp

* Excluding capitalized interest and major repairs and maintenance

Page 29: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Future Cash Flow Priorities

2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Potential: Dividend Increases / Share Buybacks / M&A

Potash Projects (announced brownfields)

Nitrogen Projects (announced brownfields)

Page 30: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Dividend More Than Six-Times That of January 2011 Level

PotashCorp Dividend Per Share*

Q4 2010 Q1 2011 Q2 2011 Q3 2011 Q4 2011 Q1 2012 Q2 2012 Q3 2012$0.00

$0.05

$0.10

$0.15

$0.20

$0.25

$0.03

$0.07 $0.07 $0.07 $0.07

$0.14 $0.14

$0.21

US$ Per Share

* Dividends declared each quarter

Source: Bloomberg

As of October 30, 2012

Page 31: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

Source: PotashCorp

Focused on Using Free Cash Flow to Drive Long-Term Shareholder Value

Historical Cash Flow Deployment

Opportunity Capital

$7.6 Billion since 2003

5-Year Average CFR1 = 24.3%

Equity Investments

$2.0 Billion since 1998

Current Market Value2 = $8.9 billionContributions from Investments3 = $2.2 billion

Share Repurchases

$6.3 Billion since 1999

Average purchase price = $26/shareCurrent share price2 = $39/share

Dividend Payments

$1.2 Billion since 2002

Now 6x higher than January 2011 dividend

1 CFR = Cash Flow Return (see selected Non-IFRS Financial Measures and Reconciliations in our Annual Report available at www.potashcorp.com)2 As at November 25, 20123 Proceeds from investments include dividends and share of equity earnings from original purchase date to Sept 30, 2012

Page 32: PotashCorp - Citi Basic Materials Symposium - November 28, 2012

There’s more online:

PotashCorp.comVisit us online

Facebook.com/PotashCorpFind us on Facebook

Twitter.com/PotashCorpFollow us on Twitter

Thank you

Click icon to add picture