lng q1 2014 earnings call 30 jul’13aceanalyser.com/conference call/132522_20130730.pdf · vice...
TRANSCRIPT
Petronet LNG Q1 2014 Earnings Call 30 Jul’13
Operator Ladies and gentlemen, good day and welcome to the Petronet LNG Limited Q1 FY14 Post‐Results Conference Call hosted by HDFC Securities. As a reminder, for the duration of this conference, all participants' lines will be in the listen‐only mode. There will be an opportunity for you to ask questions at the end of today's presentation. Please not that this conference is being recorded. At this time, I would like to hand the conference over to Mr. Aishwarya Deepak. Thank you and over to you, sir.
Aishwarya Deepak, Analyst Yeah. Good afternoon, everyone. On behalf of HDFC Securities, I welcome you all on the Q1 FY14 earning conference call of Petronet LNG. We have with us Mr. R K Garg, Director of Finance; Mr. Pankaj Wadhwa. Vice President, Finance; and Mr. Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing. Mr. Garg is a bit occupied in the press conference and would be joining us probably in two to three minutes, in between we will just start with the results.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Thank you, Aishwarya. Good afternoon, everyone. This is Pankaj Wadhwa and I have my colleague Mr. Vivek Mittal with me. Our Director, Finance, Mr. R K Garg will join in a few minutes. The Board Meeting took more than the scheduled time and lot of deliberation on various agenda, which had led to this delay, my sincere apologies.
To share with you the results, during the quarter which has ended on 30th of June this year, the Q1 for this financial year, our company operated at 102% of its capacity. You are aware that Dahej is only the operating terminal right now. And the name plate capacity of the Dahej terminal is 10 million tons per annum.
The total volume that we regasified during the quarter was 129.5 trillion BTUs. We will shortly give you a break‐up of various components that we share with you. The quarterly turnover locked has been 8,444 crores. And compared to the corresponding quarter last year, this is an increase of over 20%. You're aware that mostly this increase is on account of the higher volume, as also the price of LNG under the long‐term LNG SPA that the company had with Ras Laffan of Qatar.
For the quarter ended we locked a net profit of INR225 crore, compared to 271 crores in the corresponding quarter. And there has been a decrease of INR46 crore on ‐‐ primarily on account of the lower margins, as also the increase in internal consumption within the plant.
Considering the demand for natural gas, we have already, as discussed in our earlier calls, decided to further expand the capacity of Dahej terminal by 5 million tons, the nameplate to 15 million tons per annum.
The pre‐qualification of EBC contractors for this purpose has already been made and we are now evaluating the request for proposals, which has been received from the short‐listed contractors. And we are targeting that in the next couple of months we should be able to award the works for the expanded capacity.
One significant achievement which has happened in the very recent past is that we achieved the financial closures for the expansion project by signing rupee term loan agreement for an amount of INR2,250 crores with State Bank of India and HDFC Bank at very attractive rate of interest.
On the Kochi terminal we have been waiting for quite some time and we had been discussing about it in the previous calls. Now, that day is drawing nearer, we are planning to have mission it in the month of August. The commissioning cargo for the same has already been procured from Ras Laffan of Qatar. And we are expecting that it should be coming to the Kochi terminal in the first fortnight of August, the date will be frozen nearer to the rate of the loading of the cargo at Qatar. And the tie‐up in the initial small ring connecting the consumers of FACT and Kochi Refinery has already been done by GAIL.
So the supplies to these two consumers should start in four to five days from the receipt of commissioning cargo at Kochi. Regarding the third proposed terminal by the company at Gangavaram on the East Coast of India, we have completed various pre‐project activities. The environmental clearance of this project is expected to be received very soon. And we have started working towards short‐listing of the EPC contractors who will be doing the various works at the site.
To give you a detailed breakup of this quarter's volumes, as I said, 129.50 TBTUs. On the long‐term, the volume has been 92.25 TBTUs. On the spotted short‐term side, it has been 18.98 TBTUs. And we have had entered service cargos totaling to 18.27 TBTUs, totaling to the number which I gave you.
So these have been the highlights of the quarter. And we are open to any further queries, any questions that you might have. Over to you.
Questions And Answers Thank you very much, sir. The first question is from the line of Ruchi Vora from UBS. Please go ahead.
Ruchi Vora, Analyst Hi, good evening, and thanks for the opportunity. My first question is on the trading gains/internal efficiency. If you simply multiply the volume by the regas margins in the quarter, the gross profit that we are getting is much higher than what you have reported. So is there a ForEx component which we are missing? And secondly, has there been any discounts given in the quarter?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Ruchi, to answer your quires, no. No gain or loss on account of foreign currency, as we have been maintaining consistently that all the foreign currency up or down site is pass on to the consumers. So there has been no impact of foreign currency on these results.
And again, we are not working on any discount principles, because the terminal, as you have seen, is still operating at more than 100% capacity utilization. The size reason for the overall reduction in the profit, as you see, has been on account of handling more service cargos, rather than your spot and short‐term, because as you compare it with the corresponding and the previous quarters, we had handled more spot and short‐term volumes which certainly had given certain trading gains, which have come down in this quarter.
Ruchi Vora, Analyst Yeah. Because if you do the math of your volumes into your regas margins, we just don't get that number. So there is a slight difference, maybe I can take it offline. But you have been reporting some bit of ForEx fluctuations over the last few quarters. So I was just wondering if that is the case this quarter also. If rupee has moved, I mean, the currency has moved in a big way, right?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing If you see in the results, there is a note. The foreign exchange fluctuation on account of LNG has been passed on and has been included in cost of materials. So to that effect, it is a ‐‐ now a balance. There is no ‐‐ in other expenses there is ForEx component appearing.
Ruchi Vora, Analyst Okay.
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing Mainly to answer your question on, just doing a pure mathematics, you must depreciate that the cost of material consumed includes lot of other things also, which aren't part of our regas charge, it's like port operator charges, water front royalty. So as a result of which you will never get the number which would be ‐‐ it can be higher or lower, this is a different thing depending on the marketing margin. It's not necessarily that it means that it is on a discount. Okay. And my second question is on Kochi. Could you clarify what is your thought now in terms of the volume visibility at the terminal? There have been pipeline delays. So how do you expect that to ramp up? And also, can you throw some color on the sales visibility at the Dahej expansion especially on the LNG jetty, do we have anything tied up?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance To answer your second query first, you are aware that we have been maintaining that the second jetty will not increase our nameplate capacity, although it will give us more flexibility to handle, one, larger ships or more volumes, and to save on the time which is there for budding and de‐budding.
So we are expecting that we should be completing the work on the second jetty by March, April next year. And our offtakers are waiting for that opportunity to bring in more cargos if the demand purchased.
On the Kochi terminal site, we have shared earlier also that pipeline is a constraint and we still have that concern, because till the pipeline connectivity to Mangalore and Bangalore is made by GAIL, who has been awarded these pipeline contracts by the Ministry of Petroleum. We will be constrained for capacity utilization growth. And it is vitally seen that only FACT and Kochi Refinery will be the major offtakers for the time till connectivity to the pipelines is made.
Ruchi Vora, Analyst Okay. Thank you very much and all the best.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayur Patel from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Just I had a couple of questions. First on the volumes. This time, tolling volumes are pretty high as compared to previous quarters, and spot was slightly low as you mentioned. Any specific trends or any specific reason can you share for this thing, or any new contract with GAIL or GSPC on the tolling front or something like that?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance No. On the yearly side, you are aware that we have tolling arrangements with both GAIL and GSPC. And those volumes have been coming and we are marketing those, regasing those and sending it back to the normalization for further marketing.
And other than that, there is no trend as such. I mean, last year we had certain spot short‐term cargos, this year they have been less than what was there last year.
Mayur Patel, Analyst So just can you comment on the demand part, because slightly we are seeing that ‐‐ I know it is difficult to calculate exact spot margins, but still it looks like spot margins have come off a bit or is it purely because of internal consumption increase in Q‐o‐Q?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Basically, two, three things are there. You mentioned about the demand. So yes, when we see overall within the state of Gujarat, as also elsewhere in the country, there has been a sluggishness in demand. We have seen the power sector going off totally from gas and we believe that even the APM gas, which is given to them at a low price is not being consumed by the power sector. So certainly, that has made a dent in terms of the overall pick up of demand.
And even in other industries we see on an overall basis coal perhaps is regaining some of the glory it had lost, because some of the industries who were using coal and now they see that the coal prices internationally have come down. Perhaps, that is one of the reasons that some industries, especially in the state of Gujarat, they are using more of coal.
That, overall, has an impact on the gas demand, which we believe in the coming period, as and when new industry or new conversions take place, will pick up further.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Okay. Just last thing, if you allow. Second jetty we have a long‐term arrangement of 1.2 MMTPA with GSPC starting March or April '14, is it right?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing That's right.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Okay. And so, is it fair to assume that with the kind of marine handling flexibility, after March or April '14, with this 1.2 billion ton visibility, there is a ‐‐ you think that the demand factors also makes a case for some ramp up in the hedge utilization levels?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance There will be two components of this ramp up that takes place. One is, in any case in this capacity or the second jetty is going to give us some flexibility. So a part of that volume, which is given to GSPC, will replace our existing service and short‐term volumes.
As we maintain that out of the 10 million tons, 7.5 million tons is long‐term LNG. And out of the balance apart will go towards that. And rest of it will be certainly depending on how the demand ramps up in Gujarat and elsewhere.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Ranjith Lodha [ph] from B&K Securities. Please go ahead.
Unidentified Participant Hello?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Yes, please.
Unidentified Participant Yeah, sir, hi. Sir, just wanted to know an internal consumption during this quarter. Sir, I know you can't give the number, but is it significantly higher compared to the last quarter or it's just or is it some one‐off impact which is there in this quarter? Only on the internal consumption per se.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance The internal consumption numbers have been very, very consistent. We have been sharing with you that the plant is very efficient and it has been operating at highly efficient level. There has not been any concerns so far as the internal consumption of LNG is concerned.
R K Garg, Director, Finance So the internal consumption is in the similar level as it was in the last quarter?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Sorry.
R K Garg, Director, Finance The internal consumption is at the similar level as it was in the last quarter, right?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Yes, certainly. You see, we have certain parameters defined, and within those parameters the internal consumption numbers vary.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance No, there has been no take‐or‐pay booked in this quarter.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Okay. Thanks.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Tiwari from Religare Capital Markets. Please go ahead.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Hi, sir. Good evening. Would it be watchful for you to give me a break‐up of cargos in long term, short term and tolling, the number of cargos?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing See, we give the volume and which we have already shared that it is 92.26 TBTUs under long‐term, 18.98 TBTUs under the short‐term cargos.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst No, that I have. Actually I wanted the number of cargos, because I'll ‐‐
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing For cargos, there might be some cargos in inventory. But on a general basis, you can divide the volume by 3.1 and you will get the number of cargos.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right, sir. Sir, basically GAIL had indicated sometime back that they would be incrementally getting in more cargo this year as compared to last year. So would that mean that our basically short‐term spot cargos would be like the trend of lesser number of short‐term spot cargo would continue and GAIL and GSPC would be getting in more tolling cargo. That is where I'm trying to get at?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance That may not be the case, because the statement of GAIL which you are referring to. You are aware that they are going to start or restart the Dabhol terminal starting October. I believe some of those cargos are meant for Dabhol and not for Dahej.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right, sir. And sir, just a clarificatory question like what is the current regas charge at Dahej?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing It was INR36.77.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst 36.77. And sir, like how is the LNG environment looking, or like how was it in the past quarter in terms of sourcing and how do we see it like panning out like in the rest of the year that is lying ahead of us?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance On the long‐term basis, there are very promising players who are coming into the market. U.S. LNG holds a lot of potential and starting 2016 and '17, we might see some shale LNG being produced and supplied by U.S. You are also aware that on the East Coast of Africa, namely Mozambique and Tanzania, there have been large finds of gas and they are working jointly to convert that into LNG.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst But that's, like sir, two to three years away. I was like more concern about the near‐term sort of thing, like, how was the LNG environment, I mean, in terms of availability and pricing looking for the next coming months, like next couple of months?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing Yeah. On the price front, there was some tightness in last quarter, basically because of Nigeria and also going on some kind of force majeure.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Yeah.
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing But we do see, because both of them have now come back, we do see the availability of LNG at least in next three, four months time. If winter demand, if it picks up, it depends on how the winter is in the Far East. If it picks up, then probable like every ‐‐ December, January period could be tighter.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right. And you must be aware that there is a new plant at Angola, which has started production.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right, sir.
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing Which is a 5 million ton, so that obviously would also ease and make us available globally.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right, sir. Sir, and in the beginning of the call you indicated that there was some increase in ‐‐ basically in terms of consumption. So is that like substantial or is that like one‐off or has happened in this quarter?
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing There has been some increase and it is within the allowed parameter. So we cannot comment whether it will continue or not, because there are certain benchmarks available internationally, as well as for the plant in specific.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Right, sir.
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing We are very well within those norms.
Nitin Tiwari, Analyst Okay, sir. Sir, I believe that's all from my end. Sir, thanks a lot for answering my questions.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sabri Hazarika from Antique Stock Broking. Please go ahead, sir.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Yes, good evening. This is Amit Rastogi from Antique. Yeah, Amit.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Good evening, Amit.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Sir, good evening. Sir, a very small question that when we are going to see the tendering happening for our Dahej expansion? And we have already booked some capacity in that, so are we planning to book more capacities into that like other refiners asking for capacity. So are we going to see that happening in the near‐term?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Amit, just to ‐‐ and for the audience, Mr. Garg has also joined the line now. To answer your queries on the tendering, as I mentioned earlier, we have already received ‐‐ dequalified the bidders, the storage stag packages, as well as the regas packages. We are evaluating them and target that in the next two months we should be able to award this contract.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Okay. Our entire expansion?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Yes.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Okay.
Vivek Mittal, Senior Manager, Commercial and Marketing And in terms of capacity booking, yes, there is demand from other refiners, which is IOCL and BPC [ph], and we are in process of finalizing the agreement. That's all I would say.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Okay. So basically, this Dahej expansion, tendering will happen in next two months time?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Tendering is already over, we will award within next two months time. Okay.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Target is to complete everything by September. If not, definitely by ‐‐ award by October. This is the ‐‐
Amit Rastogi, Analyst And sir, second question is that we have been seeing that, earlier we were signing mid‐term contract and now we are running only one mid‐term contract and other contracts have been signed by GAIL. So are we seeing any like tough competition from GAIL's side, because internationally I think when we were there, internationally people were asking us that other companies from India should come through Petronet only. Now, we are seeing that companies are tying up directly with on the mid‐term contract. So are we planning to sign new contracts in the near term or what is the strategy on that front in signing mid‐term contracts?
R K Garg, Director, Finance See, the strategy is very clear that we wanted to use our capacity to the maximum, or if somebody wanted to commit with us on a use‐or‐pay basis and use our capacity in the first strategy, where we could achieve by ‐‐ GAIL is committing with us on use‐or‐pay basis on certain slots during this year and we have given to them.
Though we know that if we buy our own cargos, we may have some margins. But ultimately we know the market is behaving differently, economic is very ‐‐ slowed down, and it may be giving a pressure on the demand for some time. And we also know that there are two LNG terminals; one is Dabhol, which has been commissioned recently and they will be able to do certain volumes. Shell Hazira has also been expanded. Considering everything, our strategy is to build ‐‐ fill our capacity to the maximum, either by toiling volume or the short‐term volume.
If we have a good opportunity for a short‐term volume and there is a buyer for it, we will go for that also.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Okay. And sir, at what levels the short‐term volumes are coming in terms of linkages like 12% to 14%, where do you see them now coming?
R K Garg, Director, Finance No, I think we have not yet started discussing for the next year, we'll start discussing and then we'll be able to tell you when we'll finalize it.
Amit Rastogi, Analyst Okay, right. Thanks a lot, sir. Thanks for your comments.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Okay.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Nitin Latia from HDFC Mutual Fund. Please go ahead.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Just to carry the previous question forward, the Dahej expansion award, are we now in position of all clearances for the project or we are waiting something still?
R K Garg, Director, Finance You see, as far as the land is concerned, land is done and we are just awaiting maybe within a day or two, if final letter from Ministry of Environment, because they have to issue a letter. It is because it was a forest land, it was got it done. So this is not an issue at all.
And second is with respect to environment clearance, already public hearing is done, EIA report is there and there is a final approval is there. And everything we feel that would be in place in a period of one and two months maximum. And that is why we are going ahead with EPC evaluation. EPC award, we will do it side by side. So everything ‐‐ there is no concern from our side, acutely that which will greet and we'll not be able to award EPC. So Dahej is not an issue for ‐‐ as far as approvals are concerned. We are quite confident that everything would be in place by September when we'll be ready to award EPC.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Okay. But we still have to get a letter for the ‐‐ from the Environment Ministry for the forest clearance?
R K Garg, Director, Finance This is ‐‐ we have already received earlier approval, this is the final clearance. It is not that approval is not there. So it is a final that you have to give some plan and then finally they will issue a letter, but there is no concern on that.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Okay.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Don't worry about that. We will have within a maximum two months time, everything in place, then we'll be able to award EPC.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Sure, sir. And on the medium‐term market itself, are there cargos which are available and we are not tying ourselves because of pricing or is the market tight enough that we ‐‐ there is no medium‐term opportunity available? You see the generally medium‐terms opportunity for the next year, this is the time that if we start discussing now, for the next year volume, of a short‐term volume for next year onward.
Already we are in discussion. The prices are definitely linked with the crude, whatever the crude is going to happen. The current spot markets are also reached beyond 14 million tons. So prices are going to be of this range, depends upon where is the crude is, today crude is around 108 or 107. And if take the slope, it will be of the similar level.
I think we are seeing ‐‐ we are discussing with consumers along with the supplier. Both are ‐‐ we are side by side discussing. And we believe that market can absorb the prices what is prevailing in the international market for a short‐term only. And let's see, when we'll finalize, we'll let you know.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Okay. Sir, could you give us a sense of what the ‐‐ where minimum current year spot and ‐‐ spot volume and medium‐term volume would be that you will get at your day, sir?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Very difficult to say for this, because spot volume hasn't see ‐‐ how the market will be able to take at what price, what is the price level. Spot always remains spot, we have a target to take actually one cargo every month, this is the target. But ultimately it depends upon how the prices would behave and how the market will take that volume. So let's see how much we'll be able to achieve that.
Nitin Latia, Analyst Okay, sir. That's it from my side. Thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Maulik Patel from Equirus Securities. Please go ahead.
Maulik Patel, Analyst Yeah, good evening. Sir, can you ‐‐ I think on the demand side, at what price customers are comfortable, particularly those customers which were buying the cargos of the LNG at an higher price and the reason in the slow down, so have you've seen those incidents where the customers are asking for a deduction in the price?
R K Garg, Director, Finance It depends, when you see those ‐‐ you are talking about the spot short‐term or at a long term?
Maulik Patel, Analyst Both, spot or mid‐terms cargos. As far as the spot is concerned, this is entirely different story, because spot prices are fixed prices not linked with the crude level. Sometimes the crude is very high and spot prices, you can get LNG at a very cheap price. It depends upon other international events happening. May be it happens also internal spot prices are very high, whether it's ‐‐ there is a ‐‐ crude is behaving at lower level.
So it's spotted and totally spot and it's very difficult to comment on the spot, what is the pricing in that. It depends upon when the prices are low, the consumer demand is more and their affordability increases. When the prices go beyond certain level, then the consumers goes out and they don't take LNG. Some of the consumers take it, but the factor which are price‐sensitive, they will not take it.
In the long term and short term, yes it's linked with the crude levels, generally signed with the ‐‐ linked with JCC or Brent and considering, say if $100 of a crude, I think if prices are between mid‐13 or a little less than 13.5, we feel that there is a market. And we have to see that how the prices would remain and will go to that.
Definitely power sector always have an issue, and power sectors whether whatever the price you'll give, it will remain an issue with them. We have seen in the past also and it will continue to be. Other than power sector, generally they consume our LNG and if it is comparable with the other liquid fuels, whatever they are using it, if it make sense, they will take it.
I think each consumer is having their own economics and ‐‐ but generally we have seen that liquid fuel can be replaced by LNG, prices if it is linked with crude level.
Maulik Patel, Analyst And sir, I think on this ‐‐ recently the media has reported that GAIL has asked you to renegotiate Gurgaon contract. So do you want to comment on that or any update?
R K Garg, Director, Finance I can only say, they have asked, that's all. We are reviewing the request in terms of the contractual provision and discussing with other off takers also. And we will device our own view together with other off takers along with GAIL also, and we'll see what best can be done.
Maulik Patel, Analyst But have you seen that incidences in an international market where this ‐‐ such a long term contract, have you re‐negotiated it?
R K Garg, Director, Finance There have been instances of re‐negotiate system, certain contexts have the provision for re‐negotiation. There are certain commercial events has happened where re‐negotiation has happened, because the long term contract, there is a relationship for a long time for the both the parties. If one party is suffering other party can't continue to gain very long.
So this has just happened and I think we have to see ‐‐ government volume still it has come in 2015, there is a time.
Maulik Patel, Analyst R K Garg, Director, Finance Why you are asking everything which is confidential? So let us ‐‐ we will do our work and then see.
Maulik Patel, Analyst Okay, all the best.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Vidyadhar Ginde from DSP Merrill Lynch. Please go ahead.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Yeah, good evening, couple of questions. One on Kochi terminal, the capitalization date will be July 1, or will it be when first cargo is solid and the next question is in terms of RasGas, what are the price of RasGas in 1Q and 1H this year roughly?
R K Garg, Director, Finance You see, the RasGas price is currently prevailing around $12 FOB.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Okay.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Okay, and there is a ‐‐
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst So currently means, you mean right now or during the last quarter?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Now. Right now.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Which is in July? Which is in July.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Okay, thanks.
R K Garg, Director, Finance There is an around $0.20 increase is happening every month. So now you can work out yourself.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Okay and which will stop in ‐‐ it will finalize there, from Jan onwards it will be fully linked‐oil?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Yeah, January‐linked, yes, you are right. And your first Kochi question, Kochi, in any case, the cargo would come in August. We cannot capitalize before that. We'll be capitalizing after we have commissioned the terminal. Hopefully, everything goes okay, maybe by the end of August, but, very difficult to say let us wait.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst So, effectively the impact of Kochi will be probably for a month or a little over that in the quarter?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Yes, you're right.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Okay. Thanks a lot, thank you very much.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line Vikas Jain from CLSA. Please go ahead.
Vikas Jain, Analyst Hi thanks for taking my question. I had related to Kochi terminal again, could you update us on the time lines for the pipeline and different sections which are there, the Mangalore and Bangalore and also if you've signed up, you've told about the NTPC plant, is there any progress on that and ‐‐ or any other key customers?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance As far as Kochi, yeah, you are right because it depends upon the pipeline and the other pipelines would come in place. And we have being discussing with GAIL and they have ‐‐ are also working hard that this pipeline connects here as quickly as possible. Even we had a discussion today in the board in detail about this pipeline likely commissioning and whatever issues related to that. And we are given to understand that, it may take maybe by the end of this year ‐financial year to get at least one pipeline connected. There are issues which are beyond the control of GAIL also because, already one of the states, Tamil Nadu there is an issue, the matter is already is sub judice and there is the local government is not giving favorable view, so that's why they are facing difficulties.
But there is another pipeline which is going from ‐‐ directly from Kochi to Mangalore via Kerala route. So we have been given to understand it may take around another nine months to complete that, I think are progressing now.
So we are hopeful that if that pipeline is connected, actually say a year we will suffer and after that, the volume would pick up. About the Kayamkulam, I'm not sure when it will happen for power project. I think we should not take it at this moment as a project until that decision is taken between NTPC and GAIL, so ‐‐ commission that pipeline and they will pick up the volume at our LNG prices. So we are not very confident about that happening very soon.
Vidyadhar Ginde, Analyst Okay, thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Sudarshan Dhamal from Multi‐Act. Please go ahead.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Thanks for the opportunity, sir. So question on Kochi terminal again. What is the expected date of delivery of Gorgon gas and will the contracted volume be fully supplied from the year one itself or it will be slowly built up within next one to two years whenever the gas starts?
R K Garg, Director, Finance You see, as you might be aware that Gorgon supply would start only after June 2015 as on date whatever projections are there, may be in the second half of the 2015, sometime and as far as the ramp up, yes there are ramp up there. There are three trains. We will get some volume to start with, maybe‐one third from 2015 whatever the date they will commission and then ramp up every six months or nine months later for a second train and third train. So maybe by 2017, we would have the full volume.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Okay. Sir, previously you have indicated that the marketing margin and the hedge is around 0.2 to 0.25 cents per unit. What sort of marketing margin you can ‐‐ you are expecting at Kochi terminal going forward, when volumes are ramping up?
R K Garg, Director, Finance I think Kochi, our target is to first fill up the capacity, not look for the marketing margins at this stage. At this stage, use the regasification capacity and whatever the ‐‐ you can use it. If the price is right, price is cheap we can have marketing
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Okay, sir on the Kochi terminal, the two customers there, you will start supplying gas which is through GAIL. That specifically ‐‐ on that you're not earning any marketing, basically it's through your off taker only, right?
R K Garg, Director, Finance You see, our model is only selling through off takers.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Okay.
R K Garg, Director, Finance There is also most of that ‐‐ somewhere 90%, 95%, even I'd say 99% goes through off takers only. So margin is depends upon the market dynamics. At Kochi, I think there are only two consumers. We have to see that they're comfortable with the prices whatever applicable in the market.
We have only agreed for a first cargo, which is commissioning cargo. We will go along as more and more volumes they will pick up and see the market situations.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Okay and sir one more lastly, is assuming the Mangalore pipeline comes in next year of time, what sort of capacity utilization you're seeing on your Kerala customers and whatever customers you're expected to get on the Mangalore line?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Very difficult to answer at immediately, but I think it maybe ‐‐ operating maybe ‐‐ higher capacity maybe, million ton more.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Okay, million ton more.
R K Garg, Director, Finance This is the fact we believe.
Sudarshan Dhamal, Analyst Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Amit Shah from BNP Paribas. Please go ahead.
Amit Shah, Analyst Hi sir. Just one question and if you know, if you can probably help me out. Assuming if the GAIL pipeline was ready tomorrow. Under current market circumstances, how much volume do you think we can do at Kochi?
R K Garg, Director, Finance It has to be seen that whether the pipeline is connected to the consumers and the consumers are ready to take it. Everything depended on that and whatever the prices prevailing, at the particular point of time.
Amit Shah, Analyst No, in like saying today's scenario, hypothetically?
R K Garg, Director, Finance I think, hypothetical question has no answer. So I think we have to ‐‐
Amit Shah, Analyst
If you just to gauge the demand, because the next day onwards when the pipeline is ready, that would be useful.
R K Garg, Director, Finance No, I mean, I mentioned the pipeline ‐‐ what they've given in this is maybe a one pipeline may be ready in a year's time. So during the year when ‐‐ it is practically it is happening side‐by‐side, the consumers' readiness and also connectivity would also happen. And then we will see whatever the market price is prevailing and how much they will take it. That's why I say that maybe million ton.
Amit Shah, Analyst Okay. All right, sir. Thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mr. Sen from IDFC Securities. Please go ahead.
Robel Sen, Analyst Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Arya Sen from Jefferies. Please go ahead.
Arya Sen, Analyst Hi good evening sir. Firstly any update on Gangavaram and particularly any of the ‐‐ plans to have an FSRU there?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Gangavaram is still ‐‐ we are in a process of getting various approvals including environment clearance and others. FSRU is still on the table and we are still ‐‐ it depends upon the timing. If they ‐‐ overall everything will be complete, everything in the next few months time, then we can bring a FSRU by ‐‐ maybe by early 2015. Then it make sense. If thinks ‐‐ a little take more time, then the land base would be ready early 2017.
So here in any case, FSRU is only the mid‐term solution ‐‐ in time solution. So it would be ‐‐ it is linked with that, as quickly we move with all three projects and approvals activity plus the readiness of connectivity pipelines et cetera, pretty links with that. Still we are hopeful that we may be able to complete everything in the next few months time and then we'll bring an FSRU, at least for a period of three year.
Arya Sen, Analyst Right and the secondly sir, the capacity ‐‐ Dahej terminal expansion which is been underwritten by GAIL and GSPC, have you received any of that money and what is the schedule for receiving that money, is any of it reflected in your FY '13 balance sheet?
R K Garg, Director, Finance See, the money would come when we need money. It is liked with the ‐‐ my EPC progress. So it is not the like they are giving me money upfront. It is linked with the progress of the EPC work and it will be coming in tranches as we really spend the money.
Arya Sen, Analyst Okay and together GAIL and GSPC are ‐‐ have committed how much, towards the expansion?
R K Garg, Director, Finance We have total 4.75 million tons, which will happen for expansion as well as second year commencement, both together. 4.75 is the underwritten by both and there is an additional requirement for this two other off‐takers, they wanted more than that
and now we have limitation of the capacity of levels. So, let's see that how much.
Arya Sen, Analyst R K Garg, Director, Finance No I'm talking about 10 million capacity, we are having long‐term only 7.5 right now.
Arya Sen, Analyst Okay.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Okay.
Arya Sen, Analyst Okay, that's all from my side. Thanks a lot.
Operator Thank you. The next question is on the line of Harshad from Motilal Oswal Securities Limited. Please go ahead.
Harshad Borawake, Analyst Hi, sir thanks for the opportunity. I have two questions. One is on the, during the opening remarks you said, there's an increase in the internal consumption and also the margins were lower in this quarter. On the internal consumption side, can you tell me it was more about volume side or it was about the gas cost which was higher in this quarter?
R K Garg, Director, Finance I think it is both. Price is you know, the prices are increasing every quarter, so that is one. Second is on the quantity also. One thing, I think you should know that because the plant is now easing, and it's already nine years. So there is some increase in the consumption is also happening a little better, little more than what was been done earlier.
Third thing, I think all of you must realize that, when the measurement took place in such a big volume of 10 million tons, there are metering tolerances. Sometime it comes in positive, sometime it comes in different directions. So whatever the difference is also there, we'll book an internal consumption. So it is unknown thing that which happens and comparing quarter‐to‐quarter has becomes sometimes in such a big quantity may be a very small volume within the tolerance is, it looks like a very positive, very negative. That is what is reflected in this particular quarter that you are saying.
Harshad Borawake, Analyst Okay, and can you elaborate more on the comments on this lower margins, what could this will be? Lower margin is because of the reason, because we have not having much of our in spot volumes. Spot volume was low, tolling volumes were high, because the tolling volumes are high we are not having any market on that, but this is because of that.
Harshad Borawake, Analyst Sure and sir lastly, can you give the comparable forex fluctuation number for this quarter, you had given in the March quarter, just for the modeling purpose can you just give that number?
R K Garg, Director, Finance it should be around 75 crores we have basically cost of additional of forex. But in any case, it is a cost to cost of goods also.
Harshad Borawake, Analyst So which is a part of raw materials?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Raw materials, in case (inaudible).
Harshad Borawake, Analyst Okay fine. Thank you, thanks a lot. That's all from my side.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Mayur Patel from Spark Capital. Please go ahead.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Thank you sir for taking. One follow‐up question. Sir in Kochi we have seen still on the demand side apart from the pipeline connectivity, we still have ‐‐ at least it will take couple of years to reach something like 60%, 70% utilization level. Sir, so on Gangavaram, sir what is the comfort level on the demand in that part of the country for putting that kind of CapEx, what is the kind of expectations mean, from the start if the related pipelines come on time unlike the Tamil Nadu incident which has happened, how do you see Gangavaram, whenever it comes in 2016 or whenever it comes.
How many years or what kind of expectation is there? Is there anything you can share with us in terms of just your thought process on that project?
R K Garg, Director, Finance You know, in Gangavaram again we've done a market assessment and in that particular reason plus a central reason, there is no gas which is ‐‐ that has gone to the consumer. And there are consumers that who are looking for gas. Not only there are normal consumers like power sector and fertilizers, but other than that, especially the refineries are also there, petchems are there, there are industries who are looking for this. So we have done that market assessment and we feel that there is a demand of gas there, that is why we are building it.
I agree that always the demand when it is converted into a real demand, there are issues with respect to prices, there are with respect to the connectivity and their readiness to the gas. It's takes a little longer time when it is a new market. So based on that market assessment we have decided to put up this terminal. How much time it will take up, that it's utilized, it's again I think that everybody has to work together, including the pipeline company plus the consumers and we are already in discussions with that.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Sir can you share some big demand pockets, some, say Paradip refinery which is coming up or?
R K Garg, Director, Finance We are not going to Paradip at all, and remaining ‐‐ very close to the Gangavaram, maybe Andhra.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Vizag refinery would be one anchor customer?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Vizag refinery is there, there is an Essar Steel plant is there. There are steel plant of SAIL is there in Vizag itself. Though, I don't
know how much volumes they will take, because there an issue of pricing there and then volume will be connected and going to Kakinada and Kakinada's other consumers and connected to the RGPL pipeline.
And so then ultimately when you've reached to Kakinada you've already reached to even to the western market. So there are consumers actually within that area.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Fine sir, and when is ‐‐ what is the guidance for commissioning of completing this project of Gangavaram?
R K Garg, Director, Finance At the best, by 2017 that's ‐‐ we can say that it right now, maybe early 2017.
Mayur Patel, Analyst Sir last question, if you allow me, we are hearing that after the Tamil Nadu deadlock, there has been some news articles that GAIL is rethinking or reviewing that piece. So if as you told that Kerala pipeline comes through, are you hearing anything else that to compensate for one demand center moving out, the entire Tamil Nadu belt, any other proposition are you hearing from GAIL because just this Kerala pipeline will not be sufficient to give visibility for Kochi throughput.
R K Garg, Director, Finance I can only say these are the postures and the companies make it when, say some particular state is not giving clearance, either not allowing that to pipeline, what the GAIL will do? GAIL will do the same thing, what we'll do. So I think these are postures but country need gas, consumers need gas there. Consumers are looking for gas.
There is public interest litigation filed by the consumers there. It is not by the GAIL. So there is a demand there, but if pipeline has not allowed to be laid, what the GAIL will do?
Maulik Patel, Analyst That's right.
R K Garg, Director, Finance So, this is the public posture I think, I can say only that.
Maulik Patel, Analyst Fine thanks a lot sir. All the best.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Devang Mehta from Canara Robeco Asset Management. Please go ahead.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Thank you for taking for question. Just as I understand there will be a lot operational issues at Kochi and the cost ‐initial cost would be very high. So just wanted to understand in terms of what would be the internal consumption of LNG, if the terminal is being operated at a very low?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance I think I'll be able to assess ourselves when we will operate it, very difficult to share anything at this moment. It is an unprecedented thing that we are also doing first time. At so level ‐‐ so low level we'll be operating this terminal. Definitely the
consumption would be high, I agree with you.
Maulik Patel, Analyst But can you help sir with any ballpark number of how much it will higher than the terminal which is operating at 75%?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance Devang Mehta, Analyst Okay and anything apart from that would you like to highlight, any other operational challenge at Kochi, operating at a lower level?
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance There is nothing that, technically we have seen all these parameters and our technical team is fully confident that we can operate at the level and whatever the precautions and the equipment got to be installed that are being done. So that's ‐‐ otherwise there is no issue. It is only at operating at low level with say high CapEx and this is the concern.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Okay, that's it from my side. Thank you.
Operator Thank you. The next question is from the line of Rohit Ahuja from ICICI Securities. Please go ahead.
Rohit Ahuja, Analyst Hi good evening sir. Sir, can you please conform on these customs duty for on LNG being exempt for power plants. I think that's being extended to all the power generating unit except captive, is that conformed sir?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Yeah, it is conformed, yes it is there.
Rohit Ahuja, Analyst So now the issue has been clarified what you have?
R K Garg, Director, Finance No, this issue have clarified, earlier it was only for Petronet and (inaudible)
Rohit Ahuja, Analyst Yeah.
R K Garg, Director, Finance Devang Mehta, Analyst Right, right, right. Okay. So that's should be helpful for you.
R K Garg, Director, Finance That should ‐‐ I do know whether the power sector which is 5%, whether it will be helpful to them or not. And we have to see that
whether really power factor would be able to support our LNG price.
Pankaj Wadhwa, Vice President, Finance As we explained to you in the beginning of the call that they are not even taking the APM gas which is multiple times lower than the LNG.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Yeah, yeah, so it should not be ‐‐
R K Garg, Director, Finance Power sector, we should not give more combinations with respect to our LNG is concerned.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Sir, additionally on Kochi, I believe we are starting at INR62 regas tariff?
R K Garg, Director, Finance This is very provisional, we've indicated yes.
Devang Mehta, Analyst So there is a probability that initially you might charge higher?
R K Garg, Director, Finance I do not know, I'll start with the market because I can't load that with high regas charge.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Well, I guess since your cargo is just about to come you would have ‐No, no this is for first cargo is 62, I have put in.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Okay, so increment of cargo ‐‐
R K Garg, Director, Finance ‐‐ for provisioning of cargo we have told them that we will charge at this rate, but what would be the finally regas rate going forward in future we'll have to see.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Right sir and this cargo is being bought by GAIL or by you guys?
R K Garg, Director, Finance By Petronet.
Devang Mehta, Analyst By Petronet, okay. And sir last question on your U.S. investment, any update on that as (inaudible) terminal?
R K Garg, Director, Finance Nothing, I think we are discussing it still, there's a long time, long way to go. The supply would come sometime 2016, 2019.
Devang Mehta, Analyst When do you expect the contract to be finalized with them? End of this year?
R K Garg, Director, Finance We should say everything depends upon the negotiations and Dahej, how it goes but definitely we are looking for a long term volume for our terminal because three terminals are there, going to be there and what will be the right price and right source, we are discussing various sources still. We'll take a call as we go along.
Devang Mehta, Analyst Okay. Thanks, sir.
Operator Aishwarya Deepak, Analyst On behalf of the HDFC Securities, I thank Mr. R K Garg, Mr. Pankaj Wadhwa and Mr. Vivek Mittal for their valuable time and providing insights on different projects, Dahej, Kochi, as well as Gangavaram. I would also thank the participants for joining us for the call. Thank you, very much.
Operator Thank you sir. Thank you members of the management. On behalf of the HDFC Securities that concludes this conference call. Thank you for joining us and you may now disconnect your lines. Thank you.