Mobilizing international solidarity, accelerating action and embarking on new pathways to realize the 2030 Agenda

and the SAMOA Pathway: Small Island Developing States

Alicia Bárcena

Executive Secretary

Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

Five transmission channels of COVID-19 crisis will affect the regional economy

A drop in trade with key trading partners

A fall in commodity

prices

Disruption of global

value chains

Less demand for tourism services

Decline in remittances

Impact of COVID-19 On Caribbean TourismSector

COVID-19 Impact on Tourism

Visitor arrivals will fall by between 57% and 75% in 2020, leading to losses of tourism expenditure between US$22B and US$28B

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BH

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ATG VC

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AIA

AB

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JAM

BLZ

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HTI

CU

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CYM TT

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SUR

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Y

Visitor expenditure losses(Per cent of exports of goods and services1)

Base scenario Optimistic scenario Pesimistic scenario

-25

-20

-15

-10

-5

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VG

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VIR

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SUR

Direct tourism impact on GDP growth, 2020(Percentage)

Base scenario Optimistic scenario Pesimistic scenario

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

Climate Change Vulnerability

During 1990 - 2019, there were over 400 disasters in the Caribbean, 90.4% from hydro-climatic phenomena

In 2019 Hurricane Dorian causedUS$3.4b in the Bahamas; 1% of GDP.

2020 is forecast to be highly activewith an estimated 16 named stormsanticipated.

This Photo by Unknown Author is licensed under CC BY-SASIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

High public debt and low growth

-5.5

-8.0

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

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wth

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e (p

erce

nta

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Pu

blic

deb

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er c

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of

GD

P)

GDP growth and public debt

Debt ratio Growth rate

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100

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BR

B

BLZ

JA

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VC

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SU

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BH

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Total Public Debt, 2019(Per cent of GDP)

External Domestic Total public debt 2018

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

High debt service limits fiscal space for COVID response

102.7

74.9

27.5

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120

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2010

2011

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2018

Total debt service(Per cent of government revenue)

Range Caribbean average

26.4

32.2

42.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

Montserrat

Guyana

Dominica

Trinidad and Tobago

Belize

Saint Kitts and Nevis

Anguilla

Suriname

Saint Vincent and the Grenadines

Grenada

Bahamas

Saint Lucia

Antigua and Barbuda

Barbados

Jamaica

Total debt service, 2009-2018 average (Per cent of government revenue)

Notes: 1. This chart illustrates the wide range of debt burdens that Caribbean SIDS face.2. The high end of the shaded area is maximum debt service ratio, and the low end is the minimum, which remains at or just above zero.3. Bahamas data is unavailable for 2017 and 2018 and Barbados data is unavailable after 2015..

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

The Caribbean (13 countries): net official development assistance received, 1960–2018

(Percentages of gross national income)

Source: World Bank database.

a Antigua and Barbuda, Bahamas, Barbados, Belize, Dominica, Grenada, Guyana, Jamaica, Saint Kitts and Nevis, Saint Lucia, Saint Vincent and the Grenadines, Suriname and Trinidad and Tobago

Concessional financial support is an imperative for the Caribbean

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The Caribbean Heavily indebted poor countries Low income countries

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Development Finance for COVID 19 Response in the Eastern Caribbean 2nd June 2020.

Five recommendations for financial support and increase fiscal space for Caribbean SIDS

1. ECLAC debt relief initiative for resilience

2. Debt and service stand still and access to concessional funding, eligibility criteria of IFIs

3. Stage contingency bonds: hurricane clause

4. Green and blue bonds

5. Liquidity support Special Drawing Rights (SDR) Issuance.

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Poverty and inequality

Women’s empowerment

Food security and access to ICT

platforms

Unemployment particularly for

youth

Strengthening health and sanitation

Warning signs just 10 years from Agenda 2030 and SAMOA Pathway

SIDS Session at HLPF 8 July 2020

Thank you