maree conway strategic foresight: linking foresight & strategy

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Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

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Page 1: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

Maree Conway

Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

Page 2: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Purpose

An overview of what foresight is about

and

how it relates to strategy development in organisations.

Page 3: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Terminology

Foresight: an often unconscious individual capacity to think about the future.

Strategic Foresight: an organisational foresight capacity. Futures: the broad academic field now developing globally;

interdisciplinary and inclusive in its approach. Futurists: those who work in futures, either as academics,

consultants (outside organisations) and as practitioners within organisations.

Scenario planning: a futures methodology.

Page 4: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Terminology

Foresight is the capacity to think systematically about the future to inform today's decision making. It is a capacity that we need to develop as individuals, as organisations, and as a society.

'Futures' refers both to the research, methods and tools that are available for us to use to develop a foresight capacity, and to the field in which futurists work.

Page 5: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Terminology

When we consciously use foresight in organisational processes to inform strategy, we are practising ‘strategic foresight’.

Page 6: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Developing Strategy

Challenges How to anticipate and interpret change in the external environment. How to leverage that change into ‘winning’ strategies.

Knowledge Questions Do we have some sense of the different ways in which our

environment and our market might evolve over the next five years? Do we know which factors, or drivers of change, are most likely to

dominate how our industry will evolve? Do we know what our strategic and organisational responses would

be if a future were to unfold that was distinctly different from the one anticipated by our current plan?

Adapted from Fahey, 2003

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futures inspired strategy

The External Environment of Universities

Adapted from K. van der Heijden

Education Environment

Social Environment

Suppliers

Clients

Competitors

EducationalOrganisation

Driving Forces

Driving Forces

Factors / Trends Issues / ForcesSocial

Technological

Economic

Ecological

Political

Students

Customers

Members of Wider Society

Page 8: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

The ‘self’ journeys across the chessboard to the mountain, which lies in the medium term future

‘The Star’—Our enduring and guiding social role

‘The Mountain’—What we hope to achieve

‘The Chessboard’— Issues and challenges we are likely to face

‘The Self’—Our values and attributes as a strategic player

The purpose of the organisation• A “future-focused role image” • Not completed or “used up”

The strategic objective: • A compelling, relevant future• BHAG—“Big Hairy Audacious Goal” • A concrete, specific goal • A challenge, but achievable

The strategic environment: • Strategic implementation and tactics• Threats and opportunities• Actions of other strategic actors• Driving forces• Mapped and understood using scenarios

Strategic identity:• Current reality• Self-knowledge• Strengths and weaknesses• Values• Preferences and experience

“Star, mountain, chessboard, self” image © 1999 Hardin Tibbs

The Strategic Landscape

Page 9: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Strategic Foresight & Strategy

Strategy is about the future, not the present.

All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future.

But … future strategy is developed in the present.

How do we integrate knowledge about the past, present and future to make wise strategy today?

Page 10: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Developing University Strategy

Strategic Thinking

Strategy Review and Decision Making

Strategic Planning

Options

PlansPerformance Reporting

FacultiesUniversity Planning

Workshops

Decisions

Foresight

Strategic Directions Statement

Council/Executive

Strategies

IndividualsCouncil/

Executive

Council/Executive Planning Workshops

Results and Feedback

Implementation

Page 11: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Strategy Framework

Strategic Thinking

Strategic Decision Making

Strategic Planning

Action Review

Page 12: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Strategy Framework

Strategic Thinking

Strategic Decision Making

Strategic Planning

Action Review

Foresight

Page 13: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Inputs

Strategy

Outputs

Analysis

Interpretation

“what might we need to do?”

“what will we do?”“how will we do it?”

“what’s really happening?”

“what seems to be happening?”

things happening

Foresight

“what might happen?” Prospection

Copyright © 2000 Joseph Voros

Generic Foresight Model

Page 14: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Analysis

What seems to be happening?

A Foresight Framework

Strategic Environmental Scanning

Information

Interpretation

What’s really happening?

Prospection

What could happen?

Gathering

Categorising

ContextualisingSense Making

Innovation

Page 15: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

A Foresight Framework

Strategic Environmental Scanning

Information

Gathering

Competitor intelligence, competitive intelligence, business intelligence, social intelligence. Focus on past, present and future.

Methods: Delphi analysis, 4Q/11L Scanning Framework

Most scanning work undertaken today focuses on the past and the present.

Page 16: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

A Foresight Framework

Analysis

What seems to be happening?Categorising

Trend analysis, emerging issues analysis, quantitative benchmarks, cross-impact analysis.

Current approaches at this level are largely quantitative in nature.

Page 17: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

A Foresight Framework

InterpretationWhat’s really happening?

And what does it mean for the university?

ContextualisingSense Making

Interpreting the analysis for the university’s context. Making sense of the data.

Most strategy work stops at this step. Decisions are made once interpretation has

occurred.

Page 18: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

A Foresight Framework

Prospection

What could happen?Innovation

Focus on the future. Deriving a broader range of strategy options from the analysis: what options are available to us in the long-term? What might be the impact of those options in the long-term? What will influence those options? What are potential obstacles?

Scenarios, visioning etc.

Page 19: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

A Foresight Framework

Integrates a step to allow decision makers TIME

at the BEGINNING of the strategy process

to consider POTENTIAL future events and POSSIBLE implications for strategy

rather than REACTING to future events which might have already undermined that strategy by the

time those events become apparent.

Page 20: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity

All individuals have the capacity for foresight – we use that capacity every day.

The aim is to move that individual capacity to a shared, organisational capacity.

Page 21: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity

Individual foresight is:

unconscious implicit solitary

Strategic Foresight is:

conscious explicit collective

Page 22: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity

Understand how successful organisations apply foresight to inform their organisational strategy.

eg Shell, GBN, CUB, SKb, DEST, Toyota

Page 23: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Building a Strategic Foresight Capacity

Generates a challenge: strategic foresight takes time to develop: mangers and leaders do not have much time, managers and leaders are rewarded for certainty, not

uncertainty. Need to demonstrate value of taking time out in the

short term to consider long term issues particularly when urgent imperatives in the ‘here and

now’ need to be dealt with.

Page 24: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Institutional Time

Past

Present Future

20051905 2105

Universities have a past, present and future. All three times are interdependent. One time cannot be considered in isolation from the other two.

Page 25: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Institutional Time

Past

Present Future

2004

Strategy Decisions

Strategy decisions now are based primarily on interpreting information about the past and present.

1908 2108

Page 26: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Institutional Time

Past

Present Future

2004

Strategy Decisions

Strategy decisions today can be strengthened by interpreting information about the future.

1908 2108

Page 27: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Institutional Time

Past

Present Future

2004

Strategy Decisions

Strategic perspectives and interpretation need to be applied with the benefit of both hindsight and foresight.

1908 2108

Strategic Hindsight Strategic Foresight

Page 28: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Why strategic foresight?

“The future does not just happen to us; we ourselves create it by what we do and what we fail to do. It is we who are making tomorrow what tomorrow will be.

For that reason, futurists think not so much in terms of predicting the future, as in terms of trying to decide more wisely what we want the future to be.”

Edward CornishPresident, World Future Society

Page 29: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Why Strategic Foresight?

What we don’t know we don’t knowWhat we know we don’t know

What we know

Most of what we need to know to make good decisions today is outside our comprehension: we don’t even know it’s there.

All our knowledge is about the past, but all our decisions are about the future.

What we think we know

Page 30: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

How do you ‘do’ Strategic Foresight?

Step 1 Make a commitment to develop and use explicit futures

processes. Give permission for staff to take time out from the here

and now to think about the future. Encourage the use of a wide range of methods to

support strategic thinking.

Page 31: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

How do you ‘do’ Strategic Foresight?

Step 2 Build a scanning framework – what do we need to know

more about? What do we need to keep an eye on over time?

Value multiple sources of information – quantitative, qualitative, from staff, from experts, hard data, possibilities…

Value information that relates directly to strategy implementation today and information that is a bit more ‘left field’ and seemingly unrelated.

Scan the mainstream and the periphery.

Page 32: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

How do you ‘do’ Strategic Foresight?

Step 3 Systematically and regularly review and interpret

scanning reports using a range of approaches – What does this mean? Is there anything we need to pay attention to now?

Page 33: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Step 4 Have regular strategy events or processes to

collectively consider information that has been gathered over time.

Step 5 Make strategy decisions, and review them regularly. The

world can change overnight.

How do you ‘do’ Strategic Foresight?

Page 34: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Foresight and Strategy

Strategic Foresight is about thinking, not doing.

Thinking helps the doing.

But … only if time is committed to allow people to think as well as do.

Page 35: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Foresight and Strategy

Systematically develop and use

strategic scanning to inform thinking.

Schedule regular ‘thinking’ time.

Use a range of futures methods to structure

output.Make Strategy

Page 36: Maree Conway Strategic Foresight: Linking Foresight & Strategy

futures inspired strategy

Foresight and Strategy

There may be no apparent link between foresight work and day-to-day work.

Assumption that tangible results are the only valid results. Intangible results in terms of changes in thinking are not readily measured.

The benefit of foresight is only apparent in hindsight!