krausmann & fischer-kowalski | isie lisbon | 22.06.2009 the metabolic scale of the world economy...

Krausmann & Fischer-Kowalski | ISIE Lisbon | 22.06.2009

The metabolic scale of the world economy in the past century

Fridolin Krausmann, Marina Fischer-KowalskiJulia Steinberger and Nina Eisenmenger


• Global metabolic scale

• Metabolic rates

• Global convergence scenarios

• Resource productivity

Overview


Global materials extraction = use (DMC)1900 to 2005

0

20

40

60

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]

Construction minerals

Ores and industrial minerals

Fossil energy carriers

Biomass


Global material extraction database

Material type Content Source

Biomass 165 primary crops incl. used crop residues (<50 crops)Roughage and grazed biomass (12 items)Wood harvest

FAO and predecessors; used crop residues (model); grazed biomass (model); wood harvest (FAO, various estimates)

Fossil energy carriers Hard and soft coal, petroleum, natural gas, peat

Podobnik 1995, United Nations 1950, IEA 2007

Ores 44 ores (gross ore) Metal content: USGS 2008Gross ores: estimate

Non metallic minerals 33 non-metallic minerals USGS 2008

Construction minerals Limestone for cement production, sand and gravel for construction

Conservative estimate; based on cement production; concrete production and asphalt production


0

20

40

60

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]




Biomass

Metabolic scale:Global materials use 1900 to 2005


Metabolic scale:Global materials use 1900 to 2005

-

5

10

15

20

25

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]

Biomass


Ores and industrialminerals



0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

DMC

[ave

rag

e an

nu

al g

row

th r

ate]

1900-1945 1945-1973

1973-2000 2000-2005

Periods of growth:Average annual growth rates (DMC, GDP, population)

0,0%

1,0%

2,0%

3,0%

4,0%

5,0%

DMC GDP Population

[ave

rag

e an

nu

al g

row

th r

ate]

1900-1945 1945-1973

1973-2000 2000-2005


Metabolic scale

Definition: metabolic scale is the size of the overall annual material (DMC) or primary energy input (TPES, DEC) of a socio-economic system, measured according to established standards of MEFA analysis.

The metabolic scale of the world economy has been increasing by one order of magnitude during the last century:

– Materials use: From 7 billion tons to over 60 bio t (DMC, all materials).

– Energy use: From 44 EJ primary energy to 480 EJ (TPES, commercial energy only).


Metabolic rate

Definition: Metabolic rate is the metabolic scale of a socio-economic system divided by its population number = annual material / energy use per capita

It represents the biophysical burden associated to an average individual

The global metabolic rate:

• Moderate growth from 1900 to 1945 (0.2%);

• Rapid growth from 1945 to 1973 (1.6%);

• Stabilization from 1973 to 2000 (0.6%) despite substantial economic growth; 8t/cap (DMC) and 60 GJ/cap (TPES).

• Since 2000: a new phase of growth (3.7%) can be observed.


Metabolic rates:Material and energy use per capita

-

20,0

40,0

60,0

80,0

100,0

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

TP

ES

[GJ/

cap/

yr]

-

2,0

4,0

6,0

8,0

10,0

DM

C [t

/cap

/yr]

TPES/cap (primary y-axis)

DMC/cap (secondary y-axis)

Energy

Materials


0

1

2

3

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]

Minerals

Ores

Fossil fuels

Biomass

National trends: metabolic scale (DMC)

0

20

40

6019

00

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]




Biomass

0

3

6

9

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[bill

ion

to

ns]

Minerals

Ores

Fossil fuels

Biomass

0

1

2

3

4

5

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

[bill

ion

to

ns]



Fossil fuels

Biomass

Global

India: 8% of globalBrazil: 4% of global

USA: 15% of global

Sources:USA: Gierlinger 2009Brazil: Mayer 2009India: Lanz 2009


0

10

20

30

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[t/c

ap/y

r]

Minerals

Ores

Fossil fuels

Biomass

National trends: metabolic rates

-

10,0

20,0

30,0

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[t/c

ap/y

r]




Biomass

0

10

20

30

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

[t/c

ap/y

r]Construction minerals


Fossil fuels

Biomass

0

10

20

30

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

[t/c

ap/y

r]

Minerals

Ores

Fossil fuels

Biomass

Global

IndiaBrazil

USA

Sources:USA: Gierlinger 2009Brazil: Mayer 2009India: Lanz 2009


Metabolic rate vs. income (GDP/cap):

R2 = 0.64

N = 175 countriesYear 2000


Metabolic rates by development status and population density

DMC t/cap in yr 2000

-

5

10

15

20

25

High densityindustrial

Low densityindustrial

High densitydeveloping

Low densitydeveloping (NW)



Fossil fuels

Biomass

Share of world population

Pop density

13%

123

6%

12

62%

140

6%

19


Scenario assumptions(all : relation between high density/low density countries remains

unchanged; population growth by UN projection)

1. Baseline 2000 scenario

2. Freeze and catching up: industrial countries maintain their metabolic rates of the year 2000, developing countries catch up to same rates

3. Factor 2 and catching up: industrial countries reduce their metabolic rates by factor 2, developing countries catch up

4. Freeze global DMC: global resource consumption by the year 2000 remains constant by 2050, industrial and developing countries settle for identical metabolic rates


Global metabolic rates in t/cap

Global convergence scenarios

0

4

8

12

16

Baseline 2000 Freeze &catching up

Factor 2 &catching up

Freeze globalDMC


Ores and industrialmineralsFossil fuels

Biomass

Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes

0

40

80

120

160

Baseline 2000 Freeze &catching up

Factor 2 &catching up

Freeze globalDMC


Global convergence scenarios

Global metabolic rates in t/cap

Global metabolic scales in billion tonnes

-

6

12

18

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

me

tab

olic

ra

te [

t/c

ap

/yr]

Baseline 2000

Freeze & catching up

Factor 2 & catching up

Freeze global DMC

-

50

100

150

1900

1910

1920

1930

1940

1950

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

me

tab

olic

sc

ale

[G

t]

Baseline 2000

Freeze & catching up

Factor 2 & catching up

Freeze global DMC


Resource productivity:GDP per unit of materials and energy input

-

25

50

75

100

1900

1905

1910

1915

1920

1925

1930

1935

1940

1945

1950

1955

1960

1965

1970

1975

1980

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

En

erg

y p

rod

uc

tiv

ity

[$

GD

P/G

J T

PE

S]

-

0,3

0,5

0,8

1,0

Ma

teri

al i

pro

du

cti

vit

y [

$ G

DP

/kg

DM

C]

Energy (primary y-axis)

Materials (secondary y-axis)


Resource productivity:GDP per unit of materials input (biomass/minerals)

-

0,5

1,0

1,5

2,0

2,5

19

00

19

05

19

10

19

15

19

20

19

25

19

30

19

35

19

40

19

45

19

50

19

55

19

60

19

65

19

70

19

75

19

80

19

85

19

90

19

95

20

00

20

05

Ma

teri

al p

rod

uc

tiv

ity

[$

GD

P/k

g D

MC

]

Biomass

Minerals

Biomass

Minerals


Thank you for your attention!

• Data download:

http://www.uni-klu.ac.at/socec/inhalt/1088.htm

• Publications:– Krausmann, F., Gingrich, S., Eisenmenger, N., Erb, K.H., Haberl, H., Fischer-

Kowalski, M. 2009. Growth in global materials use, GDP and population during the 20th century, Ecological Economics (in press).

– Krausmann, F., M. Fischer-Kowalski, H. Schandl, and N. Eisenmenger 2008. The global socio-metabolic transition: past and present metabolic profiles and their future trajectories. Journal of Industrial Ecology 12(5/6), 637-656.

krausmann & fischer-kowalski | isie lisbon | 22.06.2009 the metabolic scale of the world economy...

Documents

global scale

global materials extraction

data base slide

nina eisenmenger slide

use dmc

statistical data

biophysical input data

metal production