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1 J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference Rob Knight, CFO March 6, 2013 2 Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions, future trends in commodity markets, and financial returns; its business strategy for the upcoming year and drivers for growth; and its plans to improve productivity with capital investments. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts. Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC). Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

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Page 1: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

1

J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference Rob Knight, CFO – March 6, 2013

2

Cautionary Information This presentation and related materials contain statements about the Corporation’s future that are not

statements of historical fact, including specifically the statements regarding the Corporation’s expectations with respect to general economic conditions, future trends in commodity markets, and financial returns; its business strategy for the upcoming year and drivers for growth; and its plans to improve productivity with capital investments. These statements are, or will be, forward-looking statements as defined by the Securities Act of 1933 and the Securities Exchange Act of 1934. Forward-looking statements also generally include, without limitation, information or statements regarding: projections, predictions, expectations, estimates or forecasts as to the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ business, financial, and operational results, and future economic performance; and management’s beliefs, expectations, goals, and objectives and other similar expressions concerning matters that are not historical facts.

Forward-looking statements should not be read as a guarantee of future performance or results, and will not necessarily be accurate indications of the times that, or by which, such performance or results will be achieved. Forward-looking information, including expectations regarding operational and financial improvements and the Corporation’s future performance or results are subject to risks and uncertainties that could cause actual performance or results to differ materially from those expressed in the statement. Important factors, including risk factors, could affect the Corporation’s and its subsidiaries’ future results and could cause those results or other outcomes to differ materially from those expressed or implied in the forward-looking statements. Information regarding risk factors and other cautionary information are available in the Corporation’s Annual Report on Form 10-K for 2012, which was filed with the SEC on February 8, 2013. The Corporation updates information regarding risk factors if circumstances require such updates in its periodic reports on Form 10-Q and its subsequent Annual Reports on Form 10-K (or such other reports that may be filed with the SEC).

Forward-looking statements speak only as of, and are based only upon information available on, the date the statements were made. The Corporation assumes no obligation to update forward-looking information to reflect actual results, changes in assumptions or changes in other factors affecting forward-looking information. If the Corporation does update one or more forward-looking statements, no inference should be drawn that the Corporation will make additional updates with respect thereto or with respect to other forward-looking statements. References to our website are provided for convenience and, therefore, information on or available through the website is not, and should not be deemed to be, incorporated by reference herein.

Page 2: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

3

Portland

Los Angeles

Calexico

Seattle

Brownsville

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Nogales El Paso

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Kansas City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Fastest Growing States

Ports

Borders & Interchange

C

To/From Asia

Portla

Oaklala

To/From Asia

To Europe, South America

and Africa

Industrial 16%

Agricultural 19%

Chemicals 15%

asosEagle Pass Laredo

Dallas

Eastport

a

Industrialllllll 16%

Agricuuuuuuultltltltltlturuuuuuuu al19%

ChChChChChemememememicicicicici alaallaaalss15%%

Intermodal 20%

Coal 20%

Autos 9%

Industrial 18%

Agricultural 17%

Chemicals 16%

Freight Revenue $19.7B in 2012

• Diverse Business Mix • Fastest Growing States • Broad Port Access • Interchange Traffic &

Border Crossings

The Strength of a Unique Franchise

4

2004* 2012 2004* 2012

Successful Track Record 2004 to 2012

Operating Ratio 87.5%

67.8%

#1 – Industry Improvement

2004* 2012

EPS

$1.42

$8.27

ROIC

5.3%

14.0%

+25% CAGR

* 2004 adjusted for asbestos charge of $247.4 million.

-19.7 points

+8.7 points

7 Day Volume @ 184K

7 Day Volume @ 176K

Page 3: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

5

154 153 165 168 172

154 153165 168 172

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

81 82 86

88 88

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

1,922 1,351

940 725

509

Network Performance Drives Productivity Full Year

Slow Order Miles Good

All Time Record

-30%

Intermodal Boxes

Manifest Cars

*

All Time Record

Train Size (Average Units per Train)

* All Time Record

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

9.38

8.61 8.58 8.94

8.58

Car Utilization (Days) Good

-4%

All Time Record

Good

All Time Record

3%

5%

-2.5% Flat

Volume Growth

4Q12 vs. 4Q11 FY2012 vs. FY2011 South Total South Total

6

2012 Volume Drivers Vs. 2011 (Carloadings in 000s)

Shale Related

Vehicles & Parts

Intermodal Cement, Stone & Lumber

Ind Chem & Plastics

Hazard Waste

Corn & Wheat

Coal Other

85 58 51

31

(33) (46)

(293)

(10)

Crude Oil

Frac Sand

Carload Growth vs. 2011

133 FY Volumes (000s): 2012 9,048 2011 9,072 Variance (24)

Domestic

Int’l

+84% +13% +2% +12% +7% -49% -14% -14%

+3x

+28%

Vehicles

Parts

Page 4: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

7

Diverse Portfolio – Volume Drivers

*Through March 2, 2013

Chemicals

Intermodal

Coal

Ag

TOTAL

-3%

+8%

-10%

-22%

+2%

-2%

+12%

Industrial Products

Automotive

YTD 2013 Volume Growth*

• Crude Oil up 100%+

• Strong Intl Intermodal

• Pent up Vehicle Sales

• Lower Hazardous Waste, Softer Steel & Scrap Markets

YTD Drivers

1st Quarter • Ag volumes down in high

single digit range

• Coal volumes down in the high teens vs. 2012

• Impact of 2012 Leap Year Excluding Coal, volume up 4%

8

Coal Trends

Current Drivers • Mild Weather • 2013 Contract Loss

(10+ million tons) • Mine Production • Inventory Management

Southern Powder River Basin

74%

Other 13%

27,000

31,000

35,000

39,000

43,000

47,000

Volume Impact (Weekly Carloadings)

1Q 4Q

2011

2012

2Q 3Q

2013*

Longer Term Drivers + New Domestic Business + Growing Exports from

~8M tons in 2012 to 16M tons by 2017

+ Potential Backfill to Eastern Markets

Uncertainties - Plant Retirements - Natural Gas Prices

*Through March 2, 2013

Page 5: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

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Our Strong Value Proposition Supports Growth Long-Term Growth Drivers

• Population Growth • Recovery of Weak Markets

• International Trade

• Global Energy Demand

• Highway Conversions

10

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2005 2013* 2007 2009 2011

UP Wkly Carloadings

Housing Starts (mils)

Housing Trends

*Through March 2, 2013

• Housing represents ~7% to 8% of current UP volumes

• Lumber, Stone & Glass down 3,000 carloads a week, a 2% overall volume impact

• Housing also drives appliances, roofing, rebar, aggregates, and cement demand

• Including IP, Chemicals & Intermodal, return to normal could add volume growth opportunity of ~5%

Lumber, Stone & Glass

1QTD 2013 Lumber up

16%

‘04

Page 6: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

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International Trade

• Diverse Franchise Creates Opportunity Throughout Economic Cycles

• Off-shoring/Near-shoring of U.S. Manufacturing

• Demand for Grain and Food

• Low Natural Gas Prices Favor U.S. Plastics Production

• Demand for U.S. Raw Materials

Domestic 69%

Other Imports

12%

Other Exports

9%

5% – Mexico Imports

2012 Freight Revenue

UP International Trade Revenue ($6B)

5% – Mexico Exports

Grain Products – 4%

Wheat – 3%

International Intermodal

44%

Vehicles & Parts

17% Coal – 5%

Feed Grains – 3%

Soda Ash – 3% Steel – 3% Beer – 2%

Fertilizer – 2% Minerals & Ores – 2%

Plastics – 2% Lumber – 2%

Other – 8%

12

UP Positioned for Mexico Growth Opportunities Strong Investments – Foreign and Domestic

Ferromex (FXE) KCSM Ferrosur (FSRR)

UP Interchange Points

New Industrial Investment

'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12

708 764 776 743

600

750 817

857

Volume Growth (Carloads in Thousands)

+5%

Ports

2012 Business Mix (In Carloads)

Audi - $1.3B

Agricultural 14%

Autos 45%

Intermodal 24% Industrial

10%

Chemicals 6%

Coal 1%

+9%

Source: Public Announcements

Page 7: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

13

Portland

Los Angeles

Seattle

Houston New Orleans

Twin Cities

Duluth

Oakland Omaha

Denver Salt Lake City

Chicago

Memphis

St. Louis

Borders & Interchange

Industrial 16%

Dallas

Eastport

Industrial 17%

Distribution Centers/Ports (UP Owned/Leased and Private)

Assembly Centers (UP served and in Mexico)

Kansas City

Union Pacific Connecting NAFTA Markets Automotive

2003-2007 Avg.

2017E

16.6

14.4

16.6

U.S. Vehicle Sales* (MM)

* February 2013 Global Insight

2012

2005 2017E

1.6

2.9

3.9

2012

Mexico Auto Production* (MM)

14

Permian Basin

Marcellus

Eagle Ford

Niobrara

Bakken

Canadian Oil Sands

Current UP Origins Current UP Destinations Connecting Railroad Origins

Utica

Haynesville Barnett

$114 Brent

$114 Brent

$114 Brent

$116 LLS

$81

$83

$89

Crude prices as of 2/22/13 Source: Plains Posting & Argus Research

Union Pacific Crude-by-Rail

$102

Page 8: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

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• Substantial oil industry investment in rail – $1 + Billion in rail terminals – 20,000 new tank cars in service

• Rail advantages – Market flexibility – Faster transit time – Faster permitting and construction – Scalable with lower capital cost

Shale Energy and Rail Sustainability

• Shale production will continue to exceed pipeline capacity • UP Crude > 300K bpd in Feb 2013

16

Shreveport

Ft. Worth

Dallas

Houston New Orleans

San Antonio

Brownsville

Ethylene Plants New Plant/Expansions

Expanding Chemical Franchise Texas/Louisiana Investments

Formosa Plastics Corp. • >$1.7 Billion investment in cracker

and additional capacity projects. • Cracker capacity: 800,000 mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016

Dow Chemical Co. • $1.7 Billion investment in cracker

and additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017

Chevron Phillips Chemical Co. • $5 Billion investment in cracker &

additional capacity projects. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2017

k

Gruppo Mossi & Ghisolfi • Investment in new PET & PTA plants. • Capacity: 1.0 & 1.2 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2014

Source: Public Announcements

Exxon Mobil Corp. • Investment in steam cracker. • Total capacity: 1.5 million mt/year • Estimated completion in 2016

Page 9: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

17

Intermodal: Highway Conversions

• Comprehensive & Integrated Intermodal Network

• Strong Value Proposition: – Competitive Service at an

Affordable Price – Innovative Solutions – Environmental Friendliness

• Truck’s Traditional Advantage is Eroding – Regulations & Rising Costs – Highway Congestion &

Infrastructure

• Capacity Available for Growth

Domestic Volume (Qtr-over-Qtr Volume Growth)

1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q 1Q 2Q 3Q 4Q

1% 0%

2% 3%

6%

3%

1%

4%

2011 2012

18

Investment Supports Intermodal Growth

Utilizing a systematic, structured approach to add capacity and improve service

Recent Intermodal Terminal Investments

5 New Terminals Completed 3 Terminal Expansions 1 New Terminal Under Construction 1 Interchange Gateway

Over $1.2 Billion Intermodal Terminal Investment since 2000

on

Terminal Investment since 2000

Page 10: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

19

Pricing Opportunity Strong Fundamentals Continue

2014 $100

2016 $100

• Value is the Key to Future Price Improvement

• Value/Service Gains Support Narrowing Discount to Truck

• New Business Supports Margin Improvement

• Balanced Portfolio Provides Flexibility for Repricing as Value Grows

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

6% 6%

4.5% 5% 4.5%

Core Pricing Gains

4.5%

20222222 14$1$ 00

20222222222 16$100

Contracts > 1 Year

40% Contracts < 1 Year 30%

Tariffs 30%

Balanced Revenue Portfolio

20

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2017

79.3 77.4

76.1

70.6 70.7

67.8 190

180

152

172 176.5 176

Raising the Bar – “Sub 65” Operating Ratio

Operating Ratio (Percent)

Sub-65

Now Targeting Sub 65% FY Operating

Ratio by 2017

Achieve high end of 2010

guidance sooner

than 2015

2010 Guidance: 65% - 67% FY Operating Ratio by 2015

7-Day Volume (000s)

Page 11: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

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2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Est

$3.1

$2.5 $2.5

$3.2

$3.7 ~$3.6

10.2%

Capital Investments Supported by Returns

• Improved Profitability Drives Strong Cash Flow

• … Supports Investments that must meet high return hurdles

• … Supports Core Pricing that Drives Continued Investment

• Capital Spend to ~16% - 17% of Revenue for 2013 - 2017

ROIC*

Investments* & Returns** (Capital in Billions)

12.4%

** See Union Pacific website under Investors for a reconciliation to GAAP.

14.0%

New Locomotive Purchases/Leases

Base Capital

Positive Train Control

* Includes cash capital, leases and other non-cash capital.

$3.15(excl PTC)

22

Delivering Value to Shareholders

Cumulative Share Repurchases ($ In Billions)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$1.6 $1.6

$2.9

$4.3

$5.8

2/28/13

Stock Price Performance

12/31/07

UP

S&P 500

118%

3%

Future Allocation

Declared Dividends Per Share

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

$0.745 $0.98 $1.08

$1.31

$1.93

$2.49 +3x

Page 12: J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference · 2 Cautionary Information ... Audi - $1.3B Agricultural 14% Autos 45% Intermodal Industrial 24% 10% Chemicals 6% Coal 1%

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Union Pacific – A Promising Future

• Market-Based Pricing at Reinvestible Levels

• Focus on Productivity, Efficiency, and Innovation

• Leverage Strengths of Diverse Franchise

• Invest to Strengthen and Enhance Network

• Drive Increased Profitability & Shareholder Returns

24

J.P. Morgan Aviation, Transportation & Defense Conference Question & Answer Session