nj shares evaluation of 2011 grants

NJ SHARES Evaluation of 2011 Grants

October 26, 2012

Evaluation Goals

• Characterize 2011 NJ SHARES grant recipients

• Characterize 2011 NJ SHARES grants

• Examine good faith payments

• Analyze post-grant payment compliance

2

Evaluation Components

• Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis– Characterizes grant recipients– Characterizes grants

• Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis– “Good Faith” Payment Analysis– Grant Coverage Analysis– Post-Grant Payment Compliance

3

Evaluation Data

• Data received from:– ACE– ETG– NJNG– PSE&G– RECO– SJG– JCP&L

4

NJ SHARES Database AnalysisGrant Counts

5

Number of Grants Grant Dollars

2007 Recipients 6,536 $3,842,183

2008 Recipients 11,950 $7,127,444

2009 Recipients 18,534 $11,342,111

2010 Recipients 11,635 $7,125,485

2011 Recipients 3,193 $1,667,327

NJ SHARES Database AnalysisGrant Counts by Fuel Supplier

6

2011 Grants

UtilityNumber of

GrantsPercent of All

GrantsGrant Dollars

Percent of Grant Dollars

ACE 254 8% $96,600 6%

ETG 202 6% $108,262 6%

JCP&L 972 30% $351,387 21%

NJNG 305 10% $174,067 10%

PSE&G 1,211 38% $797,536 48%

RECO 20 1% $7,202 <1%

SJG 180 6% $99,864 6%

Oil/Propane 49 2% $32,409 2%

TOTAL 3,193 100% $1,667,327 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by Fuel Supplier

7

Type Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

ACE 241 6% 244 6% 403 4% 309 5% 151 8% 56 6%

ETG 259 7% 289 7% 507 5% 219 3% 121 6% 41 4%

JCP&L 231 6% 467 11% 944 8% 603 9% 745 39% 107 11%

NJNG 81 2% 248 6% 537 5% 291 4% 194 10% 52 5%

PSE&G 2,565 69% 2,732 64% 7,648 68% 4,240 65% 577 30% 683 69%

RECO 17 <1% 15 <1% 23 <1% 18 <1% 15 1% 2 <1%

SJG 324 9% 263 6% 444 4% 265 4% 94 5% 47 5%

Others 0 0% 0 0% 54 <1% 33 1% 0 0% 0 0%

Oil/Propane 0 0% 0 0% 711 6% 538 8% 7 <1% 2 <1%

TOTAL 3,718 4,258 11,271 6,516 1,904 990

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by Grant Type

8

Type Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

Electric Only 715 19% 1,008 24% 2,104 19% 1,358 21% 857 45% 208 21%

Gas Only 832 22% 1,036 24% 1,993 18% 1,097 17% 481 25% 191 19%

Electric & Gas

2,031 55% 1,978 46% 5,808 52% 3,188 49% 311 16% 520 53%

Electric Heat 140 4% 236 6% 655 6% 335 5% 248 13% 69 7%

Oil -- -- -- -- 672 6% 513 8% 7 <1% 2 <1%

Propane -- -- -- -- 39 <1% 25 <1% -- -- -- --

TOTAL 3,718 4,258 11,271 6,516 1,904 990

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by County

9

2011 Grant Recipients

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

Atlantic 133 4.2% Middlesex 258 8.1%

Bergen 147 4.6% Monmouth 427 13.4%

Burlington 119 3.7% Morris 213 6.7%

Camden 177 5.5% Ocean 338 10.6%

Cape May 23 0.7% Passaic 89 2.8%

Cumberland 40 1.3% Salem 55 1.7%

Essex 249 7.8% Somerset 74 2.3%

Gloucester 94 2.9% Sussex 78 2.4%

Hudson 184 5.8% Union 242 7.6%

Hunterdon 50 1.6% Warren 95 3.0%

Mercer 108 3.4% TOTAL 3,193 100.0%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Counts by Agency Type

10

Agency Type

Q1 2007 Q1 2008 Q1 2009 Q1 2010 Q1 2011 Q1 2012

# % # % # % # % # % # %

Legislative Office

0 0% 64 2% 1,595 14% 789 12% 159 8% 97 10%

Other Nonprofit

3,718 100% 4,194 98% 9,676 86% 5,727 88% 1,745 92% 893 90%

TOTAL 3,718 4,258 11,271 6,516 1,904 990

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Number of Years of Grant Receipt

11

Number of Years

Percent of Grant Recipients

2010 Evaluation

2011 Evaluation

2012 Evaluation

1 Year 78% 79% 77%

2 Years 15% 14% 15%

3 Years 4% 4% 5%

4 Years 2% 2% 2%

5 Years 1% 1% 1%

6 Years <1% <1% <1%

7 Years N/A <1% <1%

8 Years N/A N/A <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Number of Household Members Contributing to Household Income

12

Number of Household Members

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

None <1 % 0% 0% <1% <1% <1% 0%

One 75% 73% 72% 71% 68% 68% 69%

Two 22% 24% 25% 26% 29% 29% 28%

Three or More

3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3% 3%

Mean Number

1.3 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.4 1.4

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Income Sources

13

Income Source 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients2008

Recipients2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients

Employment 88% 89% 88% 89% 86% 83% 78%

Pension or Social Security

12% 12% 13% 12% 14% 18% 23%

Unemployment Compensation

6% 5% 5% 5% 12% 15% 14%

Disability 5% 4% 5% 5% 4% 4% 5%

Child Support 4% 4% 3% 2% 3% 3% 4%

Other 3% 3% 3% 3% 4% 6% 4%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Annual Household Income

14

Annual Household

Income

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

<$20,000 6% 5% 3% <1% <1% <1%

$20,000 - $29,999 28% 22% 18% 12% 9% 12%

$30,000 - $39,999 29% 29% 26% 23% 21% 24%

$40,000 - $49,999 19% 20% 21% 23% 21% 21%

$50,000 + 19% 24% 32% 41% 48% 42%

Mean Annual Income

$38,921 $41,844 $45,567 $49,133 $51,931 $49,429

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Poverty Level

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Household Poverty Level

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

<175% 6% 5% 4% 1% <1% <1%

175-199% 24% 20% 20% 4% 2% 5%

200-224% 18% 17% 16% 11% 3% 15%

225% - 249% 14% 13% 14% 22% 17% 18%

250% - 299% 16% 17% 18% 31% 36% 28%

300% + 22% 28% 29% 32% 42% 34%

Mean Poverty Level 257% 273% 277% 280% 294% 278%

LIHEAP Eligible 175% 175% 175% 225% 225% 200%

Note 1: As of January 23, 2009, income eligibility is capped at 400% of poverty.Note 2: LIHEAP eligibility is for fiscal years.

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Composition

16

Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

Household Composition

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

<6 Years Old

29% 26% 28% 23% 22% 20% 20%

≤ 18 Years Old

61% 60% 64% 58% 57% 54% 51%

> 60 Years Old

8% 8% 13% 12% 16% 18% 21%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Agencies Focused on Seniors

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2011 Senior Focused Agencies Year Added

Center For Independent Living of South Jersey

Lawrence Township Senior Center-Cedarville

Camden City Independent Living Center-Camden 2009

City of East Orange Division of Senior Services (East Orange Seniors Only) 2009

DAWN Center for Independent Living-Sussex 2009

MOCEANS-Center For Independent Living-Ocean County 2009

Resources For Independent Living, Inc. –Seniors and Disabled Population 2009

Tri County Independent Living Center-Cumberland 2009

MOCEANS-Center for Independent Living-Monmouth County 2010

West Milford Township Older Adult Services 2010

Brick Senior Outreach Services 2011

Cape May County Department of Aging and Disability Services 2011

Agencies were identified as focused on seniors if they have the words “senior” or “independent living” in their name.

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Agencies Focused on Seniors

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2011 RecipientsElderly Agencies Other Agencies All Agencies

# % # % # %Household Member Over 60

No 159 78% 2,366 79% 2,525 79%Yes 45 22% 623 21% 668 21%

Total 204 100% 2,989 100% 3,193 100%% of all recipients 6% 94% 100%

2010 RecipientsElderly Agencies Other Agencies All Agencies

# % # % # %Household Member Over 60

No 489 72% 9,097 83% 9,586 82%Yes 192 28% 1,857 17% 2,049 18%

Total 681 100% 10,954 100% 11,635 100%% of all recipients 6% 94% 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Composition

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Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.

Household Composition

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

Single Parent 14% 13% 27% 24% 21% 18% 17%

Elderly Only 4% 5% 9% 7% 8% 9% 12%


20


2010 Recipients 2011 Recipients

All ≤ 18

Years Old

> 60 Years Old

All

≤ 18 Years Old

> 60 Years Old

<225% 5% 6% 5% 20% 22% 21%

225% - 249%

17% 18% 18% 18% 17% 19%

250% - 299%

36% 35% 34% 28% 27% 27%

300% + 42% 42% 43% 34% 33% 33%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


21


2010 Recipients 2011 Recipients

All Single Parent

Elderly Only

AllSingle Parent

Elderly Only

<225% 5% 6% 6% 20% 27% 22%

225% - 249% 17% 20% 20% 18% 18% 21%

250% - 299% 36% 38% 35% 28% 27% 27%

300% + 42% 36% 40% 34% 28% 30%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Size

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Household Size

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

1 26% 22% 24% 21% 20% 20% 20%

2 30% 30% 28% 29% 28% 28% 29%

3 21% 22% 21% 22% 22% 22% 21%

4 14% 15% 17% 17% 18% 18% 18%

5 + 9% 10% 11% 12% 12% 12% 12%

Mean Size 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Main Heating Fuel

23

Main Heating Fuel

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

Natural Gas 82% 83% 84% 84% 83% 81% 78%

Electric 13% 11% 11% 11% 7% 6% 11%

Oil 5% 5% 4% 4% 10% 12% 10%

Propane <1% <1% <1% <1% 1% 1% 1%

Other <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1% <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

24

Reported Bill Balance

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

< $250 8% 8% 7% 7% 7% 7% 8%

$250 - $499 25% 20% 23% 21% 19% 20% 23%

$500 - $749 23% 22% 24% 21% 19% 20% 23%

$750 - $999 16% 15% 17% 17% 16% 16% 16%

$1,000 + 29% 35% 29% 35% 40% 37% 30%

Mean Balance

$892 $993 $879 $963 $1,070 $1,028 $936

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

25

Grant Type 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients2008

Recipients2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients

Electric Only $563 $566 $557 $635 $723 $687 $737

Gas Only $654 $740 $762 $782 $831 $776 $764

Electric & Gas

$1,108 $1,268 $1,168 $1,298 $1,443 $1,407 $1,438

Electric Heat $831 $823 $904 $1,010 $1,048 $1,088 $1,036

All Grants $892 $993 $879 $963 $1,070 $1,028 $936

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

26

2011 Recipients

Bill Balance

Percent of Federal Poverty Level

< 225% 225-249% 250-299% 300% +

< $500 32% 32% 33% 28%

$500 - $749 22% 22% 22% 26%

$750 -$999 13% 16% 15% 17%

$1,000+ 33% 30% 30% 29%

Mean Balance $933 $953 $910 $949

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Application

27

Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

Collections Actions 2005

Recipients2006

Recipients2007

Recipients 2008

Recipients 2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients

Past Due Balance 8% 3% 17% 20% 26% 30% 38%

Past Due Warning Notice

47% 18% 17% 19% 23% 18% 13%

Shut-Off Date Not Passed

20% 22% 20% 17% 16% 19% 15%

Shut-Off Date Passed 26% 49% 41% 39% 32% 30% 27%

Utility Shut-Off 0% 9% 4% 6% 3% 3% 8%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Reason for Grant Application

28

Reason for Application

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

Temporary Financial Crisis

60% 68% -- -- -- -- --

High Energy Costs

27% 24% 69% 77% 78% 73% 71%

Medical/Health 7% 5% 11% 8% 6% 6% 8%

Unemployment 3% 2% 6% 4% 8% 10% 11%

Reduced Hours/Change in Employment

-- -- 6% 5% 6% 8% 7%

Other 3% 2% 8% 6% 3% 3% 2%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2011 Recipients’ “Other” Reasons for Grant Application

• Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby)

• No social security increase

• College tuition

• Not receiving child support/alimony

• Mortgage or rent

• Over income limit for LIHEAP

• Car repairs

29

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Guidelines - Maximum Grant Amounts

30

Grant Amount

2005 2006-2007 2008-2011

Electric Only $250 $300 $300

Gas Only $250 $700 $700

Electric & Gas $500 $1,000 $1,000

Electric Heat $500 $700 $700

Oil/Propane -- -- $700

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Amounts

31

Grant Amount

2005 Recipients

2006 Recipients

2007 Recipients

2008 Recipients

2009 Recipients

2010 Recipients

2011 Recipients

< $300 45% 14% 11% 11% 10% 9% 11%

$300 <1% 14% 20% 22% 23% 23% 33%

$301 - $699 55% 28% 24% 21% 19% 21% 19%

$700 0% 10% 17% 16% 16% 16% 20%

$701 - $999 0% 12% 10% 9% 7% 7% 5%

$1,000 0% 22% 17% 22% 25% 24% 12%

Mean Grant $373 $603 $588 $596 $612 $612 $522

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Grant Amounts

32

2011 Recipients

Grant Amount

Grant Type

Electric Only

Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat

Oil Propane

< $300 18% 11% 3% 3% 0% 0%

$300 82% 0% <1% 1% 0% 0%

$301 - $699 0% 42% 22% 26% 54% 100%

$700 0% 47% <1% 71% 46% 0%

$701 - $999 0% 0% 22% 0% 0% 0%

$1,000 0% 0% 53% 0% 0% 0%

Mean Grant $284 $563 $833 $643 $661 $691

NJ SHARES Database Analysis % Receiving Max Grant Allowed

33

Grant Type

Electric Only

Gas Only

Electric & Gas

Electric Heat

Oil Propane

2005 89% 89% 76% 67% -- --

2006 67% 40% 40% 48% -- --

2007 75% 50% 43% 58% -- --

2008 78% 47% 53% 62% 16% --

2009 80% 56% 62% 65% 15% --

2010 82% 48% 62% 71% 17% 9%

2011 82% 47% 53% 71% 46% <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean Grant Amount By Utility

34

Utility 2005

Recipients 2006

Recipients 2007

Recipients2008

Recipients2009

Recipients2010

Recipients2011

Recipients

ACE $286 $331 $329 $350 $359 $367 $380

ETG $237 $504 $572 $579 $589 $541 $536

JCP&L $278 $303 $333 $329 $332 $339 $362

NJNG $246 $557 $563 $547 $583 $551 $571

PSE&G $420 $669 $698 $710 $704 $740 $659

RECO $237 $284 $319 $326 $309 $303 $360

SJG $236 $544 $586 $565 $594 $580 $555

PART 2Utility Data Analysis Methodology• Focused on Q1 2011 grant recipients

• Transaction data from utilities

• Files contain payments, charges, account balances

• Analyzed:

– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”

– Grant coverage of pre-grant balances

– Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals

• Used Q1 2010 and Q1 2012 recipients as comparison groups

35

Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions

36

Q1 2011 Recipient Treatment Group

Q1 2010 Recipient Comparison Group

Q1 2012 Recipient Comparison Group

Accounts IncludedAll Q1 2011 grant

recipients

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2010

only

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2012 that did not receive grants in Q1 2011

Analysis Period Starts 1 day following grant1 year + 1 day after

grant1 year + 1 day before

grant

Analysis Period Ends1 year + 1 day after

grant2 years + 1 day after

grant1 day before grant

Analysis Period Span Q1 2011– Q1 2012 Q1 2011– Q1 2012 Q1 2011– Q1 2012

Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions

37

2010

Q1 2011 ANALYSIS PERIOD



GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAYGRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

2011 2012

GRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

1 YEAR

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition

38

• The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account.

• Only payments made by the customer are counted.

INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS

INTAKE DATE

GRANT DATE

“GOOD FAITH” PERIOD

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAttrition Analysis

39

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Number Submitted 5,914 1,883 860

Number Returned 5,369 1,853 848

Eligible for Analysis*

5,043 1,778 811

Percent of Requested Accounts

85% 94% 94%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data, the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data, and there were at least three months of pre-grant utility data.

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment

40

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Utility That Received Grant

97% 97% 94%

Any Utility 98% 99% 96%

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment By Utility

41

Q1 2012 Recipients

UtilityNumber of Customers

Percentage Making “Good Faith” Payment

Utility That Received Grant

Any Utility

ACE 42 98% 98%

ETG 29 86% 97%

JCP&L 67 93% 99%

NJNG 39 90% 97%

PSE&G 597 95% 96%

RECO 2 100% 100%

SJG 35 83% 91%

TOTAL 811 94% 96%

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Amount of Good Faith Payments Made

42

PaymentsQ1 2010

RecipientsQ1 2011

RecipientsQ1 2012

Recipients

$0 2% 2% 4%

$1 - $99 1% 2% 2%

$100 7% 8% 21%

$101 - $250 17% 23% 22%

$251 - $500 26% 30% 27%

$501 + 47% 34% 24%

Mean Payment $615 $541 $399

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Amount of Good Faith Payments MadeBy Utility

43

Q1 2012 Recipients

Payments ACE ETG JCP&L NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers

42 29 67 39 597 2 35 811

$0 0% 7% 3% 5% 4% 0% 11% 4%

$1 - $99 2% 7% 4% 5% 1% 0% 6% 2%

$100 14% 28% 28% 13% 21% 50% 29% 21%

$101 - $250 29% 34% 34% 49% 18% 0% 31% 22%

$251 - $500 26% 21% 19% 18% 30% 0% 14% 27%

$501 + 29% 3% 10% 10% 28% 50% 9% 24%

Mean Payment

$391 $216 $239 $221 $450 $323 $199 $399

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAmount of Good Faith Payments Made By Poverty Level

44

Q1 2012 Recipients

PaymentsFederal Poverty Level

<225% 225-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%

$0 4% 4% 3% 5%

$1 - $99 0% 1% 5% 1%

$100 24% 20% 21% 21%

$101 - $250 23% 19% 22% 23%

$251 - $500 26% 33% 25% 27%

$501 + 24% 24% 24% 24%

Mean Payment $366 $380 $371 $439

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100

45

PaymentsQ1 2010

RecipientsQ1 2011

RecipientsQ1 2012

Recipients

25th Percentile 2 1 1



Mean Number of Payments

2.7 2.4 2.1

Grant Coverage AnalysisAttrition Analysis

46

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients



Eligible for Analysis*

5,160 1,802 832


87% 96% 97%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data and the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data.

Grant Coverage AnalysisGrant Coverage

47

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $1,462 $954 $1,103

Mean Grant $714 $486 $650

Mean Post-Grant Balance $748 $468 $452

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

72% 74% 79%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Utility

48

Q1 2011 Recipients

ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers 133 118 728 194 528 15 86 1,802

Mean Pre-Grant Balance

$1,097 $850 $775 $807 $1,232 $915 $1,028 $954

Mean Grant $395 $545 $368 $578 $618 $358 $546 $486

Mean Post-Grant Balance

$702 $305 $407 $229 $614 $558 $482 $468


46% 72% 74% 81% 80% 54% 78% 74%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Grant Type

49

Q1 2011 Recipients

Electric Only

Gas OnlyElectric &

GasElectric

Heat

Number of Customers 805 488 271 238

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $739 $918 $1,522 $1,113

Mean Grant $284 $572 $798 $639

Mean Post-Grant Balance $455 $346 $724 $474


69% 77% 82% 79%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage By Main Heating Fuel

50

Q1 2011 Recipients

Electric Gas Oil Other

Number of Customers 243 1,330 209 20

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $1,105 $974 $685 $654

Mean Grant $629 $495 $281 $290



79% 74% 71% 56%

Grant Coverage Analysis Grant Coverage Distribution

51

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

Percentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Q1 2010 Recipients 26% 42% 63% 87% 106%

Q1 2011 Recipients 26% 41% 63% 88% 118%

Q1 2012 Recipients 33% 51% 72% 95% 108%

Payment Compliance AnalysisAttrition Analysis

52

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients



Accounts with Usable Data*

4,748 1,802 833

Amount of Data Available for Analysis

3 Months 3,900 1,701 725

6 Months 3,725 1,603 691

9 Months 3,520 1,502 665

12 Months 3,350 1,429 630


64% 76% 73%

* An account was eligible for analysis if the NJ SHARES grant could be located in the utility transactions data and the utility-reported account balances did not conflict with the utility transactions data.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

53

Date Range

Months after

Grants

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

Q2 2011 3 Months 147% 96% 128%

Q3 2011 6 Months 137% 101% 132%

Q4 2011 9 Months 123% 104% 121%

Q1 2012 12 Months 112% 98% 98%

Good payment coverage 2nd year after grant

Payment compliance better than in past years.

Payment compliance declines prior to grant receipt.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

54

Q1 2008 Recipients Q1 2009 Recipients Q1 2010 RecipientsQ1 2011

Recipients

Years After Grant Receipt

Year After Grant Receipt


First Year After Grant

ReceiptFirst Second First Second First Second

3 Months 84% 148% 97% 162% 96% 147% 96%

6 Months 93% 136% 102% 142% 102% 137% 101%

9 Months 89% 125% 95% 118% 96% 123% 104%

12 Months 79% 105% 89% 104% 90% 112% 98%

Accounts Included 2,690 1,218 5,634 4,426 4,211 3,350 1,429

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills PaidSame Accounts

55

Q1 2008 Recipients Q1 2009 RecipientsQ1 2010

RecipientsQ1 2011

Recipients






3 Months 86% 146% 100% 157% 98% 145% 96%

6 Months 94% 134% 104% 139% 101% 136% 101%

9 Months 90% 124% 97% 118% 97% 123% 104%

12 Months 81% 104% 90% 103% 90% 111% 98%


Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid By Utility

56

Q1 2011 Recipients

ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG Total

Number of Customers

111 84 577 159 422 15 61 1,429

3 Months 100% 87% 104% 75% 97% 95% 86% 96%

6 Months 94% 113% 98% 101% 102% 87% 118% 101%

9 Months 103% 103% 101% 102% 106% 95% 118% 104%

12 Months 101% 89% 99% 94% 98% 101% 108% 98%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 90 and 100 Percent of Billed Amount

57

2nd year after grant 1st year after grant Year before grant

Date Range

Month after Grant

Q1 2010 Recipients Q1 2011 Recipients Q1 2012 Recipients

Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%Pay ≥ 100%

Pay ≥ 90%

Q2 2011 3 Months 69% 76% 40% 49% 57% 63%

Q3 2011 6 Months 72% 81% 44% 59% 65% 74%

Q4 2011 9 Months 71% 84% 51% 70% 67% 77%

Q1 2012 12 Months 70% 86% 41% 65% 36% 59%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 100 Percent of Billed Amount

58


Recipients






3 Months 32% 64% 37% 70% 36% 69% 40%

6 Months 36% 69% 43% 71% 42% 72% 44%

9 Months 30% 72% 39% 65% 38% 71% 51%

12 Months 16% 59% 27% 54% 26% 70% 41%


Payment Compliance Analysis Percent That Paid More Than 90 Percent of Billed Amount

59


RecipientsQ1 2011

Recipients






3 Months 40% 70% 45% 75% 44% 76% 49%

6 Months 49% 78% 54% 79% 53% 81% 59%

9 Months 47% 81% 55% 77% 54% 84% 70%

12 Months 32% 76% 48% 73% 47% 86% 65%


Payment Compliance Analysis By Utility

60

Q1 2011 Recipients

Pay≥100% ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG

3 Months 41% 38% 47% 28% 38% 40% 13%

6 Months 36% 55% 41% 48% 44% 40% 52%

9 Months 56% 55% 47% 52% 52% 47% 54%

12 Months 53% 31% 44% 36% 41% 60% 26%

Accounts Included

111 84 577 159 422 15 61

Payment Compliance Analysis By Utility

61

Q1 2011 Recipients

Pay≥90% ACE ETG JCPL NJNG PSE&G RECO SJG

3 Months 48% 43% 57% 34% 47% 53% 25%

6 Months 50% 69% 59% 61% 58% 53% 56%

9 Months 68% 65% 73% 67% 68% 67% 61%

12 Months 70% 55% 72% 57% 64% 80% 43%

Accounts Included

111 84 577 159 422 15 61

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid

62

2nd year after grant

1st year after grant

Year before grant

Percent of Bills Paid

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Q1 2012 Recipients

< 50% 2% 2% 6%

50% - 75% 4% 10% 13%

76% - 90% 9% 22% 23%

91% - 99% 16% 24% 23%

100% + 70% 41% 36%

Mean 112% 98% 98%

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance

63

$350

$450

$550

$650

$750

$850

$950

$1,050

Starting Balance

3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months

Q1 2010 Recipients Q1 2011 Recipients Q1 2012 Recipients

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance By Utility

64

$0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800

Starting Balance

3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months

Q1 2011 Recipients

ACE

ETG

JCPL

NJNG

PSE&G

RECO

SJG

Total

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis

65

22%

27%

7%

44%

Percent of Q1 2011 Recipients

Ending Balance < $100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100Balance Increased by < $100

Balance Increased by ≥ $100

Marginal Success (7%)

Need More Help (44%)

Successful (49%)


66


Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Q1 2008 Recipients

Q1 2009 Recipients

Q1 2010 Recipients

Q1 2011 Recipients

Successful 26% 24% 19% 32% 32% 49%

Marginal Success 7% 6% 5% 6% 6% 7%

Need More Help 67% 70% 76% 61% 62% 44%

TOTAL 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


67

Q1 2009

RecipientsQ1 2010

RecipientsQ1 2011

Recipients

Electric Only

Electric and Gas

Electric Only

Electric and Gas

Electric Only

Electric and Gas

Successful 36% 30% 43% 29% 56% 45%

Marginal Success

7% 5% 8% 5% 8% 5%

Need More Help

56% 65% 49% 66% 36% 51%

Total 100% 100% 100% 100% 100% 100%


68

Q1 2011 Recipients

Grant TypeEnding Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending

Balance ≥ $100

Balance Increased by

<$100


≥ $100TOTAL

Electric Only 27% 29% 8% 36% 100%

Gas Only 18% 22% 9% 51% 100%

Electric & Gas

17% 28% 5% 51% 100%

Electric Heat 21% 26% 3% 50% 100%


69

24%

49%

7%

20%

Percent of Q1 2010 Recipients2nd Year After Grant Receipt

Ending Balance < $100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100Balance Increased by < $100

Balance Increased by ≥ $100

Marginal Success (7%)

Need More Help (20%)

Successful (73%)


70


Recipients






Successful 19% 62% 32% 57% 32% 73% 49%

Marginal Success

5% 7% 6% 9% 6% 7% 7%

Need More Help

76% 31% 61% 34% 62% 20% 44%

Accounts Included

2,690 1,218 5,634 4,426 4,211 3,350 1,429

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis Same Account

71


RecipientsQ1 2011

Recipients






Successful 22% 60% 35% 56% 34% 74% 49%

Marginal Success

5% 8% 6% 9% 6% 6% 7%

Need More Help

73% 32% 59% 35% 60% 20% 44%


Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis By Utility

72

Q1 2011 Recipients

13%

41%9%

37%

ACE

Ending Balance<$100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance≥$100

Balance Increased by<$100

Balance Increased by≥$100

12%

24%

13%

51%

ETG

29%

24%7%

40%

JCPL

21%

23%9%

47%

NJNG

Successful

Marginal Success

Need More Help

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis By Utility

73

Q1 2011 Recipients

19%

29%

6%

46%

PSE&G

Ending Balance<$100Balance Declined, Ending Balance≥$100Balance Increased by<$100Balance Increased by≥$100

20%

53%

7%20%

RECO

18%

17%8%

57%

SJG

Successful

Marginal SuccessNeed More Help


74

Q1 2011 Recipients

Ending Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance

≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100


Percent of Customers 22% 27% 7% 44%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $611 $1,491 $799 $809

Mean Grant Amount $410 $498 $432 $518


Mean Number of Payments* 10 10 9 8

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 110% 117% 97% 80%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


75

Q1 2011 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Charges $2,384 $2,969 $2,204 $2,673

Mean Payments $2,626 $3,413 $2,152 $2,202

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation AnalysisMean Charges

76

Q1 2011 Recipients

Grant TypeEnding Balance

<$100


≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100

Electric Only $2,348 $2,975 $2,657 $2,977

Gas Only $1,636 $1,890 $1,305 $1,768

Electric & Gas $2,690 $3,404 $2,431 $2,999

Electric Heat $3,514 $4,296 $2,997 $3,344

TOTAL $2,384 $2,969 $2,204 $2,673


77

Q1 2011 Recipients

Balance Increased by $100 - $399


Balance Increased by $1,000 +

Number of Customers 371 211 42

Percent of Customers 26% 15% 3%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $748 $817 $1,306

Mean Grant Amount $493 $536 $645

Mean Post-Grant Balance $255 $281 $661

Mean Number of Payments* 9 8 6

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 86% 74% 61%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


78

Q1 2011 Recipients






Mean Charges $2186 $3,010 $5,274

Mean Payments $1,955 $2,396 $3,416

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation AnalysisMean Charges

79

Q1 2011 Recipients

Grant TypeBalance

Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +

Electric Only $2,408 $3,170 $7,266

Gas Only $1,561 $2,162 $2,564

Electric & Gas $2,483 $3,197 $4,659

Electric Heat $2,765 $4,061 $4,070

TOTAL $2,186 $3,010 $5,274


80

Q1 2011 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Starting Balance $180 $980 $362 $273

Mean Ending Balance -$61 $537 $414 $743

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 90% 100% 98% 26%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 65% 100% 0% 0%


81

Q1 2011 Recipients






Mean Starting Balance $245 $253 $618

Mean Ending Balance $477 $868 $2,476

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 40% 6% 2%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 0% 0% 0%


Q1 2011 Recipients



≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Median Annual Income $46,644 $50,490 $45,480 $50,112

< 225% FPL 13% 14% 19% 17%

225% - 249% FPL 20% 21% 16% 17%

250% - 299% FPL 33% 29% 32% 28%

≥ 300% FPL 34% 36% 33% 39%

Percent Single-Parent 10% 12% 21% 14%

Percent Elderly-Only 20% 11% 11% 13%


83

Q1 2011 Recipients






Median Annual Income $49,200 $50,928 $53,442

< 225% FPL 20% 13% 5%

225% - 249% FPL 16% 18% 24%

250% - 299% FPL 26% 30% 33%

≥ 300% FPL 39% 40% 38%

Percent Single-Parent 15% 13% 19%

Percent Elderly-Only 13% 13% 12%


84

Q1 2011 Recipients

Grant TypeBalance

Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +TOTAL

Electric Only 57% 37% 6% 100%

Gas Only 66% 33% 1% 100%

Electric & Gas

56% 30% 14% 100%

Electric Heat 55% 33% 12% 100%

Receipt of Energy AssistancePercent Who Received USF or LIHEAPIn the 12 Months Following Grant Receipt

85

Q1 2011 Recipients

Utility Number of Customers Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 111 8%

ETG 84 4%

JCP&L 577 4%

NJNG 159 8%

PSE&G 422 5%

RECO 15 13%

SJG 61 8%

TOTAL 1,429 5%

Receipt of Energy AssistancePercent Who Received USF or LIHEAP In the “Good Faith” Period

86

Q1 2011 Recipients

Utility Number of Customers Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

ACE 111 1%

ETG 84 0%

JCP&L 577 1%

NJNG 159 1%

PSE&G 422 1%

RECO 15 0%

SJG 61 2%

TOTAL 1,429 1%

TRUE Grant Eligibility

87

Number of NJ

SHARES Grantees

% Meet True Income Eligibility

Guidelines

% True Income Eligible & True Good Faith

Requirements

Individual Utility

Both Utilities

2010 Q1 4,798 >99% 66% 70%

2011 Q1 1,842 96% 61% 71%

2012 Q1 848 96% 44% 50%

Key Findings

• NJ SHARES provides grants to those in temporary need of assistance.– 77% received a grant in only one of the past eight years.

– Recipients made an average of 2.1 payments in the 90 days preceding the grant.

• Changes in types of households served.– Senior households were more likely to receive grants than in previous

years (21%).

– Clients had lower income, due to changes in LIHEAP eligibility.

– Electric only grants much more common and electric and gas grants much less common.

88

Key Findings

• NJ SHARES continues to serve those hit by the recession.– Similar to 2010 recipients, 14% of 2011 recipients reported receipt of

unemployment compensation, compared to 12% in 2009 and about 5% in previous years.

– Similar to 2010 recipients, 11% of 2011 recipients reported unemployment as reason for grant application, compared to 8% in 2009, and 2% to 6% in previous years.

89

Key Findings

• Evidence to increase electric only grant.– 82% of electric only grant recipients received the $300 maximum.

– Electric only grant recipients had a mean balance of $739.

– Electric only grants covered an average of 69% of the balance (77%-82% for the other grant types).

90

Key Findings

• Grant recipients did better in the year following grant receipt than in the past.– 49% of Q1 2011 recipients were successful in their first year, up from 32

percent in past two years and 19% in year before that.

• Many grant recipients may need more than one year to get back on their feet.– Grant recipients improve their payment behavior in the second year after

grant receipt compared to the first. (73% successful)

• The only observable difference between more and less successful recipients is that those with higher bills build up greater balances in the year following grant receipt.– These households may be a good target for subsidized energy efficiency

services.

91

nj shares evaluation of 2011 grants

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