foresight and technology foresight for scg

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eyes on tomorrow...

APEC Center for Technology Foresight

1998 Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)

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APEC Member EconomiesAPEC Official Observers Association of South East Asian Nations (ASEAN) Secretariat Pacific Economic Cooperation Council (PECC) Pacific Islands Forum (PIF)

2008 APEC Secretariat

Mission of APEC CTF

RESEARCH: APEC-wide Foresight Studies

7 Projects finished since 1998, focusing on high impact area such as water, education, nanotechnology and energy

Mostly funded by both NSTDA and APEC

Methodologies include Delphi, Scenarios, and TRM

CONSULTING: for Public and Private Sectors

TRAINING: Seminars and Workshops (2-3 times a year)

Conference on Foresight and Emerging Technologies

Towards Best Practice in Technology Foresight

We are a group of practitioners (e.g. SWOT is given a bad name because mostly it fails in practice

Our strength is management skillWe train people

CDG case is our return customer

Our Customers

Siam Cement Group, Premier Group, CDG Group, Ministry of Public Health, SCI Research and Innovation Co.,Ltd., CAT Telecom Pubic Company Limited, Electricity Generating Authority of Thailand, Department of Agriculture, Institute of Solar Energy Technology Development, Petroleum Institute of Thailand, TRIDI, KNIT, , , TPA, SIRIM, NISTPASS, and many others.

Policy developmentParallell activities:Intelligent benchmarking etc.Future options:Foresight etc.Past experience:Impact analysis,History etc.Current context:Policy analysis,structure and dynamicsModes of Strategic Policy Learning(partly based on Ken Guy, 2006)The role of foresight:Foresight is about creating insights, not information. A tool for policy learning.Strong overlap/synergy with other modes of policy learning.

FuturesStudies

Strategic Planning

Policy DevelopmentForesightThe Foundations of ForesightSource: APEC Center for Technology Foresight

What's the difference?

The Johari Window

KNOWN KNOWNSUNKNOWN KNOWNSKNOWN UNKNOWNSUNKNOWN UNKNOWNSKnowledgemanagementenvironmentscanningtrendsimagination

Strategic planning

ForesightThis chart explains how foresight is different from conventional strategic planning

The generic foresight process framework

inputsanalysisinterpretationprospectionoutputsstrategyForesight

Source: Voros (2003)Strategic intelligence scanning, DelphiEmerging issues/trends analysisSystems thinking, Causal Layered AnalysisScenarios, visioning, backcasts, roadmapsReports, presentations, workshops, multimediaStrategy development & strategic planning: individual, workgroup, organisation, society, etc.

Note possible loops of feedback throughout the process

Global Strategic Trends

Source: Global Strategic Trends Out to 2040, Ministry of Defence UK (2010)

APEC Center for Technology Foresight www.apecforesight.org

100

90

60

30

25

10

5

3

1

Alvin and Heidi Toffler, Revolutionary Wealth (2006)

Alvin and Heidi Toffler Revolutionary Wealth

Toffler (fit) Toffler (intangible economy) 60 100 [1]
[1]

Source: Picture of the Future, Siemens (2005)

Its 2020, and India has been spectacularlysuccessful in improving the quality of its watertreatment systems. The Ganges, Indias sacredriver, has benefited from this progress astwo students from England discover...

what might happen need to understand this

your vision need to create this

Causal Layered Analysis (CLA)

Discourse Analysis: worldview solution often in consciousness transformation

problem

causes

Systemic (social, economic, cultural)

Worldviews, ideologies

Myths-metaphors

Litany: official public description of issue

Social Science Analysis: short-term historical facts uncovered. Solution values with structures

Myth/Metaphor Analysis: solution can rarely be rationally designed

Source: Sohail Inayatullah (1998)

- Sohail Inayatullah

Causal layered analysis is based on the assumption that the way in which one frames a problem changes the policy solution and the actors responsible for creating transformation.

Example of CLA

Litany Bangkok traffic, pollution, waiting time (Solution: hire consultant, build more roads, Actors: contractors, government)

Causes urbanization, rapid development, economic growth (Solution: telecommuting or use mobile phones, Actors: corporations, intl agencies)

Worldview Industrialism, Big City Outlook, Colonialism (Solution: transform development model, deep decentralization, focus on agriculture, Actors: public intellectuals, social movements)

Myth West is best, Bigger is Better (Solution: focus on indigenous metaphors, on pre-modern modes of knowing, Actors: mystics, fringe artists)

Source: UNESCO/World Futures Studies Federation workshop in Thailand (1993)

(consensus)

datainformationknowledgewisdom

Distillation

"Project Delphi" was the name given to a US Air Force-sponsored Rand Corporation study, starting in the early 1950's, concerning the use of expert opinion. The objective of the original study was to "obtain the most reliable consensus of opinion of a group of experts ... by a series of intensive questionnaires interspersed with controlled opinion feedback."

Delphi may be characterized as a method for structuring a group communication process so that the process is effective in allowing a group of individuals, as a whole, to deal with a complex problem. Often, among a panel of geographically dispersed experts.

The name Delphi was never a term with which the founders of the method were particularly happy. It was rather unfortunate that the set of procedures developed at RAND Corporation, and designed to improve methods of forecasting, came to be known as Delphi. The term implies something oracular, something occult, whereas precisely the opposite is involved; it is primarily concerned with making the best you can of a less than perfect fund of information.

In 1969 the number of Delphi studies that had been done could be counted in three digits; today, in 1974, the figure may have already reached four digits.

1. Anonymity 2. (Re) iteration.. 3. ...With controlled feedback

Expert AExpert BForesight Committeemoderator

anonymity

answeranswerfeedbackfeedback

x(Expert Panel)Foresight Committee

Consensus through Delphi

Planning of social services for the elderly - seeking opinions of community- and hospital-based doctors about seriousness and prevalence of health problems

From Delphi Techniques and the Planning of Social Services - The Prevention of Dependency Among the Old (Giovanni Bertin)

Delphi Applications

Within foresight studies, Delphi is usually used to tap the wisdom of a group, in order to: predict when S&T developments will occur

assess policy options

encourage decisions

convergenceconsensus conformity

Example of prediction:

When will the first hydrogen-powered car hit the market in your country?

(Practical Use)

One of the Original Delphi Studies (Report on a Long-Range Forecast by Gordon and Helmer)

Published in 1964

Contained forecasts of scientific and technological breakthroughs through 2000 and beyond

82 panelists who contributed included Isaac Asimov and Arthur Clarke

On Targets

economically useful desalination of sea water

oral contraceptives

advent of ultra light materials

automated language translation

transplanting organs

more reliable weather forecasts

centralized data banks

artificial organs

X Ray lasers

psychotropic drugs

self replicating molecules

synthetic protein

feasibility of control over hereditary defects

controlled thermo nuclear power

biochemical general immunization

limited weather control

world population by 2000 less than 6 billion

manned landing on Mars

and Big Misses

Realization of Past Forecasts of the Japanese Delphi conducted every five years after 1970

In 1996, the Sixth survey assessed the first and second surveys

2541

30

1,070 311

311 208

30 2550

80 2550

2547

2547

Policy Delphi
The same 3 key features apply:
anonymity / iteration / controlled feedback

Example: Government should bear the burden of health care across the population by providing 100% financial support to ensure universal and equitable access to services.Desirabilityassessment

very desirabledesirableundesirable very undesirable

123 4 Feasibilityassessment

definitelypossiblyprobably not definitely not

123 4

Importanceassessment

very importantimportant not very important completely_ _unimportant

123 4

2548 2544

12

2,000 290

290 197

4 1

SMEs IT

SMEs E-commerce

SMEs

RT Delphi

(Ideology) [ (Values)] [] 10

Steering RT-Delphie-delphi RT-Delphi 4 - 6

/

:

(Quality)

(Cost containment)

(Quality)

(Cost containment)

(Quality)

(Cost containment)

Effect of uncertainty on objectivesISO 31000:2009- Perception that something could happen.- Likelihood of something happening.- Consequences if it does happen.RISK

Image from Ralph Dunham (2009), Marsh Risk Consulting 9/11 $147 2009

Economic Risks

Food & Fuel Security

Real-Time Delphi

Roadmappingapproachsupportsintegratedstrategicplanning

Evolution of technology roadmapping1970 1980 1990 2000 2010Strategicplanning

Take up inelectronicssector, defence and aerospaceSemiconductorTechnology Roadmap

Take up in other sectors - companies - consortia - government

Motorola developstechnologyroadmapping approach

Co-evolutionForecasting

PolicyForesight

Futures & Scenario planning

Science fiction

1997Fast-startGeneralisationCustomisationCambridge

Idaho National Engineering and Environmental Laboratory, emi-web.inel.gov/roadmap/factsheet.pdfVISIONPRESENT

A Technology Roadmap Links the future to present, and resources to market/applications

TimeMarketM 1M 2

ProductP 1P 2

P 3

P 4

TechnologyT 1T 3T 4

T 2

R&DprogrammesRD 1RD 2

RD 4

RD 6

RD 3RD 5

Resources

Capital investment / financeStaff / skillsSupply chain

Where dowe wantto go?Where arewe now?How canwe getthere?Source: Centre for Technology Management, University of Cambridge

Foresight Vehicle technology roadmap: architecture

TimeMarket / Industrydrivers

Performance measures and targetsTechnicalGroup areas+5 yearsNowVision+10 years+15 yearsSTEEPI

+20 years

Trends drivers, key issues and uncertainties

Evolution of required and desirable functional performance of road transport systems of the future

Required and desired technological response, including research requirements

The roadmap architecture is shown here, with a 20 year forward time horizon, comprising the following 3 broad layers: Market and industry drivers: the broad social, technological, economic, environmental and political trends and drivers that influence the automotive sector. The STEEPI factors were used to structure this layer.

Performance measures and targets for the road transport system. The STEEPI factors were used to structure this layer, but with the Infrastructure replaced by System, on the basis that the remit of Foresight Vehicle does not include infrastructure, which is the responsibility of the Highways Agency in the UK. However, it is important to consider the road transport network as a system, including its interfaces with other systems, as some performance measures only make sense at the systems level. For example, being able to predict arrival time accurately depends on many different factors and sub-systems.

Technology areas that can support the development of road vehicles, in response to the trends and drivers, and required road transport system performance. The Technology layer divided into five sub-layers, on the basis of existing Thematic Group activity within the Foresight Vehicle consortium: Engine & powertrain; Hybrid, electric & alternatively fuelled vehicles; Advanced software, sensors, electronics & telematics; Advanced structures & materials; and Design & manufacturing processes.

Foresight Vehicle TRM: process

Planning(Oct 01)MarketandindustrytrendsanddriversRoadtransportsystemperformancemeasuresand targetsConsultationEngine and powertrain (E&PT)Hybrid, electric and alternativelyfuelled vehicles (HEV)Advanced software, sensors, electronics and telematics (ASSET)Advanced structuresand materials (FASMAT)Design and manufacturingProcesses (DMaP)SynthesisReporting(Sept 02)Co-ordination, facilitation, data collection, analysis and structuring of information

10 month duration

10 workshops

More than 130 participants

More than 60 organisations

Version 1.0 of the Foresight Vehicle Technology Roadmap was published in 2002, as the final output of a project that involved 10 one-day workshops over a period of 10 months, bringing together a total of more than 130 participants representing more than 60 organisations from across the UK. The process involved the following steps: The first workshop (part of the Planning stage) was similar to the traditional fast-start approach, covering the full scope of the Foresight Vehicle domain, providing an opportunity to test the concepts and techniques that would be deployed over the coming months.

The second workshop focused on the top layer of the roadmap (market and industry trends & drivers). This was supplemented by desk research, incorporating published information (trends, forecasts and legislation).

The third workshop focused on the middle layer of the roadmap (performance measures & targets for the road transport system). This was supplemented by additional desk research, incorporating published information (trends, forecasts and legislation).

This was followed by a consultation workshop, involving a wider set of the Foresight Vehicle consortium, to test and refine the top two layers of the roadmap, prior to exploring technology.

A set of five technology workshops, to identifying key technologies (and their evolution), in response to the trends, drivers, targets and performance measures identified in the previous workshops (as expressed in the top two layers of the roadmap), together with research priorities.

A final workshop focused on synthesising the various components of the roadmap, and validating the emerging report.

The final report was published in September 2002, as Version 1.0 of the roadmap. The roadmap was given a version number to demonstrate that it was still work-in-progress, and to encourage Version 2 to be developed.

20022007201220172022VisionSocial attitudes towards road transport and the environment?New working / living patternsCheap, safe, reliable, cleanconvenient, comfortabletransportfor all2030: population in the UK is forecast to increase by 3.3%, to 61 million 1,39,40,67, after which it will decline to 57 million by 2050 73 2016: 4 million (25%) increase in housing (80% single-person), increasing demand for travel 1,67Continued growth of cities and towns, mainly in South EastFrustration with congestion and public transport continues ?(journey time no longer predictable)Increasing mobile working80-85% of journeys by car 39,40,103Increasing leisure time 39,40Increasing complexity of lives ?Increasing concern about crime, security and safety2000: 3,500 road traffic deaths and 40,000 serious injuries in UK, at an estimated cost of 13.3bn (40,000 deaths and 1.7 million injuries in EU, representing a cost of 2% of GDP) 8,37,39,40Journey times increasing (70% longer by 2016 in peak travel periods) 67Growth in personal mobility (70% of drivers use car for leisure day trips every week or month; 50% expect to be making more by 2020) 42

Vehicles sold increasingly as lifestyle choices ?Increasing female vehicle purchase / ownership (women are more likely to describe their cars as stylish, sporty or fun) 42Shift in social attitudes to speedingDemand to reduce deaths and injuries on roadsTrend towards career downsizing for improved lifestyle ?Younger generation more IT-literateIncreased use of car pools ?2010: 50% increase in rail passenger miles 302010: 10% increase in bus passenger journeys 302012: Bicycle journeys double 312010: Passenger numbers through UK airports increase by 50% 302030: 22- 27% of UK population over retirement age, compared to 19% in 1998; pension costs rise from 4.5-5.5% of GDP 1,25,39,40

2015: 150% increase in international air traffic; 100% increase in domestic, compared to 1995 12031: 57% increase in UK road traffic, compared to 1996 80,103

2007: working at home becoming common (currently more than 66% of European organisations with more than 500 employees already practice teleworking) 28,39,402021: Households in South-east forecast to grow by 19% on 2001 levels 41

Between 8 and 20% of car-owning households experience vehicle-related crime each year, depending on region 411999: UK leads world in vehicle theft (twice global average at 2.5%); cost of vehicle-related crime 6bn 46,47

2016: 25% increase in number of UK households, 80% of growth due to single person households; 1.3% rural land use predicted to change to urban land use 39,40

Legal issues and frameworks ?

More residential traffic calming schemes and pedestrianisation of town centresMany different stakeholder groups, with different needs from transport system

Balance between global, national and local solutions ?UK car-centric culture

Shift from car ownership to car access ?Individual time budget for travel remains constant ?

2010: 20-50% increase in European road passenger and haulage traffic 13,802010: 25% of UK workforce teleworking at least two days per week 572015: 400 million people live in megacities of more than 10 million inhabitants 57Key:Health, safety & security

Mobility & congestion

Lifestyle & attitudes

Demographics

2031: 40% increase in bus / coach vehicle miles, compared to 1996 1

2022: 70% increase in journey times in many UK cities 1996 80Increasing proportion of women in paid employment (9.9 million in 1984 to 12.2 million in 1999) 73

75% of all journeysare under 5 milesand 45% are less than 2 miles 31Nearly one third of UK households do not have a car (13 million people) 31More than half of drivers exceed speed limits on motorways, dual carriageways and residential roads 66People and jobs have moved out of the city and town centres 103

Example detailed roadmap content (1 of 28): Social trends & drivers"Rich picture"

"Landscape"

A lot of information was gathered during the the Foresight Vehicle technology roadmapping project, and developing this to a level of quality and format that was suitable for publication was a challenge. The raw data collected in the workshops was tidied up, to ensure that each item of information was coherent, and where possible linked to a published source (e.g. forecast or legislation). The positioning of information was improved, in terms of timing, and also sub-themes. This diagram shows the final output from the first workshop (market and industry trends & drivers), for the Social theme. Sub-themes are shown using colour. The information includes a vision statement, an assessment of the current position, a range of different forecasts, which represent the uncertainties associated with the future (for example, when oil demand might outstrip supply), together with some speculation and key questions. These rich picture views represent more of a landscape than a roadmap, in that clear routes to the future are not clear. This is necessary because the context within which industry, academia and government must innovate and act is complex, and there are many different stakeholders involved with many different aspirations and priorities. The set of rich picture diagrams (28 in all) represent the lowest level of information in the roadmap (the finest level of granularity), and are included in the Appendices of the Roadmap as a resource.

Example summary roadmap content:Social performance measures & targets

Society

Vehicle adaptability

Urban people transport

Effective selling and customer support2005: 70% user satisfaction with all transport modes (measure of convenience)2010: 80% user satisfaction with all transport modes2005: Road traffic noise reduced by 3dBA from 1998 levels 2010: Road traffic noise reduced by 4dBA2020: 85% user satisfaction with all transport modes

2020: Road traffic noise reduced by 6dBA;Homologated noise reduction of 4dBA and 8dBA for light and heavy vehicles, respectively

Aim for equitable mobility (same price for same journey for all groups in society)2010: Vehicle security (resistance to attack) 5- Door locks: 5 minutes; Secure storage area in vehicle: 5 minutes- Alarm systems: 5 minutes; Immobilisers: 20 minutes; Window glass: 2 minutes

2002 2007 2012 2017 2022

Beacons

A small part of the middle layer of the roadmap is shown here - the social aspects of the performance measures and targets for the road transport system.

LIQUID FUELS (conventional oilbitumen and heavy oil)Electricity AndHeat200520102030BiofuelsGTLCGGAS FUELSElectricity and Heat from renewable and gas fuelsOILBIOMASSNGHydrogenStationaryTransportation2020LNGRenewable and AlternateCoalGasificationCoal bed methaneGas Hydrates

First-cut roadmap In groups of two, generate 2-3 post-it notes for each broad layer (5 minutes)

Consider all layers & timeframes of roadmap

history, current plans, events, external actions, future possibilities, issues, vision

Round table, each group place a post-it on chart, and share with group

(limit discussion to points of clarification) 2 rounds

Generate as many additional post-it notes as possible and

place on roadmap (parallel activity) - fill white space

Identify and discuss key strategic issues

(arrow post-it notes)

First-cut roadmap

Participatory

Quick

Exploratory

Creative

Active

Capture, structure and share knowledge

- know-why - know-what - know-how - know-when - know-who - know-where

canvas

story

plans, forecasts, issues, links, challenges, questions, speculation

First-cut roadmap (landscape)

Process funnel (e.g. strategy, product development)Requirements fluidConcepts fuzzyMany unknownsMany optionsMany assumptionsFew constraintsScenariosRequirements clear, stableConcepts clear, stableFewer unknowns, risks understoodFewer options, greater constraints

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Time, effort, iterationDivergent processConvergent process

Stage gates

Subcarrier function1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991

YearTuningPush buttonPush button - SynthesizersTouch pad - SynthesizersVoice actuatedSelectivityCeramic resonatorsSAWsDigital signal processorsStereoPagingDataMapsIC technologyLinear5u CMOS3u CMOS1u CMOSDisplayLEDsLiquid crystalFluorescenceVehicular LANSingle wireGlass fibreDigital modulation500 kHz bandwidthPRODUCTSRECEIVER 1RECEIVER 2RECEIVER 3NEXT GENERATIONFUTURE GENERATIONStereoPlus: Scan SeekPlus: Personal pagingPlus: Stock market Road information Remote amplifiers Remote controlsA NEW SERVICE Super Hi Fi Local maps

(plausible) (expected) (preferred)

(uncertainties)

(scenario)

Technology Promotion Association (Thailand-Japan)Established in 1973 by a group of alumni from Japan

Trained over 350,000 persons in industrial technology

Over 100,000 persons in languages

Over 1,000 persons in enterprise diagnosis

Published over 830 titles and sold

over 4.5 million copiesServices over 2,000 companies

a year

Three ScenariosTPA Corp.Concentrate on profit making activities, RBM, CEO, less synergyValue of Non-Profit Organization (NPO)From association to foundation, new dimension for learning, synergy and teamwork, Prime Ministers Price in International Cooperation for NPONew SynergyCompetition from universities, synergy spear-headed by consultancy, practical solution provider, expansion of service to provinces, closer relationship with China

Two Policy IssuesCan TPA survive if Japan cuts off its financial support?

Should TPA become a private company since some of its operations are making profit?

Changes in Three YearsLibrary@Company: TPA library management software in 100 companies

E-commerce: book selling and training management

HRM Package with e-learning: implemented

Marketing programme: expand customer base, survey corporate image

http://km.tpa.or.th: for internal knowledge sharing

BELIEF as corporate identity

SurprisesThailand-Japan Institute of Technology: with an investment of US$ 10 million. The Institute took in the first batch of bachelor and master students in 2007

E-learning: did not take off

DiscussionsWhy TPA has been successful in implementing the outcomes of foresight?Its leaders recognised the time for change

Strong commitment in the foresight workshops

BSC pointed out needs to enhance partnerships, improve marketing, and utilise IT for productivity

TPA staff does not wait to get on with the reforms


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Germany 2020

DBR trend map showing growth-related MacroTrends

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SIGASasin Institute for Global Affairs

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SIGASasin Institute for Global Affairs