nj shares evaluation of 2012 grants

NJ SHARES Evaluation of 2012 Grants

October 25, 2013

Evaluation Goals

• Characterize 2012 NJ SHARES grant recipients

• Characterize 2012 NJ SHARES grants

• Examine good faith payments

• Analyze post-grant payment compliance

2

Evaluation Components

• Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis– Characterizes grant recipients– Characterizes grants

• Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis– “Good Faith” Payment Analysis– Grant Coverage Analysis– Post-Grant Payment Compliance

3

Evaluation Data

• Data received from all utilities.– ACE– ETG– NJNG– PSE&G– RECO– SJG– JCP&L

4

NJ SHARES Database AnalysisGrant Counts

5

Number of Grants Grant Dollars

2007 Recipients 6,536 $3,842,183

2008 Recipients 11,950 $7,127,444

2009 Recipients 18,534 $11,342,111

2010 Recipients 11,635 $7,125,485

2011 Recipients 3,193 $1,667,327

2012 Recipients 2,461 $1,458,928

NJ SHARES Database AnalysisGrant Counts by Fuel Supplier

6

2012 Grants

UtilityNumber of

GrantsPercent of All

GrantsGrant Dollars

Percent of Grant Dollars

ACE 185 8% $65,757 5%

ETG 90 4% $47,533 3%

JCP&L 338 14% $119,200 8%

NJNG 183 7% $86,042 6%

PSE&G 1,524 62% $1,066,536 73%

RECO 6 <1% $2,335 <1%

SJG 133 5% $70,129 5%

Oil/Propane 2 <1% $1,396 <1%

TOTAL 2,461 100% $1,458,928 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by Grant Type

7

2012 Grants

Grant TypeNumber of

GrantsPercent of All

GrantsGrant Dollars

Percent of Grant Dollars

Electric Only 648 26% $185,664 13%

Gas Only 520 21% $266,633 18%

Electric & Gas 1,120 46% $897,436 62%

Electric Heat 171 7% $107,799 7%

Oil 2 <1% $1,396 <1%

Propane 0 0% $0 0%

TOTAL 2,461 100% $1,458,928 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by County

8

2012 Grant Recipients

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

Atlantic 107 4.4% Middlesex 176 7.2%

Bergen 136 5.5% Monmouth 242 9.8%

Burlington 167 6.8% Morris 84 3.4%

Camden 159 6.5% Ocean 134 5.4%

Cape May 4 0.2% Passaic 52 2.1%

Cumberland 8 0.3% Salem 17 0.7%

Essex 424 17.2% Somerset 89 3.6%

Gloucester 106 4.3% Sussex 19 0.8%

Hudson 226 9.2% Union 150 6.1%

Hunterdon 7 0.3% Warren 27 1.1%

Mercer 127 5.2% TOTAL 2,461 100.0%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by Agency Type

9

Agency Type

Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012 Q1 2013

# % # % # % # % # % # % # %

Legislative Office

0 0% 64 2% 1,595 14% 789 12% 159 8% 57 6% 87 12%

Other Nonprofit

3,718 100% 4,194 98% 9,676 86% 5,727 88% 1,745 92% 933 94% 639 88%

TOTAL 3,718 4,258 11,271 6,516 1,904 990 726

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Number of Years of Grant Receipt

10

Number of Years

Percent of Grant Recipients

2010 Evaluation

2011 Evaluation

2012 Evaluation

2013 Evaluation

1 Year 78% 79% 77% 77%

2 Years 15% 14% 15% 15%

3 Years 4% 4% 5% 5%

4 Years 2% 2% 2% 2%

5 Years 1% 1% 1% 1%

6 Years <1% <1% <1% <1%

7 Years N/A <1% <1% <1%

8 Years N/A N/A <1% <1%

9 Years N/A N/A N/A 0%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Income Sources

11

Income Source

2005 Recipients

2006Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

Employment 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 83% 78% 80%

Pension or Social Security

12% 12% 13% 12% 14% 18% 23% 22%

Unemploy-ment Compensation

6% 5% 5% 5% 12% 15% 14% 11%

Disability 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5% 4%

Child Support 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4% 4%

Other 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 4% 3%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Annual Household Income

12

Annual Household

Income

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

<$20,000 6% 5% 3% <1% <1% <1% <1%

$20,000 - $29,999

28% 22% 18% 12% 9% 12% 12%

$30,000 - $39,999

29% 29% 26% 23% 21% 24% 25%

$40,000 - $49,999

19% 20% 21% 23% 21% 21% 23%

$50,000 + 19% 24% 32% 41% 48% 42% 40%

Mean Annual Income

$38,921 $41,844 $45,567 $49,133 $51,931 $49,429 $48,578

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Poverty Level

13

Household Poverty Level

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

<175% 6% 5% 4% 1% <1% <1% 1%

175-199% 24% 20% 20% 4% 2% 5% 8%

200-224% 18% 17% 16% 11% 3% 15% 15%

225% - 249% 14% 13% 14% 22% 17% 18% 16%

250% - 299% 16% 17% 18% 31% 36% 28% 27%

300% + 22% 28% 29% 32% 42% 34% 34%

Mean Poverty Level

257% 273% 277% 280% 294% 278% 275%

LIHEAP Eligible 175% 175% 175% 225% 225% 200% 200%

Note 1: As of January 23, 2009, income eligibility is capped at 400% of poverty.Note 2: LIHEAP eligibility is for fiscal years.

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Composition

14

Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

Household Composition

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

<6 Years Old

29% 26% 28% 23% 22% 20% 20% 19%

≤ 18 Years Old

61% 60% 64% 58% 57% 54% 51% 52%

> 60 Years Old

8% 8% 13% 12% 16% 18% 21% 19%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Agencies Focused on Seniors

15

2011 RecipientsElderly Agencies Other Agencies All Agencies

# % # % # %Household Member Over 60

No 159 78% 2,366 79% 2,525 79%Yes 45 22% 623 21% 668 21%

Total 204 100% 2,989 100% 3,193 100%% of all recipients 6% 94% 100%

2012 RecipientsElderly Agencies Other Agencies All Agencies

# % # % # %Household Member Over 60

No 133 71% 1,865 82% 1,998 81%Yes 54 29% 409 18% 463 19%

Total 187 100% 2,274 100% 2,461 100%% of all recipients 8% 92% 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Composition

16

Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.

Household Composition

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

Single Parent

14% 13% 27% 24% 21% 18% 17% 21%

Elderly Only

4% 5% 9% 7% 8% 9% 12% 10%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Main Heating Fuel

17

Main Heating

Fuel

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

Natural Gas

82% 83% 84% 84% 83% 81% 78% 88%

Electric 13% 11% 11% 11% 7% 6% 11% 7%

Oil 5% 5% 4% 4% 10% 12% 10% 4%

Propane <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1% <1%

Other <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Reported Bill Balance

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

< $250 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8% 6%

$250 - $499 25% 20% 23% 21% 19% 20% 23% 20%

$500 - $749 23% 22% 24% 21% 19% 20% 23% 21%

$750 - $999 16% 15% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16% 18%

$1,000 + 29% 35% 29% 35% 40% 37% 30% 35%

Mean Balance

$892 $993 $879 $963 $1,070 $1,028 $936 $1,028

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Grant Type 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients2008

Recipients2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients2012

Recipients

Electric Only

$563 $566 $557 $635 $723 $687 $737 $767

Gas Only $654 $740 $762 $782 $831 $776 $764 $685

Electric & Gas

$1,108 $1,268 $1,168 $1,298 $1,443 $1,407 $1,438 $1,332

Electric Heat

$831 $823 $904 $1,010 $1,048 $1,088 $1,036 $1,093

All Grants $892 $993 $879 $963 $1,070 $1,028 $936 $1,028

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Application

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Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

Collections Actions

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

Past Due Balance

8% 3% 17% 20% 26% 30% 38% 27%

Past Due Warning Notice

47% 18% 17% 19% 23% 18% 13% 9%

Shut-Off Date Not Passed

20% 22% 20% 17% 16% 19% 15% 21%

Shut-Off Date Passed

26% 49% 41% 39% 32% 30% 27% 34%

Utility Shut-Off 0% 9% 4% 6% 3% 3% 8% 10%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Reason for Grant Application

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Reason for Application

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

2012 Recipients

Temporary Financial Crisis

60% 68% -- -- -- -- -- --

High Energy Costs

27% 24% 69% 77% 78% 73% 71% 76%

Medical/Health 7% 5% 11% 8% 6% 6% 8% 7%

Unemployment 3% 2% 6% 4% 8% 10% 11% 9%

Reduced Hours/Change in Employment

-- -- 6% 5% 6% 8% 7% 7%

Other 3% 2% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2% 2%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Guidelines - Maximum Grant Amounts

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Grant Amount

2005 2006-2007 2008-2012

Electric Only $250 $300 $300

Gas Only $250 $700 $700

Electric & Gas $500 $1,000 $1,000

Electric Heat $500 $700 $700

Oil/Propane -- -- $700

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Amounts

23

2012 Recipients

Grant Amount

Grant Type

Electric Only

Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat

Oil Propane

< $300 16% 17% 4% 5% 0% --

$300 84% <1% 0% 0% 0% --

$301 - $699 0% 49% 27% 24% 100% --

$700 0% 34% <1% 71% 0% --

$701 - $999 0% 0% 24% 0% 0% --

$1,000 0% 0% 45% 0% 0% --

Mean Grant $287 $513 $801 $630 $698 --

NJ SHARES Database Analysis % Receiving Max Grant Allowed

24

Grant Type

Electric Only

Gas Only

Electric & Gas

Electric Heat

Oil Propane

2005 89% 89% 76% 67% -- --

2006 67% 40% 40% 48% -- --

2007 75% 50% 43% 58% -- --

2008 78% 47% 53% 62% 16% --

2009 80% 56% 62% 65% 15% --

2010 82% 48% 62% 71% 17% 9%

2011 82% 47% 53% 71% 46% <1%

2012 84% 34% 45% 71% 100% --

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean Grant Amount By Utility

25

Utility 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients2008

Recipients2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients2012

Recipients

ACE $286 $331 $329 $350 $359 $367 $380 $355

ETG $237 $504 $572 $579 $589 $541 $536 $528

JCP&L $278 $303 $333 $329 $332 $339 $362 $353

NJNG $246 $557 $563 $547 $583 $551 $571 $470

PSE&G $420 $669 $698 $710 $704 $740 $659 $700

RECO $237 $284 $319 $326 $309 $303 $360 $389

SJG $236 $544 $586 $565 $594 $580 $555 $527

PART 2Utility Data Analysis Methodology• Focused on Q1 2012 grant recipients

• Transaction data from utilities

• Files contain payments, charges, account balances

• Analyzed:

– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”

– Grant coverage of pre-grant balances

– Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals

• Used Q1 2011 and Q1 2013 recipients as comparison groups

26

Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions

27

2011

Q1 2012 ANALYSIS PERIOD



GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAYGRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

2012 2013

GRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

1 YEAR

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition

28

• The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account.

• Only payments made by the customer are counted.

INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS

INTAKE DATE

GRANT DATE

“GOOD FAITH” PERIOD

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAttrition Analysis

29

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients

Number Submitted 1,883 981 629

Number Returned 1,853 970 625

Eligible for Analysis*

1,778 870 568

Percent of Requested Accounts

94% 89% 90%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data, the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data, and there were at least three months of pre-grant utility data.

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment

30

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients

Utility That Received Grant

97% 96% 94%

Any Utility 99% 97% 96%

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment By Utility

31

Q1 2013 Recipients

UtilityNumber of Customers

Percentage Making “Good Faith” Payment

Utility That Received Grant

Any Utility

ACE 32 81% 81%

ETG 22 82% 82%

JCP&L 53 92% 100%

NJNG 41 85% 90%

PSE&G 384 98% 98%

RECO 1 100% 100%

SJG 35 80% 91%

TOTAL 568 94% 96%

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Amount of Good Faith Payments Made

32

PaymentsQ1 2011

RecipientsQ1 2012

RecipientsQ1 2013

Recipients

$0 2% 2% 3%

$1 - $99 2% 2% 3%

$100 8% 22% 25%

$101 - $250 23% 26% 26%

$251 - $500 30% 26% 24%

$501 + 34% 23% 19%

Mean Payment $541 $366 $320

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Amount of Good Faith Payments MadeBy Utility

33

Q1 2013 Recipients

Payments ACE ETG JCP&L NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers

32 22 53 41 384 1 35 568

$0 9% 9% 4% 5% 2% 0% 6% 3%

$1 - $99 9% 9% 4% 10% 1% 0% 14% 3%

$100 22% 27% 19% 12% 27% 0% 26% 25%

$101 - $250 9% 36% 28% 41% 24% 0% 31% 26%

$251 - $500 28% 18% 28% 22% 24% 0% 20% 24%

$501 + 22% 0% 17% 10% 22% 100% 3% 19%

Mean Payment

$295 $151 $313 $225 $353 $1,813 $166 $320

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAmount of Good Faith Payments Made By Poverty Level

34

Q1 2013 Recipients

PaymentsFederal Poverty Level

<225% 225-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%

$0 1% 4% 5% 2%

$1 - $99 2% 6% 4% 1%

$100 27% 26% 25% 23%

$101 - $250 31% 29% 18% 28%

$251 - $500 22% 18% 25% 28%

$501 + 17% 17% 23% 17%

Mean Payment $320 $288 $347 $314

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100

35

PaymentsQ1 2011

RecipientsQ1 2012

RecipientsQ1 2013

Recipients

25th Percentile 1 1 1



Mean Number of Payments

2.4 2.1 2.0

Grant Coverage AnalysisAttrition Analysis

36

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients



Eligible for Analysis*

1,692 902 600


98% 94% 98%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data and the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data.

Grant Coverage AnalysisGrant Coverage

37

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $954 $957 $1,120

Mean Grant $486 $623 $648

Mean Post-Grant Balance $468 $333 $472

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

74% 80% 78%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Utility

38

Q1 2012 Recipients

ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers 50 40 106 51 612 2 41 902

Mean Pre-Grant Balance

$1,133 $728 $767 $719 $1,026 $457 $732 $957

Mean Grant $352 $538 $362 $492 $717 $291 $490 $623

Mean Post-Grant Balance

$781 $190 $405 $226 $309 $166 $242 $333


47% 79% 62% 79% 86% 65% 77% 80%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Grant Type

39

Q1 2012 Recipients

Electric Only

Gas OnlyElectric &

GasElectric

Heat

Number of Customers 193 183 460 66

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $721 $789 $1,091 $1,174

Mean Grant $287 $538 $801 $606

Mean Post-Grant Balance $434 $251 $290 $567


58% 79% 91% 72%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Main Heating Fuel

40

Q1 2012 Recipients

Electric Gas Oil Other


Mean Pre-Grant Balance $1,159 $950 $737 $471

Mean Grant $597 $640 $293 $300

Mean Post-Grant Balance $562 $310 $444 $171


72% 81% 67% 67%

Payment Compliance AnalysisAttrition Analysis

41

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients



Accounts with Usable Data*

1,692 958 615

Amount of Data Available for Analysis

3 Months 1,331 864 489

6 Months 1,252 806 466

9 Months 1,156 723 434

12 Months 1,089 672 404


64% 70% 66%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data and the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

42

Date Range

Months after

Grants

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q1 2013 Recipients

Q2 2012 3 Months 129% 85% 135%

Q3 2012 6 Months 116% 93% 125%

Q4 2012 9 Months 111% 94% 105%

Q1 2013 12 Months >99% 85% 80%

Good payment coverage 2nd year after grant

Payment compliance declines at the end of the year following grant receipt.

Payment compliance declines prior to grant receipt.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

43

Q1 2009 Recipients Q1 2010 Recipients Q1 2011 RecipientsQ1 2012

Recipients

Year After Grant Receipt



First Year After Grant

ReceiptFirst Second First Second First Second

3 Months 97% 162% 96% 147% 96% 129% 85%

6 Months 102% 142% 102% 137% 101% 116% 93%

9 Months 95% 118% 96% 123% 104% 111% 94%

12 Months 89% 104% 90% 112% 98% >99% 85%

Accounts Included 5,634 4,426 4,211 3,350 1,429 1,089 672

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid By Utility

44

Q1 2012 Recipients

ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers

42 26 72 36 461 2 33 672

3 Months 99% 61% 97% 58% 86% 110% 72% 85%

6 Months 93% 89% 97% 90% 93% 85% 100% 93%

9 Months 94% 82% 102% 93% 94% 83% 84% 94%

12 Months 96% 75% 96% 68% 86% 95% 70% 85%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 90 and 100 Percent of Billed Amount

45

2nd year after grant 1st year after grant Year before grant

Date Range

Month after Grant

Q1 2011 Recipients Q1 2012 Recipients Q1 2013 Recipients

Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%

Q2 2012 3 Months 64% 71% 30% 37% 60% 66%

Q3 2012 6 Months 62% 73% 33% 44% 63% 71%

Q4 2012 9 Months 62% 78% 33% 49% 51% 62%

Q1 2013 12 Months 46% 71% 22% 39% 14% 32%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 100 Percent of Billed Amount

46


Recipients






3 Months 37% 70% 36% 69% 40% 64% 30%

6 Months 43% 71% 42% 72% 44% 62% 33%

9 Months 39% 65% 38% 71% 51% 62% 33%

12 Months 27% 54% 26% 70% 41% 46% 22%


Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 90 Percent of Billed Amount

47


Recipients






3 Months 45% 75% 44% 76% 49% 71% 37%

6 Months 54% 79% 53% 81% 59% 73% 44%

9 Months 55% 77% 54% 84% 70% 78% 49%

12 Months 48% 73% 47% 86% 65% 71% 39%


Payment Compliance Analysis By Utility

48

Q1 2012 Recipients

Pay≥100% ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG

3 Months 45% 23% 33% 17% 30% 50% 27%

6 Months 36% 23% 40% 25% 31% 50% 42%

9 Months 38% 15% 44% 33% 32% 0% 33%

12 Months 45% 12% 33% 11% 19% 50% 18%

Accounts Included

42 26 72 36 461 2 33

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance By Utility

49

$0 $200 $400 $600 $800

$1,000

Starting Balance

3 Months

6 Months

9 Months

12 Months

Q1 2012 Recipients ACE ETGJCPLNJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis

50

14%

12%

5%69%

Percent of Q1 2012 Recipients

Ending Balance < $100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100

Balance Increased by < $100

Balance Increased by ≥ $100

Marginal Success (5%)

Need More Help (69%)

Successful (26%)


51


Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Q1 2009 Recipients

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Successful 26% 24% 19% 32% 32% 49% 26%

Marginal Success 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7% 5%

Need More Help

67% 70% 76% 61% 62% 44% 69%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


52

Q1 2012 Recipients

Grant TypeEnding Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending

Balance ≥ $100

Balance Increased by

<$100


≥ $100TOTAL

Electric Only 22% 23% 8% 47% 100%

Gas Only 17% 5% 5% 73% 100%

Electric & Gas

9% 10% 4% 77% 100%

Electric Heat 17% 19% 4% 61% 100%


53

23%

27%12%

37%

Percent of Q1 2011 Recipients2nd Year After Grant Receipt

Ending Balance < $100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100

Balance Increased by < $100

Balance Increased by ≥ $100

Marginal Success (12%)

Need More Help (37%)

Successful (50%)


54


Recipients






Successful 32% 57% 32% 73% 49% 50% 26%

Marginal Success

6% 9% 6% 7% 7% 12% 5%

Need More Help

61% 34% 62% 20% 44% 37% 69%

Accounts Included

5,634 4,426 4,211 3,350 1,429 1,089 672

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis By Utility

55

Q1 2012 Recipients

Successful

Marginal Success

Need More Help

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis By Utility

56

Q1 2012 Recipients

Successful

Marginal SuccessNeed More Help


57

Q1 2012 Recipients

Ending Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance

≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100


Percent of Customers 14% 12% 5% 69%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $696 $1,722 $869 $880

Mean Grant Amount $521 $625 $536 $640

Mean Post-Grant Balance $175 $1,097 $333 $240

Mean Number of Payments* 10 10 10 8

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 114% 125% 97% 71%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


58

Q1 2012 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Charges $2,015 $2,599 $2,238 $2,483

Mean Payments $2,261 $3,185 $2,183 $1,819


59

Q1 2012 Recipients

Balance Increased by $100 - $399


Balance Increased by $1,000 +

Number of Customers 176 216 70

Percent of Customers 26% 32% 10%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $855 $810 $1,157

Mean Grant Amount $568 $643 $807

Mean Post-Grant Balance $286 $166 $350

Mean Number of Payments* 8 8 9

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 85% 66% 54%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


60

Q1 2012 Recipients






Mean Charges $2,143 $2,344 $3,768

Mean Payments $1,896 $1,695 $2,009

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation AnalysisMean Charges

61

Q1 2012 Recipients

Grant TypeBalance

Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +

Electric Only $2,038 $2,266 $3,914

Gas Only $1,458 $1,550 $2,061

Electric & Gas $2,483 $2,728 $3,862

Electric Heat $2,278 $2,433 $3,998

TOTAL $2,143 $2,344 $3,768


62

Q1 2012 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Starting Balance $182 $1,325 $383 $241

Mean Ending Balance -$65 $739 $437 $905

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 88% 100% 100% 14%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 68% 100% 0% 0%


63

Q1 2012 Recipients






Mean Starting Balance $284 $168 $361

Mean Ending Balance $530 $817 $2,120

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 34% 2% 0%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 0% 0% 0%


Q1 2012 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Median Annual Income $43,158 $51,000 $46,920 $47,592

< 225% FPL 17% 8% 20% 18%

225% - 249% FPL 11% 16% 17% 15%

250% - 299% FPL 35% 31% 34% 29%

≥ 300% FPL 37% 45% 29% 38%

Percent Single-Parent 20% 27% 26% 23%

Percent Elderly-Only 13% 10% 9% 8%

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65

Q1 2012 Recipients






Median Annual Income $46,134 $48,228 $47,880

< 225% FPL 19% 19% 16%

225% - 249% FPL 20% 12% 14%

250% - 299% FPL 26% 30% 33%

≥ 300% FPL 35% 40% 37%

Percent Single-Parent 21% 26% 17%

Percent Elderly-Only 7% 7% 11%

Payment Compliance Analysis Households with Income Below 225%

Q1 2012 Recipients

SuccessfulBalance

Increased by <$100




$1,000 +

Percent of Customers

20% 6% 29% 36% 10%

Mean Pre Grant Balance

$1,097 $969 $760 $760 $797

Mean Post Grant Balance

$503 $223 $235 $133 $43

Mean Charges $1,975 $2,642 $1,587 $2,363 $3,553

Mean Payments $2,289 $2,590 $1,345 $1,740 $1,629

Mean Ending Balance

$145 $308 $477 $756 $1,967

Percent with >1 Year Grant Receipt

35% 14% 18% 37% 18%66

Payment Compliance Analysis Burden for Households with Income Below 225% by Grant Type

Q1 2012 Recipients

SuccessfulBalance

Increased by <$100




$1,000 +

Electric Non-Heating (20 customers)

Mean Charges $1,885 -- $1,679 $1,823 $3,145

Mean Burden 6% -- 6% 4% 8%

Gas (22 customers)

Mean Charges $1,929 -- $1,032 $1,486 $2,076

Mean Burden 7% -- 3% 3% 5%

Electric Heating (11 customers)

Mean Charges $2,642 -- $1,961 $3,506 $3,836

Mean Burden 8% -- 5% 9% 10%

Electric and Gas (62 customers)

Mean Charges $1,760 $2,642 $1,771 $2,662 $3,753

Mean Burden 5% 7% 5% 8% 10% 67

Payment Compliance Analysis Burden for Households with Income Below 225% by Grant Type

Q1 2011 Recipients – 2nd Year after Grant

SuccessfulBalance

Increased by <$100




$1,000 +

Electric Non-Heating (115 customers)

Mean Charges $2,311 $2,086 $2,351 $2,199 $3,869

Mean Burden 6% 5% 5% 6% 7%

Gas (47 customers)

Mean Charges $1,456 $849 $1,552 $1,382 --

Mean Burden 4% 3% 3% 4% --

Electric Heating (37 customers)

Mean Charges $2,133 $1,780 $2,615 $2,490 $5,279

Mean Burden 7% 6% 7% 9% 15%

Electric and Gas (24 customers)

Mean Charges $2,964 $1,964 $1,579 $2,274 $3,319

Mean Burden 8% 6% 4% 8% 7% 68

Receipt of Energy AssistancePercent Who Received USF or LIHEAPIn the 12 Months Following Grant Receipt

69

Q1 2012 Recipients

Utility Number of Customers Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 42 2%

ETG 26 8%

JCP&L 72 4%

NJNG 36 6%

PSE&G 461 8%

RECO 2 50%

SJG 33 6%

TOTAL 672 7%

Receipt of Energy AssistancePercent Who Received USF or LIHEAP In the “Good Faith” Period

70

Q1 2012 Recipients

Utility Number of Customers Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 42 2%

ETG 26 0%

JCP&L 72 1%

NJNG 36 0%

PSE&G 461 1%

RECO 2 0%

SJG 33 0%

TOTAL 672 1%

Key Findings

• NJ SHARES serves needy households.– 19% have children under the age of six

– 21% are single parent households

– 19% have a family member over 60

– 60% have annual income below $50,000

• NJ SHARES provides grants to those in temporary need of assistance.– 77% received a grant in only one of the past nine years.

– Recipients made an average of 2.0 payments and $320 in payments in the 90 days preceding the grant.

• Changes in types of households served.– More likely to have natural gas as main heating fuel

– More likely to have shutoff date passed or be shut off

– Less likely to only have past due balance71

Key Findings

• NJ SHARES continues to serve those hit by the recession.– 11% of 2012 recipients reported receipt of unemployment

compensation, down slightly from 2010 and 2011, but still higher than pre-2009.

– 9% of 2012 recipients reported unemployment as reason for grant application, higher than pre-2009.

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Key Findings

• Electric Grants Maximum– 84% of electric only grant recipients received the $300 maximum.

– 71% of electric heat grantees received the $700 maximum

– Electric only grants covered an average of 58% of pre-grant balance.

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Key Findings

• Grant recipients did not do as well in the year following grant receipt as in the past.– 26% of Q1 2012 recipients were successful in their first year, down from

49% in 2011 and 32% in 2010.

• Many grant recipients may need more than one year to get back on their feet.– Grant recipients improve their payment behavior in the second year after

grant receipt compared to the first (50% successful). However, this is lower than in the past.

• The only observable difference between more and less successful recipients is that those with higher bills build up greater balances in the year following grant receipt.– These households may be a good target for subsidized energy efficiency

services.

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nj shares evaluation of 2012 grants

Documents

nj shares evaluation

grant receipt

income eligibility

fiscal years

evaluation componentspart

evaluation goalscharacterize

evaluation datadata

electric gas1