uk foresight - a view from 2005
DESCRIPTION
A review of the origins and evolution of the UK (Technology) Foresight ProgrammeTRANSCRIPT
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
(Towards) A Brief History of UK Foresight
Ian Miles
PREST/IoIR
University of Manchester
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
This talk
• Is work in progress (though a paper is in press, in IJFIP)
• Examines the Foresight Programme and Foresight more widely
• Argues that UK Foresight was initially highly influenced by the innovation studies community – but suggests that this influence is now much more patchy.
• Comes from someone who has been involved in some of the activities, and cannot claim a completely uninterested perspective.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Where is UK Foresight?http://www.foresight.gov.uk
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
A site with Rich Content – on specific technology areas
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
But this is “focused” Foresight marks a major change
• Where is broadbrush “foundational” Technology Foresight - overall scanning and strategy advice on technological challenges and opportunities?
• Where is the effort to map and monitor Foresight in general?
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
The Official History
• Three cycles of UK Foresight: 1994-99, 2000-02, 2002-
• Much documentation on website, but some material now regarded as obsolete.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
UK Foresight Programme – prehistory
• Prehistory of concerns about national innovation system , attention to Foresight in other NIS (esp. Japan: Irvine/Martin)
• SPRU had played key role in developing innovation studies, with early analysis of NIS flowing from earlier work on the “British disease” – work that had moved from the margins to a more centre stage position (good topic for research)
• SPRU had also been the main scholarly centre for futures work, with its STAFF programme and successor studies. Loose coupling of analyses, esp through Freeman work on technological revolutions and institutional structures
• Had seeded both approaches widely – thus establishing base in innovation studies community worldwide for longer-range thinking:
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
UK Foresight Programme – “First Cycle”
• Several 1990s efforts to determine critical technologies (involving SPRU, PREST and consultancies): this approach has been pursued in US and France, in particular.
• 1993 White Paper: improve connection between science base & wealth creation + quality of life. Foresight a major instrument.
• Specific goals: to inform priorities (planning) & promote “Foresight culture” of forward and longer term thinking “beyond the business plan” (futures, networking)
• Already quite a mature, well-conceptualised intervention. And organisationaly well located:
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Organisational FlowPrime
Minister
Cabinet Office
Office of Science and Technology
Ben Martin on Steering Committee: undertook review of other Programmes;
PREST undertook much methodological work (delphi, other surveys, panel training…)
This links to innovation studies
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Initial stages of First Cycle
Pre-foresightSteering
committeeCo-nomination
15 panels prepared
Pre-foresightSteering
committeeCo-nomination
15 panels prepared
Main stage•Key issues & trends
•Scenarios•Wide consultation
•Delphi survey•Regional workshops
•Panel reports•Steering Committee
report - priorities
Main stage•Key issues & trends
•Scenarios•Wide consultation
•Delphi survey•Regional workshops
•Panel reports•Steering Committee
report - priorities
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Original Foresight Panels (94-98)
ANRIE Agriculture, Horticulture & Forestry *(split)
Defence & Aerospace Financial Services Health & Life Sciences Leisure & Learning Manufacturing, Production
& Business Processes
Marine **(new)
Natural Resources & Environment *(split)
Chemicals Construction Energy Food & Drink Materials Retail & Distribution Transport
Mix of technology
and “demand”
Missing sectors?
Analysis of Cross-
sectoral links (e.g.
food chain)
IT, Electronics & Communications * (merged)
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Defining constituencies of expertise and stakeholders
Generating lists of Delphi topics Undertaking consultations Preparing own views as to R&D (and
other) priorities in interim and final reports
Forwarding their proposals in follow-up work.
Structure placed Panels at the core
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
One Priority: Priorities!Key
priority areas
Key priority
areas
Inter-mediate
areas
Inter-mediate
areas
Emerging areas
Emerging areas
Feasibility Feasibility
Att
ract
iven
ess
Att
ract
iven
ess
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Foresight implementation
• Dissemination by Panels through media, workshops, professional & trade associations– 600 events, 130,000 reports distributed– 1998 Delphi on website - high usage
• Foresight Challenge funding initiative to support key priorities – e.g. Institute of Applied Catalysis. LINK programme.
• 54% of Research Council spend aligned with priorities of which £300 million new initiatives
• Other government departments acting on own areas, and Panels champion this: Transport, Construction, Defence, etc; and better co-ordination between departments
• Foresight was element in gaining major increase for science funding in Government’s Comprehensive Spending Review
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation ResearchRetrospect on First Cycle Successes
– huge level of voluntary participation– widespread support, political commitment sustained– broad priorities accepted– networking seen as beneficial– “Foresight” more widely accepted as tool– taken as model by many other countries
Problems– insufficient time - esp for USE of Delphi - some frustration– insufficient technical support, communication problems, lack of
coordination and resource pooling between panels, poor comms between panel members and non-members
– tendency to “technical fix” solutions - even though many social constraints & issues identified
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation ResearchA Transformed Website
TF
CPCP sectoral thematic, Many Task Forces
The Second Cycle
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
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Second Cycle Structure
Sou
rce:
OS
T, B
lue
prin
t fo
r th
e N
ext
R
ou
nd o
f Fo
resi
ght,
SECTORAL
PANELS
THEMATIC
PANELSKNOWLEDGE
POOL
ASSOCIATE PROGRAMMES
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Information Discussion GroupsInformation Discussion Groups
USERS and CONTRIBUTORSPanels, Government Departments
Associate Programmes, Other Participants
USERS and CONTRIBUTORSPanels, Government Departments
Associate Programmes, Other Participants
Search for ideas Find others withand analysis, etc. shared goals
Add strategies, Put your ideasvisions, trends, etc. to the test
The Knowledge Pool
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Other key elements
• Thematic panels cutting across issues and bringing in social dimension– Ageing population– Crime prevention– Manufacturing 2020
• All panels to consider Education, Skills and Training
and Sustainable Development • Task forces to stimulate further inter-panel working• Associate programmes to harness enthusiasm of other
communities with foresight interest• Senior executives chairing several panels to reach
beyond science & technology community
•No Delphi
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Retrospect on Second Cycle
• Cut short - internal high level review initiated• Some reports publicly criticised in Parliament by
responsible Minister – variable quality• Problems with Knowledge Pool - low interactivity• Short Steering Group report – pamphlet without
priorities exercise • Impact and profile less than First Cycle Website streamlined, much documentation
removed (key reports remain, but not always easy to locate)
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation ResearchSecond Cycle Problems
• Still awaiting rigorous evaluation • New methodological framework, plus staff and consultant
changes, reduced any capitalisation or learning from 1st cycle
• Institutionalised panels - reduced access to vision, less individual commitment of members and chairs, and increased lobbying content
• Lack of core methodology - reduced rigour of approach, scope for integration
• “Ownership” problems for OST of the wide range of social/political issues - disarticulated from OST concerns?
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Research Councils
Innov-ationGroup
Direct
or G
ener
al o
f
Resea
rch
Counc
ils
2001 Organisational Flow
Cabinet Office
Performance & Innovation
Unit
Prime Minister
Office of Science and Technology
Department of Trade and Industry
Chief Scientific Advisor
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Third Cycle• Aim “to increase UK exploitation of science”, inform but not direct
public and private research funders• LINK not driven by Foresight priorities, though remains “a useful
and responsive mechanism”• Move from broad set of standing panels to rolling programme of
projects...• Brainstorming of “visionaries” to develop initial shortlist of projects• Projects organised in different ways, but based on initial seminar,
literature and horizon scanning, in-house and external support, use of futures techniques to avoid extrapolation, limited (at best) role of panels.
• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action, networks that are willing and able to take recommendations forward
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Third Cycle Foresight
• OST Foresight Programme restructured in 2002• No longer covers the whole range of technologies, nor tries to
encompass all Foresight• Aim “to increase UK exploitation of science”, inform but not direct
public and private research funders• LINK cannot be driven by Foresight priorities, though should be seen as
useful and responsive mechanism• Replacing broad set of standing panels with fluid rolling programme of
projects, organised in different ways...• Brainstorming of “visionaries” to develop initial shortlist of projects• Projects based on initial seminar, literature and horizon scanning, in-
house and external support with use of futures techniques to avoid extrapolation
• Delivery target: overview, vision of what success will look like, recommendations for action, networks keen to take recommendations forward
• Now focusing on five areas:
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
A Technology Strategyto increase innovation
“3.22. … bringing business, Government, and the research and knowledge transfer communities together to identify the most important emerging, potentially disruptive technologies on the basis of their potential economic, social and environmental benefits for the UK. … to develop collaborative, application-based solutions to technology development, drawing on the resources and instruments available to all parties. Business has told us that a strategic approach in this area is of high importance …
3.23. ,,, developing a Technology Strategy that will identify technology priorities. The Strategy will be used to stimulate an industry based technology programme. ,,, to influence a much wider set of Government policies as well as the behaviour of business and other participants in the innovation system (e.g. RDAs and DAs).
3.24. The Technology Strategy will be business-led, market focussed and need a high level of stakeholder input. …
…3.28. Of the countries we have reviewed, several operate some form of
strategic selection of technologies and research themes. The models used by the Finnish technology agency ,,, and by Japan appear closest to our proposal…. “
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Technology Strategy/ Technology Foresight
3.25. A high level Technology Strategy Board will ensure the technology priorities are market focussed and will advise on the broad allocation of resources to them. The Board will also act as a high level forum for interaction between business, Government and other stakeholders. Innovation works best when there is a clear market and business pull and we will focus the Technology Strategy on this basis. The main criteria for prioritising the Technology Strategy themes will be:
• the degree to which technologies will have an impact on sectors that are a major UK strength (eg pharmaceuticals and aerospace) or have high growth potential;
• the degree to which a particular technology will have an impact on a number of sectors;• strength of the UK SET base relative to other countries;• potential economic, social, quality of life and environmental benefits and scope for cross-
government collaboration (e.g. healthcare, energy);• potential for spill-over benefits and whether there is an underpinning market failure; and• the degree to which there is scope for effective action by Government or others.3.26. The … Technology Strategy … has the potential to become a key information source,
including technology road maps, for all participants in the innovation system, strengthening co-ordination and improving effectiveness at all levels….
Influencing policy by, e.g. signalling technologies where action might be needed to strengthen the supply of technical skills; … where particular attention to regulatory issues may be justified … generating a higher level of awareness of IP issues … informing negotiation of EU Framework programmes; and … the development of standards and measurement …
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Broader Foresight
• As well as a move to identify critical technologies and resource these…
• … there are continuing efforts, particularly from the Strategy Unit, to stimulate and interrelate long-term strategy-related activities across government.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Strategy Unit
http://www.strategy.gov.uk/output/page696.asp
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Stimulus for Strategy
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Centrifugal Forces
• Thus there are moves to provide a general strategic overview of technologies – remains to see how the key technologies approach will interconnect with OST Foresight
• There are efforts to articulate strategy across government…
• .. But a great deal is underway in various parts of national and regional government across the UK, and its hard to gain an overview
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Horizon-Scanning and Roadmapping
• “Horizon-Scanning” has become widely used in many government departments instead of “Foresight”
• Other terms have also made their mark – “roadmapping”, “long-term strategy”.
• Differences in nuance and detail of approach – but common to see use of workshops plus desk research. (Eg Bioscience and NonFood Crops)
• Much action around climate change, food, agriculture, rural economy, etc. Reflects recent crises. Thus DEFRA is a major actor, and probably ahead of other parts of national government.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation ResearchDEFRA – Horizon scanning
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
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Horizon-Scanning for Emergencies
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
Other parts of government are also active – e.g. a call for research:
http://www.dft.gov.uk/stellent/groups/dft_science/documents/page/dft_science_025626.hcsp
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research A Space Roadmap
Foremost developer of
Leading-Edge Solutions
Leading Users of Space
Services
Using Space for
World Class
Science
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
http://www.bnsc.gov.uk/index.cfm?fast=spacestrategy
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
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Many government-funded projects outside of government agencies
Research Councils involved in various ways
Research Councils involved in various ways
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
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http://www.uea.ac.uk/~e384/
landscapes.htm
Foresight and related work is underway at many sites,
with CLIMATE CHANGE one
of the main foci
Landscape Futures Visualised
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation ResearchAnd, finally, much regional work…
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Critical Technologies
At: http://www.dti.gov.uk/innovationreport/
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
OST's Centre of Excellence in Horizon Scanning:
OST's Centre of Excellence in Horizon Scanning - conceived as part of the government's 10-year investment framework for science and innovation - has now begun its operations.. Current activities include pilot projects with a number of client departments, to scope the nature of demand and the practicalities of delivery. The fundamental purpose of Horizon Scanning is to scan systematically for potential future threats, trends, and opportunities. Investigation of 'science' issues will encompass all analytical evidence streams, including economics and social sciences. This comprehensive approach will also inform and provide context for future public engagement priorities.
ActivitiesThe Centre expects to have three main strands of activity • A regular cross-departmental strategic horizon scan to underpin departmental horizon scanning and to inform cross-departmental priorities• Project work with departments• Provision of tools and support to spread good practice in departmental horizon scanning
The Centre will comprise a small team, with significant outsourcing. CSAC (Committee of Chief Scientific Advisors) has agreed to form a subgroup to oversee the development of the programme and to ensure that it adds value to departments‘ own work. This will be chaired by Howard Dalton (Defra).
Horizon Scanning Timings• March 2005: Best practice offer fully launched (defined and tested)• December 2005: findings of the first strategic horizon scanning exercise available. There will also be various key engagement events and smaller deliverables from the start of next financial year.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research Conclusions
• Foresight of all kinds is underway in many locations in the UK: there are some coordination efforts, but the field is vast and very diverse (are there quality control problems? Pet methods?)
• There are now many academics, consultants, and others active in the area.
• Technology Foresight is underway in several government departments, in addition to the main Foresight programme. Again, there is some fragmentation, and the effect of a key technology focus coming from Technology Strategy (for innovation) is unpredictable.
• But if Foresight is to do with bringing together opportunities and needs, then we can expect further interesting developments.
UK Foresight History - Feb 2005
Institute of Innovation Research
End of Presentation