Air Pollution and Carbon Sink

M. Obersteiner, V. Stolbovoi, S. Nilsson

IIASA - FOR

Ou

tpu

t

Carbon Management:Integrated Approach

Natural Natural

AttributesAttributes GIS CoveragesGIS Coverages

Climate & VegetationClimate & Vegetation

Relief & SoilsRelief & SoilsDatabasesDatabases

Water & MineralsWater & Minerals

DecreaseDecrease

Changes in Carbon sink

Changes in Carbon sink

IncreaseIncrease

Socio-economicSocio-economic

Land UseLand Use

People & InstitutionsPeople & Institutions

Imp

ac t

Air Pollution

LU

LU

CF

car

bon

cred

its

Carbon Sink (green) and Source (red) Regions

(analysis by 1x1 km grid)

Based on IPCC (2001) and Steffen et al. (1998)

GPP

120 Gt C yr-1

Atmospheric Pool

Geological Pool

Plant Respirati

on

60 Gt C yr -1

NPP60 Gt C yr-1

Decomposition

50 Gt C yr -1

NEP10 Gt C yr-1

Fossil Fuels

6 Gt C yr -1

Disturbance

9 Gt C yr -1

NBP±1 Gt C yr-1

Carbon Flux Inventory for Boreal Zone (Mt)

ForestsGrass &Shrubs

WetlandsSwamps&Bogs

Agriculture

--17071707

--321321

NPPNPP+138+138

66

HSHSRR

--575575

--12021202

NPPNPP+627+627

HSHSRR

+11+1188

-487-487NPPNPP

+605+605HSHSRR

--381381

-957-957NPPNPP

+576+576HSHSRR

+13+1388

Disturbances & HarvestHarvest

+68+6822

ConsumptiConsumptionon

121121

HumificationHumification

2020

LithosphereLithosphere

5959HydrospherHydrospheree

1212

HCO3

ASSIMILATIONCARBON

SINK

Rate

Duration

Sensitivity

Resilience

MAINTENANCEPro

cess

esP

rope

rtie

sIm

plic

atio

ns

STORAGE DEFENCE

Transport Conversion Mobilization

Respiration

Turnover

Level

Chemistry

Distribution

dir. Resiliance

Amount

Partitioning

Timing

Indirect Resilience

Reduced assimilate supply Increased suceptibility to biotic and abiotic stresses

Decreased Production

Altered Community Dynamics

Increasingly mechanistic

Increasingly integrative

Biochemical level Cellular level Whole plant level Species level Community level

GPPNBP

The Integrator- Growth of (woody) plants

• Shoots– Leaves– Cambium

• Roots and Rhizosphere Symbionts

• Reproductive growth

• Changes in the carbon partitioning pattern

Ecosystem response

• Structural and altered community dynamics• Higher Risks

– Biotic (insect, pests and diseases)– Abiotic

• Drought (also if cuticula or impaired stomatal closure is injured winter desiccation)

• Wind • Cold hardiness• Fire

Factors affecting responseHazard Vulnerability

Species and genotyp *

Pollutant dosage & frequency *

Types & combination *

Stress tolerance mex. *

Plant age *

Interact with diseases *

Environmental regime *

Vulnerability Management

• Earlier removal & Short rotation species• Less vulnerable species (less productive)• Fertilization• Mono height stands (decrease interceptive surface)• Calamity management (decreased stocking for fire

prevention)• ….

Risk managementdecrease carbon stock in forest AND its permanence,

digression in ecosystem value and higher costs

Management for Carbon Sinks

Catena Differentiation

Water Transport

Sedimentation

Translocation

Living Biomass

Vegetation

Organic-Mineral Phase

Underground Detritus

Surface Detritus

Soil

Maintenance Production

Medium-term Conservation

Landscape Diversity

Long-term Conservation

Products

Short-term Conservation

Quantification and Verification

• Level: Quantifying the sink strength

• Change: Temporal verification of air pollution effect is possible, but attribution is difficult (link to carbon market).

• However, management options are numerous and effective (3.3 in SRES)

Carbon market and Air pollutionStylised examples

• Case 1: Russian forest fire in 1998

• Case 2: Who pays for the lost removal - Austria

• Case 3: Environmental additionality - JI in Poland

Conclusion

• Yes, there are clear and quantitatively important linkages

• Methodology: Risk augmented cost / benefit

• Land management is local and multiple criteria – Consistency with MCPFE, BdConv., Food

supply

C-N Vegetation Pools(Biomass Production)

Lithosphere Hydrosphere

Atmosphere

C-N Detritus Pools(Litter fall and Decay)

N-uptake

(Humification& Mineralization)

(N-fixation& nitrification-dinitrification)

N-nutrients supply

C-N gases from soil respiration

C-uptakeC-N gases from consumption-disturbances

C-N gases from detritus decay

C-N solubles from detritus decay

C-N solubles from pedogenesis

C-N Soil Pools

C-N input into soil

Biosphere

The FOR Model for Biogenic (CO2 ,CH4 ,N2O) GHG Inventory (BIGIN):Principle C-N Pools, Processes (in brackets) and fluxes (arrows)