Early Warning Systems

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Thought of the Day

• Tie the knot…… and leave it at God’s Will

Hadith

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TermsAdaptationActions taken to help communities and ecosystems cope with changing climate conditionsCapacity buildingProcess of developing the technical skills, institutional capability, and personnel.CycloneAn atmospheric closed circulation rotating counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern Hemisphere.EarthquakesEarthquakes are due to a sudden release of stresses accumulated around the faults in the Earth’s crust. This energy is released through seismic waves that travel from the origin zone, which cause the ground to shake. Severe earthquakes can affect buildings and populations.

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Terms

DeforestationThe direct human-induced conversion of forested land to non-forested land.DroughtsA period of abnormally dry weather sufficiently prolonged for the lack of water to cause serious hydrologic imbalance in the affected area.False AlarmIn the context of Early Warning Systems, a false alarm is defined as the situation in which an alarm is activated when it should not have been.Floods An overflow of water onto normally dry land. Floods are often triggered by severe storms, tropical cyclones, and tornadoes.

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TermsMissed AlarmIn the context of Early Warning Systems, a missed alarm is defined as the situation in which an alarm is not activated when it should have been.MitigationThe lessening or limitation of the adverse impacts of hazards and related disasters.TsunamiA tsunami is a series of ocean waves generated by sudden displacements in the sea floor, landslides, or volcanic activity.Volcanic eruptions Volcanic eruptions may be mild, releasing steam and gases or lava flows, or they can be violent explosions that release ashes and gases into the atmosphere.

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The Hyogo Framework for Action

The Hyogo Framework for Action (ISDR 2005), which was adopted by the World Conference on Disaster Reduction in Hyogo, Japan in 2005, identified five priority areas:

1. Ensure that disaster risk reduction (DRR) is a national and local priority with a strong institution basis for implementation; 2. Identify, assess and monitor disaster risks and enhance early warning; 3. Better knowledge management for building a culture of safety; 4. Reducing the underlying risk factors; and 5. Enhance preparedness for an effective response

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Monitoring

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Earth ObservationEarth Observation, through measuring and monitoring, provides an insight and understanding into Earth’s complex processes and changes. EO include measurements that can be made directly or by sensors in-situ or remotely (i.e. satellite remote sensing, aerial surveys, land or ocean-based monitoring systems) to provide key information to models or other tools to support decision making processes.

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Early Warning System

The set of capacities needed to generate and disseminate timely and meaningful warning information to enable individuals, communities and organizations threatened by a hazard to prepare and to act appropriately and in sufficient time to reduce the possibility of harm or loss.

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Effective Early Warning Systems • extending the lead time of warnings• improving the accuracy of warnings• greater demand for probabilistic

forecasts• better communication and

dissemination of warnings• using new techniques to alert the

public• targeting of the warning services to

relevant and specific users (right information to right people at right time and right place)

• warning messages are understood and the appropriate action taken in response.

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Prerequisites for an Effective Warning Service

Focus on the User• Identify the users• The hazards community• Weather-sensitive

economic sectors• Media (print, radio, TV

and others)• The public

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Effective Warning Program

• Receive the warning• Understand the

information presented • Believe the information • Personalize the

information • Make correct decisions • Respond in a timely

manner

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People Centered Early Warning Systems

• Risk Knowledge • Monitoring and

Warning Service • Dissemination and

Communication • Response Capability

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Meteoalarms

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MétéoFrance Cartes de Vigilence for the heat wave

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Adapting Good Practices in EWS in Developing Countries

Nowcasting• capacity to provide

nowcasts• forecasts for the

following few hours• analysis and

extrapolation of weather systems

• observed on radar, satellites and in situ sensors

T+60 minute thunderstorm nowcasting generated by BJANC (WMO 2010)

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Existing Early Warning Systems

• Tsunami• Wildfires• El Niño phenomenon• Desert locust plague• Landslides• Floods/Urban flash floods• Drought and famine• Volcanic eruption• Typhoons and hurricanes• Earthquakes

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Timeliness of Early Warning Systems

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Environmental Impact Assessment

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Implementation Plan

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Effective Warning

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Institutional Design Option for Government Provision of Early Warning

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Japan’s Early Warning System• Japan invested in public alert system

after 1995, 6.9 Kobe earthquake• Seven years and $500 million later,

Japan unveiled world's first early warning network.

• The Japanese got their big test in March when a massive quake hit off the northeast coast and spawned a tsunami.

• A public emergency announcement was sent out eight seconds after sensors detected the first inkling of the quake, interrupting regular TV and radio programming, and buzzing cell phones.

• Millions received 5 to 40 seconds of warning depending on how far they were from the epicenter. Tokyo — about 230 miles away — got about 10 to 30 seconds of notice before high-rises swayed. A dozen trains were stopped in their tracks without derailing.Japanese early warning system saved thousands of lives.

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Earthquake Tsunami Warning System

• new earthquake alert system

• ocean-based tsunami warning system

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Examples of Response to an Earthquake Early Warning

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Limitations of the Earthquake Early Warning

• TimingFrom seconds to tens of seconds

• False alarms• Magnitude estimation• Seismic intensity

estimation

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Landslides

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Landslides

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Landslides

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Flood Warning System

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Digital Elevation Modeling (DEM)

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Deep-ocean Assessment and Reporting of Tsunamis (DART)

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Wildfires

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Famine in Africa• The crisis had been predicted over a

year before, and many dedicated professionals did as much as they could to persuade their agencies and others to respond in order to prevent the worst of the crisis, but too little was done too late.

• First things first. The most fundamental duty of any government is to provide its citizens with basic protection from physical threat and extreme deprivation, whether from war, criminal violence, or natural disaster. Everything else should come second.

• The experience of Somalia is a stark demonstration of the strengths and limits of the international humanitarian community to mobilize for early action based on early warning information.

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Human Health Consequences of Climate Change

1. Asthma, Respiratory Allergies, and Airway Diseases

2. Cancer3. Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke4. Foodborne Diseases and Nutrition5. Heat-Related Morbidity and

Mortality 6. Human Developmental Effects7. Mental Health and Stress-Related

Disorders8. Neurological Diseases and Disorders9. Vectorborne and Zoonotic Diseases10. Waterborne Diseases 11. Weather-Related Morbidity and

Mortality

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What are future global shocks?

• a rapid onset event with severely disruptive consequences covering at least two continents.

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Critical Infrastructure Interdependancies

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Global Shocks

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Key Capacities for Governance of Future Global Shocks

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Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN)

• The prototype GPHIN system was developed in 1997 in partnership with the World Health Organization (WHO)

• GPHIN's mission is to be an indispensable source of early warning for potential public health threats worldwide including chemical, biological, radiological and nuclear (CBRN).

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Global Public Health Intelligence Network (GPHIN)

• Animal Diseases• Human diseases • Plant diseases • Biologics • Natural disasters• Chemical incidents • Radioactive incidents • Unsafe products

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Global Environmental Burden of Disease

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Thank You