jorge máttar director a. i. eclac méxico
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The future of export led growth: is the financial crisis revealing its limits?: Latin America and the Caribbean. Carnegie Endowment for International Peace 29 June 2009. Jorge Máttar Director a. i. ECLAC México. Contents. - PowerPoint PPT PresentationTRANSCRIPT
The future of export led growth: is the financial crisis revealing its limits?:Latin America and the Caribbean
Jorge Máttar
Director a. i.
ECLAC México
Carnegie Endowment for International Peace
29 June 2009
1. Background: from import substitution to export promotion.
2. Trade and output perfomance.
3. Impact of the international crisis in LAC.
4. Final remarks and perspectives.
Contents
LAC exports growth is comparable to SEA.From 1990 X growth in LAC is the fastest
Average annual growth rates of exports, 1980-2006
Source: WB
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Área del euro América Latinay el Caribe
Sudeste deAsia
Áfricasubsahariana
Mundo
LAC: two-digit growth rates of exports after 1990, but imports are more dynamic
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
16.0
18.0
Argentina Brasil Chile Costa Rica El Salvador México Rep.Dominicana
Exportaciones Importaciones
Average annual growth rates, 1990-2008
And economic growth has not been as high as it was expected
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Arg
entina
Bra
sil
Chile
Colo
mbia
Costa
Ric
a
El S
alv
ador
Guate
mala
Méxic
o
Nic
ara
gua
Rep.
Dom
inic
ana
Fuente: CEPAL, los datos del PIB están en dólares constantes
Average annual growth rates of GDP, 1990-2007
Xs are more dynamic than GDP…until mid 2000s: the end of X-led growth?
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
14.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
-1.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
7.0
Exportaciones PIB
Annual growth rate
Note that trends are very influenced by Mexico´s trade performance.
Current situation and perspectives
• International crisis already affecting LAC international trade.
• Effects depend on macroeconomic strengths (fiscal, monetary, Xrate, foreign debt), trade patterns and modalities of insertion into the world economy:– Trade: goods, services, even labor.– FDI.– Integration; regional cooperation, open regionalism.
The exposure to trade varies in LAC
Degree of openness (X/GDP)
0.0
10.0
20.0
30.0
40.0
50.0
60.0
70.0
1985: Xs/PIB
2005: Xs/PIB
Source ECLAC. Exports includes only goods.
World trade will fall in 2009: the effect is not the same in LAC
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: Canasta de exportaciones de bienes, 2006
(En porcentajes)
45,2
25,3
44,4
74,1
14,8
54,8
74,7
55,6
25,9
85,2
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AméricaLatina y el
Caribe
Américadel Sur
Centro-américa
México El Caribe
Manufacturas Productos básicos
71,5
35,444,1
90,5
61,9
28,5
64,655,9
9,5
38,1
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
AméricaLatina y el
Caribe
América delSur
Centro-américa
México El Caribe
Países desarrollados Economías emergentes
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: Distribución geográfica de las exportaciones de manufacturas,
2006(En porcentajes)
… the same at the country level…
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
Paraguay
El Salvador
Guatemala
Panamá
Brasil
Argentina
Uruguay
Colombia
Bolivia
Nicaragua
Perú
Honduras
Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Costa Rica
Chile
Ecuador
México
Países desarrollados Países en desarrollo
0 5 10 15 20
Panamá
Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Guatemala
Paraguay
Nicaragua
El Salvador
Argentina
Colombia
Ecuador
Uruguay
Bolivia
Brasil
Perú
Chile
Honduras
Costa Rica
México
Primarios Manufacturas
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES SEGÚN DESTINO, 2006 En porcentajes del PIB
EXPORTACIONES DE BIENES HACIA PAÍSES DESARROLLADOS, 2006
En porcentajes del PIB
Terms of trade will be less favourable in South America
AMÉRICA LATINA (19): TÉRMINOS DE INTERCAMBIO, 2008-2009En tasas de variación anual
4,65,9 4,9
-7,5
20,9
-3,4
-12,8
-18,6
-7,5
-27,2
-5,3
2,82,1
-30,5-32
-28
-24
-20
-16
-12
-8
-4
0
4
8
12
16
20
24
América Latina (19 países) América del Sur (10 países) Mercosur (4 países) Chile+Perú Bolivia+Colombia+Ecuador+Venezuela (Rep. Bol. de)
Centroamérica (8 países) México
2008 2009(Estimaciones para 2009)
Effects on exports performance will also depend on the diversification of markets
(share of exports)Países América Latina Estados Unidos Unión Europea Asia
Argentina 40.8 16.5 13.7 13.7Brasil/1 25.5 17.7 22.5 14.6Paraguay 60.2 3.3 6.1 5.8Uruguay 36.0 19.1 17.8 7.8
Bolivia 65.6 13.5 6.3 9.4Colombia 32.6 41.6 13.6 4.3Ecuador/1 30.4 49.0 12.2 2.0Perú/1 20.4 24.7 17.6 20.9
Costa Rica 22.7 43.2 17.5 14.7El Salvador 40.5 16.6 4.3 0.5Guatemala 46.7 37.0 5.9 3.7Honduras 26.1 46.0 21.4 3.4Nicaragua 34.3 38.3 14.2 2.8
México/1 5.2 84.3 4.6 2.2República Dominicana/1/2 5.2 73.3 14.3 5.3Chile 17.3 15.7 24.8 32.5Panamá/1 18.1 40.2 31.7 6.6Venezuela 7.8 54.6 6.1 4.2Cuba 22.9 0.0 30.1 4.5
/1 El dato se refiere al promedio de los años 2005-2007, para el resto de los paises el promedio es para los años 2004-2006/2 Los datos de República Dominicana se tomaron a partir de datos espejoFuente: CEPAL
0
5
10
15
20
25
301980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
Comunidad Andina (5)
MERCOSUR
Mercado Común Centroamericano
CARICOM
América Latina y el Caribe
Fuente: CEPAL, sobre la base de cifras oficiales de los países. Los datos del Mercado Común Centroamericano excluyen las exportaciones de Maquila.
Intra-regional trade as a means to face fall in global trade?
Intra-regional trade is more intensive in manufacturing than exports to the rest of the world
(Exports structure, 2006)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
MERCOSUR CAN MCCA CARICOM MERCOSUR CAN MCCA CARICOM
Recursos naturales
Manufacturas
Comercio intrasubregional Comercio extrasubregional
Source: ECLAC.
LAC also exports labor … and remittances are falling
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
Guy
ana
Hai
tí
Hon
dura
s
Jam
aica
El S
alva
dor
Nic
arag
ua
Gua
tem
ala
Bel
ice
Bol
ivia
R. D
omin
ican
a
Ecu
ador
Gra
nada
Par
agua
y
Cos
ta R
ica
Col
ombi
a
Méx
ico
Per
ú
Chi
le
Pan
amá
Uru
guay
Arg
entin
a
Bra
sil
Ven
ezue
la
Mill
on
es
de
dó
lare
s
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
Po
rce
nta
jes
de
l PIB
Millones de dólares Porcentajes del PIB
Small economies are the most affected by fall in remittances
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: TRANSFERENCIAS CORRIENTES (CRÉDITO), 2007 En porcentajes del PIB y millones de dólares
24 423 millones
… some countries already show a sharp decline
REMESAStasas de crecimiento interanuales (%)
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
20
25
1er. trim. 2008 3do. trim. 2008 3er. trim. 2008 4to. trim. 2008
E cuado r N ica ragu a G ua te m a la E l S a lvado r R ep . D o m in ican a M é xico
Fall in tourism will be more severe for small economies in the Caribbean
0 5 10 15 20 25 30
América del SurArgentina
BoliviaBrazilChile
ColombiaEcuador
ParaguayPeru
UruguayVenezuela (R.B.)
CentroaméricaCosta RicaEl SalvadorGuatemala
HaitiHondurasNicaragua
PanamaRepublica Dominicana
MexicoCaribe
BahamasBarbados
BeliceDominicaGranadaGuyanaJamaica
San Kitts and NevisSanta Lucia
San Vincent and theSuriname
Trinidad and TobagoAmérica Latina y el Caribe
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: EXPORTACIÓN DE SERVICIOS ASOCIADOS AL TURISMO, 2007En porcentajes del PIB
40.8%
AMÉRICA LATINA Y EL CARIBE: INVERSIÓN EXTRANJERA DIRECTA NETA, 2008En porcentajes del PIB
0.70.9
1.31.3
1.61.91.9
2.32.8
3.43.5
3.84.0
5.05.1
5.46.5
7.07.8
9.514.6
15.916.0
-1.2
-2 0 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18
Venezuela
Haití
El Salvador
Paraguay
Ecuador
Argentina
Brasil
Guatemala
Bolivia
Mexico
Colombia
Nicaragua
Uruguay
Honduras
Rep. Dominicana
Peru
Chile
Costa Rica
Bahamas
Panamá
Belice
Dominica
Saint Kitts y Nevis
San Vicente y las Granadinas
Granada
Antigua y Barbuda
FDI decline will also be more significant for
small economies
21.8%24.7%
Final remarks
• X-led growth did not produce expected results in terms of GDP growth.
• Lack of policies for strengthening linkages between X and domestic production, competitiveness, other productive development polices.
• Present slump in world trade is expected to last several years =>
• LAC can no longer rely on a strategy based on X alone. A more balanced approach is needed…
Final remarks 2
• Diversify markets and product mix.• Intra-regional trade and other integration
modalities.• Domestic markets (medium and large
economies).• Innovation, competitiveness & productive
development policies.• Strengthening linkages between large and
SMI.
