Pol Hoorelbeke

Total Refining & Chemicals Vice President Safety Division

Brussels, 6th of November 2021

Structure of the presentation

A changing world

New and emerging risks

as many people as possible to access energy

Our vision is to be

an Energy Company that is a leading international

oil company and a global operator in gas,

petrochemicals, solar energy and,

tomorrow, biomass.

To responsibly enable

in a world of constantly growing

demand.

Our mission

Our vision

World Population

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

1990 2004 2015 2030

Nu

mb

er

of

peo

ple

(m

illi

on

s)

USA Europe China & India World

Expected Worldwide Energy Consumption

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

1990 2004 2015 2030

qu

ad

rillio

n B

tu

1 Btu = 1055,056 Joules

Where does the energy comes from ?

Oil

Gas

Coal

Nuclear

Biomass/Waste

Hydro

Other:

Geothermic

Wind

Solar

other

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1990 2000 2010 2025 2040

Other renewables

Hydro

Biomass/waste

Nuclear

Coal

Gas

Oil

Energy Demand in quadrillon BTU

634 360 416 525 693

38

20

24

6

10

2 0

32

27

19

8 8

3 4

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Oil Gas Coal Nuclear Biomass/waste Hydro Otherrenewables

1990 2040

Evolution of the contribution (%) of the different sources to the global energy demand

7

• Oil, Gas and Coal remain the most widely energy sources thru 2040

• Natural gas will overtake coal and become number two behind oil

• For both oil and gas, an increasing share of global supply will come from unconventional

sources

Global demand = 360 1015 BTU (1990) and 693 1015 BTU (2040)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

South Korea

Russian Federation

China

Germany

United Kingdom

Mexico

Chile

Vietnam

USA

Iran

Brazil

Argentina

India

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Afghanistan

2050

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

South Korea

Russian Federation

China

Germany

United Kingdom

Mexico

Chile

Vietnam

USA

Iran

Brazil

Argentina

India

Saudi Arabia

Iraq

Afghanistan

2010

Graying societies (median age)

Soci et i es wi t h el der l y popul at i ons ar e l ess vi ol ent

Fr om an economi c per spect i ve:

• A mor e expensi ve Heal t h car e syst em

• The avai l abl e wor kf or ce i s smal l er

Urbanization (World megacities of Ten Million or More)

1950

USA New York 12.3

Japan Tokyo 11.3

1975 2007 2025

Japan Tokyo 36.4

India Mumbai 26.4

India Delhi 22.5

Bangladesh Dhaka 22

Brazil São Paulo 21.4

Mexico Mexico City 21

USA New York 20.6

India Calcutta 20.6

China Shanghai 19.4

Pakistan Karachi 19.1

Congo Kinshasa 16.8

Nigeria Lagos 15.8

Egypt Cairo 15.6

Philippines Manilla 14.8

China Beijing 14.5

Argentina Buenos Aires 13.8

USA Los Angeles+ 13.7

Brazil Rio de Janeiro 13.4

Indonesia Jakarta 12.4

Turkey Istanbul 12.1

China Guangzhou 11.8

Japan Osaka-Kobe 11.4

Russia Moscow 10.5

Pakistan Lahore 10.5

China Shenzhen 10.2

India Chennai 10.1

France Paris 10

Japan Tokyo 35.7

USA New York 19

Mexico Mexico City 19

India Mumbai 19

Brazil São Paulo 18.8

India Delhi 15.9

China Shanghai 15

India Calcutta 14.8

Bangladesh Dhaka 13.5

Argentina Buenos Aires 12.8

USA Los Angeles+ 12.5

Pakistan Karachi 12.1

Egypt Cairo 11.9

Brazil Rio de Janeiro 11.7

Japan Osaka-Kobe 11.3

China Beijing 11.1

Philippines Manilla 11.1

Russia Moscow 10.5

Turkey Istanbul 10.1

Japan Tokyo 26.6

USA New York 15.9

Mexico Mexico City 10.7

Future outlook:

•Rural population declines

•For every 100 childeren born in 2050: • 57 will be born in Asia

• 22 will be born in Africa

Unconventional Oil reserves are bigger than conventional oil reserves

•1400 Billion barrels without oil sands

•3750 Billion barrels including

unconventional resources

The total known and available

oil reserves is about :

600

700

800

900

1000

1100

1200

1300

1400

Proved oil reserves in Billion bbl

There is a shift ongoing

towards more unconventional

oil & gas resources

Some direct consequences of more industrialisation

More industrial

activities

More combustion of

fossil fuels

CO2 (GHG)

NOx

SO2

More emissions of

chemical compounds VOC’s

More people More agriculture

(deforestation)

Increased use of

fertilizers

More transportation

CH4 (GHG)

N, P & K

Overview of some major environmental concerns of the society today

Ozone depletion in the stratosphere (12 – 50 km) due to introduction of

antrophogenic depletion chemicals such as CFC’s and HCFC’s

Ozone formation in the troposhere due to introduction of NOx, VOC’s

Direct human health effects due to antrophogenic introduction of CMR’s and other

chemicals in the troposphere

Increase of temperature due to GHG (CO2, CH4, N2O, O3, etc.)

Eutrophication of surface waters due to introduction of nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium

Adverse impacts on soil, freshwater, forests (killing insects and aquatic lifeforms) and human health due to acidification because of introduction of nitrogen and sulfur compounds

Ecosystem unbalances because of the human impact on the nitrogen cycle

Water availibility

Major accidents

HSE challenges for Major International Oil Companies

The activities and investments of Major oil companies are based on a

long term strategy

An Major International Oil Company has to be able to:

demonstrate its capability to manage its own risks and its

environmental footprint;

ensure that stakeholders perceive the company as part of the

solution for the sustainable development of the society and not as

part of the problem;

Structure of the presentation

A changing world

New and emerging risks

The term « risk »

« Risk » is an intellectual concept that has been invented to

make it possible to discuss about the uncertainties for a

particular situation

Risk will be used to communicate about the possibility that a

hazard could create harm of damage

An « acceptable risk » means that «the situation is considered

as acceptable»

ACCIDENT

Period during which « risk » exist

Changes in consumer tastes

Labour unrest

Social

Inflation

Monetary and fiscal policy

Economic

Change in unexpected costs

Restrictions on supply of raw materials

Production

War

Political unrest

Political

Loss of markets to competitors

Marketing

Bad debts

Financial

Lack of knowledge

Uneforeseen snags in new processes

Technical Risks

Business Risks

(Management Sciences)

Death

Sickness

Personal

Fraud

Theft

Social Deviations

Flooding

Earthquake, ...

Nature

Breakdown of plant

Explosion, fire, toxic emission

Technological

Pure Risks

(Risk Management)

Risk and Uncertainty in Business

Management of pure risks is less attractive than

management of business risks !!

New and emerging risks : a broad subject

Some new and emerging risks for the oil industry

Ageing installations

Increased efforts will be needed to avoid major accidents;

Challenge to cope with environmental regulations are huge.

Shift of the European (oil) Industry to the Middle East and the Eastern

hemisphere combined with demographics

Potential drain of competent workforce;

“Companies have no memory” re-occurrence of major accidents

New IT technologies (Twitter, facebook, etc.)

Cyber security (Hackers try to influence DCS of sites)

Communication channels that can affect the image of a company

Modernization Plans to manage the risk of Ageing installations Joint effort between Authorities and industries

UK: The COMAH Competent Authority (UK)

has identified ageing plant as a strategic

priority within the CA’s workplan.(UK)

France: Law of 4/10/2010 in relation to

ageing plants:

Piping;

Atmospheric tanks;

Cryogenic tanks;

Sewage;

Instrumentation;

Civil structures, bunds, etc.

Actions to manage the risk of Ageing installations

Research in new technologies to mitigate the

consequences of major accidents (e.g. Vapor

Cloud Explosion Effect mitigation with solid

particles)

Continuous investments in MHSE

Improved risk management tools: e.g. risk based inspection

Actions to manage expertise drain

Comprehensive accident databases;

Rapid exchange of information between European countries in case of

an accident;

Process Safety trainings is part of the curriculum of several

universities;

Increased attention of Industry for process safety:

EPSC (European Process Safety Centre);

CCPS (Chemical Centre for Process Safety);

API 571 “Damage Mechanisms Affecting Fixed Equipment in the Refining Industry”

GTSV (Groupe de Travail siur la Sécurité des Vapocrackers);

EEPC’s workgroup on safety incidents (EEPC = European Ethylene Producing

Companies)

LDPE companies database (LDPE = Low Density Poly Ethylene)

….

Increased attention for Competence Management

Any Questions?

Thank you