Innovation & Breakthroughs

on the Road to Abundance Peter H. Diamandis, MD

November 2013

Live Tweeting? I’m

@PeterDiamandis

Live Tweeting? I’m @PeterDiamandis

Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius

Human development over 150,000+ years…

LOCAL + LINEAR

EXPONENTIAL + GLOBAL

Human development over 150,000+ years…

Disruptive Stress

/Opportunity

EXPONENTIAL LINEAR

1996

MarketCap: $28B

Employees: 140,000

2012

Bankrupt

Employees: 17,000

April 2012

MarketCap: $1B

Employees: 13

The New “Kodak Moment”

In 10 years, it’s predicted that

40% of the Future 500 Companies

will no longer exist.

* Babson Olin School of Business, Fast Company April 2011, page 121.

EXPONENTIAL LINEAR

EXPONENTIAL LINEAR

“The average lifespan of an

S&P 500 company has decreased from:

67 years (1920’s) 15 years (today)”

- Richard Foster, Yale University

Singularity University – 10^9+ NASA – AUTODESK – GOOGLE – CISCO– NOKIA – GENENTECH – KAUFFMAN

www.SingularityU.org

Mountain View, California

Crowd/Community Tools

1. Incentive Competitions

2. (Big) Data Mining

3. Gamification

4. DIY Communities

5. On Demand Workforce

6. Crowd Creativity

7. Crowd Funding

Exponential Technology

1. Computation/Networks

2. Artificial Intelligence

3. Robotics

4. 3D Printing

5. Synthetic Biology

6. Digital Medicine

EXPONENTIAL LINEAR

Innovation Partnership Program

What does EXPONENTIAL growth feel like?

Take 30 paces… LINEAR

01 02

03 04

05 06

07 08

09 10

11 12

13

30 meters

01 02 04 08 16 32 64 128 256

… 1,073,741,824 meters

26X around the Earth!

Take 30 steps…

EXPONENTIAL

“6D’s” – Exponential Framework

Digitized (Information Tech)

Deceptive

Dematerialize

Demonetize

Democratize

Disruptive

Deceptive & Disruptive

0 0.01

1 0.02

2 0.04

3 0.08

4 0.16

5 0.32

6 0.64

7 1.28

8 2.56

9 5.12

10 10.2

11 20.5

12 40.9

13 81.9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

150

140

130

120

110

100

90

80

70

60

50

40

30

20

10

0 0.01

1 0.02

2 0.04

3 0.08

4 0.16

5 0.32

6 0.64

7 1.28

8 2.56

9 5.12

10 10.2

11 20.5

12 40.9

13 81.9

Knee of Curve

Linear Trend Exponential Trend

Linear Vs. Exponential Growth

(Disruptive)

(Deceptive)

Dematerialization

… and come for

free on your

smart phone!

20 Years later…

All of these fit in

your pocket…

Demonetization

Classifieds

Record Stores

Local Stores

Research/Libraries

Book Stores

Long Distance

Democratization

African Mobile Growth: >1B by 2016

Calc

ula

tio

ns/S

ec p

er

$1000 c

om

pu

ter

Moore’s Law – 5th Paradigm of Exponential Growth

The exponential growth of

computing on a Logarithmic Plot Calc./second for a $1000 laptop vs. Time

Calc

ula

tions p

er

Se

co

nd

pe

r $

10

00

Year

2

6

2023

2050

2010

Recent News…

Technologies making the news: AI, Cloud Computing, Robotics, 3D Printing, Synthetic Biology

“WATSON vanquishes human opponents”

Artificial Intelligence

Artificial Intelligence

Infinite Computing •2,880 POWER7 processor cores;

•16 Terabytes of RAM

•200 million pages of content (Wikipedia)

•Process 1 million books per second

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Willow Garage – Scott Hassan Robotics

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics

6 Prius

3 RX450h

>300,000 miles

Legal in:

- Nevada

- California

- Florida

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Google’s Autonomous Car Robotics

LIDAR

64 lasers

10 RPM

1.3 mil datapoints or

750 Mbytes/second

Light Detection And Ranging)

LIDAR: Light Detection

& Ranging

Know Anything – Anytime

Light Detection And Ranging)

LEO Constellations

~ .5m global resolution

5 Known Constellations

Including Skybox

Quad Copter

~ 1 cm global resolution

Plummeting costs

Solar Powered

Google Glass

~ 1 mm global resolution

Paradigm Change: Robotics

Telepresence Robots – today’s “Transporter” Robotics

3D Printer = The Star Trek Replicator

3D Printing

Disrupting a $10 Trillion Manufacturing Industry

3D Printing

Good Enough To Eat HOSPITALITY | EVENTS | STORE | HOME

SOURCE: Fab@Home SOURCE:3DSYSTEMS

PRODUCTS TO BUY ACCESSORIES | SHOES | TOYS | DOLLS

SOURCE: GeoBeats Dolls: MakieLabs

Safe Enough To Implant

ORGANS | BONES | RESTORATIONS

SOURCE: ExplainingTheFuture.com SOURCE: Wake Forest

May 20, 2010

1st synthetic life

1.1 million Basepairs

Market:

FUEL & FOOD & VACCINES

Synthetic Biology

Critical Insight…

The only constant is change.

And, the rate of change is increasing.

1st Conclusion: You either disrupt your own company, or

someone else will. You must be constantly evolving your

business. Standing still = death.

2nd Conclusion: If you’re dependent on innovation solely from

inside your company, you will lose.

Question: How will you do this?

Exponential Technology Crowdsourcing Genius

Crowdsourcing Genius

• $10 Million purse

• Privately funded teams

• 3 person crew

• 100 km altitude

• Two flights within 2 weeks

ARCA Space Transport

Pablo DeLeon StarChaser Scaled Composites

DaVinci Project Canadian Arrow Rocketplane

Armadillo

Aerospace

WINNING THE ANSARI X PRIZE

• 26 Teams

• From 7 Nations

• Spending > $100 million

October 4th, 2004 Mojave Desert

Image from Video

OPENING A NEW ERA…

> 10 Billion Media Impressions Worth in Excess of $120 Million

VIDEO: Ansari X PRIZE (historical)

History Was Made

HALLMARKS OF AN X PRIZE COMPETITION

• HIGHLY LEVERAGED: Typically 10 – 40x

• EFFICIENT: only pays the winner

• Sparks NEW INDUSTRY development

• Non-traditional solutions

$2.5M – Start-up

St. Louis

$10M - Purse

Ansari Family

$1B+

Industry start

$100M

Teams’ spend

Board of Trustees & Benefactors

LARRY PAGE, CEO, Google

ELON MUSK CEO, Tesla & SpaceX

RAY KURZWEIL Inventor & Futurist

Dr. ANOUSHEH ANSARI Astronaut & CEO

DR. CRAIG VENTER, Genetic Pioneer

RATAN TATA Chairman of Tata Group

JIM GIANOPULOS Chairman/CEO, FOX

JAMES CAMERON Filmmaker and explorer

Jim Gianopulos

Jim Cameron

WENDY SCHMIDT Schmidt Family Fndtn

Wendy Schmidt

DEAN KAMEN, CEO, DEKA Research

Prize Groups

Energy &

Environment

Life Sciences Exploration Learning &

Global Dev.

$10M HEALTHCARE IN THE PALM OF YOUR HAND… FUNDED BY THE QUALCOMM FOUNDATION

Qualcomm Tricorder X PRIZE Team Distribution

300+ TOTAL TEAMS

37 NATIONS

16 from Canada

115 from USA

1 from Brazil

1 from Argentina

2 from Sweden 25 from UK

3 from Ireland

5 from Germany

1 from Switzerland

1 from Portugal

2 from Denmark 2 from Russia

1 from Czech Rep.

1 from Austria

2 from Bulgaria

2 from Italy

1 from Turkey

2 from Georgia

20 from India

1 from Yemen

1 from Saudi Arabia

1 from Kuwait

2 from China

4 from Singapore

2 from Australia

Does it have to be a $10M purse?

$1.4 million

Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min

$1.4 million

• 350 pre-registered teams

• 10 Finalists – head to head

7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement

Top Team = 6x Improvement

$1.4 million

• 350 pre-registered teams

• 10 Finalists – head to head

• Target: 2x the 1,100 Gallon/Min

7 of 10 finalists > 2x Improvement

Top Team = 6x Improvement

Where is X PRIZE

going next ?

Global Software Competition -- Reading & Coding in 2 Years

Health & Life Science X PRIZEs

Alzheimer's

Disease

Organo-

Genesis

Brain-Computer

Interface

* Concept only - Purse need funding

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

FORCE: Rising Billion

2000 2010 2020

GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)

6%

23%

66%

Global Population

Internet Users

3 BILLION NEW MINDS

What will 3 Billion New Minds…

create

consume

discover

desire invent

…Tens of trillions of annual PP

…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

Get a copy of my Briefing Slides

Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to:

+46-737-494-551

Exponential Tech Crowdsourcing Genius

ABUNDANCE

We are heading towards a world of Abundance…

Really?

ABUNDANCE:

The Future Is Better Than You Think #1 on Amazon; #2 on New York Times

AMYGDALA ALL VISUAL INFORMATION

ALL AUDIO INFORMATION

NAPOLEAN III THE KING OF SIAM AG SILVER

Au GOLD

AL ALUMINUM

ABUNDANCE: ENERGY

Solar – Exponential Change

Source: GTM Research

SOLAR PANELS AVG. PRICE PER WATT

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

1980 1990 2000 2010

1975-2012

97.2%

2012: 84¢

ANNUAL PV PRODUCTION MWATTS

0

1.000

2.000

3.000

4.000

5.000

6.000

7.000

8.000

1995 2000 2010 2005

Bloomberg New Energy Finance reported that the price of solar panels fell by almost 50 percent in 2011. They are now just one-quarter of what they were in 2008.

ABUNDANCE: WATER

Dean Kamen’s Slingshot…

‣$2,500 each

‣1000 liters/day

‣$0.02 per liter

‣5 Year Lifetime

‣100 watts of power

ABUNDANCE: COMMUNICATIONS

ABUNDANCE: HEALTH & EDUCATION

0,0

1,0

2,0

3,0

4,0

5,0

6,0

7,0

8,0

FORCE: Rising Billion

2000 2010 2020

GLOBAL POPULATION (BILLIONS)

6%

23%

66%

Global Population

Internet Users

3 BILLION NEW MINDS

What will 3 Billion New Minds…

create

consume

discover

desire invent

…Tens of trillions of annual PP

…Greatest period of Innovation (ever)

Get a copy of my Briefing Slides

Text: DELOITTE, FIRST NAME , & EMAIL to:

+46-737-494-551

THANK YOU

Peter H. Diamandis, MD

Copy of Slides Text your name & email: (310) 299-8772

Follow me: @PeterDiamandis

www.Diamandis.com (Sign up for BOLD Blog)

www.xprize.org

www.SingularityU.org