NYWEA 2013Water for the Future

Supply Augmentation Need Planning

Mark N. Page, Jr.

September 19, 2013

Agenda

2

Background on Water for the Future

Current Program

Modeling Results

Water Supply System Overview

Dependability Program

Above Kensico Reservoir Rondout - West Branch Tunnel

(Delaware Aqueduct)

West Branch – Kensico Tunnel (Delaware Aqueduct)

Ashokan – Kensico Reach (Catskill Aqueduct)

Rondout Reservoir Ashokan Reservoir

Below Kensico Reservoir Kensico Reservoir and

Connecting Tunnels to Eastview

Hillview Reservoir City Tunnels #1 & #2 Catskill & Delaware

Aqueducts between Kensico and Hillview Reservoirs

Richmond Tunnel (Brooklyn to Staten Island)

10 Critical Areas Have No ‘Back-up’ Infrastructure or Supplies

Dependability Supply Needs Above Kensico

Rondout Reservoir(335 - 435 MGD)

Rondout-West Branch Tunnel(335 - 435 MGD)

West BranchKensico Tunnel(385 - 485 MGD)

AshokanReservoir

(35 - 135 MGD)

AshokanKensico Reach(35 - 135 MGD)

Dependability Below Kensico

Pressurization of Catskill Aqueduct from Kensico Reservoir to the UV Facility at Eastview

Kensico – City Tunnel (Previously known as City Tunnel No. 3 Stage 3)

The Bronx – Queens Tunnel (Previously known as City Tunnel No. 3 Stage 4)

City Tunnel No.3(Stage 2, Manhattan Leg)

2007 RWBT Identified as Primary Area of Concern

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RWBT conveys Delaware system water and is the primary source for Towns of Newburgh and Marlborough and approximately 50% of New York City’s supply

Project Background - Roseton Surface ExpressionA dozen or so surface expressions

Flow observed on west bank of Hudson River

Testing program and analysis estimates leakage of 15 to 35 mgd.

Roseton Leakage

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How Long will the Tunnel be Out of Service?

2007 Shutdown Schedule

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Supply to Eliminate Maximum Shortfall

Supply to Eliminate 95th %ile Shortfall

Supply to Eliminate 90th %ile Shortfall

Supply to Eliminate 75th %ile Shortfall

Supply to Eliminate 50th %ile Shortfall

2008 Shortfall Curve

Potential Solutions for Dependability

Demand Reduction

Interconnections

Expand Groundwater Use

Croton Pump Stations

Increase Aqueduct Capacities

Hudson River and Harbor Surface Water, Hudson Groundwater

Abandoned Sources (Westchester Co.)

Parallel Tunnels

Project Tiering/Prioritization – Focuses Effort on Best Projects and Combinations

Augmentation Project Screening

Delaware Repair: Alternative water sources

Project evaluation to identify a group of projects to meet NYC’s alternate water supply needs (2008)

39 Projects

26 Projects

Project ID Project Name CAPACITYEF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100EF-08b Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). And Press NCA, 100 mgd w/ WTP 100NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75NJ-8 NJAW & MWC w/ DEP Del. Div. Canal Road WTP to SI 125NJ-6 NJAW w/ Del. Div. to Staten Island (110 MGD) 110NJ-9 NJ DEP Del. Div. w/ DEP WTP 300 MGD 300NJ-10 NJ-New Tunnel & Del Div, w/o NJ WTP 300 MGD 300HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200EF-16a Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 mgd w/ Clar. + NCA press and UV @ Eastview 200EF-16b Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 MGD w/ Filt + NCA Press and WTP @ Eastview 200HR-02a Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 200 MGD 200HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50

HR-02b Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 400 MGD 400

HR-02d Hudson Desal to Hillview Res. - 400 MGD 400

HR-01b Hudson Desal Catskill Crossing to Eastview - 400 MGD 400HR-02c Hudson Desal to Hillview Res. - 200 MGD 200HR-01a Hudson Desal Catskill Crossing to Eastview - 200 MGD 200GW-BQ-05 ASR in Magothy Aquifer 55GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75GW-NC-03 GW Nassau County w/ New Wells & WTP 50

GW-BQ-07 ASR in Lloyd Aquifer 50GW-BQ-01cJamaica Phase 3 +30 MGD 30GW-BQ-01bJamaica Phase 2 +70 MGD 70DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12EF-03b Press. New Croton Aq. w/ UV @ Eastview 0EF-03d Press. New Croton Aq. w/ WTP @ Eastview 0PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400PA-Eastern RouteEastern Route 400PA-Western RouteWestern Route 400

Project ID Project Name CAPACITYEF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100EF-08b Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). And Press NCA, 100 mgd w/ WTP 100NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75NJ-8 NJAW & MWC w/ DEP Del. Div. Canal Road WTP to SI 125NJ-6 NJAW w/ Del. Div. to Staten Island (110 MGD) 110HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200EF-16a Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 mgd w/ Clar. + NCA press and UV @ Eastview 200EF-16b Chelsea PS to Amawalk 200 MGD w/ Filt + NCA Press and WTP @ Eastview 200HR-02a Hudson Desal - Westchester to Eastview - 200 MGD 200HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50GW-BQ-05 ASR in Magothy Aquifer 55GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75GW-NC-03 GW Nassau County w/ New Wells & WTP 50DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400PA-Eastern RouteEastern Route 400

Factors:•Cost•Schedule•DEP Control

Key:

Redundant tunnels

Optimization of existing system

Groundwater

Desalinization of Hudson River or Harbor water

Interconnections to New Jersey or Connecticut

Delaware Repair: Alternative water sources

Top 26 Projects falls to 17 with the removal of mutually exclusive projects.

Project ID Project Name CAPACITY

Cumul. Capacity Low High

EF-11 Increase Catskill Aqueduct 600 to 660 MGD 60 60 6 10 338$ -$ 1.24$ 3DM-04 Expanded Demand Reduction Program 20 80 8 11 228$ -$ 1.42$ 3GW-BQ-01aJamaica Phase 1 55 MGD 55 135 9 10 914$ 607$ 6.06$ 3GW-BQ-04 Brackish GW Desalination 40 175 11 13 623$ 501$ 6.16$ 3GW-BQ-06 Use Brooklyn Dewatering Wells 20 195 9 11 353$ 217$ 6.24$ 3EF-08a Housatonic (Ten-Mile Rv). 100 mgd w/ UV @ Eastview 100 295 8 9 495$ 91$ 1.28$ 2EF-13a Abandoned Sources - Yonkers 15 MGD WTP 15 310 7 9 100$ 123$ 3.27$ 2PA-East-RWBRondout West Branch only 400 710 14 19 4,338$ -$ 2.38$ 2HR-04a Hudson-Chelsea PS & Clarifier to West Branch 200 mgd 200 910 11 15 2,695$ 386$ 3.38$ 2HR-06b Hudson Aquifer at Ossing to Eastview by OCA - 25 MGD 25 935 8 10 337$ 38$ 3.29$ 2HR-04b Hudson-Chelsea PS & WTP to West Branch 200 mgd 200 1135 11 15 2,906$ 395$ 3.62$ 2NJ-2 Middlesex WC to Staten Island (15 mgd) 15 1150 8 9 25$ 13$ 0.91$ 1RU-01ab Wastewater Reuse Industrial Customers 12 1162 8 11 367$ 281$ 7.52$ 2NJ-1 NJAW to Staten Island (50 mgd) 50 1212 8 9 338$ 273$ 4.59$ 1HR-03a Hudson-Staten Island Desal (50 MGD) 50 1262 10 13 1,482$ 966$ 10.72$ 2GW-NC-02 GW Nassau County (using existing wells) 75 1337 11 13 1,155$ 505$ 6.74$ 1NJ-4a NJAW w/ Confluence to Staten Island (75 MGD) 75 1412 9 11 1,184$ 610$ 6.09$ 1

COST (2008$)DEP

ControlRange

Capital O&M Present Worth

$/1,000 gal

SCHEDULE

Duel path – Alternate Supply / Parallel Tunnel

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Moving to Design In 2008 and 2009 DEP hired new consultant team to develop parallel

tunnel and bypass tunnel concepts to address the RWBT leaks

Stage 9

Stage 7

Stage 2

Stage 5

Stage 1

Catskill Connection

Hudson River Connection

WawarsingRoseton

EL 840

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Shaft 6 Tunnel Unwatering Shaft

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West Branch Reservoir

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Repair of the LeaksSh

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Wawarsing Repairs:

Possible from within tunnel

Access via Shaft 2A

Confinement Relatively good

Roseton Repairs

Not possible from within tunnel

Access requires new shafts

Best Solution is Bypass

Bypass Tunnel Construction

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Recent Modeling

In 2010 DEP shifted from evaluating a full repair of the RWBT to constructing a bypass around the leak in Roston, NY

This bypass included the use of inundation plugs to handle tunnel inundation, resulting in approximately a month shutdown period for the connection

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Supply Curve at Varying Percentiles100% 90% 75% 50%

OST Supply Curve (2012-02-01)

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OSTv1.3.7.1_Aug-SC_000

Runs were conducted for these four supply levels

Objectives (during an outage): Provide advance notice of potential shortfall conditions Provide DEP with enough time to take some preventive action

Objectives (now, during the planning process): Accurately simulate operations during an outage Provide a fuller picture of how various augmentation projects

perform Provide a framework to help support DEP’s risk analysis

Uncertainties in augmentation project capacity Uncertainties in RWB repair duration

Threshold Approach - Objectives

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Cumulative probability of demand reductions Cumulative probability of demobilization

Likelihood of Emergency Actions for 15-Month Outage

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Big Break Through!!!

Inundation Plugs not necessary!!! This resulted in the following:

A shorter shutdown period for the connection of approximately 10 months

A phased connection of the bypass tunnel to the RWBT

Allowed for an evaluation of shorter shutdown periods and bailout contingencies

We evaluated four phased approaches:

Fixed Staging

4 month / 3 month / 3 month

5/5

6/4

Variable Stage (10 months total but can be broken and phased over 3 years)

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Recent Modeling Results

Where we are now!

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Water Demand and Dry Weather Wastewater FlowsHistoric Flows and Future Projections 2012

Water Supply System Augmentation and Improvement

Conservation / Demand Management

Upper Catskill Aqueduct Optimization

Queens Groundwater Rehabilitation

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Modeling Results End of 2012

As a result of three workshops, extensive modeling, and shutdown design updates:

Variable Stage Shutdown allows for complete shutdown in one phase

Includes a repair start on Oct 1 with augmentation starting June 1

Provides for a singular phase repair based on modeling using forecasted 60 day look ahead for continuation of shutdown or bailout from repair

Provides for allowance for remaining repair to be completed in subsequent years, if necessary

58 mgd of augmentation (33 mgd Groundwater + 25 mgd Demand Management)

Catskill Aqueduct maximum flow increased to 636 mgd via Catskill Rehabilitation Project

Croton WFP flow at 250 mgd to account for diurnal demand pattern.

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Outage Surface Plot: Variable Outage

Year 1 Year 2 Year 3

Most outages start in October

Index 560Outage_Pattern VarSourceNY_Q 58

New_Crot_Aq_max 290CatAq_max 636Reserve_Buffer 10%NYC_Demand_level 1070

Temp_vary_Demand 0Substantially longer Stage 1 outage duration with 10% reserve and CAT 636

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Likelihood of Completion: Variable Staging

Month #1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

4 lines for each color – these represent:• NCA 250 / Demand Pattern• NCA 290 / Demand Pattern• NCA 250 / Demand Regression• NCA 290 / Demand Regression

This plot shows the likelihood of completing 300 total outage days over a period of up to 3 years.

Like

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Shows probability of successfully completing the variable stage shutdown repair during a three consecutive year period

Allows for three chances to complete the 10 month (300 day) repair

Could complete entire 10 months in first year Or could complete remaining repair period during

subsequent one or two years if insufficient supply is available in first year

Fixed stage shutdowns do not allow for this flexibility since entire three year period is required for each repair period

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Stage Type Reserve CatAq NCA Demand 30 days 60 days 90 days 120 days 150 days 180 days 210 days 240 days 270 days 300 daysVariable 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%Variable 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99%Variable 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99%Variable 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 97% 96%Variable 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 99% 99% 99% 96% 96%

433 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96%433 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96%433 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 96% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%433 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 95% 95% 90% 90%433 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 100% 97% 96% 95% 95% 90% 90%55 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%55 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 96% 96% 96%55 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 95% 92% 92%55 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 94% 90% 90%55 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 96% 96% 87% 87%55 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 99% 96% 96% 96% 95% 86% 86%55 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 92% 82% 65% 65%55 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 95% 91% 79% 64% 64%64 10% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 97% 97% 95% 95% 95% 95% 95%64 10% 636 250 Pattern 100% 100% 100% 97% 97% 96% 96% 95% 95% 95%64 10% 590 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 95% 94% 91% 91%64 10% 590 250 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 97% 96% 95% 94% 91% 91%64 25% 636 290 Pattern 100% 100% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 91% 87% 87%64 25% 636 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 97% 96% 96% 96% 90% 85% 85%64 25% 590 290 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 92% 87% 72% 67% 67%64 25% 590 250 Pattern 100% 99% 99% 96% 96% 92% 86% 72% 68% 68%

Likelihood of Completion: Summary Table

99% Probability of

Success!

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Next Steps

Continue refining shutdown design and modeling

Continue thinking about issues that could arise

Develop operational plans for shutdown