nj shares 2006 evaluation october 26, 2006. 2 evaluation goals characterize nj shares grant...

NJ SHARES 2006 Evaluation

October 26, 2006

2

Evaluation Goals

• Characterize NJ SHARES grant recipients

• Characterize NJ SHARES grants

• Examine good faith payments

• Analyze post grant payment compliance

3

Evaluation Data

• NJ SHARES database– 2004 Grants (no demographics)

– 2005 Grants

– Q1 2006 Grants

• Utility transaction data– 2004 Q1 recipients

– 2005 Q1 recipients

– 2006 Q1 recipients

4

Evaluation Data

• Utility Data– Atlantic City Electric

– Elizabethtown Gas

– New Jersey Natural Gas

– PSE&G

– South Jersey Gas

5

2005 Grant Data

Utility#

Grants% of

GrantsGrant $

% of Grant $’s

Atlantic City Electric 361 7% $103,140 5%

JCPL 410 8% $114,040 6%

NJNG 172 3% $42,282 2%

Elizabethtown 322 6% $76,316 4%

PSE&G 3,740 71% $1,576,037 80%

Rockland 13 <1% $3,075 <1%

SJG 262 5% $61,909 3%

TOTAL 5,280 100% $1,976,799 100%

6

2005/2006 Grant Data

Q1 2005 2005 Q1 2006

Electric Only 139 8% 729 15% 339 10%

Gas Only 151 9% 469 10% 415 12%

Electric and Gas 1,332 80% 3,374 70% 2,675 76%

Electric Heat 45 3% 259 5% 111 3%

Total Households 1,667 4,831 3,540

7

2005 Grant DataCounty Number

ServedPercent of

TotalCounty Number

ServedPercent of

Total

Atlantic 160 3.3% Middlesex 482 10.0%

Bergen 364 7.5% Monmouth 158 3.3%

Burlington 239 5.0% Morris 84 1.7%

Camden 300 6.2% Ocean 154 3.2%

Cape May 31 0.6% Passaic 411 8.5%

Cumberland 57 1.2% Salem 23 0.5%

Essex 826 17.1% Somerset 176 3.6%

Glouchester 125 2.6% Sussex 48 1.0%

Hudson 535 11.1% Union 350 7.2%

Hunterdon 9 0.2% Warren 38 0.8%

Mercer 261 5.4% TOTAL 4,831 100.0%

8

2005 Grant Data

Number of Household Members Contributing to Income

None < 1%

One 76%

Two 21%

Three or More 3%

Average Number 1.3

9

2005 Grant Data

Income Sources

Employment 88%

Pension or Social Security 12%

Unemployment Compensation 6%

Disability 5%

Child Support 4%

Other Source 3%

10

2005 Grant Data

Annual Household Income

< $10,000 <1%

$10,000 -$20,000 10%

$20,000 - $30,000 32%

$30,000 - $40,000 27%

> $40,000 30%

Average Annual Income $35,530

11

2005 Grant Data

Household Poverty Level

< 175% 6%

176% - 200% 27%

201% - 250% 32%

251% - 300% 17%

> 300% 19%

12

2005 Grant Data

Household CompositionUnder 6 Years Old 28%

6 – 18 Years Old 43%

18 - 60 Years Old 92%

> 60 Years Old 7%Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

13

2005 Grant Data

Household Composition5 or Younger 28%

18 or Younger 60%

> 60 Years Old 7%Note: A household can be included in more than one category.

14

2005 Grant Data

Household Poverty Level

By Household Composition18 or Younger Over 60

< 175% 7% 7%

176% - 200% 30% 26%

201% - 250% 33% 31%

251% - 300% 16% 16%

> 300% 15% 20%

15

2005 Grant Data

Number in Household1 26%

2 30%

3 21%

4 14%

5+ 9%

Average Size 2.5

16

2005 Grant Data

Main Heating Fuel

Natural Gas 80%

Electric 14%

Oil 5%

Propane <1%

Other <1%

17

2005 Grant Data

Recipient Reported Bill Balance

At Grant Application< $250 4%

$250 -$500 21%

$500 - $750 24%

$750 - $1,000 17%

> $1,000 33%

18

2005 Grant Data

Recipient Reported Bill Balance

At Grant Application

By Percent of FPL<175% 176-200% 201-250% 251-300% >300%

< $250 6% 5% 4% 4% 3%

$250 -$500 26% 21% 23% 19% 18%

$501 - $750 20% 24% 24% 26% 22%

$751 - $1,000 20% 18% 15% 16% 20%

> $1,000 28% 32% 33% 35% 36%

Average $874 $926 $970 $1019 $1051

19

2005 Grant Data

Recipient Reported Bill Balance At Grant Application

By Grant Type

Electric Only $637

Gas Only $725

Electric and Gas $1093

Electric Heat $847

All Grants $976

20

2005 Grant Data

Collection Actions Pending at Grant Application

Shut-Off Date Passed 49%

Shut-Off Date Not Passed 28%

Past Due Warning Notice 21%

Utility Shut-Off 8%Note: Percentages do not sum to 100% because a household with grants for more than one utility may have two different collections actions.

21

2005 Grant Data

Reason for Grant Application

Temporary Financial Crisis 59%

High Energy Costs 28%

Medical/Health 7%

Unemployment 3%

Other 3%

22

2005 Grant Data• Detailed “Other” Reasons for Application:

– Car trouble and repairs

– Estimated meter readings

– College expenses

– Death in the family leading to loss of income-earner and/or high funeral costs

– Unexpected home repairs (ex. roof, hot water heater, pipes)

– Change in employment status

– No longer covered by disability insurance or no more sick leave

– High mortgages, child support, and insurance costs

– Change in living situation (high cost of moving, change in marital status, etc.)

23

2005 Grant Data

Grant Amount

< $250 5%

$250 23%

$250 - $500 15%

$500 56%

Average Total Grant $409

24

2005 Grant Data

Grant Amount, By Type of Grant

Average < $250 $250 $250 - $500 $500

Electric Only $242 11% 89% -- --

Gas Only $242 11% 89% -- --

Electric and Gas $466 3% 1% 20% 76%

Electric Heat $438 6% 9% 18% 67%

25

Utility Data Analysis Methodology• Focused on Q1 2005 Grant Recipients

• Transaction Data from Participating Utilities

• Files Contain Payments, Charges, Account Balances

• Analyzed:– Existence of “Good Faith Payment”

– Ratio of Payments Made to Charges Incurred at Key Intervals

• Used Q1 2004 and Q1 2006 Recipients as Comparison Groups

26

Utility Data AnalysisSample Group Definitions

Q1 2005 Recipient

Treatment Group

Q1 2004 Recipient

Comparison Group

Q1 2006 Recipient

Comparison Group

Accounts Included

All Q1 2005 grant recipients

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2004 only and at no other time between 2004

and Q1 2006

Accounts receiving grants in Q1 2006 only

and at no other time between 2004 and Q1

2006

Analysis Period Starts

Month received grant 1 year after grant 1 year before grant

Analysis Period Ends

1 year after grant 2 years after grant Month before grant

Analysis Period

Q1 2005 – Q1 2006 Q1 2005 – Q1 2006 Q1 2005 – Q1 2006

27

Utility Data Analysis Good Faith Payments

Sample SizeQ1 2005 Q1 2006

# Submitted 1,705 2,818

# Returned* 1,393 2,744

Insufficient Pre Grant Data 449 91

Available for Analysis 944 2,653

% of Total 55% 94%

* Elizabethtown Gas Co. budget billing accounts were not counted.

28


Paid At Least $100 Towards Utility Bill In 90 Days Preceding Grant

Q1 2005 95%

Q1 2006 94%

29


Payments Made in 90 Days Prior to GrantQ1 2005 Q1 2006

< $100 5% 6%

$100 11% 8%

$101 - $150 9% 7%

$151 - $200 10% 9%

$201 - $250 7% 6%

$251 + 59% 64%

30


Payments Made In 90 Days Prior to Grant

By Poverty Level - Q1 2005<175% 176-200% 201-250% 251-300% >300%

< $100 3% 5% 6% 5% 3%

$100 12% 14% 9% 10% 9%

$101 - $150 17% 8% 10% 4% 8%

$151 - $200 14% 10% 10% 10% 10%

$201 - $250 3% 6% 6% 10% 7%

$251 + 51% 57% 59% 61% 63%

31


Payments Made In 90 Days Prior to Grant

By Poverty Level - Q1 2006<175% 176-200% 201-250% 251-300% >300%

< $100 13% 7% 6% 6% 5%

$100 7% 11% 7% 7% 6%

$101 - $150 9% 7% 7% 5% 6%

$151 - $200 11% 9% 12% 7% 6%

$201 - $250 6% 7% 6% 7% 7%

$251 + 56% 59% 62% 67% 70%

32


Number of Payments

For Those Paying at Least $100

MeanPercentile

25 50 75

Q1 2005 2.8 2 2 3

Q1 2006 2.8 2 2 4

33

Utility Data AnalysisPayment Compliance

2005 Q1 Average Grant Coverage Pre Grant Balance $940

Grant $394

Post Grant Balance $546

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 55%

34


2005 Q1 Grant Coverage DistributionPercentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Pre Grant Balance $299 $513 $806 $1224 $1669

Grant $250 $250 $500 $500 $500

Post Grant Balance $2 $148 $388 $782 $1209

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 24% 34% 49% 69% 99%

35


2006 Q1 Average Grant Coverage Pre Grant Balance $1204

Grant $631

Post Grant Balance $565

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered 67%

36


2006 Q1 Grant Coverage DistributionPercentile

10% 25% 50% 75% 90%

Pre Grant Balance $348 $608 $996 $1587 $2288

Grant $250 $356 $643 $967 $1000

Post Grant Balance $0 $116 $363 $819 $1366

Percent of Pre-Grant Balances Covered

34% 44% 59% 80% 100%

37


Q1 2005 Q1 2004 Q1 2006

# Submitted 1,705 1,249 2,818

# Returned 1,393 826 2,744

Amount of Data Available for Analysis

3 Months 1,208 658 1,869

6 Months 1,164 630 1,814

9 Months 1,081 584 1,748

12 Months 956 521 1,670

% of Total 56% 42% 59%* Elizabethtown Gas Co. budget billing accounts were not counted.

38


Percent of Bills Paid

Recipients With Full Year Of Data

Q1 2005 Q1 2004 Q1 2006

Year Following Grant Receipt

2 Years After Grant Receipt

1 Year Before Grant Receipt

< 50% 3% 3% 4%

50% - 75% 13% 9% 21%

76% - 90% 19% 17% 31%

91% - 99% 24% 20% 22%

100%+ 40% 52% 23%

Average 95% 100% 87%

39

Utility Data Analysis: Payment Compliance Results

Average Percent of Bills Paid

3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12 Months

Q1 2005


106% 110% 100% 95%

Q1 2004


114% 117% 106% 100%

Q1 2006


103% 109% 105% 87%

40

Utility Data Analysis: Payment Compliance Results

Average Bill BalanceFollowing

Grant3 Months 6 Months 9 Months 12Months

Q1 2005


$447 $405 $350 $442 $545

Q1 2004


$423 $336 $387 $357 $454

Q1 2006


$388 $387 $313 $338 $671

41


Segmentation AnalysisEnding Balance

< $100

Balance Declined

Ending Balance

> $100

Balance Increased

# of Customers 194 305 430

Annual Income $37,599 $39,837 $35,259

Pre-Grant Balance $693 $1,308 $826

Grant $373 $435 $403

Post-Grant Balance $320 $873 $423

42



< $100

Balance Declined

Ending Balance

> $100

Balance Increased


# of Payments 10.3 10.5 8.7

% of Bills Paid 110% 105% 79%

Mean Ending Balance -$23 $504 $835

43



< $100

Balance Declined

Ending Balance

> $100

Balance Increased


≤175% FPL 3% 5% 5%

176% - 200% FPL 22% 20% 25%

201% - 250% FPL 33% 30% 31%

251% - 300% FPL 16% 22% 21%

>300% FPL 26% 24% 19%

44

Utility Data AnalysisUSF/LIHEAP Receipt

Received USF or LIHEAP in 12 Months Following Grant Receipt

New Jersey Natural Gas 7%

PSE&G 8%

South Jersey Gas 5%

Elizabethtown 2%

Atlantic City Electric 7%

TOTAL 7%

nj shares 2006 evaluation october 26, 2006. 2 evaluation goals characterize nj shares grant...

Documents

post grant balance

poverty level q1

utility bill

key intervalsused q1

days preceding grantq1

insurance costschange

disability insurance

grantq1 2005q1