JAKARTA FLOOD EARLY WARNING SYSTEM (J-FEWS)

JCP (Joint Cooperation Program) Indonesia – the Netherland

Segel GintingWanny K. Adidarma

Workshop on MCCOE Radar Meteorology /Climatology in Indonesia

BPPT, 28 Februari 2013

Flood in Jakarta

• Not a new issue;

• First report from 1640;

• Urban development on the higher grounds leaving the natural lakes as part of the urban landscape with a natural role to retain run-off during heavy downpour in the area and in the upstream areas of the rivers;

• Retention capacity: 1350 ha retention area of these lakes in 1640, presently less than half is available;

• Agricultural lands vs. housing and industrial estates;

• Irrigation system ~ drainage canals.

Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building SpecialistCollaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

The Flood Disaster Strategy

• The Department of Regional Development and Environmental of the Organisation of American States argues that

“The most effective approach to reducing the long-term impact of natural hazards is to incorporate natural hazard assessment and mitigation activities into the process of integrated development planning and investment project formulation and implementation.”

• Combinations of structural and non-structural flood mitigation measures have been shown to alleviate the effects of floods in a cost-effective way.

Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building SpecialistCollaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

The Flood Disaster Strategy

• Why not giving the disaster management approach a chance?

• Rather than ………Being drown in an ocean of muddy water, silt, garbage, and debt…

Source : Jan T.L. Yap, Capacity Building SpecialistCollaborative Knowledge Network CKNet Indonesia

Penanganan Masalah Banjir(Flood Control)

Philosophy“to keep floods away from people and people away from floods, creating harmony”

Normative Approaches

Non Structural MethodStructural method

Construction

Non Structural Method FEWS Development

RISK MANAGEMENT AGAINST CRISIS MANAGEMENT

Concept of Flood Early Warning System Using Delft-FEWS System

Detection Warning Response

Forecasting

Simulation

BMKG, PusAir, Deltares, KNMI

Some Key Questions…• Could floods and droughts be

predicted with more lead time?• Could the predictions be more

accurate?

Delft-FEWS Concept

Delft-FEWS• import• validation• transformation / interpolation• data hierarchy• general adapter• export / report• administration (data, forecasts)• viewing (data, forecasts)• archiving• …

data feeds

models

export & dessimination

Perf

orm

ance

Indi

cato

r

impo

rt

Delft-FEWS is not ModelDelft-FEWS is Open Shell for Forecasting

Source : Cart Barrett, 2011

In JFEWS to provide timely warnings to communities at risk will need:1.Rainfall monitoring, estimation and forecast à BMKG/BPPT2.Software which could combine and manage various data sources with different formats spatially or temporally à FEWS/DEWS (Deltares)3.Software which could change the rainfall to runoff, flood and inundation area or drought index à PUSAIR

Jakarta Flood Early Warning System

Radar

Telemetri

GLOBAL

Flood Forecasting

Model

Input

Output

Rainfall Radar (BBPT)

Input data for run-off analysisData Feed

Telemetry

Flood

Time

Rive

r dis

char

ge

accuration decreasesLead Time

Detections Run-off analysis Warning Response

Flood forecastingPresent condition

NWP Satellite Radar

Flood Forecasting Jakarta

Flood Forecasting JakartaWater level Katu Lampa

Famous Man

Source: BBWS Cilicis

Model Development

Jakarta-FEWSWater Level and Dishcarge

Inundation Area

Travel Time

SOBEK

SOBEK is a powerful modelling suite for floodmodelling, flood forecasting, optimisation ofdrainage systems, control of irrigation systems,sewer overflow design, river morphology, saltintrusion and surface water quality

The programs represent phenomena andphysical processes in an accurate way inone−dimensional (1D) network systems and ontwo−dimensional (2D) horizontal grids

Calculation of runoff usingSacramento model

(SOBEK-RR)

Hydrologic routing ofrunoff towards main riversystem using Muskingum

method (SOBEK-RR)

Hydraulic routing throughriver system towards sea

(SOBEK-1D)

Hydraulic routing throughfloodplain

(SOBEK-2D)

Jakarta Flood Modelling Concept

Pumps

Tidal gates

Operation

Field condition

Flood extent

scenario

Jakarta Flood Modelling

Rain and Tide Flood Simulation Output

SOBEK

Macro Drainage System of Jakarta

Jakarta Flood Modelling Schematic

SOBEK RR ModelingSacramento

Physically based conceptual model

Semi-distributed approach: catchment is divided into segments

Pembagian Sub DAS untuk Pemodelan

Hidrologi

Sub Basin : 449Weir : 22Orifice : 32Pump Station : 33

Calibration and ValidationModeling

Calibration on Flood Event 2007

Validation on Flood Event 2008

Jakarta Area Inundation Decreases : 10 %

EBC Area Inundation Decreases : 32 %

Without EBC With EBC

East Banjir Canal

Flood Modeling Update Activities

-2007: Flood Hazard Map Jakarta (FHM1)-2009: Flood Hazard Map Jakarta (FHM2)-2011: Java Coastal Dafence Strategic (JCDS)-2011: Jakarta Flood Readiness Scan (JFRS)-2012: Flood Management Information System (FMIS)

Jakarta-FEWS

Data Feed

Numerical Weather Prediction-ACCESS-A - ACCESS -T- CCAM - ECMWF Def- GFS

Satelitte-TRMMRadar

Ground Station-Telemetry station- Automatic Weather Station

- BMKG- BPPT

Seawater Level Prediction-Astronomical Tide-South China Sea Model

Remote Sensing

Seawater Level Prediction-South China Sea Model

GFS

ACCESS T

- Astronomical Tide

ECMWF

Numerical Weather Prediction

Conformal Cubic Atmospheric Model (CCAM)

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS)

Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere andoceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions. Though firstattempted in the 1920s, it was not until the advent of computer simulation in the1950s that numerical weather predictions produced realistic results. A number ofglobal and regional forecast models are run in different countries worldwide, usingcurrent weather observations relayed from radiosondes or weather satellites as inputsto the models (Wikipedia, http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/)

Global Forecast System (GFS)

Data Feed

Output JFEWSFlood Information

Rainfall Forecast from CCAM

3 days forward

Rainfall Forecast from ACCESS T

3 days forward

Rainfall Forecast from ECMWF

10 days forward

Rainfall Forecast and Monitoring

Rainfall Forecast and Monitoring

http://bedrockasia.files.wordpress.com

Spatial display: ECMWF wind forecast

http://bedrockasia.files.wordpress.com

Output: storm surge forecast

Storm surge forecast Jakarta

Discharge and Water Level Forecast

Discharge and Water Level Forecast

Radar Monitoring

Inundation Area

Thank you for your kind

attention

http://ijef-share.blogspot.com