national oil companies performance and [email protected] to deep off-shore giant fields...
TRANSCRIPT
National Oil CompaniesPerformance and Strategy
Program on Energy and Sustainable DevelopmentStanford UniversityApril 19-20, 2007
Geological Opportunity, Investment RiskBrazilian Experience
Professor Adilson de Oliveira
From On-Shore to Off-Shore
1954: Petrobras (on-shore disappointment)1974: First off-shore discovery (Garoupa)Economic context
80% of domesticv consumption importedNo market risk (monopoly of Petrobras) Oil price escalationNew technologies available (North Sea)
Investment: US$ 200 MM (1973) → US$ 2000 MM (1981)
Off-shore production: 392 thousand b/d (1985)
TO DEEP OFF-SHORE
Giant fields (300m to 2100m): Marlim / AlbacoraHigher complexity, higher risk; higherpremium
Petrobras decided to take the risk (!)Challenges
GeologyTechnologyFinancing
Geological Challenge
Development of geological capacityModels available centred on carbonateformationsNew models for understanding turbiditeformationsModeling of the Brazilian plataform
Geological StrategyTraining (1300 geologists/10000 engineers)Learning by doing
Technological Strategy
Incremental innovation (until 1984)1960/1980: acquisition and assimilation of technologies1980/1990: adaptations and absorption of design1990/2000: joint R&D; knowledge production2000: joint R&D; technology exchange; specialized knowledge production
Radical innovationProcap 1000Procap 2000CENPES plataform design : 30% cost reduction
1992: Distinghished Achievement Award (OTC)
TECHNOLOGIES
Wet christmas tree (200m)Flexible risersRobotics (over 300m)New anchors (plastics)New technologies for liquid flowHorizontal holeDrilling mudResistance of drillling equipmentConversion of shipsAutomation of plataforsms
Financial StrategyEarly production systems (Sedco-Hamilton)
Drilling equipment removedReplaced by small processing plant
Antecipate cash flow
Opposition inside Petrobras (GECAM)Special Group for for EnchovaFrom 1977 to 1984: 17 EPS
Exploratory Strategic Move
Leaving the shallow Tertiary reservoirs, as a major exploration target, with heavy oilprospects
Going deep to Cretaceous sandstone andAlbian carbonate reservoirs,
Later going deeper into the pre-salt reservoirprospectsNew Oil and Gas emerging provinces
Recent Exploration Results
Discoveries in the last 4 years
8 billion boe
40% heavy oil25% light oil35% gas (16 Tcf)
E&P Companies in Brazil
58 companies in Brazil, being 27 Petrobras partners
ENI,Exxon,
Chevron,Total, Statoil,
Hydro, Petrobras,Shell, RepsolYPF,
Ecopetrol
Amerada Hess, AnadarkoBG, Devon, El PAso, Encana
Hocol, Newfield, Maersk, ONGC,Petrogal, Queiroz Galvão,
Koch, Inpex, SK,Partex
Alcom, Avante, Aurizônia, BrazAlta, Brownstone,C. Foster, Codemig, Cowan, Delp,
Construtora Pioneira, Dover, Egesa, ERG,Logos, Norse, Orteng, Panergy, PetroRecôncavo,
Phoenix, Quantra, RAL, Oil M&S, Rich Minerals, Sinalmig, Severo &Vilares, Silver Marlin, Starfish, Synergy, TDC, Tarmar, Vitória
Ambiental, W. Washington
Majors and NOCs
Independents
SmallCompanies
■ Petrobras Partners in Jan/2007
CONCLUSION
In 30 years Petrobras moved from the periphery to the major leagueStrategy
Explore geological opportunityCreate in-house technological capabilityCooperation with IOC and suppliersInnovation management customer oriented (!)Financial freedom
Incentives International pricesTaxationRisk mitigation
