Demantra Demand Planning Overview

Mihir Jhaveri

2

Index

• What Demantra brings in?

• How problems can be solved?

• Standard process

2

Actual Reality about-Demand Planning

4

Demand Management: Most of Planners feel…..

• Difficult to aggregate forecasting at multiple levels Category Level/Family Level/Product Level/Customer Level ..and more..

• Long forecasting cycles – End-to-End cycles are time confusing

• Batch Process – real time information is not present

• Forecast accuracy- Poor forecast accuracy leads to unsatisfied customers

• Not scalable:- most companies don’t know how to deal with increased number of customers and opportunties

• Factors– its difficult to apply seasonality and other factors

4

5

• Too many versions of the same forecast is present

• Revenue Planning is being done offline / manually

• Manual Efforts require to collate the data such as shipment history, backlog.

• Lacks the ability to archive various forecasts

• No visibility of off-cycle forecast changes

• Different departments forecast in different units of measure, and thus cannot be merged to have a single demand plan

– Marketing: % of market share by brand

– Sales: revenue by customer/territory

– Finance: Revenue and net profits per quarter

– Supply Chain: SKU by ship-to location (advanced)

5

Demand Management: Most of Planners feel….. continue..

6

End this is what happens

Near Accurate …can lead to Opportunities

• Improved reporting at all levels of an organization

• Better measurement and metrics

• Feed the best forecast to plan and generate commitment plan back from ASCP

• Ability to capture multiple forecasts and compare

• Enable Statistical forecasting

• Monitoring of demand forecast at multiple levels

• More accurate demand forecast

• Ability to provide better & fast supply dates for changes/enquiries

• Easy delegation/approval process thru workflow

• Role base security to avoid sharing of unnecessary data

Introducing

Oracle Demantra

Demantra’s End-to-End Solution

Shape Demand

Understand Demand

Respond to Demand

Plan for Demand

Demand Management

Trade Promotion Management

Real-Time Sales and Operations Planning

Business Process Platform

10

Demantra: Forecasting Capabilities

• Statistical forecasting using Causal factors

• Inbuilt New product introduction Mapping

• Unlimited Hierarchies, Dimensions, Levels and Attributes

• Mixed/Multiple Demand Signals

• Ability to measure/track the past performance

• Bayesian Collaboration

10

Oracle Demantra – Causal ForecastingEstimating techniques based on the assumption that the variable to be forecast (dependent variable) has cause-and-effect relationship

with one or more other (independent) variables.

Reaction to Market

Demantra can sense the causal factors and catalysts for demand change and apply them for future demands

It has a unique capability of separating trends & cycles from the causal factors

Granular Analysis

From “what happened” … To comprehensive understanding

of promotion impact

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Week

Ca

ses

Actual

TPR Display

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

Week 1 Week 6 Week 11

Week

Ca

ses

Cannibalization

Forward buying

Pantry loading

Competitive switching

Category growth

Baseline

Actual

Net

lift

Baseline

TPR Display

Gross

lift

14

Demantra: S&OP

14

Actual Shipments

Promotional Execution

In-FlightConsumption

Data

Sales

Marketing

Manufacturing

Finance

ExecutiveProductDevelop-

ment

Consensus

Promotional & Volume Plans

Strategic Plans

Capacity Plans

PhaseIn/Phase Out Products

Demand Plans

Profitability

Service Levels

Inventory Levels

Promotion Effectiveness

Plan Accuracy

AlertsExceptions

Inputs Outputs

Real-time

EBS Planning Footprint

DemantraPredictive Trade Planning

and Optimization

Sales and

Operations Planning

Demand Management

Dem

an

d C

ha

in P

lan

nin

g

Oracle

APSStrategic Network Design

Inventory Optimization

Adv. Supply Planning

Su

pp

ly C

ha

in P

lan

nin

g

Global Order Promising

Collaborative Planning

Production Scheduling

Supply Chain

Execution

E-Business Suite

EBS

ERP

CRM

Seam

less

Inte

gra

tio

n

16

• Excellent Offline Capabilities

• Oracle Demantra anywhere

• Dynamic Open Link to Excel and other BI tools

• Consensus Planning

• Reporting & analysis

• Collaboration Platform - alerts & exceptions

16

Other capabilities

Projection Workbook

Manual Supply Plan

Used in

Production

Oracle

CONSUMPTION

ASCP

Supply Plan2

Excel Adjustment

Files b

y d

em

and C

lass

Demand Management – AS IS

Demantra

What would you see in it?

Responding to Demand

Who’s online from

your collaboration

group

User defined

Realtime KPI’s

Workflow and

Exception based

Tasks and Alerts

User Defined

CPFR Worksheets

Realtime Status

Information

Analytics To Understand Demand

21

Sales Input

Sales Accuracy

For Incentives

Key Account Plan

Information

Account Trade

and Consumer

Promotions

Calendar

Consensus

Example: Internal Collaboration

Configurable Planning Environment to Match Your Planning Process

Historical Info

Forecast

Override

Management

Approval

Final

Plan

Flexible Business

Hierarchy

Marketing

Activities

Collaborate with Customers

Partner

Inputs:

XML,EDI or

Manual

Production

Mix

Partner

Forecast

Metrics

Business Modeler

Scheduler

Engine Admin

Workflow Builder

Other Components

Demantra SolutionOut of Box: Standard

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•With Demantra we will have role base security for

viewing and updating the data

•Activities will be automated thru work flow, which

will include notification and approval steps also

•Data integration – (Upload and download) will be

automatic

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

Once the customer file is ready & available in a

folder, its automatically download to Demantra

File can be at SKU level or at the higher level,

if it’s at the higher level, it will be propagated to

the lower level based on actual sales data

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

Once customer files are downloaded, a notification

is sent to demand Plan manager

Demand Planner verifies the data to see if

everything looks ok.

Demand Planner communicates back with

customers if something is not correct

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•Sales quantities are loaded on a daily

basis from ERP instance

•Demand Planner approves the forecast

downloaded which triggers into Demantra

Demand Planning Engine

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•As a result of Demand Planning engine

run, statistical forecast is generated based

on the actual sales history

•System sends notification to demand

planners confirming the availability of

statistical forecast

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•Demand Planners compare the results of

statistical forecast with actual forecast

•Planners can choose the best fit of all

the available forecasts, also they have the

flexibility of choosing a forecast

combination of available forecasts

•Planners send the final forecast for

approval.

Std Process

32

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•Demand manager may see the forecast

on the aggregated level and may make

necessary changes to it

•After manager approves the forecast, its

available for uploading into ASCP

Std Process

Cust1

Automatic

Download

Cust2 Cust3

Approval

Notification

Simulation

Forecast

Upload

Forecast

ASCP

Actual Sales data

Final Forecast

Demantra

Engine

Supply Plan

& Allocated ATP

•Final forecast is loaded to ASCP Plan

from where it can be used to generate the

supply plan & allocation data for ATP

inquiries

•ASCP can plan can be sent back to

Demantra as the commitment plan which

can be shared with customers

Std Process

Brand

Product Line

Category

Style

Product Hierarchy

Std combinations

SKU

2

38

4

Appro 250

Appro 2500

Thank you