potashcorp 2017 q1 conference call

16
PotashCorp.com Q1 2017 Conference Call April 27, 2017

Upload: potashcorp

Post on 23-Jan-2018

1.021 views

Category:

Investor Relations


0 download

TRANSCRIPT

Page 1: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

PotashCorp.com

Q1 2017 Conference Call

April 27, 2017

Page 2: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Forward-looking Statements

Slide #2

This presentation contains “forward-looking statements" (within the meaning of the US Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) or “forward-looking

information” (within the meaning of applicable Canadian securities legislation) that relate to future events or our future performance. These statements can be

identified by expressions of belief, expectation or intention, as well as those statements that are not historical fact. These statements often contain words such as

“should,” “could,” “expect,” “forecast,” “may,” “anticipate,” “believe,” “intend,” “estimates,” “plans” and similar expressions. These statements are based on certain

factors and assumptions as set forth in this document, including with respect to: foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance,

business prospects and opportunities, including the completion of the proposed merger of equals with Agrium, and effective tax rates. While we consider these

factors and assumptions to be reasonable based on information currently available, they may prove to be incorrect. Forward-looking statements are subject to risks

and uncertainties that are difficult to predict. The results or events set forth in forward-looking statements may differ materially from actual results or events. Several

factors could cause our actual results or events to differ materially from those expressed in forward-looking statements including, but not limited to, the following: our

proposed merger of equals transaction with Agrium, including the failure to satisfy all required conditions, including required regulatory approvals, or to satisfy or

obtain waivers with respect to all other closing conditions in a timely manner and on favorable terms or at all; the occurrence of any event, change or other

circumstances that could give rise to the termination of the arrangement agreement; certain costs that we may incur in connection with the proposed merger of

equals; certain restrictions in the arrangement agreement on our ability to take action outside the ordinary course of business without the consent of Agrium; the

effect of the announcement of the proposed merger of equals on our ability to retain customers, suppliers and personnel and on our operating future business and

operations generally; risks related to diversion of management time from ongoing business operations due to the proposed merger of equals; failure to realize the

anticipated benefits of the proposed merger of equals and to successfully integrate Agrium and PotashCorp; the risk that our credit ratings may be downgraded or

there may be adverse conditions in the credit markets; the results of our impairment assessment regarding the carrying value of certain assets; variations from our

assumptions with respect to foreign exchange rates, expected growth, results of operations, performance, business prospects and opportunities, and effective tax

rates; fluctuations in supply and demand in the fertilizer, sulfur and petrochemical markets; changes in competitive pressures, including pricing pressures; risks and

uncertainties related to any operating and workforce changes made in response to our industry and the markets we serve, including mine and inventory shutdowns;

adverse or uncertain economic conditions and changes in credit and financial markets; economic and political uncertainty around the world; changes in capital

markets; the results of sales contract negotiations within major markets; unexpected or adverse weather conditions; risks related to reputational loss; the occurrence

of a major safety incident; inadequate insurance coverage for a significant liability; our inability to obtain relevant permits for our operations; catastrophic events or

malicious acts, including terrorism; certain complications that may arise in our mining process, including water inflows; risks and uncertainties related to our

international operations and assets; our ownership of non-controlling equity interests in other companies; our prospects to reinvest capital in strategic opportunities

and acquisitions; risks associated with natural gas and other hedging activities; security risks related to our information technology systems; imprecision in reserve

estimates; costs and availability of transportation and distribution for our raw materials and products, including railcars and ocean freight; changes in, and the effects

of, government policies and regulations; earnings and the decisions of taxing authorities which could affect our effective tax rates; increases in the price or reduced

availability of the raw materials that we use; our ability to attract, develop, engage and retain skilled employees; strikes or other forms of work stoppage or

slowdowns; rates of return on, and the risks associated with, our investments and capital expenditures; timing and impact of capital expenditures; the impact of

further innovation; adverse developments in pending or future legal proceedings or government investigations; and violations of our governance and compliance

policies. These risks and uncertainties are discussed in more detail under the headings “Risk Factors” and “Management’s Discussion and Analysis of Results and

Operations and Financial Condition” in our Annual Report on Form 10-K for the fiscal year ended December 31, 2016 and in other documents and reports

subsequently filed by us with the US Securities and Exchange Commission and the Canadian provincial securities commissions. Forward-looking statements are

given only as of the date hereof and we disclaim any obligation to update or revise any forward-looking statements in this release, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise, except as required by law.

Page 3: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Performance

Page 4: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Key Highlights

• First-quarter earnings of $0.18 per share1

• Cash provided by operating activities of $223 million

• Rocanville ramp-up well underway; on track to reduce company-wide potash cost of

goods sold by approximately $10 per tonne in 2017

• Full-year 2017 guidance increased to $0.45-$0.65 per share, including merger-related

costs of $0.05 per share

• Market value of investments2 approximately $4.5 billion, or $5 per PotashCorp share3

1 All references to per-share amounts pertain to diluted net income per share2 Arab Potash Company, Israel Chemicals Ltd., Sinofert Holdings Limited, and Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile S.A.3 As of market close on April 26, 2017

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #4

Page 5: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Higher Gross Margin Due Primarily to Lower COGS, Improved Potash Sales Volumes

Quarterly Gross Margin Comparison (Q1-17 vs. Q1-16)

$234

$268

$72

-$10

-$28

0

90

180

270

360

Q12016

Potash Nitrogen Phosphate Q12017

US$ Millions

Potash

• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – higher prices in North America

more than offset by weaker realizations in standard-grade markets

• Higher Sales Volumes – Significantly stronger engagement in offshore

markets

• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Optimization of production to lower-cost

mines and absence of suspension-related costs at our Picadilly facility

Nitrogen

• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – Weaker benchmark prices for

most products due to increased global supply

• Slightly Lower Sales Volumes – Reduced industrial demand and

seasonal weakness for solutions

• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Lower natural gas costs in Trinidad and

smaller hedging losses

Phosphate

• Lower Average Realized Sales Price – Lower benchmark prices for all

product categories

• Lower Sales Volumes – Primarily weaker demand for liquid fertilizers

• Lower Cost of Goods Sold – Lower input costs and absence of non-

cash impairment charges

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #5

Page 6: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Source: PotashCorp

2017Q1 Q2

2016

Suspended potash

operations at Picadilly, NB

2.0 mmt of nameplate capacity

Announced Inventory

Shutdowns

at Allan & Lanigan

Q3

Reduced quarterly

dividend

to $0.10/share

Reduced quarterly dividend

to $0.25/share

Q4 Q1

2017

Rocanville Ramp-up

Expect Canpotex allocation

increase for 2H 2017

Hammond Warehouse/

Distribution Centre

Complete

enhancing US

distribution

Commitment to a Proactive Approach; Merger Expected to Close Mid-2017

Recent and Upcoming Event Timeline

Announced Merger of

Equals with Agrium

Expect up to $500M in

annual synergies

Shareholders

overwhelmingly

voted to approve

merger with Agrium

Q2 Q3

Slide #6

Merger Regulatory Review and

Integration Planning ProcessesExpect to be complete in mid-2017

Announced Operational

Changes & Inventory

Shutdowns

move to white potash

only at Cory

Page 7: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Outlook

Page 8: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

• Strong barter ratios

supporting record

fertilizer demand

• Acreage expansion to

continue although at

slower pace

Latin

America

• Palm oil prices at very

supportive levels

• Plantations implement

yield recovery

programs following

drought in 2016

Other Asia

• Better moisture

conditions contributed

to increased Rabi crop

acreage and improved

fertilizer demand

• Shifting nutrient

subsidies likely to

continue to weigh on

demand growth

Corn

(US$/bu)

$3.83$3.77

Supportive Agriculture Fundamentals in Most Key Regions

• Farm consolidation

supporting improved

fertilization practices;

continued shift to high-

value, nutrient-intensive

crops

• Government reducing

subsidized local prices,

most notably for corn

• Potential pull back in

corn acres and increase

in soybeans could be

slight headwind for

nitrogen and neutral for

phosphate and potash

• Strong fertilizer

affordability supports

application rates

Selected Crop Prices

Source: S&P Global Market Intelligence

North

AmericaChinaIndia

Soybean (US$/bu)

$9.67$10.11$0.16

Sugar

(US$/lbs)

$0.17

Palm Oil (MYR/mt)

2,4712,441

Regional Highlights

* As at April 24, 2017

Global Agriculture Backdrop

No

v’1

7

Oct’1

7

No

v’1

7

Slide #8

De

c’1

7

Futures3-Year Average

Page 9: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Potash Shipments by Region

Source: Fertecon, CRU, Industry Publications, PotashCorp

Expect Demand of 61-64 Million Tonnes in 2017

0

5

10

15

20

14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F 14 15 16 17F

India

Note: Shaded bars represent shipment forecast range as of April 26, 2017.

3.8 – 4.3Mmt

• Potentially higher

retail prices likely to

result in limited

demand growth

Other Asia

9.0 – 9.5Mmt

• Demand supported by

robust crop

economics and

improved moisture

conditions

North America

9.3 – 9.8Mmt

• Supportive nutrient

prices and significant

removal of nutrients

following record crop

expected to support

demand

Latin America

11.7 – 12.2Mmt

• Agronomic need,

favorable crop

economics and lower

inventories expected

to support demand

growth

China

14.5 – 15.5Mmt

• Strong consumption

trends expected to

support demand

growth

20

17

Hig

hli

gh

ts

(Million Tonnes KCl)

Previous Record:

6.3mmt (2010)

Previous Record:

9.5mmt (2014)

Previous Record:

11.1mmt (1997)

Previous Record:

11.7mmt (2014)

Previous Record:

15.8mmt (2015)

Slide #9

Page 10: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F

Fruits & Vegetables

Grains & Oilseeds

Other Crops

Potash Consumption

Global Crop Production and Potash Consumption

Production of Nutrient Intensive Crops Underpins Potash Consumption Growth

Source: Fertecon, CRU, USDA, FAO, PotashCorp

Other crops include fiber crops, pulses, roots and tubers.

2001-2016

CAGR

F & V

2.8% 2.3%

G & O

1.6%

Other

2.7%

Potash

Slide #10

Crop Production Million Tonnes

Potash Consumption Million Tonnes KCl Equivalent

Page 11: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Source: Fertecon, CRU, IFA, PotashCorp

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017F 2019F 2021F

Shipments

POT Shipment Forecast Range

Operational Capability*

Expect Relatively Balanced Supply/Demand Over Medium Term

Global Potash Supply and Demand

* Estimated annual achievable production level from existing operations; announced probable and possible projects; assuming typical ramp-up

periods for new capacity. Probable and possible projects based on PotashCorp’s view of project probabilities.

Slide #11

(Million Tonnes KCl)

Page 12: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

2017 Ammonia Capacity Changes* Million Tonnes

Source: CRU, Fertecon, Company Reports, PotashCorp

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017

** Based on industry consultant estimates

Global Nitrogen Market Overview

New Capacity Causing Volatility Although China To Remain Swing Capacity

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

L. America

Africa

Russia

Other Asia

US

China**

Middle East

Slide #12

Net Additions = +6.2 Mmt (~3%)

Estimated change

in Y-o-Y Chinese

urea exports

~60%Current operating rate vs

typical average ~75%

Chinese

operating rates**

at historical lows

~3-5MmtEstimated reduction in urea

exports from China

Market Factors to Watch

Chinese idled

urea capacity**

~8%Proportion of total Chinese

urea capacity idled

Ammonia demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017

Page 13: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

2017 Phosphate Capacity Additions*Million Tonnes P2O5

Source: CRU, Katana, Profercy, PotashCorp

Global Phosphate Market Overview

New Low-cost Capacity Anticipated, Although Near-term Support for Market

Chinese

operating rates**

at historical lows

42% Morocco

Other

23%

35%

Saudi Arabia

Net Additions = +1.5 Mmt P2O5 (~3%)

* Based on industry consultant estimates; capacity is prorated for start-up timing in 2017

** Based on industry consultant estimates

Slide #13

Greater Indian

engagement and

purchasing

~65%Current operating rate vs

typical average ~77%

~0.6MmtEstimated reduction in DAP

inventory since Jan 1 (~41%)

Market Factors to Watch

Phosphate demand growth projected at ~2% in 2017

Page 14: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

2017 Guidance1

1 As at April 26, 20172 Does not include capitalized interest3 As a percentage of potash gross margin4 Includes income from dividends and share of equity earnings

Source: PotashCorp

Slide #14

Potash sales volumes 8.9-9.4 million tonnes

Potash gross margin $600-$800 million

Nitrogen and phosphate gross margin $150-$400 million

Capital expenditures 2 ~$600 million

Effective tax rate 2-5 percent

Provincial mining and other taxes 3 17-20 percent

Selling and administrative expenses $220-$230 million

Finance costs $225-$235 million

Income from equity investments 4 $150-$170 million

Annual foreign exchange rate assumption CDN$1.33 per US$

Annual EPS sensitivity to foreign exchangeUS$ strengthens vs. CDN$ by $0.02 =

+$0.01 EPS

Annual EPS sensitivity to potash prices Increases by $20 per tonne = +$0.14 EPS

Annual earnings per share $0.45-$0.65

Page 15: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

Slide #15

Learn More Online…

Page 16: PotashCorp 2017 Q1 Conference Call

PotashCorp.com

Contact Us

Investors

[email protected]

(306) 933-8500

Denita Stann

Senior VP, Investor & Public Relations

Jeff Holzman

Senior Director, Investor Relations & Sustainability

Ryan Shacklock

Director, Investor Relations

Tim McMillan

Manager, Investor Relations

Media

[email protected]

(306) 933-8849

Randy Burton

Director, Public Relations & Communications

PotashCorp.com