potashcorp 2017 q1 conference call
TRANSCRIPT
PotashCorp.com
Q1 2017 Conference Call
April 27, 2017
Forward-looking Statements
Slide #2
This presentation contains “forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or “forward-looking
information” (within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be
identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as
“should,” “could,” “expect,” “forecast,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain
factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance,
business prospects and opportunities, including the completion of the proposed merger of equals with Agrium, and effective tax rates. While we consider these
factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks
and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several
factors could cause our actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, the following: our
proposed merger of equals transaction with Agrium, including the failure to satisfy all required conditions, including required regulatory approvals, or to satisfy or
obtain waivers with respect to all other closing conditions in a timely manner and on favorable terms or at all; the occurrence of any event, change or other
circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the arrangement agreement; certain costs that we may incur in connection with the proposed merger of
equals; certain restrictions in the arrangement agreement on our ability to take action outside the ordinary course of business without the consent of Agrium; the
effect of the announcement of the proposed merger of equals on our ability to retain customers, suppliers and personnel and on our operating future business and
operations generally; risks related to diversion of management time from ongoing business operations due to the proposed merger of equals; failure to realize the
anticipated benefits of the proposed merger of equals and to successfully integrate Agrium and PotashCorp; the risk that our credit ratings may be downgraded or
there may be adverse conditions in the credit markets; the results of our impairment assessment regarding the carrying value of certain assets; variations from our
assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax
rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and
uncertainties related to any operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns;
adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; changes in capital
markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; risks related to reputational loss; the occurrence
of a major safety incident; inadequate insurance coverage for a significant liability; our inability to obtain relevant permits for our operations; catastrophic events or
malicious acts, including terrorism; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; risks and uncertainties related to our
international operations and assets; our ownership of non-controlling equity interests in other companies; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities
and acquisitions; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; security risks related to our information technology systems; imprecision in reserve
estimates; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in, and the effects
of, government policies and regulations; earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates; increases in the price or reduced
availability of the raw materials that we use; our ability to attract, develop, engage and retain skilled employees; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or
slowdowns; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; timing and impact of capital expenditures; the impact of
further innovation; adverse developments in pending or future legal proceedings or government investigations; and violations of our governance and compliance
policies. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results and
Operations and Financial Condition” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016 and in other documents and reports
subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are
given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this release, whether as a result of new
information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.
Performance
Key Highlights
• First-quarter earnings of $0.18 per share1
• Cash provided by operating activities of $223 million
• Rocanville ramp-up well underway; on track to reduce company-wide potash cost of
goods sold by approximately $10 per tonne in 2017
• Full-year 2017 guidance increased to $0.45-$0.65 per share, including merger-related
costs of $0.05 per share
• Market value of investments2 approximately $4.5 billion, or $5 per PotashCorp share3
1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 Arab Potash Company, Israel Chemicals Ltd., Sinofert Holdings Limited, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A.3 As of market close on April 26, 2017
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #4
Higher Gross Margin Due Primarily to Lower COGS, Improved Potash Sales Volumes
Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison (Q1-17 vs. Q1-16)
$234
$268
$72
-$10
-$28
0
90
180
270
360
Q12016
Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q12017
US$ Millions
Potash
• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – higher prices in North America
more than offset by weaker realizations in standard-grade markets
• Higher Sales Volumes – Significantly stronger engagement in offshore
markets
• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Optimization of production to lower-cost
mines and absence of suspension-related costs at our Picadilly facility
Nitrogen
• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – Weaker benchmark prices for
most products due to increased global supply
• Slightly Lower Sales Volumes – Reduced industrial demand and
seasonal weakness for solutions
• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Lower natural gas costs in Trinidad and
smaller hedging losses
Phosphate
• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – Lower benchmark prices for all
product categories
• Lower Sales Volumes – Primarily weaker demand for liquid fertilizers
• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Lower input costs and absence of non-
cash impairment charges
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #5
Source: PotashCorp
2017Q1 Q2
2016
Suspended potash
operations at Picadilly, NB
2.0 mmt of nameplate capacity
Announced Inventory
Shutdowns
at Allan & Lanigan
Q3
Reduced quarterly
dividend
to $0.10/share
Reduced quarterly dividend
to $0.25/share
Q4 Q1
2017
Rocanville Ramp-up
Expect Canpotex allocation
increase for 2H 2017
Hammond Warehouse/
Distribution Centre
Complete
enhancing US
distribution
Commitment to a Proactive Approach; Merger Expected to Close Mid-2017
Recent and Upcoming Event Timeline
Announced Merger of
Equals with Agrium
Expect up to $500M in
annual synergies
Shareholders
overwhelmingly
voted to approve
merger with Agrium
Q2 Q3
Slide #6
Merger Regulatory Review and
Integration Planning ProcessesExpect to be complete in mid-2017
Announced Operational
Changes & Inventory
Shutdowns
move to white potash
only at Cory
Outlook
• Strong barter ratios
supporting record
fertilizer demand
• Acreage expansion to
continue although at
slower pace
Latin
America
• Palm oil prices at very
supportive levels
• Plantations implement
yield recovery
programs following
drought in 2016
Other Asia
• Better moisture
conditions contributed
to increased Rabi crop
acreage and improved
fertilizer demand
• Shifting nutrient
subsidies likely to
continue to weigh on
demand growth
Corn
(US$/bu)
$3.83$3.77
Supportive Agriculture Fundamentals in Most Key Regions
• Farm consolidation
supporting improved
fertilization practices;
continued shift to high-
value, nutrient-intensive
crops
• Government reducing
subsidized local prices,
most notably for corn
• Potential pull back in
corn acres and increase
in soybeans could be
slight headwind for
nitrogen and neutral for
phosphate and potash
• Strong fertilizer
affordability supports
application rates
Selected Crop Prices
Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence
North
AmericaChinaIndia
Soybean (US$/bu)
$9.67$10.11$0.16
Sugar
(US$/lbs)
$0.17
Palm Oil (MYR/mt)
2,4712,441
Regional Highlights
* As at April 24, 2017
Global Agriculture Backdrop
No
v’1
7
Oct’1
7
No
v’1
7
Slide #8
De
c’1
7
Futures3-Year Average
Potash Shipments by Region
Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp
Expect Demand of 61-64 Million Tonnes in 2017
0
5
10
15
20
14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F
India
Note: Shaded bars represent shipment forecast range as of April 26, 2017.
3.8 – 4.3Mmt
• Potentially higher
retail prices likely to
result in limited
demand growth
Other Asia
9.0 – 9.5Mmt
• Demand supported by
robust crop
economics and
improved moisture
conditions
North America
9.3 – 9.8Mmt
• Supportive nutrient
prices and significant
removal of nutrients
following record crop
expected to support
demand
Latin America
11.7 – 12.2Mmt
• Agronomic need,
favorable crop
economics and lower
inventories expected
to support demand
growth
China
14.5 – 15.5Mmt
• Strong consumption
trends expected to
support demand
growth
20
17
Hig
hli
gh
ts
(Million Tonnes KCl)
Previous Record:
6.3mmt (2010)
Previous Record:
9.5mmt (2014)
Previous Record:
11.1mmt (1997)
Previous Record:
11.7mmt (2014)
Previous Record:
15.8mmt (2015)
Slide #9
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F
Fruits & Vegetables
Grains & Oilseeds
Other Crops
Potash Consumption
Global Crop Production and Potash Consumption
Production of Nutrient Intensive Crops Underpins Potash Consumption Growth
Source: Fertecon, CRU, USDA, FAO, PotashCorp
Other crops include fiber crops, pulses, roots and tubers.
2001-2016
CAGR
F & V
2.8% 2.3%
G & O
1.6%
Other
2.7%
Potash
Slide #10
Crop Production Million Tonnes
Potash Consumption Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent
Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F
Shipments
POT Shipment Forecast Range
Operational Capability*
Expect Relatively Balanced Supply/Demand Over Medium Term
Global Potash Supply and Demand
* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up
periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.
Slide #11
(Million Tonnes KCl)
2017 Ammonia Capacity Changes* Million Tonnes
Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, PotashCorp
* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017
** Based on industry consultant estimates
Global Nitrogen Market Overview
New Capacity Causing Volatility Although China To Remain Swing Capacity
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
L. America
Africa
Russia
Other Asia
US
China**
Middle East
Slide #12
Net Additions = +6.2 Mmt (~3%)
Estimated change
in Y-o-Y Chinese
urea exports
~60%Current operating rate vs
typical average ~75%
Chinese
operating rates**
at historical lows
~3-5MmtEstimated reduction in urea
exports from China
Market Factors to Watch
Chinese idled
urea capacity**
~8%Proportion of total Chinese
urea capacity idled
Ammonia demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017
2017 Phosphate Capacity Additions*Million Tonnes P2O5
Source: CRU, Katana, Profercy, PotashCorp
Global Phosphate Market Overview
New Low-cost Capacity Anticipated, Although Near-term Support for Market
Chinese
operating rates**
at historical lows
42% Morocco
Other
23%
35%
Saudi Arabia
Net Additions = +1.5 Mmt P2O5 (~3%)
* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017
** Based on industry consultant estimates
Slide #13
Greater Indian
engagement and
purchasing
~65%Current operating rate vs
typical average ~77%
~0.6MmtEstimated reduction in DAP
inventory since Jan 1 (~41%)
Market Factors to Watch
Phosphate demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017
2017 Guidance1
1 As at April 26, 20172 Does not include capitalized interest3 As a percentage of potash gross margin4 Includes income from dividends and share of equity earnings
Source: PotashCorp
Slide #14
Potash sales volumes 8.9-9.4 million tonnes
Potash gross margin $600-$800 million
Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin $150-$400 million
Capital expenditures 2 ~$600 million
Effective tax rate 2-5 percent
Provincial mining and other taxes 3 17-20 percent
Selling and administrative expenses $220-$230 million
Finance costs $225-$235 million
Income from equity investments 4 $150-$170 million
Annual foreign exchange rate assumption CDN$1.33 per US$
Annual EPS sensitivity to foreign exchangeUS$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 =
+$0.01 EPS
Annual EPS sensitivity to potash prices Increases by $20 per tonne = +$0.14 EPS
Annual earnings per share $0.45-$0.65
Slide #15
Learn More Online…
PotashCorp.com
Contact Us
Investors
(306) 933-8500
Denita Stann
Senior VP, Investor & Public Relations
Jeff Holzman
Senior Director, Investor Relations & Sustainability
Ryan Shacklock
Director, Investor Relations
Tim McMillan
Manager, Investor Relations
Media
(306) 933-8849
Randy Burton
Director, Public Relations & Communications
PotashCorp.com