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New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019

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Page 1: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

New Horizons for Australia Gas:

A contractor's perspective

Brett Howard

Wednesday, 13 March 2019

Page 2: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

2

DisclaimerForward-looking statements

We would like to caution you with respect to any “forward-looking statements” made in this presentation as defined in Section 27A of

the United States Securities Act of 1933, as amended, and Section 21E of the United States Securities Exchange Act of 1934, as

amended. The words such as "believe,” “expect,” “anticipate,” “plan,” “intend,” “foresee,” “should,” “would,” “could,” “may,” “estimate,”

“outlook” and similar expressions are intended to identify forward-looking statements, which are generally not historical in nature.

Such forward-looking statements involve significant risks, uncertainties and assumptions that could cause actual results to differ

materially from our historical experience and our present expectations or projections, including the following known material factors:

risks related to review of our accounting for foreign currency effects and any resulting financial restatements, pro forma corrections,

filing delay, regulatory non-compliance or litigation; the risk that additional information may arise during our review of our accounting for

foreign currency effects that would require us to make additional adjustments or identify additional material weaknesses; competitive

factors in our industry; risks related to our information technology infrastructure and intellectual property; risks related to our business

operations and products; risks related to third parties with whom we do business; our ability to hire and retain key personnel; risks

related to legislation or governmental regulations affecting us; international, national or local economic, social or political conditions;

risks associated with being a public listed company; conditions in the credit markets; risks associated with litigation or investigations;

risks associated with accounting estimates, currency fluctuations and foreign exchange controls; risks related to integration; tax-related

risks; and such other risk factors as set forth in our filings with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission.

We caution you not to place undue reliance on any forward-looking statements, which speak only as of the date hereof. We undertake

no obligation to publicly update or revise any of our forward-looking statements after the date they are made, whether as a result of new

information, future events or otherwise, except to the extent required by law.

Page 3: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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SUBSEA

ONSHORE/OFFSHORE

SURFACE

▪ Products and systems used in deepwater exploration and production

of crude oil and natural gas

▪ Systems used to control the flow of crude oil and natural gas from the

reservoir to a host processing facility

▪ Integrated design, engineering, manufacturing and installation

services for infrastructure and subsea pipe systems

▪ Onshore facilities related to the production, treatment and

transportation of crude oil and natural gas, as well as transformation

of petrochemicals such as ethylene, polymers and fertilizers

▪ Combines engineering, procurement, construction and project

management within the entire range of fixed and floating offshore

crude oil and natural gas facilities

▪ Products and systems used in offshore exploration and

production of crude oil and natural gas

▪ Wellhead systems and high pressure valves and pumps

used in stimulation activities for oilfield service companies

▪ Full range of drilling, completion and production wellhead

systems

Broadest portfolio of solutions for the oil & gas industry

Page 4: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

4

In the beginning

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Page 5: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Offshore soon became an emerging industry

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Subsea completions

Shallow Water

1960sFire Safe Valves Under Platform

1968

Page 6: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Early subsea technology explored many options

1979

Petrobras Enchova

Diver Assist Tree

1979

Shell Expro Cormorant

Underwater Manifold Center

1975

Petrobras Garoupa

One-atmosphere Tree

1979

Flexservice 1

First Flexible Reelbarge

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Page 7: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Further development was slowed by a cycle turn in the 1980s

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Statoil Gullfaks

Norway 1986

Statoil Heidrun

Norway 1985Buchan Alpha

UK 1974

Source: Bloomberg LLP

Oil price Jun 1983 – Sep 1986 (Brent, USD/bbl)

Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep Dec Mar Jun Sep

10

15

20

25

30

32.25

198619851984198308/01/83

Page 8: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Back on track, subsea goes mainstream

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Shell Mensa Manifold

Gulf of Mexico 1997

Statoil HOST System

North Sea 1995

0

100

200

300

400

19

60

19

62

19

64

19

66

19

68

19

70

19

72

19

74

19

76

19

78

19

80

19

82

19

84

19

86

19

88

19

90

19

92

19

94

19

96

19

98

20

00

20

02

20

04

20

06

20

08

20

10

20

12

Subsea well completions

Source: Wood Mackenzie

Page 9: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Technical development continues apace

Subsea Processing

Pazflor gas/liquid separator

Riserless Light Well Intervention HP/HT 15K Subsea Tree

Shell Princess

Enhanced Vertical Deepwater Tree

Deep Water

Self-Standing

and Catenary

Risers

Heated Flowlines

Integrated Production

Bundle

Page 10: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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With innovation came highly complex, customised solutions

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

20

40

60

80

100

120

2003 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 SP

S C

ost In

cre

ase (

%)

Bre

nt, U

SD

/bbl

Brent, USD/bbl SPS Cost Increase since 2003 (%)

Source: Wood Mackenzie, Equinor

10%

15%

20%

25%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013RO

CE

(3 y

ear

roll)

Diminishing operator returns (ROCE)

Average

Source: Bloomberg LLP; average ROCE (return on capital employed)

Includes APC, BP, CVX, COP, XOM, RDS, EQNR, TOT

Subsea production equipment cost vs Brent

40% decline in ROCE

Page 11: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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It was time to think differently…

Page 12: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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2.0™

2.0™Compact tree

2.0™ Compact manifold

Lean, simple, and standardised solutions

Page 13: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Integrated approach redefining subsea project economics

Traditional approach

Subsea 2.0™ an enabler to iEPCI™

Page 14: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Integration to deliver value

(1) Genesis Oil & Gas Consultants TechnipFMC

Maximised

reliability

and uptime

Increased

aftermarket

capabilities

Improved

performance

over the life of

field

Project ExecutionLife-of-Field

and Maintenance

Joint SPS+SURF R&D

for improved technology

application and

combination

Shortened time to first

oil and offshore

installation through

better planning

Reduced project

interfaces and

contingencies

Strengthen leverage

on procurement

Unique asset

and

technological

capabilities

Best possible

line-up to

undertake

client

challenges

Rationalised subsea

architecture

and design

Optimised technology

applications

Improved field

performance

Conceptual Design

& FEED (1)

Engineering Procurement Equipment

supplyConstruction Installation

iFEED™ is an enabler iEPCI™ is a differentiator iLoF™ is a growth engine

Page 15: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Subsea 2.0™

iEPCI™6 monthschedulereduction

Break-even price

<$30/bblShell Kaikias

Making subsea short-cycle with Subsea 2.0™ + iEPCI™

Page 16: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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And what’s beyond?

Page 17: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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So, how does this fit in the market today?

Page 18: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Offshore remains critical to the future…

60

70

80

90

100

110

2016 2025

Current sources of production Conventional and other

Deepwater Shale

Deepwater Opportunity

~8.5

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

2015 Decline Incremental 2025E

Source: Rystad Energy Supply Study; October 2016 Source: Rystad Energy Supply Study, TechnipFMC; October 2016

MMb/d MMb/d

~36 million barrels / day of incremental production

required by 2025e……with a large portion to come

from deepwater

Page 19: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Outlook for increased demand; global LNG market re-energised after 3-year lull

Growth in LNG

Onshore/Offshore: Delivering projects from concept to start-up

Page 20: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Australian LNG

Page 21: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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(1) All projects have reserves of 50 mmboe or above. Source: Wood Mackenzie, July 2018.

(2) Source: Shell interpretation of IHS market, Wood Mackenzie, FGE, BNEF and Poten & Partners Q4 2017 data.

(3) North America includes United States and Canada. Source: Rystad Energy.

(4) Mtpa = Million metric tons per annum.

Subsea LNG

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

# of FIDs Oil Price ($/b Brent)

Offshore Final Investment Decisions(1)

> Growth in Final Investment Decisions (FIDs)

for offshore projects; subsea recovering

> Project FIDs (reserves > 50mm barrels)

returned to levels last seen above $100 oil

> Market rebalancing due to strengthening

demand; market to tighten as early as 2020

> Timely sanctioning of liquefaction/regasification

projects needed to meet medium-term demand

Emerging LNG supply-demand gap(2)

Unconventional

> Reduced completions activity likely proves

transitory

> Growth in drilled but uncompleted wells

(DUCs) continues

North America onshore capex(3)

0

50

100

150

200

250

Capex (In $ billions)

Mtpa(4)

Outlook supportive of our key growth markets

Page 22: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking

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Summary

➢Australia is in a unique position in the global gas market

➢Market has inflected but cannot support a return to the old ways

➢Sustainable future requires

➢Early engagement to identify and deliver value

➢Standardised components configured to order

➢Fully vertically integrated execution

➢Focus on total cost of ownership

Page 23: New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective · New Horizons for Australia Gas: A contractor's perspective Brett Howard Wednesday, 13 March 2019. 2 Disclaimer Forward-looking