nzccri costs and benefits of adapting 6dec13 kdebruin · costs and benefits of adapting to climate...
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Costs and benefits of adapting to climate change - the case of spatial
planning and coastal flood protection in the Netherlands
Karianne de Bruin
Senior Research Fellow – CICERO
NZCCRI Seminar Series
Friday 6th December 2013
Decision support tools
Spatial planning
Coastal protection
Robust decision makingDecision support
tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Cost‐benefit analysis
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Robust decision making
Decision support tools
Multi‐criteria analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Cost‐benefit analysis
Real options
Robust decision making
Decision support tools
Cost‐benefit analysis
Cost‐effectiveness
analysis
Portfolio analysis
Real options analysis
Iterative risk (adaptive)
management
Multi‐criteria analysis
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Climate changeAdaptationUncertaintyEvaluation methods Source: de Bruin (2011)
Adaptation decision
- Whether to adapt?
- What to adapt?
- How much to adapt?
- When to adapt?
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Cost-benefit analysisUrgency Feasibility Costs …
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Cost-benefit analysis
Critical points- Data requirement- Types of costs and benefits- Discounting- Uncertainty
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Uncertainties
Physical effects of climate change
Economic- Costs and benefits of adaptation options- Irreversibility & flexibility
Policy- Time horizon of decision-makers- Feasibility
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Cost-benefit analysis - PlusUrgency Feasibility Costs …
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Spatial planning
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
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Context
Source: Rijkswaterstaat
Costs and benefits
Costs: Investment costs and maintenance costs
Primary benefits correspond to the objective of the adaptation measures – avoided direct damage
Secondary benefits which result from the adaptation but are not its primary objective
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Zuidplaspolder
Based on Melmer, J. (Hoogheemraadschap Schieland en de Krimpenerwaard)
Spatial planning ZPP
- Dutch policy makers selected the ZPP for urban developments, focused on new residential, commercial and further agricultural development (greenhouse horticulture)
- Province + NGOs + municipalities + water authority made a master plan for the spatial development
- Hotspot Zuidplaspolder project
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Climate change impacts
Flooding from river discharge- Failure probability of the flood defence- Simulated water flow in the ZPP- Potential economic damage
Excessive precipitation- Frequency inundation extreme rainfall event- Model local water levels- Damage caused by inundation
Zuidplaspolder
Based on Melmer, J. (Hoogheemraadschap Schieland en de Krimpenerwaard)
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Zuidplaspolder
Based on Melmer, J. (Hoogheemraadschap Schieland en de Krimpenerwaard)
Options
1. Water storage for housing and greenhouse development in the northern part of the ZPP
2. Climate robust ecological network (entire area of the ZPP)
3. Climate robust design of a residential area of Nieuwerkerk Noord
4. Climate robust design of a residential area of Moordrecht
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Source: de Bruin et al. (2013)
Reference situation
0-alternative: reference situation for the polder area based on the current master plan for the spatial development of the ZPP, but without additional adaptation measures
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Quantified costs and benefits
- Investment costs- Maintenance costs- Avoided damages- Effects on nature, landscape and water
values associated with alternative land use types (WTP per year additional municipal tax)
Net present value (million €)
Adaptation option Discount rate
2.5% Declining 4%
Water storage Zuidplas Noord -17.2 -19.6 -22.8
Ecological network entire polder 59.7 50.34 37.7
Climate robust design Nieuwerkerk Noord -17.81 -18.39 -19.3
Climate robust design Moordrecht Noord -19.55 -19.62 -19.72
Adaptation strategy (sum of all options) 5.14 -7.27 -24.12
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Lessons learned
- Sensitivity of NPV results; time horizon, long-term costs and benefits and the discount rate
- Inclusion of primary and secondary benefits- Awareness of underlying assumptions and
sensitivity of results- ‘What-if’ setting
Follow-up
Hotspot Zuidplaspolder - XplorelabThe Dutch government granted 24 million €for the implementation of sustainable and climate proof pilots in the Zuidplaspolder
Source: Xplorelab
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Coastal flood protection
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
Coastal flood protection
Context: flood protection, safety standards, climate change, stakeholders
Uncertainty: Sea-level rise, timing of resolution of uncertainty
Decision makers: Coastal managers
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Decision support
Evaluation of local coastal adaptation options
Assess how climate change uncertainty affects the decision to invest in coastal flood protection
How the incorporation of stakeholder perceptions changes the optimal investment decision
Local coastal adaptation
Optimal coastal protection under climate change uncertainty for a Dutch coastal area.
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Local coastal adaptation
Current protection
?
Sea level rise
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+ WB21 midden scenario (zeespiegelstijging inclusief bodemdaling)
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+ WB21 midden scenario (zeespiegelstijging inclusief bodemdaling)
Source: KNMI (2009)
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Investment model
An investment model is developed that simulates optimal decision-making in coastal flood protection, incorporating flexible timing of investment in coastal adaptation to uncertain climate-induced sea-level rise.
Local coastal options
Focus on investment in structural and/or non-structural coastal adaptation options.
Non‐structuralStructural
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Investment model
Two decision moments:- Investment decision (t=0)- Adjustment of investment decision (t=k)
Two random variables- Climate change uncertainty- Resolution of uncertainty
Decision tree
Source: de Bruin (2011)
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Costs and benefits (1)
Preliminary costs of coastal flood protection measures based on ARCADIS (2010) (1000€)
Non-structural Structural
Costs
Fixed investment cost 29458 38230
Annual Cost 48 36
Maximum additional annual flood damage with 1.0m climate induced sea-level rise is 1 400 000 € (Based on Deltares (2010))
ARCADIS (2010). MKBA Kustversterking Katwijk. (In English: Social Cost-Benet Analysisof coastal flood protection in Katwijk). ARCADIS, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
Deltares (2010). Overstromingsrisico en droogte in een veranderend klimaat, verkenningvan wegen naar een klimaatveranderingsbestendig Nederland (In English: Flood risks anddroughts in a changing climate, exploring roads towards a climate proof Netherlands).Deltares, Delft, the Netherlands.
Perceptions
Stakeholder perceptions are identified through workshops to gain insight into stakeholders’ attitude towards uncertain future impacts of climate change coastal flood protection
Photo: Karianne de Bruin
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Perceptions
Indirect stakeholders- Current safety standard- Flexibility of option- Robust for future climate change
Direct stakeholders- Impact on tourism sector- Spatial quality - Parking issue
Costs and benefits (2)Preliminary costs of coastal flood protection measures based on ARCADIS (2010) (1000€)
Non-structural Structural
Costs
Fixed investment cost 29458 38230
Annual Cost 48 36
Cost tourism sector during implementation 473 473
Annual negative costs (benefits)
Tourism revenues -620 -1250
Extra nature (per ha) -45 -29
ARCADIS (2010). MKBA Kustversterking Katwijk. (In English: Social Cost-Benet Analysisof coastal flood protection in Katwijk). ARCADIS, Rotterdam, the Netherlands.
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Results
Optimal initial investment decision depends on the expected waiting time for the resolution of uncertainty, the discount rate, the cost structure of the measures and the inclusion of start-up costs, and tourism and nature benefits (ancillary benefits)
Initial investment decision in structural and non-structural coastal adaptation measures
(a) Structural (b) Non‐structuralSource: de Bruin (2011)
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Follow-up
www.kustversterkingkatwijk.nl
Thank you for your attention
Contact details: [email protected]
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References
- De Bruin, K., H. Goosen, R. Groeneveld and E.C. van Ierland(2013). Costs and benefits of adapting spatial planning to climate change: lessons learned from a large-scale urban development project in the Netherlands. Regional Environmental Change -published online (doi: 10.1007/s10113-013-0447-1)
- De Bruin, K. and E. Ansink (2011). Investment in flood protection measures under climate change uncertainty. Climate Change Economics 2(4): 321-339 (doi: 10.1142/S2010007811000334)
- De Bruin, K. (2011). An economic analysis of adaptation to climate change under uncertainty. PhD thesis Wageningen University (http://edepot.wur.nl/182256)
Contact details: [email protected]