KITUI EARLY WARNING BULLETIN FOR NOVEMBER 2014

EARLY WARNING FLAG

+Drought Situation & EW Phase Classification

Biophysical indicators show unusual fluctuations outside expected seasonal ranges. The below average rainfall experienced in the last three months has impacted negatively on the state of pasture. The Vegetation Condition Index (VCI) is equal to 12.57 in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, which clearly indicate a drought situation worsening especially in Mwingi North Sub-County. However the situation is expected to improve with the current rains being experienced across the county

Two production indicators and all access indicator are within the normal ranges for the period.

No livestock migration patterns were reported and this normal for this period of the year. Following the onset of rains and subsequent regeneration of pastures in mixed farming livelihood zone, the body conditions of animals are gradually improving and currently are within the normal ranges for the period. Finally, Milk production is above normal range and consumption is below long term average and normal ranges for the period. Since both biophysical and production indicators are outside normal ranges, the EW phase in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood is in alarm with an improving trend while the Mixed farming livelihood zone is in alert and improving due to the rains being received in these areas.

Drought risks are medium in the rains received during the month and those expected in December will mitigate in the short term the current drought situation. However, drought risks might increase considerably if no significant rains are received in the next one month, with a worsening alarm scenario developing. In view of the current alert situation, it is necessary to promptly activate the county drought contingency plans especially in support to livestock production.

Early Warning Phase Classification

LIVELIHOOD ZONE

EW PHASE

TRENDS

MIXED FARMING

ALERT IMPROVING

MARGINAL MIXED FARMING

ALERT IMPROVING

COUNTY ALERT IMPROVING

Drought risk Low √Medium High

Biophysical Indicators Value Normal ranges

% of average rainfall (Jun-Nov)

69 80-120

SPI-3month (TAMSAT) -0.19 -1 to 1

VCI-3month (Entire county) 26.98 35-50

VCI-3month (Mwingi North Sub county)

12.57 35-50

State of Water Sources 5 5

Production indicators Value Normal ranges

Livestock Migration Pattern Normal Normal

Livestock Body Conditions 4 4-5

Milk Production (in ml) 172.5 165

Livestock deaths (for drought)

No death No death

Crops area planted (%) NA % of LTA

Access Indicators Value Normal ranges

Terms of Trade (ToT) 0.36 0.47

Milk Consumption (in ml) 150 600

Utilization indicators Value Normal ranges

MUAC 9 12

Coping Strategy Index (CSI) 1.3 1.1

NOVEMBER 2014 EW PHASE

Current Drought Risk Low Medium High

▲

The onset of short rains is projected to improve the food security situation in the county in the next three months.

2

BIO-PHASYCAL INDICATORS

1. MEASURING DROUGHT HAZARD

1.1. METEOROLOGICAL DROUGHT 1.1.1 Actual Rainfall

The county experienced a late onset of rains during the first dekad of the month of November. Both temporal and

spatial distribution varied across livelihood zones with Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone receiving heavy

downpours in Mwingi north (Tharaka Agricultural office Rainfall station, 286 mm in six days) and less rainfall in

Kitui South(Mutha Assistant County Coordinators office rain gauge, 22.6mm in 8days). In the Mixed farming

Livelihood Zone the number of wet dates ranged between eight to 15 days (Migwani Town Agriculture office 202mm

in 14 days, Kanyangi town station 166.6mm in 12 days and Mbitini Agric. Office rain gauge 196.2mm in 11 days).

Towards the end of the month the weather was cloudy with sunny intervals during the day. Compared to the LTA the

amount of rainfall received was below normal as indicated in the Figure 1 below.

Rainfall station data:

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2006-2013 42.5 15.6 52.4 119. 9.1 3.1 0 1 0 52.3 187. 81.6

Year 2013 18.9 0 77 140 0 0 0 0 0 0 15.5 84.2

Year 2014 0 55.3 64.1 85.5 0 0 0 0 0 23.4 141.

-50

0

50

100

150

200

Am

ou

nt

in m

m

Month

Rainfall Performance- Mwingi Central Station

Source: MAWI Kitui

Figure 1 Rainfall Performance

The rainfall data for the last six-month period (Jun-November 2014) show a significant deficit. The cumulative

rainfall in the six month period amounts to only 165.2mm against the long term rainfall average for the same period

amounting to 239.4mm. This is only 69% of the average rainfall for period (or an absolute deficit of 74.2mm)

The figure below indicates a 3 month Standard Precipitation Index (SPI) up to the month of November is below

average but within the thresholds of -1 to 1. The index improved in the month of November to stand at -0.19 which is

below average but within the thresholds. For Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone (Mwingi North Sub County)

the SPI is at -0.37 which is below average. The SPI further confirms rainfall deficit from normal in some parts of the

county.

3

1.2 AGRICULTURAL DROUGHT

1.2.1 VEGETATION CONDITION INDEX (VCI)

Below are the MODIS satellite derived images depicting the aggregated 3-month VCI for period Jan-Nov 2014. From

the image it appears quite evident a deficit in vegetation condition in the Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone in

Mwingi North, Mwingi Central, Kitui East and Mwingi West Sub Counties.

The VCI-3month (Aug-Oct 2014) for the entire Kitui County is equal to 26.98 which is moderate drought. However

the vegetation status is much worse in the Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone, with the lowest VCI 3-month

recorded in Mwingi North Sub-County amounting to 12.57 in the band corresponding to severe drought. The index is

much better in the Mixed farming livelihood with the highest value recorded in Kitui Rural Sub County

recording a VCI value of 42.94 which is the category of no drought.

Threshold for VCI 3-month and related drought categories

Color VCI values Drought category

3-monthly average

≥50 Wet

35-50 No Drought

21 to 34 Moderate Drought

10 to 20 Severe Drought

4

1.2.2 Field Observations (Pasture and Browse Conditions)

Both quality and quantity of natural vegetation and pasture is improving. Lush grass is available across all livelihood

zones and the rate of regeneration of shrubs is high and the ranged from fair to good. More luxuriant regeneration was

observed in Kitui Central Sub County, and Sections of Kitui East(Mbitini and Kisasi areas) where rains began in

October.

1.3 HYDROLOGICAL DROUGHT

1.3.1 Water Resource

The main water sources during the month were traditional river wells, pans and dams and Natural Rivers at 26%, 26%

and 20% respectively as shown in the figure below. In terms of period of use, coomutnity interviews indicated that

during the first dekad communities in some sections of Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone relied on water

from boreholes before those with roof catchment structures switched to them upon the onset of rains. Traditional river

wells were most relied upon due to their close proximity to the communities and water is free. Water from permanent

and seasonal rivers was available and accessible to communities living near Rivers and streams. Many open water

surface facilities have recharged across the livelihood zones and thus water was also available in rock catchments,

shallow wells, springs and natural ponds.

Pans & Dams

26%

Traditional

River Wells

26%

Natural Rivers

20%

Rock

Catchments

9%

Natural

Ponds

6%

Shallow

wells

4%Boreholes

0%Others

9%

Water Sources

Source: NDMA data

State of water sources in Marginal mixed farming livelihood zone (October 2014)

INDEX STATE OF WATER SOURCE DESCRIPTION

5 Normal The water situation is normal for the period

SOCIO-ECONOMIC INDICATORS

2.0 PRODUCTION INDICATORS

2.1 Livestock Production

2.1.1 Livestock Body Condition

Generally, the body condition for cattle ranged from fair to poor while that of goats was good. The body condition for

livestock is expected to improve due to improving condition of browse and pasture. The current livestock body

condition is moderate; neither fat nor thin and this situation corresponds approximately to a body condition score of 5

(Normal/alert)

5

2.1.2 Livestock Migration Patterns

No unusual in and out migration were reported and this is normal at this time of the year

2.1.3 Livestock Diseases No major livestock disease outbreak were reported

2.1.4 Milk Production

Milk production per household rose by 2% in November compared to the previous month. Most of the milk produced

during the month was from goats. The current production of 172.5ml per day is below year 2013 average of 262.5ml

per day and above long term average of 165ml per day respectively but overall the trend is normal as indicated in

figure below

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2010-2013 34 55 32 51 50 61 52 26 23 18 22 30

Year 2013 73 69 65 71 56 56 52 46 39 34 35 75

Year 2014 66 54 57 63 77 60 50 41 34 21 23

0102030405060708090

% 7

50

ml p

er

day

Month

Household Milk Production- Kitui County

Figure 2 Milk Production, Source NDMA Data

2.1.5 Livestock deaths

No unusual livestock deaths reported

2.2 Rain fed Crop Production Date of planting and area planted

During the month farmers were: replanting areas whose seeds rot, undertaking wet planting during the first week of

the month and late planting towards the end of the month. In the few areas were the early planted crop managed to

germinate beans have developed the second set of leaves while maize has attained 30 centimetres height. In others the

crop had just germinated and is in good health.

ACCESS INDICATORS

3.1 Livestock prices 3.1.1 Livestock Terms of Trade

Terms of trade d rose by 4% from a value of 32% in October to 36% in November, The current value is lower

compared to a similar period in 2013 and long term average as shown in the Figure 3 below

6

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2007-2013 36 36 38 34 35 40 40 45 45 45 47 42

Year 2013 39 25 30 29 35 29 32 33 38 38 45 40

Year 2014 40 38 34 37 46 43 41 35 36 32 36

05

101520253035404550

Pe

rce

nta

ge

Month

Cereal:Meat Price Ratio/Purchasing Power-Kitui County

Figure 3 Purchasing Power

3.1.2 Cattle prices

The average household price of cattle declined by 11.2% to stand at Kshs.27,325 from Kshs24,625 last month.

However, the prices varied across livelihood zones with better prices being reported in Marginal mixed farming

livelihood zone of kshs.38, 750 and Kshs.16,000 in Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone. Notably, during this period not

many household engaged in selling cattle since schools were closing and the need to raise huge amounts of money

was less.The current price is higher than the LTA and similar period in 2013 as shown in the figure 4 below.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Base Year 2009-2013 14,987 17,782 16,363 17,794 19,197 20,226 19,798 18,476 15,958 16,853 18,154 18,792

2,013 21,143 26,776 30,099 29,342 27,509 37,288 36,667 27,209 23,038 29,919 30,000 30,517

2014 32,138 28,350 33,426 29,336 28,250 29,417 29,584 29,584 28,396 24,625 27,375

-5,000

10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000

Pri

ce

pe

r h

ea

d i

n K

sh

s

Month

Average Price of Cattle- Kitui County

Figure 4 Cattle Price

3.1.3 Goat prices

The average household price of goats declined to Kshs. 2,659 from Kshs.2, 800 last month. Prices were higher in

Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone at Kshs.2,758 per goat with some areas reporting low price of compared

to Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone where price ranged from 2,500 to 2756. Farmers engaged in selling

goats to raise money to buy farm inputs like seeds and pay for farm hands who were engaged in farm labour. The

price was less compared to the same period in 2013 but higher than LTA as shown in the figure below.

7

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Base Year

2009-20132,074 2,387 2,337 2,292 2,252 2,242 2,205 2,152 2,298 2,271 2,318 2,548

2,013 3,245 3,670 3,472 3,315 2,988 3,270 3,185 2,960 3,043 3,023 3,048 3,267

2,014 3,038 3,338 3,021 3,060 3,128 2,848 2,872 3,022 2,891 2,800 2,659

-

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

Pric

e p

er h

ea

d i

n K

sh

Month

Average Price of Goats-Kitui County

3.2 Livestock Sales

3.2.1 Cattle Sale Rate

Average sales rate for cattle rose to 1.1% from 0.8% last month. Compared to the long term average the trend is

normal but below the same period in 2013 as shown in the Figure 5 below.

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2007-2013 1.3 2 1.6 1.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 1

Year 2013 1.1 1 1.8 1.9 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.8 0.4 1.2 1.4 1.9

Year 2014 1.5 0.8 1.7 2.2 2.3 0.6 1.6 2.2 0.8 0.8 1.1

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

Sale

Rat

e

Month

Average Cattle Rate-Kitui County

Figure 5 Cattle Sale Rate

3.2.2 Goat Sale Rate

Average sales rate for goat increased to 2.5% in November from 2.4% last month. This implies that more goats were

sold in November compared to previous month. Relatively, more goats were sold in mixed farming livelihood zone

compared to marginal mixed farming livelihood zone. The current sales rate trend for goat is below normal as shown

in figure below

8

3.3 Availability of Cereals and Legumes

3.3.1 Maize

The average price of a kilo of maize remained stable at Ksh.3 per kilo as it was last month. The prices in Marginal

mixed farming Zone varied form Ksh 29 in Mwingi to Ksh 33 in rural areas of Kitui South and Kitui East Sub county

while in Mixed farming Livelihood Zones, price ranged between Ksh 30 and 34. The trend is below normal compared

to the LTA and same period in 2013 as indicated the figure below.

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Base Year 2009-2013 31.2 29.7 29.4 30.5 32.8 33.3 33.2 32.3 32 32.6 33.3 32.5

2013 39 34 33.5 33 32 33 32.5 33.5 34.5 37.5 38 37.5

2014 37 36.5 36.5 36.5 37.5 39.5 39 36 34 32 32

05

1015202530354045

Pric

e p

er k

ilo

in

Ksh

Month

Average Price of a Kilo of Maize-Kitui County

3.3.2 Beans

The average price of a kilo of beans increased by six percent to Kshs.76 from Kshs.72.5 last month. The prices in both

Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.77 and Kshs.75 per kilo respectively. The

rise in price is attributed to increase in demand during the planting season. The trend is below normal compared to the

LTA and the same period in 2013 as indicated in the figure below

9

JAN FEB MAR APR MAY JUN JUL AUG SEPT OCT NOV DEC

Base Year 2009-2013 59.9 61.3 63.7 66.8 69.8 70.8 68.9 68.9 69.4 70.9 73.5 67.4

2013 64 58.5 62 69 71 71 71 73.5 75 76 86 72

2014 73 76 78 80 81 80 77 75 72.5 72.5 76

0102030405060708090

100P

ric

e i

n K

shs

Month

Average Price Per Kilo of Beans-Kitui County

3.3.3 Green grams

The average household green grams prices rose to Kshs.137 per kilo in November from Kshs.106 in October. The

prices in both Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were Kshs.137 and Kshs.136 per kilo

respectively. The sharp rise in prices has been attributed to high demand for planting seeds during the planting season.

The rise in price is above normal at this time of the year as shown in the figure below.

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2009-2013 67 66 66 72 67 68 67 71 75 84 84 86

Year 2013 54 54 46 54 46 53 52 53 49 66 70 72

Year 2014 56 69 79 85 82 81 66 61 81 106 137

020406080

100120140160

Pric

e pe

r ki

lo in

ksh

Month

Average price of green grams- Kitui County

Source: NDMA Data

3.4 Access to food and water 3.4.1 Availability of milk for household consumption

The average household milk consumption remained at 150ml per household per day in November as it was during the

previous month and this is below normal compared to LTA and year 2013 range as seen in figure below

10

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2007-2013 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.8 0.9

Year 2013 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.6

Year 2014 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.2

00.20.40.60.8

11.21.41.6

Co

nsu

mp

tio

n in

75

0m

l bo

ttle

Month

Average household milk consumption-Kitui County

Source: NDMA Data

3.4.2 Availability of water for household consumption

3.4.2.1 Household access and utilization

The average walking distances to water points declined from 4.1km to 2.7km. The marginal mixed farming and mixed

farming livelihood zones posted an average walking distance of 2.4km and 3km respectively. The distances were high

compared to the LTA and similar period in 2013 as indicated in the figure below.

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2007-2013 2.5 2.8 3.1 2.8 3.4 3.4 4 4 4.3 3.8 1.9 1.7

Year 2013 2 2.5 2.9 2.1 2.7 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.7 4.1 2.6 2

Year 2014 2.5 3.2 3.3 2.5 3.6 4.1 4.2 4.5 4.5 4.1 2.7

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

5

kilo

me

tre

s

Month

Average Distance to Water Points

3.4.2.2 Livestock access to water

The average grazing distances to water points declined to 2.6km from 3.9km last month. The marginal mixed farming

and mixed farming livelihood zones posted average grazing distances of 2km and 3.1km respectively. The decline in

distances is mainly attributed to availability and access to water and forage at the normal grazing field following the

onset of rains that has recharged water facilities and regenerated growth and development of pastures across the

county. Relatively, current average grazing distances are above long term mean and to a similar period in 2013 as

shown in the figure below.

11

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2010-2013 2.4 2.6 3.1 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.7 4 4.1 3.9 1.7 1.8

Year 2013 2 2.3 2.7 1.9 2.5 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.4 3.7 2.4 1.8

Year 2014 2.3 2.8 2.9 2.3 3.2 3.7 3.8 4 4 3.9 2.6

00.5

11.5

22.5

33.5

44.5

kilo

me

tre

s

Month

Average Grazing Distance

UTILIZATION INDICATORS

4.1 Health and Nutrition Status

4.1.1 MUAC

The number of children at risk of malnutrition rose to 9% in November from 8% last month. The average rate was at

8.9% in both the Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones respectively. This attributed to decline

in availability and access to nutritious food. The current level of malnutrition (Number of children with

MUAC

12

4.2.3 Casual Labour

This was the main source of income for the community accounting for approximately 50% of the income for the

month. Labour opportunities were available in during the planting season as farm hands and engagement in weeding.

The average wage rate was Ksh.210 with Mixed farming livelihood zone recording a wage rate of Ksh 246 per day

compared to Ksh 174 in Marginal Mixed Farming Livelihood Zone..

4.2.4 Other sources

Other sources of income included, remittance (19%), Formal Employment (12%) and petty trading (11%)

Casual Labour50%

Remmitance19%

Formal Employment

12%

Petty trade11%

Charcoal4%

Gifts1%

Sale of livestock3%

Source of Income-Kitui County

4.3 Coping Strategy

4.3.1 Coping Strategy Index

The coping strategy index declined to 1.2% in November from 1.3% last month. The coping strategy index in both

Marginal mixed farming and Mixed farming livelihood zones were 1.4% and 1% respectively.

The index is above normal compared to similar period in 2013 and long term average as shown in figure below

J F M A M J J A S O N D

Mean (2007-2013 1 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2

Year 2013 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.8 1 1.1 1.1 1

Year 2014 0.9 0.7 0.8 1 1.1 1 1.2 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2

0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

Ind

ex

Month

Coping Strategy Index- Kitui County

5.0 Current Intervention Measures and Recommendations

13

5.1 Ongoing Non food interventions

Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes

Repair of roads

Outpatient Therapeutic Programme (OTP)

Provision of fuel subsidy

Water trucking

5.2 Ongoing Food interventions

Cash distribution for PRRO programme

Supplementary feeding program

School feeding programme

Relief seed distribution.

6.0 Recommendations

Promotion small holder horticultural production through development of irrigation infrastructure.

Repair of soil and water conservation/water harvesting structures and integrated soil fertility management

Repair and rehabilitation of key strategic Community boreholes.

Livestock breed improvement. De-worming, vaccination and treatment of livestock against notifiable

diseases

Enhanced sensitization to the community on how to practice good hygiene standards.

Distribution and replacement of worn out rain gauges