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Pattern-Based Strategy:

Implications for Higher Ed

Steve Bittinger

The Global Financial Crisis Highlights That

Change Is a Constant — Not a Variable

Customers

Vendors

Market/Economic

Weak Signal

Instability as Normal

Operations Seeking Fact-Based Decisions

Increasing "Undetected"

Business Impacts

Increased Focus on Delivering Solutions

That Provide Intelligence,

Collaboration, Agility

Increased Business

Connectivity –Network Effect

Leaders Proactively

Using "Collective" for

Innovation

Low

High

BU

Centralized

BU

BUCorporate

Core

Periphery

BU

Supplier

Corporate

Tightly

Held

Widening

Ecosystem

Control

Levels

Technology

Business Process

Information

People

Automation Productivity E-Commerce EcosystemPattern-Based

Strategy

Trends: Five Eras of IT Business Value-Add

A Leader’s Framework for Decision Making, Snowden & Boone, Harvard Business Review, Nov 2007

The new dynamics of strategy: Sense-making in a complex and complicated worldKurtz & Snowden, IBM Systems Journal, Vol 42, No 3, 2003

The Cynefin Framework

John Boyd’s OODA ―Loop‖

Orientation is central, shaping observation, shaping decisions, shaping action, and in turn is

shaped by the feedback and other phenomena coming into our sensing or observing window.

Competitive advantage comes from quickness over the entire ―loop, and from how well orientation

can make sense of and match changing external conditions.

Observations Action

(Test)

Cultural

Traditions

Genetic

Heritage

New

Information Previous

Experience

Analyses &

SynthesisFeed

Forward

Implicit

Guidance

& Control

Implicit

Guidance

& Control

Unfolding

Interaction

With

EnvironmentUnfolding

Interaction

With

Environment Feedback

Feed

Forward

Decision

(Hypothesis)

Feed

Forward

Feedback

Outside

Information

Unfolding

Circumstances

Observe Orient Decide Act

The Essence of Winning and Losing, J. R. Boyd (1995)

Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business, Chet Richards (2004)

Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd, Frans Osinga (2007)

John Boyd’s Operational Principles:

Trust-based Agility

Einheit: Mutual Trust

• Unity, mutual trust, implicit communication built on common experiences.

• Spontaneous, self-disciplined cooperation.

• Absolute confidence that your teammates will do the right thing

Fingersptizengefuhl: Intuitive Skill

• Intuitive Competence (―fingertip-feeling‖). Gut-feeling‖

• Pervasive, shared training, methods and expectations.

Auftrag: The Contract of Leadership

• Authority pushed to the cutting edges

• Subordinates understand, accept, intent of orders, Leaders require them to use initiative, freedom and flexibility to meet or exceed goals.

Schwehrpunkt: Focus and Direction

• Focus and direction of efforts understood, accepted, by all.

• ―Everyone would have agreed it was the right thing to do, and would have done the same thing, under the circumstances…‖

Certain to Win: The Strategy of John Boyd, Applied to Business, Chet Richards (2004)

Science, Strategy and War: The Strategic Theory of John Boyd, Frans Osinga (2007)

Seeking Exceptions and Fact-Based

Decisions in Information

• Just as there was too much data —now there's too much information.

• Information is not shared (trust, technology, language).

• Information is often conflicting.

• New sources of information (e.g., the collective) are often not considered.

• No recognition of patterns across different types of information (people, processes, data)

But …

Pattern-Based Strategy Requires New

Disciplines

Pattern Seeking is a

discipline to seek and

exploit signals that may

lead to a pattern that

will have a positive or

negative impact on

strategy or operations.

Optempo Advantage is a

discipline for improving an

organization's competitive

rhythm so that it can

consistently and dynamically

match pace to purpose.

Transparency is a

discipline that enables

awareness and visibility to

facts that are critical to the

achievement of the

desired outcomes of an

organization.

Performance-Driven

Culture is a discipline

that extends the

traditional performance

focus to leading

indicators, modeling the

impact of patterns, and

driving desired behaviors

(as a result of a new

pattern) across the

organization.

IT Intrinsic to Pattern-Based Strategy

Today …

Act on the results at appropriate speed:

• Model-Driven Business Applications

• Business Process Management

• Application Development

• Business Activity Monitoring

• Service-Oriented Architecture

Find and Document Patterns:

• Predictive Analytics

• Industry Specific —e.g., Fraud/Security

• Social Media Platforms

• Information Mediums (Access to Data)

• Business Intelligence

Interpret, Analyze Pattern Impact, and Define Scenarios

• Performance Management

• Operation Planning & Modeling Tools

• Social Network Analysis

• Forecasting Tools

Patterns have been recognized and are often valuable, but have been limited in applicability … until now.

The Basics of Pattern-Based Strategy

Who is responsible? Everyone. Business leaders need to recognize current and new sources of information that may indicate a strategic or operational risk or opportunity.

What do you do? Invest in culture and technology to enable seeking, modeling and adapting to patterns that can have a positive or negative impact on your organization.

How do you execute?

Identify organizational capabilities where the impact of seeking, modeling and adapting will have business impact.

Where do I start? Focus on the most important areas of your business — understand the major business drivers (for example, new services, operational improvement).

Innovation

Risk

Operational Strategic

Discipline 1: Pattern Seeking —

Recognizing Weak Signals

Pattern Matching

Pattern Recognition

Creative Activity: Exploiting Collective

Knowledge To Seek Patterns

The collective comprises individuals, groups, communities, mobs,

markets and firms that have the ability to shape the direction of society

and business.

The collective is not new to higher education but

technology has made the collective more powerful –

and enabled change to happen more rapidly.

Discipline 2: Establishing a Performance-

Driven Culture

Performance-Driven Culture

Monitoring Enterprise

Metrics

Framework

Predictive

Planning/

Modeling

Pattern-Based

Strategy

Degree of Business Impact and Value

Evolution

Stage

Focus

Seek, Model, Adapt

to Changing

Patterns

What-if analysis, scenario planning,

optimization and simulation

Driving/outcome metrics, balanced scorecard, strategy maps,

leading/lagging indicators and validation of key performance

indicators

Reporting, dashboards, alerts and business activity monitoring

Discipline 3: Operational Tempo

Advantage Matching Pace to Purpose

Guidelines, principles and prescriptive actions for continuously adapting pace to purpose

Discipline 4: Transparency Is an Enabler

of Pattern-Based Strategy

Enrollment Weak SignalsKey Performance and Key Risk Indicators

Example

Metrics

Auditability

Business

Pattern

Activities

• Defined • Exception• Creative • Collective

• Undergrad

• Non-degree

• Applicants

• Prospects

• Degree requirements

• Net Promoters Score (alumni, stop outs)

• Social Network Size

• Very High

• High • Medium • Low

• Grad

• Financial aid

• Accreditationstatus

• Demographic changes

(Lagging) (Very Leading)Timeliness of Indicator

Patterns

• FTE• Head

count

• Retention

Risk: Which Cultural Model Best

Resembles Your Institution?

Horizontal Vertical

Management systematically and

explicitly recognizes and rewards

contributions to the success of others.

Management and measurement

systems do not.

Flat, horizontal organization with

authority broadly delegated to the

"end nodes."

Hierarchical organization with authority

concentrated at the top.

Open information access and

information flow.

Information available on a need to

know basis.

Collaborative, participatory, bottom up. Top down.

Status, rank, political capital not

key factors.

Status, rank and political capital are

critical determinants of who

controls what.

Fluid working relationships and anyone

can communicate with anyone else.

"Skip level" communication works only

in downward fashion.

Risk: Underinvestment in

Organizational Change Management

Time

Current

Base Line

Unrealistic Expectations

Momentof Truth Trough

of Despair

Gathering Momentum

Institutionalization

Light at End of Tunnel

Danger

Zone

Change Acceptance Cycle

Change Participation Rates

Change Adoption Distribution

Early Adopter

Reluctant Majority Resistant

Laggard

t

Change

Absorption

Rate

Volume, Velocity, Complexity

Absorption Threshold

0

100%

Change Mgmt. Effect

Change Absorption Thresholds

Performance

Strategy

Results Depend on

Balanced Strengths In Each Area

Enterprise

Architecture

Governance

• Project Management

• Programme Management

• Portfolio Management

• Benefits Realization

• Business Strategy

• IT Strategy

Engagement

Direction

Objectives,

Targets Constraints

Adapted from: The Information Paradox (2003) By John Thorp, pages 264-270

Presentation by Greg Farr, Defence CIO, to AIIA Canberra on 20 August 2008

• Business

• Applications

• Information

• Technology

• Security

Sourcing and

Vendor Management

ICT Operations

and Sustainment

Clarify What is Separate and

What is Shared – and Why

© 2000 P. Weill and M. Broadbent , from P. Weill & M. Broadbent Leveraging the New Infrastructure:How Market Leaders Capitalize on IT, Harvard Business School Press, June 1998

Research tools

Knowledge management

Financial management

Home page

PC/LAN service

Electronic mail

Large-scale

processing

Student database

Electronic malls

Telecom service

providers

Secure networks

Shared/Centrally

CoordinatedBusiness

Unit 1Business

Unit 2

Public Infrastructure(e.g., Internet, Vendors, Telcos, Industry Networks)

Enterprisewide Infrastructure

Corp. Infra

BU 1 Infra BU 2 Infra

LocalIT

LocalIT

LocalIT

Copyright © 2002. Matching IT Infrastructure with Business Initiatives,

Peter Weill, MIT Sloan CISR; Marianne Broadbent, Gartner; Mani Subramani, University of Minnesota.

Business Orientation Shapes the Maxims

Autonomous Enterprises 3

BusinessProcesses

Coordination and Skills

ManagementSystems for Coordination

More distinct and independent

Local innovation and competitive strengths

Few mandates, just enterprise financial and risk management

Thin layer firmwide, each BU infrastructure tailored

Information & Information Systems 3

Bus.Orient.

Synergistic Enterprises 1

Standardized and integrated across business units

Specified synergies mandated, duplication removed

BUs focus on BU and firmwide strategies

Substantial integrated firmwide infrastructure, shared services

AgileEnterprises 2

Modular, adaptable and easily combined

Firmwide, front-line responsiveness

BUs adapt to local conditions within firm-wide organizing logic

Modular capabilities centrally coordinated and architected

Ent.Charac.

1 ―Aligning IT Architecture with Organizational Realities‖ Jeanne Ross, David Robertson, George Westerman, Nils Fonstad.

MIT Sloan CISR Research Briefing, Vol 3, No 1A, March 2003.2 Drawing on the work of Duncan (1995), Kayworth, Chatterjee, and Sambamurthy (2001), Sambamurthy and Zmud (2000).3 Drawing on the work of Kayworth, Chatterjee, and Sambamurthy (2001), Weill, Subramani, and Broadbent (2002).

© 2003 MIT Sloan Center for Information Systems Research (Weill & Fonstad). Source Peter Weill & Jeanne Ross ―IT Governance: How Top Performers Manage IT Decision Rights for Superior Results‖, Harvard Press

IS Credibility CurvePotentialEconomic Value

Toolbox• Communication• Consistency• Reliability• Performance• Recruitment

Perception Pts.• Information• Problem Mgmt.• Policies

Toolbox• Budgets• Operations• Staffing

Perception Pts.• Response• Reliability

Level 1

Uncertainty

Level 2

Skepticism Toolbox• Svc. Portfolio• Skill Assessment• Relationship

Mgmt.• Project Mgmt.• Outsourcing• Svc. Recovery• Staff Dev.Perception Pts.• Competency• Business Smarts• SLAs• Priorities

Toolbox• Svc. Delivery• Architecture• Project Office• Resource Mgmt. • Competencies• MeasurementPerception Pts.• Leadership• Relationships• Behavior• Sourcing Choices• Service Pricing

Toolbox• Governance• Funding• Portfolio Mgmt.• Final Analysis• Career Pathing• Program Mgmt.• Work Flexibility• Strategic

Sourcing • SuccessionPerception Pts.• Alliances• Partnerships • Consultation• Innovation• Tangible Value

Level 5

Respect

Level 4

Trust

Level 3

Acceptance

The IS Credibility Curve:

From Cost Center to Business Center

Process-Based

Silos

Reactive

Proactive

Internal Service

Company (ISCo)

Value

Service

SharedServices Profit

Generator

Acts Like a Cost Center

Acts Like External anService Provider

Acts Like the Owner

Differentiation

Worst Practice

Uncertainty Skepticism Accept Trust Respect

UtilityLevels 1 and 2

EnhancementLevels 2 to 5

TranformationLevel 5

The Best Practice Model

Depends on Business

Service Expectations

Service Delivery Operating Models

Evolve With Rising Credibility

The Road to Real Time Infrastructure:

The Infrastructure Maturity Model

Objective

Ability to Change

Pricing Scheme

Business Interface

Resource Utilisation

Organisation

IT Management

Processes

Basic

RationalisedVirtualised

Service-Based

Standardised

Reduce complexity

Economies of scale

Flexibility, reduce costs

Service-level delivery

React

Weeks Weeks to days

Weeks to minutes

MinutesMonths to weeks

Fixed costsReduced, fixed costs

Fixed shared costs

Variable usage costs

None, ad hoc

Infrastructure resources

pooled

Services managed holistically

Uncoordinated infrastructure

Standard resources,

configurations

Consolidate to fewer

Policy- orValue-Based

Business agility

Minutes to seconds

Variable business costs

Dynamic optimisation to

meet SLAs

Class-of-service SLAs

Class-of-service SLAs

Flexible SLAsEnd-to-end SLAs

No SLAs

Known Rationalised Shared poolsService-based poolsUnknown

Central control ConsolidatedPooled ownership

Service-oriented

None

Business SLAs

Policy-based sharing

Business-oriented

Reactive —Proactive

Life cycle management

Proactive

Matureproblem management

Proactive

Prediction, dynamic capacity

Service

End-to-end service management

Chaotic —Reactive

Ad hoc

Value

Policy management

Higher Education CIO Business Priorities

Ranking 2009 C 2008 2012

Improving business processes 1 1 5

Increasing the use of information and analytics 2 3 6

Reducing enterprise costs 3 10 *

Improving enterprise workforce effectiveness 4 9 7

Attracting and retaining new customers 5 2 1

Targeting customers and markets more effectively 6 4 2

Creating new products or services (innovation) 7 5 3

Managing enterprise change initiatives 8 6 8

Creating new sources of competitive advantage 9 8 4

Expanding current customer relationships 10 7 *

Managing your environmental impact

(green IT, carbon footprint)* * 9

Expanding into new markets or geographies * * 10

Gartner's annual CIO survey contains results from 75 higher education CIOs, out of a total of 1,526 total CIO responses.

* = not ranked in Top 10

Technology Trigger

Peak ofInflated

Expectations

Trough of Disillusionment

Slope of EnlightenmentPlateau of

Productivity

time

expectations

Years to mainstream adoption:

less than 2 years 2 to 5 years 5 to 10 years more than 10 yearsobsoletebefore plateau

As of July 2009

BPO — Education

Quantum Computing

SIS International DataInteroperability Standards

Mobile-Learning Smartphone

Social Learning Platform

Open-Source HigherEducation SIS

Digital Preservation ofResearch Data

E-TextbookCloud HPC/CaaS in

Higher Education

CobiT — Education

Mobile-Learning Low-Range/Midrange Handsets

Open-Source Higher EducationFinancials

Unified Communications and CollaborationLecture Capture and Retrieval Tools

Web-Based OfficeProductivity Suites

Virtual Environments/Virtual Worlds — Higher Education

Emergency Notification/Mass Notification Software

Mashups — Higher Education

ITIL — Education

E-LearningRepositories

802.11n

Organizational-CentricIAM — Education

Open-Source HigherEducation Portals

E-Portfolios

Social Networking in Education

Tablet PC

Digital RightsManagement —

Higher Education

Wikis

CRM for Enrollment ManagementFederated Identity ManagementOpen-Source E-Learning Applications

Grid Computing —Higher Education

Web and ApplicationHosting

Web Services forAdministrative Applications

User-Centric Identity Frameworks

Global Library Digitization Projects

Hosted Virtual Desktops

Hosted PC Virtualization Software

SaaS AdministrationApplications for Education Cloud E-Mail for Higher Education

Podcasting Learning Content

IT Infrastructure Utility

Education Hype Cycle 2009

Chaotic

Sandpit

Disciplined

Engine Room

Healthy

Hothouse

Framework for Managing Technology

Adoption in Higher Education

Technology

Trigger

Peak of

Inflated

Expectations

Trough of

Disillusionment

Slope of

Enlightenment

Plateau of

Productivity

Not in Use

Watch

Plan

Pilot

Adopt

Use

Experiment

Play

Focused Use

Enable

Broad Use

Leverage

Conceptualize

Build

Contribute

Commercialize

Sell

Exit ResearchUse

Research

Teaching/Learning

Administration

Chaotic

Sandpit

Disciplined

Engine RoomHealthy

Hothouse

"Cloud"Office

13

"Free"cloudmail

Education Hype Cycle 2009:

A Selective Technology Strategy MapTechnology Trigger

1. BPO — Education

2. OSS SIS

3. User-centric identity frameworks (UCIAM)

4. CobiT

5. Social learning platform

6. Mobile learning smartphone

Peak of Inflated Expectations

7. OSS financials

8. Lecture capture and retrieval tools

9. Web-based office productivity suites "Cloud Office"

10. Virtual worlds

Trough of Disillusionment

11. ITIL

12. Organizational-centric IAM

13. Cloud e-mail

14. E-portfolios

Slope of Enlightenment

15. Social networking in education

16. Wikis

17. Federated identity management (FIAM)

18. Web & application hosting

Plateau of Productivity

19. Web services for administrative computing

19

10Virtualworlds

6Mobilelearningsmartphone

4

18

9

BPO

8Lecture capture& retrieval

CobiT

Web and app.hosting

17 FIAM

7OSSfin.

Improves Student and Faculty

Experience

Imp

rove

sIn

sti

tuti

on

al R

OI

Personal Productivity

Org

an

izati

on

al

Eff

icie

nc

y

16 Wiki

2OSSSIS

15 Socialnetwork

5

Social learningplatform

WSadmin.comp.

1

12 O.C.IAM

11 ITIL

3 UCIAM

14E-portfolios

Improves… Remember "everything is relative"

Emergent Architecture: Enabling

Interoperability While Not Constraining Change

Unexpected reuse is the value of the WebTim Berners-Lee

FederatedComponents

SimpleInterface

GenericSolutions

E x

t e

n s

i b

l e

Uncertainty

Uncertainty

Emergent Architecture is Based on Simple,

Standard Identifiers, Formats, Protocols

Examples

Identifier

Address

Reference

Name

Format

Document

Message

Container

Protocol

Method

Operation

Process

IP IP Address IP Packet IP Protocol

E-Mail @ Address RFC 2822 SMTP(Simple Mail Transfer Protocol)

Web URI(Uniform Resource Identifier)

HTML(Hypertext Markup Language)

HTTP(Hypertext Transfer Protocol)

WS-* URI SOAP Envelope

SOAP Protocol

Three rules

- Concentrate on form, not function

- Concentrate on communication, not operation

- Concentrate on identification, not content

Simple Interface

The Learning Conundrum

Therefore,

most of the

money

organizations

spend on

learning does

not make

people more

proficient or

productive.

Where

learning

$ goesFormal learning

Where

learning

occurs

Informal

learning

A Social Learning Platform Emerges

E-Learning

FORMAL INFORMAL

Instructor-led training

Certification

Compliance

Mentoring Coaching

Expertise

"Ask an expert"

Structured Information

Repositories

Communities of Practice

and Social Networks

Unstructured Information

Sources

SOCIAL LEARNING PLATFORM

Performance

Expert intervention

Experts and Peers

STRUCTURED SOCIAL

Conclusions and Recommendations

• Pattern-Based Strategy is both about technology and culture.

• Understand how you "seek, model and adapt" today — and where the integration of these three will enable more-efficient institutional outcomes.

• Include the "collective" as a source of seeking new/novel patterns.

• Start small — identify critical patterns where exceptions have a big impact (and there is little/no planning) — apply seek, model, adapt (i.e. degree offerings, funding, financial aid, retention)

• Understand how your institution and/or department exploits the four disciplines: pattern seeking, optempo advantage, performance-driven culture, transparency.

• Shift your architectural focus from standardisation toward enablement of continuous change.

• Think about EA in terms of how to infuence relationships

• Leverage the EA community of practice