Introduction to Adequate Yearly Progress (AYP)

Michigan Department of EducationOffice of Psychometrics, Accountability, Research, &

Evaluation

Summer 2012

What’s New for 2011-12?

• Proficiency targets aligned with MEAP and MME College and Career Ready cut scores– Still need to reach 100% proficiency in 2013-14 unless

Michigan is granted flexibility with ESEA

– 2011-12 targets reset to 20th percentile of 2010-11 MEAP/MME proficiency keyed to CCR cut scores

• District report cards treated like school report cards– District is treated as one large building

– Graduation is used in lieu of attendance

What’s New for 2011-12?

• Graduation rates calculated and used for all valid subgroups– In previous years the subgroup rates were displayed but not

used in determining AYP

• EdYES letter grades are lower overall this year– Achievement scores keyed to new cut scores without a

change to the EdYES grading scale

– The accreditation system can only be updated through legislative mandate

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Adequate Yearly Progress

• Participation - 95% tested• MEAP, MME, MI-Access, or MEAP-Access

• Achievement - Proficiency• Meet state objective or “safe harbor” target for improvement

– Participation and Proficiency• Must meet in both Math and Reading• Must meet for whole school and subgroups

• Additional Academic Indicator• Graduation Rate – 80% - high schools• Attendance – 90% - elementary and middle schools

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Student Groups for AYP

• Racial/Ethnic Groups– Black or African American

– American Indian or Alaska Native

– Asian, Hawaiian Native, or Pacific Islander

– Hispanic or Latino

– White

– Multi-racial

• Limited English Proficient

• Students With Disabilities (Special Education)

• Economically Disadvantaged (Free & Reduced Lunch)

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2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14

Elementary

Mathematics 65% 74% 20% 60% 100%

Reading 69% 77% 48% 74% 100%

Middle School

Mathematics 54% 66% 10% 55% 100%

Reading 66% 74% 34% 67% 100%

High School

Mathematics 55% 67% 8% 54% 100%

Reading 71% 79% 33% 67% 100%

Michigan AYP Targets

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50 “cells” for AYP

Math Reading Math Reading

Black or African AmericanAmerican Indian or Alaska NativeAsian American Native Hawaiian or Other Pacific IslanderHispanic or LatinoCaucasian or WhiteMultiracial

Additional Indicator -

Attendance or Graduation

Economically Disadvantaged

Whole School

Achievement Participation

Racia

l/E

thnic

Gro

ups

Limited English ProficientStudents With Disabilities

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AYP Participation

• Aggregate percent tested across all grades tested at the school

Total Number Tested (grades 3+4+5)

Total Number Enrolled (grades 3+4+5)

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Full Academic Year

• Students enrolled in the school for the three most recent semi-annual official count days– MME uses four most recent count days

• Prior Enrollment lookup is used• Less than full academic year excluded for

achievement (proficiency), not for participation

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Feeder Codes

• Because the Elementary and Middle School assessment window is in the fall, feeder codes are used to attribute scores to the school where the student was enrolled in 2010-11

• MSDS was used to look-up enrollment in 2010-11 for the student

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Feeder Codes

• Feeder codes are used for PROFICIENCY–Participation is based on the school

where the student tested –All full academic year students should

have feeder codes• Feeder codes used for school AYP,

not for district AYP

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AYP Targets

• MDE has set separate statewide AYP targets for each grade

• A Proficiency Index is used to combine the grade level proficiency data and grade level targets to make an AYP decision across the grades

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Grade Level AYP Targets

Reading Math3 47% 17%4 48% 20%5 50% 18%6 43% 14%7 34% 14%8 39% 10%11 33% 8%

GradeAYP Targets

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Proficiency Index Reading

Grade TargetNumberTested

NumberProficient

PercentProficient

Difference From

Target

Grade Level

Weight

ProficiencyIndex

3 86% 30 28 93.3% 7.3 0.09 0.664 85% 40 35 87.5% 2.5 0.11 0.285 84% 100 89 89.0% 5.0 0.29 1.456 83% 10 3 30.0% -53.0 0.03 -1.597 82% 30 25 83.3% 1.3 0.09 0.128 82% 40 38 95.0% 13.0 0.11 1.4311 86% 100 79 79.0% -7.0 0.29 -2.03

Total 350 297 84.9% 1.01 0.32

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Group Size

• ALL schools are given an AYP status

• Group Size applies to subgroups – NOT to all students

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Group Size

• Minimum Group Size – Across Grades Tested is 30

• If total enrollment is more than 3,000– 1% Percent of Total Enrollment

– District AYP

– Maximum subgroup size is 200

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AYP Reliability - Margin of Error

– Measurement Error• Would the student score the same if tested

again?

• Standard Error of Measurement

– Provisional Proficient• Two times the standard error >= grade level cut

score

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Progress/Growth

• AYP proficient/provisional proficient classifies a student at a single point in time (status)

• Teachers often work students and make improvements in achievement

• Status models alone do not allow student improvement, which may be attributable to teacher intervention, to be tracked

• Growth Model gives credit in the AYP decision for growth from year-to-year by demonstrating that improvement in the student’s achievement is on a trajectory such that the student is expected to attain proficiency within the next three years.

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MEAP Progress Value Table

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“On Trajectory” Toward Proficiency

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Growth Model Message

• Focus on “improvement”–Don’t work only with “bubble” students

–Getting from 4-L to 3-L is enough improvement to be “on trajectory”

• The growth model provides modest adjustments

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Safe Harbor

• An additional way to meet the AYP achievement target

• School/district must reduce the percent of FAY students not proficient by 10% of the prior year’s percent not proficient– A school that had 50% of its students as not proficient in

2010-11 would need to have 45% of its students not proficient in 2011-12 for Safe Harbor

• Only used after multi-year proficiency indices are calculated

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Student Attendance

• Student attendance is taken from the End-of-Year MSDS submission of the prior school year

• Attendance is computed by summing the scheduled and actual days of attendance and then dividing the sum of the actual by the sum of scheduled

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NCLB Graduation Rate

• NCLB requires that AYP include a graduation rate based on the percentage of students that– Receive a REGULAR high school diploma

– In the STANDARD number of years

• AYP (including a graduation rate) is required for ALL schools

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Graduation Rates for 2011-12 AYP

• The Graduation/Dropout Review and Comment Application from CEPI provides the graduation rates used for AYP for the class of 2011

• The application was open in late summer of 2011

• Appeals only through GAD

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Five/Six Year Graduation Rates

• 2011 cohort (2007 9th graders) four-year grad rate >= 79.5%

• 2010 cohort five-year grad rate >= 79.5%

• 2009 cohort six-year grad rate >= 79.5%

• Graduation rate “Safe Harbor” using four year cohort rates

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AYP and Graduation Rate

• The AYP target graduation rate will remain at 80%

• 3-step improvement calculation:– 1.) calculate gap: 80 – previous 4-year rate

– 2.) calculate improvement target: (gap x 0.25) + previous 4-year rate = improvement target

– 3.) compare improvement target with current 4-year rate: current 4-year rate >= improvement target

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MI-Access

• All students taking current MI-Access assessments are counted as tested

• Cap of 1% on MI-Access proficient scores

• Cap is district-wide–Some schools might exceed the cap

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MEAP-Access

• 2% cap applies to “Modified Achievement Standards”– reflect reduced breadth or depth of grade-

level content

– Starts in 2011-12

• States are NOT allowed to approve exceptions to the 2% cap