Janusz Cofala and Markus AmannCentre for Integrated Assessment Modelling (CIAM)International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Application of GAINS model for integrated assessment of air pollution in Europe and in

non-European EECCA countries

Policy applications of RAINS/GAINS in Europe

• GAINS/RAINS for air pollution

Protocols to the LRTAP Convention:

- 2nd S Protocol, Gothenburg Protocol and its revision

Support to EU policies:

- CAFE Programme and Thematic Strategy on Air Pollution (TSAP)

- National Emission Ceilings (NEC) Directive and its revision

- Air pollution consequences of updated EU energy scenarios

• GAINS for climate policy analysis- Non-CO2 cost curves for Climate and Energy Package (C&E)

- Air pollution effects of carbon capture and storage (CCS) scenarios

- Co-benefits on air pollution for C&E Package

Targets from the EU Thematic Strategy on AP

Indicator Unit Improvement relative to 2000

Life years lost from particulate matter (YOLLs)

Years of life lost 47%

Area of forest ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km2 74%

Area of freshwater ecosystems where acid deposition exceeds the critical loads for acidification km2 39%

Ecosystems area where nitrogen deposition exceeds the critical loads for eutrophication km2 43%

Premature mortality from ozoneNumber of cases 10%

Revision of the NEC Directive

• Targets to be achieved in 2020 based on

– C&E energy package scenario (PRIMES)

– National projections (or CAPRI results) for agriculture

• Ceilings determined with GAINS optimization routine

– Starting point: “Current policies” emission control legislation

Revision of the NEC Directive – emissions reduction

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

SO2 NOx PM2.5 NH3 VOC

2000 2020 Baseline 2020 NEC

Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months

2020 (4.2 months)

2000 (8 months)

Forest area with acid deposition above critical loads, %

2020 (3% of total)

2000 (19 % of total)

GAINS coverage

• Emissions and costs modules:– All larger countries included– Russia: four regions for the European part, for Asian part

of Russia available by oblast– Calculations can be done on-line

• Optimization and impact modules implemented for Europe, China and India

• GHG mitigation efforts calculator available for all Annex I countries

Inclusion of EECCA countries

• Russia, Belarus, Ukraine, Moldova– (some) contacts with national experts

• Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic.– No contacts with national teams

• Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, Uzbekistan aggregated to “Other FSU Asia”– No contacts with national teams

Emission scenarios for EECCA countriesEconomic activities

Energy– National scenarios supplied by experts from Russia (2002) and

Ukraine (2004)– Other countries IEA energy statistics, projections based on

scaling down of SRES B2 scenario

Agriculture– FAO statistics and projections

Emission scenarios for EECCA countriesControl measures

Baseline: • controls only for PM from stationary sources

“With measures” scenario:• FGD for new and retrofit of 50% of old power plants in 2020• Low sulphur fuels: 1% heavy fuel oil, 0.1% light fuel oil, 0.05%

diesel• Industrial processes: -50% SO2 , -40% NOx, PM as current

standards for new Member States • Primary NOx measures for boilers • Euro 4/IV for new vehicles• Improved electrostatic precipitators for large boilers

Maximum reductions included in RAINS (MRR)• All technical end-of-pipe controls• No pre-mature scrapping of existing installations• Does not include structural and behavioural changes

EECCA - emissions of air pollutants and CO2 in 2000 and 2020

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1

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7

SO2 NOx PM2.5 CO2

10^6

tons

, CO

2 in

10^

9ton

s

2000 Baseline With Measures MRR

EECCA - emissions of SO2 in 2020 by country relative to 2000

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20%

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160%

Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.

Moldova RussianFed.

Ukraine EECCA

Baseline With Meas. MRR

EECCA - emissions of NOx in 2020 by country relative to 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.

Moldova RussianFed.

Ukraine EECCA

Baseline With Meas. MRR

EECCA - emissions of PM2.5 in 2020 by country relative to 2000

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

120%

140%

160%

Armenia Belarus FSU Asia Georgia Kazakhstan KyrgyzRep.

Moldova RussianFed.

Ukraine EECCA

Baseline With Meas. MRR

Loss in statistical life expectancydue to anthropogenic PM2.5

Baseline projection 2020 With measures scenario 2020

Data needs for further improvement

• Macroeconomic projections• Projections of emission generating activities:

– Energy – Transport– Agricultural projections (livestock numbers)– Activities of heavy industries– Growth of NMVOC generating sectors

• Fuel quality, country-specific emission and cost factors• ‘Current legislation’ penetration of control technologies

Also (if possible)• Potentials for switching to energy efficient and low CO2

technologies

Conclusions

• GAINS has been used in many policy-relevant studies at the CLRTAP and EU level

• Depending on the purpose, different model features are applied• Preliminary databases and assessment available also for EECCA

countries• Data and results can be viewed via the internet• Tutorial is available also in Russian• Important updates of database for EECCA countries needed• Can be done only in close collaboration national experts

PLEASE HELP!!!

Пожалуйста помогите!!!

More information:http://www.iiasa.ac.at/rains

Access to the on-line model:http://gains.iiasa.ac.at/gains/