new instruments in foresight studies (popper, 2011)

New Instruments in Foresight Studies

Dr Rafael Popper

Research FellowUniversity of [email protected]

Innovation DirectorFutures [email protected]

21st Century Foresight

mailto:[email protected]

mailto:[email protected]

Outline

New concepts (as instruments)

New frameworks (as instruments)

New products (as instruments)

New services (as instruments)

New systems (as instruments)

Rafael Popper - HSE, Moscow (13.10.2011)New Instruments in Foresight Studies

New Foresight (F) Concept

Foresight is a systematic, participatory, prospective and policy-oriented process which, with the support of environmental and horizon scanning approaches, is aimed to actively engage key stakeholders into a wide range of activities anticipating, recommending and transforming (ART) technological, economic, environmental, political, social and ethical (TEEPSE) futures.

Key/Emerging & Frontier Issues Environmental Scanning Horizon Scanning

ART Anticipating Recommending Transforming

TEEPSE futures Technological Economic Environmental Political Social Ethical


New Horizon Scanning (HS) Concept

Horizon Scanning (HS) is a structured and continuous activity aimed at monitoring, analysing and positioning (MAP) ‘frontier issues’ that are relevant for policy, research and strategic agendas. The types of issues mapped by HS include new/emerging: trends, policies, practices, stakeholders, services, products, technologies, behaviours, attitudes, ‘surprises’ (wild cards) and ‘seeds of change’ (weak signals).

MAP Monitoring Analysing Positioning

Agendas Policy Research Strategy

NEF Issues New Emerging Frontier


New Weak Signals Concept

Weak Signals are ambiguous events, often referred to as “seeds of change”, providing advance intelligence or “hints” about potentially important futures, e.g. Wild Cards, challenges and opportunities. Weak Signals lie in the eye of the beholder and are often influenced by the mental frameworks and subjective interpretations of individuals with limited information about emerging trends, developments or issues in a particular time and context. Their “weakness” is directly proportional to levels of uncertainty about their interpretations, importance and implications in the short-medium-to-long-term. Weak Signals are unclear observables warning us about the possibility of future “game changing” events.

Influenced by Mental frameworks Subjective interpretations Limited information Time/Context

i3 uncertain issues Interpretation Importance Implications

Pseudo-evidence-based Unclear observables

Creativity-based Game changing events


ass

ess

ment

New Interpretation & Sense-making framework

S = Situation-bounded (time & context)

futurepast

Inte

rpre

tati

on &

Sense

-maki

ng

level of

unce

rtain

ty

emerging / new WIS4

issues

re-emerging

issues

WIS3

discontinuation

issues

WIS2

continuationissues

WIS1

today

WE

WE

WE

WE


New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (1 of 2)

Ten common foresight evaluation criteria Criterion 01: Appropriateness and level of achievement of

objectives

Criterion 02: Performance of the management and funding mechanisms

Criterion 03: Justification of the programme in terms of value for money

Criterion 04: Effectiveness and efficiency of the organisational structure

Criterion 05: Effectiveness and efficiency of the approaches and methods

Criterion 06: Effectiveness and efficiency of implementation and aftercare

Criterion 07: Level of capacities and Foresight culture achieved

Criterion 08: Level of national, sub-national and international presence

Criterion 09: Level of commitment of participants

Criterion 10: Level of novelty and impact of projects


New Fully-Fledged Evaluation Framework (2 of 2)

Five criteria to assess impact on STI systems Criterion 11: Impact on public and private policies and strategies

Criterion 12: Impact on agendas of STI programmes and institutions

Criterion 13: Impact on the consolidation of research groups

Criterion 14: Impact on the consolidation of S&T

Criterion 15: Impact on international projects

Five criteria to assess contributions to a knowledge-based society Criterion 16: New products and services (publications, courses, etc.)

Criterion 17: New policy recommendations and research agendas

Criterion 18: New processes and skills (management, research)

Criterion 19: New paradigms or scientific/technological developments

Criterion 20: New players (e.g. sponsors, collaborators, networks)


S.M

.A.R

.T.E

.R. P

olic

y

Cycle


NEW

Foresight Process ManagementFramework

NEW

Pro

du

cts

&

Serv

ices

NEW

MethodologyFramework

44

Meth

ods C

om

bin

atio

n M

atrix

(M

CM

)


New uses of SNA techniques in Foresight


New Foresight & HS systems

iCommunity

iLibrary iOracle

iDelphi iBank iScaniNews


http://community.iknowfutures.eu/

http://library.iknowfutures.eu/

http://delphi.iknowfutures.eu/

http://bank.iknowfutures.eu/

http://wiwe.iknowfutures.eu/scan/advanced/

http://news.iknowfutures.eu/

http://community.iknowfutures.eu/

Two final remarks

We must transform Concepts & Frameworks…

…into Innovative Practices, Products & Services

We must transform the Systems Rhetoric…

...into Systems Development

thank you


http://community.iknowfutures.eu/pg/profile/popper

new instruments in foresight studies (popper, 2011)

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