nanotechnology foresight in the uk

Foresight and Indicators for Nanotechnology and Nanoindustry Foresight and Indicators for Nanotechnology and Nanoindustry – Moscow - – Moscow - December 2008Foresight and Indicators for Nanotechnology and Nanoindustry Foresight and Indicators for Nanotechnology and Nanoindustry – Moscow - – Moscow - December 2008

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Ian MilesManchester Institute of Innovation Research

[email protected] December 2008

Nanotechnology Foresight in the UK

NANOTECHNOLOGY INTERNATIONAL FORUM 4-5 December 2008


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Outline

• Nanotechnology in the UK Foresight Programme

• Nanotechnology Strategy – a Success Scenario Workshop

• Nano Now – roadmapping and integration


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UK Foresight Programme I

• Three Cycles – 1994-2000, 2000-2002, 2002-present

• First cycle: 1994-2000, no nanotechnology Panel, little mention of the term (none in Delphi study, Steering Group report)

• Much mention of advanced materials and (very) small-scale engineering, of developments in electronics/IT and biotechnology – esp. sensors


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Focusing on Nano

….Special Report at outset of 2nd cycle: Opportunities for Industry in the Application of Nanotechnology


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A Transformed Website

TF

CPCP sectoral thematic, Many Task Forces

The Second Cycle 2000-2002


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UK Foresight Programme II• Second cycle

Construction: “Biomimetics… will provide new materials, including some with biological self-repairing properties. Continuing miniaturisation of computing, communications and artificial intelligence devices, in particular enabled through nanotechnology, will provide ‘intelligent’ materials and ‘smart’ coatings. Nanotechnology will also enable sensors to be ‘embedded’ into buildings to remotely monitor building performance.”

Energy and Natural Resources: Consultation survey - “the majority … put forward areas in which the UK was well Advanced… biosciences; pharmaceuticals…. Nanotechnology…”

Finance: one mini-scenario involved anentrepreneur with nanoelectronic product

2000-2


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UK Foresight Programme II• Second cycle

Health: “high throughput screening for drug discovery …. Nano-bioreactors have been developed for diagnostics allowing thousands of assay wells to be incorporated into centimetre scale platforms... We recommend the establishment of a Health Engineering Consortium (the NHS, Research Councils, industry and other relevant interests ….)…given the remit of developing… a national strategy for health engineering…, including the identification of new interdisciplinary opportunities for scientists, engineers and doctors.”

Crime: Detection and intelligenceNew crimes (drug production)

Defence/Aerospace: one of 6 key technology areas

Much mention in passing; but also

more detailed examination

2000-2


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UK Foresight Programme II• Second cycle “Nanotechnology has been described

as the driver of the next industrial revolution….” (one page only discussion, on last page of 27pp text)

(brief discussion of strengths)

“Recommendations

A programme to inform and enthuse industry about the opportunities, which will arise from nanotechnology, should be started.

The government should identify a nanotechnology strategy that matches the UK’s scientific and technological strength, and provide opportunities for the chemical industry.”

2000-2


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UK Foresight Programme II• Second cycle ITEC

Nanoscience and nanotechnology forms one of three Basic Technologies

“Nanoscience and nanotechnology are important both in the continuing miniaturisation of semiconductor devices, and for the more speculative commercial applications of the technologies.

Much attention, but the detailed Task Force analysis draws heavily on SIA roadmap. Own work – mainly workshop and literature-based.

2000-2


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2nd Cycle: Materials Panel• Many mentions of nanotechnology• Five areas “…needing specific and proactive attention for the

future well being of UK industry which rely on materials for competitive advantage within a global and sustainable environment. (no. 5)… The need to establish world class groups and networks capable of exploiting the potential of nanotechnology in specific areas.”

• Nanotechnology- the new industrial revolution? “…continued support of government and academic funding in the broad themes of nanofabrication, nanometrology, functional nanotechnology, nano-mechanical devices and machines, molecular nanotechnology, particles, clusters and catalysis, nanostructured materials, and “extreme” nano-technology…. three areas are deserving of special consideration: …. Nano-fabrication Molecular nanotechnology at the biological/ medical/ functional materials interface “Extreme” nanotechnology…Centres of expertise need to be established which will cater for and nurture research…. drive the production of trained personnel …major awareness campaign aimed at children … Nanotechnology is an exciting area; and will inspire a future generation of scientists and engineers.”And much more: importance recognised, specific themes, no roadmap

Specific work on packaging, etc.

2000-2


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2nd Cycle: Materials Panel Nano Taskforce• Identified 8 main areas of interest• Nanofabrication top down making things with dimensions less

than 100nm - lithographic techniques beyond what is possible by optical means.

• Nanometrology techniques for precise measurement of such structures and other nanoscale entities.

• Functional nanotechnology - nanostructures to produce improved optical, electronic or magnetic properties.

• Nanomechanical devices and machines even smaller micromachines and microactuators.

• Molecular nanotechnology molecular sensing and molecular• recognition.• Particles, clusters and catalysis nanoscale products and

processes.• Nanostructured materials (grain and composite size less than

100nm) - potential for strength, more wear & corrosion resistance.

• “Extreme” nanotechnology bottom up atomic and molecular manipulation and assembly. “most speculative but promises the larger long-term gains”.

Again, emphasis on young people’s attitudes

2000-2


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Much earlier work still available here

http://www.foresight.gov.uk

Third Cycle of UK Foresight

2002 – onwards


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UK Foresight Programme III• Third cycle: different Foresight model – focus on specific

topic areas (technology opportunity or social need where technology applicable)

• Flood and Coastal Defence, 2004

• Cognitive Systems, 2003

• Exploiting the Electromagnetic Spectrum, 2004

• Cyber Trust and Crime Prevention, 2004

• Brain Science, Addiction and Drugs, 2005

• Intelligent Infrastructure Systems, 2006

• The Detection and Identification of Infectious Diseases, 2006

• Tackling Obesity: Future Choices, 2007

• Sustainable Energy Management and the Built Environment, 2008

• Mental Capital and Wellbeing, 2008 Land Use Futures, ****

Nanotechnology is almost always mentioned, but

often just in passing – or as

an option but not necessity

Nanotechnology “normalised”?


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• Horizon Scanning• 18 of 146 topics (set published Nov. 2006)* refer to nanotechnology)

• Central to two:– Nanotechnologies

transform Computing, Materials Science and Medicine

– Nanotechnology - the small revolution

Keywords, description, implications, early

indicators, drivers & inhibitors; precedents

*38 of 250 in 2008 – trend??Nanotechnology “normalised” – or enormous?

UK Foresight Programme III


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Beyond the Foresight Programme

• Scenario study in 2001, resulting in the “Taylor Report” 2002

• Taylor = Director-General of Research Councils (and formerly head of Hewlett-Packard Research Labs UK)

• Influential voice in public science; involved UoM, NPL, IoN.

• Following this - £90m MNT programme


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Actions and responsible

parties

Success Scenario Workshop- 2001, Nanotechnology (for

DGRC)Aspirational SUCCESS SCENARIO workshop

Indicators of realisation and

progress

Credible, optimisticExpert consensus if possible

Informed by benchmarking and other inputs

“Stretch target”; Sharing visions, improving understanding; Better

indicators of progress; Action points

Specification of feasible +

desirable future

Background inputs (inc framework

scenarios, SWOT, etc)


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Focus on 6 Application Areas for Nanotechnology

InformaticsInformatics Drug Delivery Systems

Drug Delivery Systems

Tissue Engineering,

medical implants &

devices

Tissue Engineering,

medical implants &

devices

Novel Materials

Novel Materials

Sensors and actuators

Sensors and actuators

Instrumentation, tooling and metrology

Instrumentation, tooling and metrology

NN


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For each area, UK bench-marked against other

countries, and a basic

vision of future

produced

Basic Roadmaps – e.g. Informatics


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Mixture of Plenaries and 6 working groups

Starting from benchmarking studies and “snapshots” for the 6 application areas, the stages of discussion were:

• Where does the UK stand?• What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like?• What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to -

Change?• How could we get to Success? What will success look like? • What actions are required, from whom, to enable us to get

there?• How will we know we are on track? (indicators)• What do we need to do to make it happen?


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Mixture of Plenaries and 6 working groups

• Starting from benchmarking studies and “snapshots” for the 6 application areas:

• Where does the UK stand?• What does a SUCCESS SCENARIO look like?• What are the Drivers and Shapers of, - and Barriers to -

Change?• How could we get to Success? What will success look like? • What actions are required, from whom, to enable us to get

there?• How will we know we are on track? (indicators)• What do we need to do to make it happen?

All of these points for discussion

were “seeded” with suggested

classifications, lists of examples,

etc. Information collected via flip

charts, powerpoints, even

cameras - but no use of

groupware (this was 2001!)


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Making it happenMaking it happen

Steps which need to be taken to maximise the likelihood of success scenarios

Research People Facilities Finance and taxation Access to technology [and international

collaboration] Regulatory issues Other issues]


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Some Summary ResultsIn the area of:

• novel materials: UK industry will play a significant role in comrnercialising nanotechnology-based consumer products, for example in cosmetics, self-cleaning surfaces, informatics, novel decorative effects, and functional coatings. …Novel materials applications will succeed in attracting substantial new public and industrial R&D funding, and strategic investment will be based on sound long-term analyses (roadmaps, etc.). At least 7 commercialisable new products with clear paths to the market, and 3 demonstrator projects for applications, would be in place. A significant market share in the product and process innovations from the application of novel materials to manufacturing processes should be readily detectable.

• In the area of tissue engineering and medical devices: The UK share of the international market could be at around $1 bn per annum. … at least 1500 new jobs would have been created around nanotechnology-based tissue engineering and medical devices, with start-ups running in the order of 5 to 10 per year.


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Recommendations• Nanotechnology strategy and the

Nanotechnology Applications Steering Board

• National Nanotechnology Fabrication Centres

• Roadmapping • Awareness, access portals and networking• Training and recruitment• International: promotion, inwards

knowledge transfer, leverage


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Impact - a new policy


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Impact muted?

In our view, the Taylor Report provided a comprehensive, ambitious, affordable and achievable strategy for the development of UK nanotechnology capability: it provided a … blueprint which the DTI could have taken forward and implemented in full. …We question the need for the industrial survey commissioned by the DTI three months after the Taylor Report had been published: it did not add significantly to the body of knowledge … necessary to inform the framework of future funding. The DTI could have responded to the Taylor Report without this unnecessary delay. … In our view, whilst the Taylor Report has not been completely rejected, there is no doubt that its central thrust has been lost: it is not being implemented in the manner recommended. Instead of the immediate focus being on the establishment of at least two nanofabrication facilities, the available money is being disseminated widely between supporting applied research and the further development of a number of existing small micro and nanotechnology facilities.

Select Committee on Science and Technology Fifth Report

2004

DTI strategy was to form a Micro and Nano Technology Network, despite

explicit proposal to develop UK strategy

& facilities for nanotechnology


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Nano Now

• Of course, controversy continues, and vision of nano-prospects (and nano-activity elsewhere) could not disappear

• Much activity, much roadmapping, much public discussion, much attention from NGOs

• Much activity in the nano-field• Institute of Nanotechnology, Nanotechnology

Industry Association, Nanotechnology KTN…• Involvement in European roadmapping activities


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NIA Model

Complexity

NIA Forecast of Emerging

NanotechnologiesPaul Reip & Steffi Friedrichs

June 2007


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NIA Model

Complexity

Autonomous

Motive

Sensing

Physical

Chemical


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NIA Model “futurised”


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NIA Model Populated


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Royal Society reportReviewed Science and applications: Nanomaterials: Nanometrology; Electronics, optoelectronics, and ICT; Bio-nanotechnology and nanomedicine; Nanomanufacturing and industrial application of nanotechnologies incl. Fabrication techniques; Bottom-up manufacturing; Top-down manufacturing; Precision Engineering; The chemicals industry; The ICT industry; Resource management and environmental issuesHealth and Safety, Social and Ethical IssuesAnd stressed Public Consultation and Dialogue and Regulatory Responses

Extensive government response


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Final Thoughts

• Current Foresight programme - pervasive – is the whole area simply normalised (seen as incremental development) or seen as too big to take as a project?

• Nanotechnology futures addressed in priority-setting, e.g. Research Councils, Technology Strategy Board, industry roadmapping, work with EU, etc.

• Specific classes and approaches to nano products and processes may be handled most effectively – but does this mean missing convergence and synergy?

• BINC approach and beyond…• Watch this space!


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End of Presentationthanks to our hosts!

nanotechnology foresight in the uk

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