omsi science pub - earthquakes and tsunamis
DESCRIPTION
"Serial Crimes of Subduction: Giant Earthquakes and Tsunamis in Oregon's Past and Future" This Science Pub took place at the Mission Theater in Portland, Oregon, on Tuesday, October 20, 2009. It was presented by Brian Atwater, a U.S. Geological Survey geologist based at the University of Washington, and by Yumei Wang, a geotechnical engineer at the Oregon Department of Geology and Mineral Industries (DOGAMI).TRANSCRIPT
Photo of Brian Atwater describing tools and clues at Science PubPhoto by D. Scott Frey
Serial Crimes of Serial Crimes of SubductionSubduction: : Giant Earthquake & Tsunamis in Giant Earthquake & Tsunamis in
OregonOregon’’s Past & Futures Past & Future
OMSI Science PubOMSI Science PubBrian Atwater & Brian Atwater & YumeiYumei
WangWang
U.S.G.S. & OR Dept of Geology (DOGAMI)U.S.G.S. & OR Dept of Geology (DOGAMI)October 20, 2009October 20, 2009
Origin of EarthquakesOrigin of Earthquakes
Why is Pacific NW Unprepared?Why is Pacific NW Unprepared?
““Risk of Earthquakes in Oregon Very LowRisk of Earthquakes in Oregon Very Low““ Geologist John Eliot Allen, 1983 OregonianGeologist John Eliot Allen, 1983 Oregonian
””RecentRecent”” Seismic Info Seismic Info
Decades of Inadequate Decades of Inadequate
Oregon Building Codes Oregon Building Codes
1976 1976
%g Zone
1994 1994
~ Seismic Building Code Maps~ Seismic Building Code Maps
(10% PE in 50 yrs)(10% PE in 50 yrs)
((AlgermissenAlgermissen
& Perkins)& Perkins)
Oregon Earthquake Study (1998)Oregon Earthquake Study (1998)
Geography Layer
Earthquake Shaking
Soil Response
EstimatedDamage & Loss
Champion: Champion: ““Q9 The Earthquake KidQ9 The Earthquake Kid”” Oregon Senator Peter CourtneyOregon Senator Peter Courtney
Findings: Weak Buildings & TsunamiFindings: Weak Buildings & Tsunami
FOCUS: Weak Community BuildingsFOCUS: Weak Community Buildings
Emergency Facilities & Public SchoolsEmergency Facilities & Public Schools
VA Hospital. 1971 San Fernando CA, M6.6VA Hospital. 1971 San Fernando CA, M6.6
2008 China2008 China
19k students dead19k students dead
2005 Pakistan2005 Pakistan
8,000 schools8,000 schools
17k students dead17k students dead
2003 Algeria2003 Algeria
130 schools 130 schools
1988 Armenia1988 Armenia
>1,000 students dead>1,000 students dead 1964 Alaska magnitude 9.2 quakeSchool pulled apart by landslide
Earthquake Damage to SchoolsEarthquake Damage to Schools
Xing Fu Primary School (2008)Xing Fu Primary School (2008)
YingxiuYingxiu
Middle School (2008)Middle School (2008)
Seismic Engineering & ConstructionSeismic Engineering & Construction
Weak buildings can collapseWeak buildings can collapse
PostPost--19941994 seismic building codesseismic building codes-- adequateadequate..PrePre--19941994 seismic buildings codesseismic buildings codes-- inadequateinadequate. Some . Some older buildings are dangerousolder buildings are dangerous2001 Oregon laws require seismic safety in 2001 Oregon laws require seismic safety in
schoolsschools
& & emergency facilitiesemergency facilities
Require strengthening of existing Require strengthening of existing collapsecollapse--pronepronebuildingsbuildings
170 School Districts & 1,101 Schools170 School Districts & 1,101 Schools2,185 School Buildings2,185 School Buildings
273 Very High Risk273 Very High Risk745 High Risk745 High Risk501 Moderate Risk501 Moderate Risk666 Low Risk666 Low Risk
DOGAMIDOGAMI’’ss
REPORT (2007)REPORT (2007)
Risk Scores for Schools & Emergency Service Buildings (2007 DOGAMI report)www.oregongeology.org/sub/projects/rvs/default.htm
1,198 were built before 1950 1,198 were built before 1950
UUnnrreinforced einforced MMasonry (asonry (URMsURMs) )
94 94 URMsURMs
surveyed (1933 surveyed (1933 URMsURMs
outlawed in CA)outlawed in CA)
70 Schools collapsed. 120 damaged. 70 Schools collapsed. 120 damaged. 1933 Long Beach, CA Magnitude 6.31933 Long Beach, CA Magnitude 6.3
Buildings with Weak 1stBuildings with Weak 1st--Stories Stories
““Tilt upTilt up””
buildingsbuildings
Structural drawingsreveal seismic designloads not incorporated
Buildings in Tsunami ZoneBuildings in Tsunami Zone
Schools in Tsunami zone
Inundation in yellow areas
TimelineTimeline
2022 Emergency Facilities Fixed
2032 Schools Fixed
2007 DOGAMI Report: schools & emergency
facilities 2009 New Grant Program
2001 Safety Laws
2002 Ballot Measures
2009 Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Program2009 Seismic Rehabilitation Grant Programaka aka ““Courtney GrantsCourtney Grants””
Public Grade, Middle & High Schools
Community Colleges & Public Universities
Fire & Police Stations, & Hospitals
2009-11 Legislature: $30 million state bonds
$15 M Public Schools & $15 M Fire, Police, & Hospitals$15 M Public Schools & $15 M Fire, Police, & Hospitals
($1.2 B authorized by voters)($1.2 B authorized by voters)
VIDEO: VIDEO: www.oregongeology.orgwww.oregongeology.org/sub/earthquakes//sub/earthquakes/
Purpose of Purpose of ““CourtneyCourtney””
GrantsGrants
Eliminate collapseEliminate collapse--prone schoolsprone schools
Improve community preparedness Improve community preparedness
Schools & Emergency Facilities Schools & Emergency Facilities may augment state grant funds for may augment state grant funds for additional upgradesadditional upgrades
2009 Grant Programwww.oregon.gov/OMD/OEM/
Quake Safe Schools (Risk Scores)www.ode.state.or.us/go/quakesafeschools/
Applications due Nov. 15, 2009!Applications due Nov. 15, 2009!
OndineOndine Residence Residence
Hall (1966) Hall (1966)
Portland Portland State State
UniversityUniversity
Weak floor prone to collapse
2005 Seismic Risk Management Program 2005 Seismic Risk Management Program Oregon University BuildingsOregon University Buildings
Cross Bracing Cross Bracing Installation in ProgressInstallation in Progress
Concrete Forms for Shear WallConcrete Forms for Shear Wall
Steel Plate WallSteel Plate Wall FloorFloor--toto--Floor ConnectionsFloor Connections
Rebar Coupler Problem DiscoveredRebar Coupler Problem Discovered & Improved& Improved
Earthquake & Tsunami PreparednessWhen you feel shaking,
“Duck, cover & hold”&
“Move inland & uphill”to protect from near-field tsunami
But…some coastal communities require tsunami vertical refuges
for Cascadia tsunamis
Impact of 1964 Alaska TsunamiImpact of 1964 Alaska Tsunami1964 Alaska Tsunami, Cannon Beach1964 Alaska Tsunami, Cannon Beach
Bridge alignment
Bridge ~300 m
Cannon BeachElementary School
Housefootprint
House ~400 m
Photo: Hillsboro Argus, March 30, 1964
Tsunami Vertical RefugesJapan
Indonesia?
USA
Conceptual DesignCannon Beach City Hall
Tsunami Evacuation Building
(Ecola
Architects)
by Jay by Jay RaskinRaskin, , YumeiYumei
Wang, Marcella M. Boyer, Wang, Marcella M. Boyer,
Javier Javier MoncadaMoncada, Kent Yu, & , Kent Yu, & Harry YehHarry Yeh
Hypothetical Locations inSeaside, OR
Modified from D.Cox
Build Tsunami Refuges in PNW
““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””
(red) = (red) = OregonOregon’’s fuel supply hubs fuel supply hub
““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””
Willamette River Willamette River
““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot”” Surface Geology & Geology MapSurface Geology & Geology Map
Madin & others, 2009
Liquefaction & Lateral SpreadingLiquefaction & Lateral SpreadingBefore
During ShakingAfter
Sand supports loadsthrough grain-to-graincontacts
Fluid pressure risesGrains float apartSand loses strength& can flow downhillWater, sand ejected
Sand is compactedSand volcanoes onsurface
Liquefaction sand boils
Nisqually Wildlife Refuge (2001)
Courtesy: Nisqually Earthquake Clearinghouse
8/07 Japan quake
Liquefaction & Lateral Spreads
““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””
Tank FarmsTank Farms
““Portland HotspotPortland Hotspot””
Marine Oil TerminalsMarine Oil Terminals
Vulnerable PiersVulnerable Piers
Fuel PipelinesFuel Pipelines
Electrical Transmission Electrical Transmission
Landslide
Erosion
DAMAGE: 1999 Taiwan Quake
Slide: Leon Kempner, BPA, 11/05
DAMAGE: 1964 Alaska QuakeDAMAGE: 1964 Alaska QuakeDAMAGE: 1964 Alaska Quake
timber piles
timber timber pilespiles
ground displacement
ground ground displacementdisplacement
Liquefaction, sliding, uplifting, anchorage, firesLiquefaction, sliding, uplifting, anchorage, fires
1995 Kobe
1999 TurkeyBhuj, India
Liquefaction: Tanks Liquefaction: Tanks bouyantbouyant
Fix Schools & Emergency Fix Schools & Emergency FacilitiesFacilities Build Tsunami RefugesBuild Tsunami Refuges Reliable Fuel SupplyReliable Fuel Supply
Disaster Preparedness Disaster Preparedness Requires Risk Management Requires Risk Management for for FrequentFrequent (storms(storms……) &) &
InfrequentInfrequent (quakes(quakes……) disasters) disasterswww.oregongeology.com (DOGAMI)
Questions?Questions?