mr summit 2015: predicting the future for the fca

MR SUMMIT:PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA

JAMES HOPKINS, CRITICAL RESEARCHEMMA ROBERTS, FINANCIAL CONDUCT AUTHORITY

MR SUMMIT: PREDICTING THE FUTURE FOR THE FCA

CONSUMER CREDITRegulated by the Office of Fair Trading until 2014

An estimated 80,000 had consumer credit licences

FCA took over on 01 April 2014

Who are these firms?

Sizing - how many of them are there?

Comms - what do they already know about the

change?


A HIGHLY DIVERSE POPULATIONMoney lenders Banks Credit unions Pawnbrokers

Non financial firms Furniture shops Golf clubs Dentists Car dealersBrokers Financial advisers


RESOURCE PLANNING

How many firms could the FCA expect to be regulating from 01 April 2014?


WELL BRIEFED INTERVIEWERS

Provided feedback on questions and flow

Vital for establishing underlying views

Inconsistencies identified

Call-backs to establish real intentions

WHAT WAS OUR APPROACH

GOOD QUESTIONNAIRE DESIGN

Designed to cater for the diversity of firms

Included sufficient background to educate

Enough days timetabled to allow iterations

THOROUGH PILOT FEEDBACK

Ensured the two objectives did not conflict

Follow up interviews to check understanding

Best question sequence and flow assessed

On the face of it, a very typical telephone research methodology …


ESTIMATING A NEW POPULATIONThree additional steps, first to establish a new population, then to ensure we had valid

dataINVESTIGATIVE

CALLS

Calls to firms with a valid phone number

Results combined with desk research

“Probability of trading” calculated

Overall trading population of 62,000

DESK RESEARCH

Paid-for company checking services

Were the uncontactable firms trading or not

VALIDITY CHECKING

Used OFT licence retention data

Profiled for interviewed and refused

Recalibration for non-response errors


Initial forecast Final forecast Actual outcome40000

42000

44000

46000

48000

50000

52000

51000

49700 49400

A FINAL ADJUSTMENT

Very 95%

Quite 90%

Not very 0%

Not at all 0%

Adjustment algorithm

+0.6%


CLEAR MARKETING OBJECTIVES

Knowing we had c.50,000 firms to target drove many of the budget

decisions

We knew now the scale of the marketing required:

Communicate effectively with 50,000 firms

Reach all corners of a very diverse audience

Raise awareness of registering with the new regulator

Explain the severe consequence of inaction

Encourage a spread of response over time


NEW STRATEGY FOR THE FCAMoving away from literature heavy marketing Engaging with trade bodies and trade press Radio advertising National press Direct mail campaign Regular reminder emails

Behavioural nudges alongside traditional brand building

Discount period to encourage early applications


SOME GROUPS NOT ENGAGED

Some unaware of the consequences of missing the deadline

Others were leaving it to the last minute

Assumption that the transfer was only aimed at financial services firms

FINE TUNING THE CAMPAIGNFurther research showed the campaign was working well, but needed fine-tuning …

SECOND WAVE CONDUCTED

Urgency of language increased

Trade press engaged to target specific sectors such as estate agents, builders, motor trader

FCA WAS MAIN INFO SOURCE

Further research showed the FCA was the primary source of information

By the end of the campaign, awareness of the need to act had risen from 21% to 98%

21%

98%

mr summit 2015: predicting the future for the fca

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