overview of fema p-58 and sp3 software

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The FEMA P-58 Methodologyand the

Seismic Performance Prediction Program (SP3)

Curt Haselton and Jack Baker

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Overview of FEMA P-58

P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year

FEMA study (enabled by much previous research).

P-58 is an alternative to experience-based or judgment-based

methods (e.g. proprietary software, HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.).

P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (cause + effect).

ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to further

advance the methodology, implementation, ease of use.

The U.S. Resiliency Council is currently creating

a P-58-based rating system.

FEMA P-58 Output Results:

• Losses [$]

• Fatalities & injuries

• Repair time & red tagging

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FEMA P-58: Methodology

Hazard and Ground Motions

• Soil and hazard curve

• Ground motions (if needed)

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Structural Responses

• Option #1: Response-history

• Option #2: Simplified method

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Damage Prediction

• Contents (str. and non-str.)

• Fragility curves

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Damage Prediction



Loss Estimation (loss curves)

and other consequences

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Damage Prediction





Monte Carlo

Simulation used

(“roll dice” thousands of

times).

Each “dice roll” gives a

single observation of

losses and other

consequences.

Full set of “dice rolls”

provides solid statistical

information on

performance

(e.g. 10,000 at 12 levels =

120,000 runs).

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FEMA P-58: Output Example

Sample Results (12-story RC frame):

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FEMA P-58 Benefits

Objective process based on data and research.

Quantitative performance information:

• Solid statistical basis.

• Sensitive enough to inform design decisions (cause + effect).

• Tools to communicate with owners.

• Dig as deep as you like.

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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”







Damage Prediction





I need to hire a geotech to do

this…?!?!

I need to do a response-

history analysis…?!?!

I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall and

other contents…?!?!

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FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty”

The fact is that it may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58

as some currently perceive it to be.

WHAT IF….???

What if design engineers could provide high performance

earthquake simulation predictions to their clients using the P-58

methodology in a matter of hours rather than days?

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The Need

We have seen that a large barrier to widespread FEMA P-58

adoption is related to software and ease-of-use (high cost of

entry).

ATC/FEMA have created a great methodology but are not in

the business of maintaining software.

Need: For our profession to move forward with FEMA P-58

methods, an enabling commercial software needs to be

created and maintained.

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Overview of SP3 Implementation







Damage Prediction




Soil and hazard curves embedded.

Simplified method embedded.

Structural and non-structural contents estimates and pre-

populated.

Two-level structure: (1) Simple (prelim. design, building rating, PML)(2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD).

Streamlined numerics, scalable web deployment.

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SP3 Version 2.0 Features

SP3 Features:

Method: FEMA P-58 damage and loss methodology implementation.

Automation: Automated look-up of soil and hazard data based on project address.

Automation: Integrated & simplified structural analysis method, providing near-

instant predictions of structural response.

Automation: Pre-populated non-structural building contents using SP3 pre-

population algorithm (no need to manually input building contents).

Flexibility: The ability to define and input any demand parameter or component the

user can create makes SP3 a powerful modeler.

Diversity: SP3 uses other methodologies, like FEMA 154, REDi, and the USRC rating

system, along with P-58 to enhance seismic predictions.

Efficiency Improved numerical methods enabling hundreds of thousands of damage

simulations in minutes.

Efficiency Software that runs in the cloud for fast computation and infinite

scalability.

Results Access Reporting tools, enabling users to quickly identify building features

leading to earthquake damage.

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Feedback Welcomed

Our purpose in creating SP3 is to support adoption of FEMA

P-58 methods, so please let us know how we can best help in

this process.

We are still in active development, so please:

• Let us know how we can tailor our plans to most

effectively serve the engineering profession.

• Give us any other feedback/ideas (we are all ears!).

E-mail: [email protected]

Office: (530) 531-0295

Websites: www.hbrisk.com

overview of fema p-58 and sp3 software

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