Analyzing the shortcomings of Flood Early warning system in Pakistan

04/13/23

Students:Dawood JanIsmail KhanKiramat Ullah

Department of Civil EngineeringGandhara Institute of Science and Technology PeshawarPeshawar

Supervised By: Dr. Khurram Shehzad

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Introduction Problem statement Objective Literature review Findings of Literature Review Task accomplished On going task Timeline References

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Overflow or inundation from water body causes flood. Inundations may caused due to:▪ High rainfall▪ Snow melting▪ Failure of Dam/reservoir▪ Tsunamis

Pakistan faced 150 major disasters since 1947 in which most are floods

In July 2010 Flood, about 20 million Pakistanis affected

Inundates an area of 100,000 sq-km

2000 casualties has been recorded.[1]

Overall loss of US $ 10.05 Billions

Implementation of effective flood early warning system may save lives

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Poor early warning system for floods may increase in the damages of

the livelihoods and infrastructures.

Poor flood forecasting is also the cause of disastrous affects on the

peoples at risk.

Poor warnings may increase the post flood cost in case of urban floods.

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To investigate the shortcomings of flood

forecasting

To investigate the shortcomings of

communication of flood warning

To investigate the shortcomings of mechanism

of flood preparedness

Suggest the set of actions to enhance the

effectiveness of flood early warning system in

Pakistan04/13/23 5

APPROACH EMPLOYED FOR ISSUE OF FLOOD FORECASTS:

Collection of hydrological and meteorological data

Transmission/Communication of data to the forecasting Centres

Analysis of data and formulation of forecasts

Dissemination of forecasts and warning to the concerned Authorities of the State. Police Stations

District management group

45 PMD observatories are employed in the system, Map Attached:

Models Used By PMD for FEWS are:

Rainfall-Runoff Model SAMO

Routing Model SOBEK

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Continued….

SAMO (Sacramento) is a Rainfall-Runoff Model which conforms important phenomenon of hydrological cycle such as: Rainfall Evaporation Infiltration and Base flow

It has a small computational time interval and can analysis a watershed which has been divided into several smaller parts, each having its own parameter set of: Evaporation rate Rainfall

The rainfall of past 24 hours, recorded through telemetric stations Meteorological observatories Radar observations

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Literature ReviewAccomplished task Continued….

SOBEK include morphology of main rivers and characteristics of hydraulic structure

It is developed using: Physical description of the geometry of rivers, Continuity equation Balance of forces governing the flow of water in open channels.

It can properly represent the influence of: Bridges Barrages Dams Propagation of flood waves.

SOBEK is used to predict: Water level Discharges Extent of flooding along a river reach.

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Accomplished task

Literature ReviewContinued….

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Following are the shortcomings in the Flood forecasting:

Rainfall runoff and routing of Kabul River is not incorporated in

the Flood Early Warning System Model

The catchments of FEWS Model also do not tally with the radar’s

catchments

Tributaries which have been incorporated in the FEWS Model are

not gauged with respect to level/discharge

The resolution of this radar images is very low and radar data is

not calibrated

There are no upper-air observation stations in northern

mountainous area

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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)

The comparison of Actual and Forecasted Discharge at Tarbela

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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)

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Source: Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)

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Literature Review

Data Collection

Visits and meetings

Flood Forecasting Division Lahore

Department of Hydrology WAPDA

Pakistan Meteorology Department Lahore

PMD Regional office Peshawar

First objective which was error analysis of flood

forecasting

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Shortcomings in communication of FF

System in Pakistan

Shortcomings of mechanism of flood

preparedness

Actions and corresponding resource

requirements for enhancement of

effectiveness of FEWS in Pakistan04/13/23 17

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1. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission

to Pakistan, “review of severe flooding situation” art. 4.1 page 12.

2. Mission report (nov-2010) WMO fact-finding & needs-assessment mission

to Pakistan, “PMD forecasting and warning services” page 04.

3. Floods-2010 causes, management & damages member (water)

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