rains review 2004 the rains model: health impacts of pm

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RAINS review 2004 The RAINS model: Health impacts of PM

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RAINS review 2004

The RAINS model:

Health impacts of PM

Main issues

• Methodology for health impact assessment

• Dispersion modelling for PM

• Quantification of population exposure in cities

• Uncertainties

Estimating the loss of life expectancy in RAINSApproach

• Endpoint:

– Loss in statistical life expectancy

– Related to long-term PM2.5 exposure, based on cohort studies

• Life tables provide baseline mortality for each cohort in each country

• For a given PM scenario: Mortality modified through Cox proportional hazard model using Relative Risk (RR) factors from literature

• From modified mortality, calculate life expectancy for each cohort and for entire population

Input to life expectancy calculation

• Life tables (by country)

• Population data by cohort and country, 2000-2050

• Urban/rural population in each 50*50 km grid cell

• Air quality data: annual mean concentrations

– PM2.5 (sulfates, nitrates, ammonium, primary particles), excluding SOA, natural sources

– alternatively PMcoarse, PM10, black carbon

– 50*50 km over Europe, rural + urban background

– for any emission scenario 1990-2020

• Relative risk factors

Critical assumptions reviewed by TF on Health

• Choice of appropriate RR and shape of C-R curve

• Mortality related to PM2.5 (mass)

• PM2.5 includes effects from SO2, NO2, carbonaceous, diesel

• Are ozone effects independent? (SOA are excluded, thus no potential double-counting of ozone effects)

• Extrapolation beyond 35 μg/m3 PM2.5

• Treatment of natural background

• Exposure calculation: (Urban) background concentrations (annual mean) * population

• No effects for younger than 30 years

• Quantification of uncertainties (CI of RR, alternative impact theories, potential biases, linearity, etc.)

• Regional scale

• Urban scale

• Uncertainties

Modelling of health-relevant PM formation and transport in the atmosphere

Atmospheric dispersion of PM

• Health-relevant metric: annual mean PM2.5 mass

• Performance of EMEP Eulerian model for PM

– TFMM 2003 review:

• Rural sulphates: ok.

• Rural nitrates: observations missing, model probably ok.

• Anthropogenic primary PM: to be demonstrated

• Secondary organic aerosols: missing

• Natural contributions: missing

– Thus: not able to reproduce observed total PM mass, but possible to track PM changes due to anthropogenic emissions

S-R relations for RAINS

Linearity of changes in PM due to changes in emissions is crucial for the mathematical design of RAINS

• 87 model experiments with the new EMEP model:

– Response of European PM2.5/10 concentrations to changes in SO2, NOx, VOC, NH3, PPM2.5/10 emissions

– For German, Italian, Dutch, UK and European emissions

– 3 emission scenarios:

• CLE (current legislation 2010) = CAFE baseline for 2010

• MFR (maximum technically feasible reductions 2010

• UFR (ultimately feasible reductions) = MFR/2

Response of PM2.5 due to ΔPPM2.5from German emissions

Response of SIA due to ΔSO2

from German emissions

Response of SIA due to ΔNOx

from German emissions

Response of SIA due to ΔNH3

from German emissions

Response of SIA due to ΔVOCfrom German emissions

Response of SIA due to ΔSO2+ΔNOx+ΔNH3+ΔVOC+ ΔPPM

Response of PM2.5 due to ΔSO2+ΔNOx+ΔNH3+ΔVOC+ ΔPPM

– Regional scale

– Urban scale

– Uncertainties

Modelling of health-relevant PM formation and transport in the atmosphere

City-Delta objectives

• Identify systematic differences in urban AQ results computed by

– regional scale models

– urban scale models.

• Identify differences in model results (deltas) across

– Emissions (2000, 2010, maximum feasible reductions),

– cities in Europe,

– scales,

– models,

– pollutants (PM, O3, for health-relevant metrics).

• 17 models, 8 cities, 9 scenarios

Changes in urban PM10Results from City-Delta1

PM10 as a function of emission density

PM10 concentration as a function of emission density,

primary PM10 from UK road transport (2001)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5

PM10 emission density, t km -2 yr-1

5 km x 5 km

[PM

10],

ug

m-3

Roadside sites

Urban sites

Rural sites

PM10 concentration as a function of emission density,

primary PM10 from UK road transport (2001)

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

0 1 2 3 4 5

PM10 emission density, t km -2 yr-1

5 km x 5 km

[PM

10],

ug

m-3

Roadside sites

Urban sites

Rural sites

“Urban impact” on PM2.5 in ViennaSource: Puxbaum et al., 2003

Urban Impact PM2.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jun-

99

Jul-9

9

Aug-9

9

Sep-9

9

Oct-99

Nov-9

9

Dec-9

9

Jan-

00

Feb-0

0

Mar

-00

Apr-0

0

May

-00

µg

/m³ NH4, SO4

Na, CaOCBC

Urban Impact PM2.5

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Jun-

99

Jul-9

9

Aug-9

9

Sep-9

9

Oct-99

Nov-9

9

Dec-9

9

Jan-

00

Feb-0

0

Mar

-00

Apr-0

0

May

-00

µg

/m³ NH4, SO4

Na, CaOCBC

– Regional scale

– Urban scale

– Uncertainties

Modelling of health-relevant PM formation and transport in the atmosphere

Euro-Delta model inter-comparison

• Evaluate the performance of regional-scale atmospheric dispersion models against observations

• Identify differences in model results (deltas) across

– emissions (2000, 2010, maximum feasible reductions),

– regions in Europe,

– models,

– pollutants.

• Put the EMEP model performance into perspective, derive quantitative information for uncertainty analysis

Annual mean PM2.5 and sulphate levels (μg/m3)9 German sites, as computed by the Euro-Delta models

PM2.5 Sulphate

Observations are shown in black

PM2.5 responses of the Euro-Delta models

Receptor regions:

00 .. Europe01 .. Austria08 .. France09 .. Germany12 .. Italy 14 .. Netherlands19 .. Spain

22 .. British Isles

Further work

• Develop regional source-receptor (S-R) relationships for PM

• Complete City-Delta analysis for PM, develop urban-regional SR relationships

• Investigate inter-annual meteorological variability

• Quantify uncertainties, explore use of ensemble-model

• Finalize uncertainty analysis for health-impact analysis