Application of IIASA GAINS Model for Integrated Assessment of Air Pollution

in Europe

Janusz CofalaInternational Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA)

Methodology

GAINS model: GHG-Air pollution Interactions and SynergiesObjectives

Integrated assessment of international emission control strategies:

• Quantification of national emission control potentials and costs

• For exogenous projections of activities

• Balancing of efforts across countries/economic sectors for

– different objective functions, and

– different exogenous constraints

• Considering interactions between GHGs and air pollutants

• Taking into account co-benefits between air pollution control and GHG mitigation

GAINS integrates multiple pollutants and their multiple effects

Emissions and control measures

for air pollutants

PMBCOC

SO2 NOx VOC NH3

Impacts

Health impacts: from fine particulate matter

from ground-level ozone Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops)

Acidification (forests, water)

Eutrophication (biodiversity)

Emissions and control measures

for air pollutants and greenhouse gases

PMBCOC

SO2 NOx VOC NH3 CO2 CH4 N2OHFCsPFCsSF6

Impacts

Health impacts: from fine particulate matter ()

from ground-level ozone ()Vegetation damage: Ozone (agricultural crops) ()

Acidification (forests, water)

Eutrophication (biodiversity) Radiative forcing: - from direct greenhouse gases

- via aerosols and ozone () () () () () ()

Building blocks of GAINS

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions

Costs

PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, nat. projections

Simulation/“Scenario analysis” mode

The GAINS optimization mode

Energy/agricultural projections

Emissions

Emission control options

Atmospheric dispersion

Costs

Environmental targets

OPTIMIZATION

PRIMES, POLES, CAPRI,IEA, national projections

Air pollution impacts,Basket of GHG emissions

Applications for the Revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

Protocol to Abate Acidification, Eutrophication and

Ground-level Ozone

• Adopted in November 1999, 26 parties, entered in force in May 2005

• Sets country-specific emission ceilings for 2010 for SO2, NOx, VOCs, and NH3

• Reductions in Europe (relative to 1990): – SO2 – 63%,

– NOx – 41%

– VOC – 40%

– NH3 – 17%.

• Based on RAINS analysis

• Benefits: – Less ecosystems with excessive acidification (78 Mha) and eutrophication

(57Mha)

– Number of days with excessive ozone levels halved

– 47,500 fewer premature deaths

– Exposure of vegetation to ozone 44% lower

• Currently under revision; GAINS used as a scientific tool

Current and future (2020) emissions of air pollutants in Europe and Russia, kilotons

02000400060008000

100001200014000160001800020000

SO2 NOx PM 2.5 NH3 VOC

2000 Baseline Max. Reductions

Europe

Russia – European part

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

SO2 NOx PM 2.5 NH3 VOC

2000 Baseline Max. Reductions

Loss of life expectancy due to anthropogenic sources of PM2.5, months

2020 Baseline (4.7 months)

2000 (8.2 months)

Emission control costs of further reductions in health effects of PM

Loss in statistical life expectancy - base year and optimized 75% reduction in health effects from PM

Costs for achieving 75% improvement of health effects from PM

Use of GAINS to explore co-benefits of climate policy for air pollution

Low carbon strategies have significant co-benefits

Low CO2 strategies result in

less SO2, NOx and PM

emissions,

lower damage to health and vegetation from reduced air pollution,

cost savings for air pollution control equipment, which compensate (part of) GHG mitigation costs.

CO2 emissions vs. health impacts (YOLLs)

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

-30% -25% -20% -15% -10% -5% 0%

Change in CO2 emissions compared to baseline

Ch

an

ge in

loss

in

sta

tist

ical lif

e e

xpect

an

cy

com

pare

d t

o b

ase

line

● EU-27 ● China ● India

On-line calculator on the Internet

Why actively participate in integrated assessment ?

1. Better understanding of preparatory work for the revision of the Gothenburg Protocol

2. Correcting current information in GAINS3. Possibility of analyzing effects of national pathways and control

strategies like: - different demand for energy, - emission reductions, their environmental impacts and costs of technologies from technical annexes - effects of grace periods or derogations in technology implementation

4. Analysis of co-benefits of climate scenarios for air pollution

5. Analysis of costs of reduction of GHG (GAINS GHG Mitigation Efforts Calculator)

The GAINS model is freely accessible on the Internet: http://gains.iiasa.ac.at

• Access to on-line versions:– Europe– China and East Asia– South Asia– Annex I countries

• Policy reports, user tutorials,model documentation.