nj shares 2007 evaluation october 25, 2007. evaluation goals characterize nj shares grant recipients...

NJ SHARES 2007 Evaluation

October 25, 2007

Evaluation Goals

• Characterize NJ SHARES grant recipients

• Characterize NJ SHARES grants

• Examine good faith payments

• Analyze post-grant payment compliance

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Evaluation Components

• Part 1 – NJ SHARES database analysis– Characterizes grant recipients– Characterizes grants

• Part 2 – Utility transaction data analysis– “Good Faith” Payment Analysis– Grant Coverage Analysis– Post-Grant Payment Compliance

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Evaluation Components

• Data received from:– Elizabethtown Gas– JCP&L– NJNG– PSE&G– SJG

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NJ SHARES Database Analysis2006 Grant Counts by Utility

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UtilityNumber of

GrantsPercent of All

GrantsGrant Dollars

Percent of Grant Dollars

Atlantic City Electric 822 6% $272,412 3%

Elizabethtown 727 6% $366,773 5%

JCP&L 810 6% $245,546 3%

NJNG 508 4% $283,025 4%

PSE&G 9,369 72% $6,267,774 79%

Rockland 35 <1% $9,947 <1%

SJG 826 6% $448,942 6%

TOTAL 13,097 100% $7,894,419 100%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Q1 Grant Counts by Type

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Type Q1 2005 Q1 2006 Q1 2007

Electric Only 268 15% 683 17% 715 19%

Gas Only 287 16% 756 19% 832 22%

Electric & Gas 1,180 66% 2,416 61% 2,031 55%

Electric Heat 45 3% 113 3% 140 4%

TOTAL 1,780 3,968 3,718

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Counts by County

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CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

CountyNumber Served

Percent of Total

Atlantic 335 2.6% Middlesex 1,241 9.5%

Bergen 643 4.9% Monmouth 466 3.6%

Burlington 520 4.0% Morris 252 1.9%

Camden 906 6.9% Ocean 413 3.2%

Cape May 76 0.6% Passaic 687 5.3%

Cumberland 272 2.0% Salem 67 0.5%

Essex 2,916 22.3% Somerset 376 2.9%

Glouchester 508 3.9% Sussex 55 0.4%

Hudson 1,246 9.5% Union 1,038 7.9%

Hunterdon 14 0.1% Warren 53 0.4%

Mercer 1,013 7.7% TOTAL 13,097 100.0%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Years Received Grants, 2005-2007

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Number of Years Percent of Grant Recipients

1 Year 87%

2 Years 11%

3 Years 2%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Household Members Contributing to Income

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Household Members 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

None <1 % 0%

One 75% 73%

Two 22% 24%

Three or More 3% 3%

Mean Number 1.3 1.3

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Income Sources

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Income Source 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Employment 88% 89%

Pension or Social Security 12% 12%

Unemployment Compensation 6% 5%

Disability 5% 4%

Child Support 4% 4%

Other 3% 3%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Annual Household Income

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Annual Household Income 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

< $10,000 <1% 0%

$10,000 - $19,999 9% 6%

$20,000 - $29,999 31% 28%

$30,000 - $39,999 28% 29%

$40,000 + 31% 38%

Mean Annual Income $35,942 $38,921

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Poverty Level

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Household Poverty Level 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

<175% 6% 6%

175% - 199% 26% 24%

200% - 249% 32% 32%

250% - 299% 17% 16%

300% + 19% 22%

Mean Poverty Level 251% 257%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition

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Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

<6 Years Old 29% 26%

≤ 18 Years Old 61% 60%

> 60 Years Old 8% 8%Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Household Composition

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Household Composition 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Single Parent 14% 13%

Elderly Only 4% 5%Note: “Single Parent” and “Elderly Only” households were identified using the age grouping variables, in the database not the variable “Category”.


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Household Poverty Level

Household Composition

2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

All≤ 18 Years

Old> 60 Years

OldAll

≤ 18 Years Old

> 60 Years Old

<175% 6% 7% 7% 6% 7% 5%

175% - 199% 26% 29% 25% 24% 27% 26%

200% - 249% 32% 33% 31% 32% 33% 32%

250% - 299% 17% 16% 16% 16% 16% 16%

300% + 19% 15% 21% 22% 16% 21%


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Household Poverty Level

Household Composition

2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

AllSingle Parent

Elderly Only

AllSingle Parent

Elderly Only

<175% 6% 12% 8% 6% 11% 5%

175% - 199% 26% 35% 25% 24% 34% 26%

200% - 249% 32% 33% 33% 32% 34% 32%

250% - 299% 17% 11% 11% 16% 13% 16%

300% + 19% 9% 22% 22% 8% 21%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient Household Size

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Household Size 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

1 26% 22%

2 30% 30%

3 21% 22%

4 14% 15%

5 + 9% 10%

Mean Size 2.5 2.7

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Main Heating Fuel

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Main Heating Fuel 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Natural Gas 82% 83%

Electric 13% 11%

Oil 5% 5%

Propane <1% <1%

Other <1% <1%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Reported Bill Balance 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

< $250 8% 8%

$250 - $499 25% 20%

$500 - $749 23% 22%

$750 - $999 16% 15%

$1,000 + 29% 35%

Mean Balance $892 $993

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Bill BalancePercent of Federal Poverty Level

< 175% 175-199% 200-249 % 250-299% 300% +

< $500 32% 29% 28% 27% 25%

$500 - $749 22% 22% 21% 21% 22%

$750 + 46% 49% 50% 52% 52%

Mean Balance $976 $985 $977 $1,003 $1,021

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Mean 2005-2006 Recipient-Reported Bill Balance at Grant Application

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Grant Type 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Electric Only $563 $566

Gas Only $654 $740

Electric & Gas $1,108 $1,268

Electric Heat $831 $823

All Grants $892 $993

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Collections Actions Pending at Grant Application for 2005-2006 Recipients

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Collections Actions 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Shut-Off Date Passed 26% 49%

Shut-Off Date Not Passed 20% 22%

Past Due Warning Notice 47% 18%

Utility Shut-Off 0% 9%

Past Due Balance 8% 3%Note: Percentages may not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Reason for Grant Application

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Reason for Application 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Temporary Financial Crisis 60% 68%

High Energy Costs 27% 24%

Medical/Health 7% 5%

Unemployment 3% 2%

Other 3% 2%

NJ SHARES Database Analysis Detailed 2006 Recipient “Other” Reasons for Grant Application

– Household changes (spouse leaving or dying or a new baby in the home)

– Meter read after months of low, estimated bills– Car repairs– Over income limit for LIHEAP– Mortgage, rent, or child support arrearages or increases– Medical costs– Emergency travel expenses to visit sick family overseas– Home repairs– Change in work hours– Moving costs– High college tuition bills

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NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2005-2006 Grant Amounts

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Grant Amount 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

< $300 45% 14%

$300 <1% 14%

$301 - $699 55% 28%

$700 0% 10%

$700 - $999 0% 12%

$1,000 0% 22%

Mean Grant $373 $603

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Grant Amounts

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Grant AmountGrant Type

Electric Only Gas Only Electric & Gas Electric Heat

< $300 33% 18% 5% 11%

$300 67% <1% <1% 1%

$301 - $699 0% 43% 33% 40%

$700 <1% 40% <1% 48%

$700 - $999 0% <1% 22% <1%

$1,000 0% 0% 40% 0%

Mean Grant $268 $531 $764 $563

NJ SHARES Database Analysis 2006 Mean Grant Amount by Utility

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Utility 2005 Recipients 2006 Recipients

Atlantic City Electric $286 $331

Elizabethtown $237 $504

JCP&L $278 $303

NJNG $246 $557

PSE&G $420 $669

Rockland $237 $284

SJG $236 $544

Utility Data Analysis Methodology

• Focused on Q1 2006 grant recipients

• Transaction data from participating utilities

• Files contain payments, charges, account balances

• Analyzed:

– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”

– Grant coverage of pre-grant balances

– Ratio of payments made to charges incurred at key intervals

• Used Q1 2005 and Q1 2007 recipients as comparison groups

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Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions

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Q1 2006 Recipient Comparison Group



Accounts IncludedAll Q1 2006 grant

recipients

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2005

only

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2007 that did not receive grants in Q1 2006

Analysis Period Starts 1 day following grant1 year + 1 day after

grant1 year + 1 day before

grant

Analysis Period Ends1 year + 1 day after

grant2 years + 1 day after

grant1 day before grant

Analysis Period Span Q1 2006 – Q1 2007 Q1 2006 – Q1 2007 Q1 2006 – Q1 2007

Utility Data Analysis Sample Group Definitions (continued)

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2005

Q1 2006 ANALYSIS PERIOD



GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE + 1 YEAR + 1 DAYGRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

2006 2007

GRANT DATE + 1 DAY

GRANT DATE

1 YEAR

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients

Number Submitted 3,857 2,898

Number Returned 2,889 2,492

Eligible for Analysis* 1,445 2,108

Percent of Requested Accounts 37% 73%* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis “Good Faith” Period Definition

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• The “Good Faith” payment period is defined as 90 days prior to intake through the day before the grant is applied to the account.

• Only payments made by the customer are counted.

INTAKE DATE – 90 DAYS

INTAKE DATE

GRANT DATE

“GOOD FAITH” PERIOD

GRANT DATE – 1 DAY

“Good Faith” Payment AnalysisPercent Making “Good Faith” Payment

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96% 96%

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis

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Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients

$0 2% 2%

$1 - $99 2% 2%

$100 11% 13%

$101 - $250 26% 25%

$251 - $500 34% 30%

$501 + 25% 29%

Mean Payment $394 $424

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2006 Recipients

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PaymentsFederal Poverty Level

< 175% 175-199% 200-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%

$0 6% 4% 2% 2% <1%

$1 - $99 5% 3% 2% 2% <1%

$100 8% 13% 11% 9% 10%

$101 - $250 36% 25% 27% 28% 24%

$251 - $500 27% 38% 33% 34% 34%

$501 + 19% 17% 26% 26% 31%

Mean Payment $320 $353 $399 $408 $428

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Q1 2007 Recipients

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PaymentsFederal Poverty Level

< 175%* 175-199% 200-249% 250-299% ≥ 300%

$0 0% 2% 1% 2% 1%

$1 - $99 0% 2% 2% 2% 2%

$100 0% 15% 13% 13% 10%

$101 - $250 0% 27% 26% 26% 22%

$251 - $500 0% 28% 30% 26% 33%

$501 + 100% 26% 28% 31% 33%

Mean Payment $1,030 $391 $405 $435 $476

*Note: Only two Q1 2007 recipients in the data had a household poverty level of less than 175%.

“Good Faith” Payment Analysis Number of Payments for Those Paying at Least $100

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Payments Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients

25th Percentile 1 1

50th Percentile 2 2

75th Percentile 3 3

Mean Number of Payments 2.4 2.7

Grant Coverage AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Number Submitted 3,857 2,898

Number Returned 2,889 2,492

Eligible for Analysis* 1,834 2,203

Percent of Requested Accounts 48% 79%* An account is eligible for analysis if we were able to find the NJ SHARES grant in the transaction data and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage

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Mean Pre-Grant Balance $892 $1,086

Mean Grant $500 $612

Mean Post-Grant Balance $392 $473

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

67% 59%

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Coverage Distribution

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Percentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Pre-Grant Balance $280 $469 $762 $1,145 $1,662

Grant $233 $274 $449 $700 $991

Post-Grant Balance -$28 $49 $250 $561 $1,027

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

28% 42% 64% 88% 103%

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2007 Grant Coverage Distribution

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Percentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Pre-Grant Balance $354 $573 $921 $1,380 $1,959

Grant $272 $330 $656 $827 $1,000

Post-Grant Balance -$1 $70 $294 $636 $1,159

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

34% 48% 64% 86% 100%

Grant Coverage Analysis Q1 2006 and Q1 2007 Grant Coverage

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Electric Only

Gas Only

Electric & Gas

Electric Heat

Electric Only

Gas Only

Electric & Gas

Electric Heat

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $739 $824 $1,187 $777 $687 $966 $1,319 $982

Mean Grant $261 $496 $766 $514 $271 $555 $777 $558

Mean Post-Grant Balance $478 $328 $421 $263 $417 $411 $542 $424

Mean Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

58% 65% 77% 76% 51% 46% 70% 74%

Payment Compliance AnalysisAttrition Analysis

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Q1 2005 Recipients

Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Number Submitted 1,311 3,857 2,898

Number Returned 729 2,889 2,492

Accounts with Usable Data* 640 2,430 2,209

Amount of Data Available for Analysis

3 Months 426 1,741 1,297

6 Months 410 1,679 1,251

9 Months 389 1,594 1,220

12 Months 372 1,513 1,149

Percent of Requested Accounts 28% 39% 40%* An account has usable data if it appears to have received the NJ SHARES grant and if we were able to duplicate the utility-reported account balances.

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid

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Q1 2005 Recipients Q1 2006 Recipients Q1 2007 Recipients

3 Months 151% 87% 129%

6 Months 137% 94% 128%

9 Months 123% 89% 108%

12 Months 103% 84% 83%

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Percent of Bills Paid, Accounts with 12 Months of Data

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3 Months 148% 87% 130%

6 Months 134% 94% 127%

9 Months 122% 89% 108%

12 Months 103% 84% 83%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent Paying ≥ 100% and ≥ 90%, Accounts with 12 Months of Data

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Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90% Pay ≥ 100% Pay ≥ 90%

3 Months 67% 72% 30% 38% 60% 66%

6 Months 67% 77% 35% 47% 63% 72%

9 Months 71% 85% 29% 46% 56% 67%

12 Months 55% 78% 20% 40% 15% 31%

Payment Compliance Analysis Percent of Bills Paid, Recipients with 12 Months of Data

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Percent of Bills Paid

Q1 2005 Recipients

Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

< 50% 1% 7% 7%

50% - 75% 5% 25% 28%

76% - 90% 16% 28% 35%

91% - 99% 23% 21% 16%

100% + 55% 20% 15%

Mean 103% 84% 83%

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance

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Q1 2005 Recipients

Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Starting Balance $569 $274 $579

3 Months $397 $355 $500

6 Months $343 $341 $413

9 Months $307 $407 $495

12 Months $500 $590 $933

Payment Compliance Analysis Mean Bill Balance,Accounts with 12 Months of Data

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Q1 2005 Recipients

Q1 2006 Recipients

Q1 2007 Recipients

Starting Balance $542 $272 $559

3 Months $392 $357 $476

6 Months $350 $340 $409

9 Months $309 $402 $494

12 Months $500 $590 $933

Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients

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Payment Compliance Analysis Segmentation Analysis of Q1 2006 Grant Recipients (continued)

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Ending Balance <$100

Balance Declined, Ending Balance

≥ $100

Balance Increased by

<$100


≥ $100

Number of Customers 203 188 112 1,010

Percent of Customers 13% 12% 7% 67%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $546 $1,406 $815 $875

Mean Grant Amount $400 $497 $418 $533

Mean Post-Grant Balance $147 $909 $396 $342

Mean Number of Payments* 10 10 10 9

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 104% 113% 96% 73%* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


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Balance Increased by $100 - $399



$1,000 +

Number of Customers 458 435 117

Percent of Customers 30% 29% 8%

Mean Pre-Grant Balance $744 $921 $1,217

Mean Grant Amount $451 $590 $645

Mean Post-Grant Balance $293 $331 $571

Mean Number of Payments* 9 9 7

Mean Percent of Bills Paid 83% 68% 51%

* Note: Only customer payments are counted.


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≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Mean Starting Balance $84 $795 $267 $213

Mean Ending Balance -$14 $515 $315 $756

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 84% 100% 92% 15%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 53% 100% 0% 0%


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$1,000 +



Mean Starting Balance $190 $185 $414

Mean Ending Balance $427 $812 $1,841

Percent Paying ≥ 90% 32% <1% 0%

Percent Paying ≥ 100% 0% 0% 0%




≥ $100


<$100


≥ $100



Median Annual Income $33,924 $37,056 $38,100 $35,004

< 175% FPL 4% 5% 3% 5%

175% – 199% FPL 24% 25% 18% 22%

200% - 249% FPL 32% 40% 36% 33%

250% - 299% FPL 17% 10% 18% 16%

≥ 300% FPL 23% 20% 26% 24%

Percent Single-Parent 10% 12% 9% 13%

Percent Elderly-Only 9% 4% 6% 6%


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$1,000 +



Median Annual Income $34,170 $35,220 $36,312

< 175% FPL 5% 5% 3%

175% – 199% FPL 21% 24% 19%

200% - 249% FPL 34% 31% 38%

250% - 299% FPL 16% 16% 15%

≥ 300% FPL 25% 23% 25%

Percent Single-Parent 13% 13% 10%

Percent Elderly-Only 4% 8% 8%


Electric Only Gas OnlyElectric &

GasElectric Heat

Ending Balance <$100 18% 14% 8% 11%

Balance Declined, Ending Balance ≥ $100

15% 13% 9% 16%

Balance Increased by < $100 11% 6% 5% 8%

Balance Increased by ≥ $100 57% 67% 77% 65%

Total 100% 100.00 100.00 100.00

Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the 12 Months Following Grant

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Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

Elizabethtown 5%

JCP&L 8%

NJNG 7%

PSE&G 10%

SJG 12%

TOTAL 9%

Payment Compliance Analysis Q1 2006 Grant Recipients Receiving USF or LIHEAP in the “Good Faith” Period

59

Utility Percent Receiving USF or LIHEAP

Elizabethtown 0%

JCP&L 1%

NJNG 0%

PSE&G 3%

SJG 4%

TOTAL 2%

nj shares 2007 evaluation october 25, 2007. evaluation goals characterize nj shares grant recipients...

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