international health care management part 2c steffen fleßa institute of health care management...
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International Health Care Management
Part 2c
Steffen FleßaInstitute of Health Care Management
University of Greifswald
1
Epidemiology of Non-Infectious Diseases
2 Demand for Health Services2.1 Determinants of Demand: Overview2.2 Demographic and Epidemiologic Transition2.3 Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases2.4 Epidemiology of Non-Infectious Diseases
2.4.1 Overview2.4.2 Example: Diabetes Mellitus Type II2.4.3 Example: Cervix Uteri Carcinoma
2.5 Risk Factors2.5.1 Nutrition 2.5.2 Water and Hygiene2.5.3 Smoking, Alcohol and Environmental Influences2.5.4 Pregnancy and Delivery2.5.5 Health Care System in Megacities
2.6 Filter Between Need and Demand
2
2.5.1 Health and Nutrition
• Traditional Notion: – Hunger, Malnutrition
• Reality:– Wrong Nutrition– Obesity– „Diseases of Civilization“ high complexity of worldwide nutritional situation!
• Various “worlds of nutrition” within one country
4
DEMAND
Want
(Desire for Certain Foods)
Subjective Experience of Deficit (Hunger)
Objective Nutritional Deficiency (Calories, Proteins,
Vitamins…
Supply and Demand for Food
5
DEMAND
Want
(Desire for Certain Foods)
Subjective Experience of Deficit (Hunger)
Objective Nutritional Deficiency (Calories, Proteins,
Vitamins…
Speculation
Want
(i.e. Desire for Biofuels)
Subjective Experience of Deficit (i.e. Mobility)
Alternative Use
6
Supply
Food Production
- Technology
- Forms of
Organization
- Management
Soil - Area - Quality
Labor - Quantity - Quality
Technology - Seeds /… - Machines
Weather - Precipitation - Temperature
Food - Quantity - Quality - Portfolio - Environ-mental Degra-dation / Care
7
State of Health
Food Security
Food Security
Capacity for Care
Health Care
Knowledge, Education,Welfare(i.e. maternity protection)
Access to clean drinking water, sanitation and health care facilities
Quantity and Quality of Available Resources:
• human• natural• economic• social and political context
Ingestion
Access to food as the result of food market (price, quality, quantity, distance, …)
Food Security
8
Malnutrition
(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/7/78/Percentage_population_undernourished_world_map.PNG)10
Malnutrition
11
Africa (4.3)
Other Asia (5.3)India (7.8)
China (1.1)
Latin America &Caribbean (1.2)
Newborns under Malnutrition [Mio/Year]
11
Malnutrition and Wrong Nutrition
• One deficit does not equal the other
• Hunger Global Malnutrition
– (formerly: Protein-Energy-Malnutrition)
• ‚Hidden Hunger‘ Deficit of Micronutrients
– Individual nutrients (i.e. vitamin A, iron, iodine)
1212
Obesity
18
1989 1991 1993 1997 1989 1991 1993 1997
China is becoming wealthier ...Proportion of China‘s population (20-45 years), that gets less than 10% of their energy from fat:
Proportion .. more than 30% of energy from fat
18
Diabetes: in Developing Countries as well
Global Prevalence of Diabetes
0
50
100
150
200
250
Africa
America
Europe
Middle East
Asia/A
ustrali
a
Peop
le in
Mill
ions
2000 2030
+62%
+57%
+51% +31% +64%
19
20
Global Mortality of Diabetes in 2000(Age Group 35 to 64 Years)
204.000 231.000 261.000 89.000
977.000
0 200 400 600 800
1.000 1.200
Africa
America
Europe
Middle Ea
st
Asia/A
ustralia
x10
00 P
eopl
e
Diabetes: in Developing Countries as well
20
Nutritional Status of Diabetics in Northern Tanzania (Krawinkel 2008)
BMI>3022%
BMI 18,5-24,937%
BMI<18,53%
BMI 25-2938%
21
Nutrition and Diseases
• Regulatory Circuit:– Wrong and malnutrition increase susceptibility to disease– Disease results in malnutrition
• Reason:– Increased need in sickness
• Calories: up to 100 % additionally• Vitamins: up to couple 100% additionally
– Diseases specific to the digestive system, i.e. hookworm Anemia
22
2.5.2 Water and Hygiene
• Consumption in Germany (44.000 l p.c. p.a.)– Agricultural irrigation (3%)– Consumption in households (personal hygiene): 14%
• Drinking water: 0,5-2,5 l per day
– Industrial consumption (83%)• Consumption in Developing Countries (i.e. India:
91.250 l p.c. p.a.):– Predominantly agricultural
http://www.hydrologie.uni-oldenburg.de/ein-bit/11686.html
23
Consumption of Water per Day
http://www.forumla.de/f-politik-gesellschaft-92/t-wasserknappheit-81294
Comparison – international consumption of water liter/p.c. (as
of 2000)
Belg
ium
Germ
any
Eng
land
France
Sw
itze
rland
24
Hippocrates of Cos (460 BC -370 BC)
• „Air, Water and Places" – Whoever wishes to investigate medicine properly, should proceed thus: in the
first place to consider the seasons of the year, and what effects each of them produces for they are not at all alike, but differ much from themselves. Then the winds, the hot and the cold, especially such as are common to all countries, and then such as are peculiar to each locality. We must also consider the qualities of the waters, for as they differ from one another in taste and weight, so also do they differ much in their qualities.
– These things one ought to consider most attentively, and concerning the waters which the inhabitants use, whether they be marshy and soft, or hard, and running from elevated and rocky situations, and then if saltish and unfit for cooking; and the ground, whether it be naked and deficient in water, or wooded and well watered, and whether it lies in a hollow, confined situation, or is elevated and cold; and the mode in which the inhabitants live, and what are their pursuits, whether they are fond of drinking and eating to excess, and given to indolence, or are fond of exercise and labor, and not given to excess in eating and drinking.
http://www.paganrod.com/2010/02/hippocrates-on-airs-waters-and-places.html
25
Declaration of Alma Ata (1978)
• Primary health care … includes at least: – education concerning prevailing health problems and the
methods of preventing and controlling them; – promotion of food supply and proper nutrition; – an adequate supply of safe water and basic sanitation; – maternal and child health care, including family planning; – immunization against the major infectious diseases; – prevention and control of locally endemic diseases; – appropriate treatment of common diseases and injuries; – and provision of essential drugs;
26
Millennium Development Goals1. Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger until 2015
– Water is the basis for nutrition 2. Achieve universal primary education 3. Promote gender equality and empower women 4. Reduce child mortality
– Water and hygiene are basis for child health5. Improve maternal health
– Water and hygiene are basis for maternal health6. Combat HIV/Aids, Malaria and other diseases
– Malaria is a water-related disease7. Ensure environmental sustainability
– Water cycle8. Global partnership for development
27
Water-Related Diseases
• (Drinking)Water-Transmitted Diseases– Water is medium of transmission– i.e. Cholera, Hepatitis A, Diphtheria, Salmonellae, Polio
• Water-Washable Diseases– Water is medium of prevention– i.e. Colds and Flues, Worms, Diarrhea, Pox
• Water-Resistant Diseases– Water is reservoir– i.e. Bilharzias, Malaria, Dengue, River Blindness
28
Water and Health
• 884 million people do not have access to safe water
• 2.6 billion people do not have safe toilettes• 10% of worldwide burden of disease is caused
by water and sanitation• 30% of child mortality in developing countries
is caused by water and sanitation(OECD 2011)
29
Example: Rotavirus
• Most Common Severe Diarrhea Worldwide– 111 million cases annually– 25 million in health care system
• 35-50% clinical diarrhea• 2 million hospital admissions <5 years
– 850.000 fatalities annually (predominantly children)
• Main cause of death: dehydration
• Transmission: fecal-oral
30
Water Scarcity and Populationhttp://www.tor-nach-afrika.de/home/content.cfm?ID=366&nav=Partnerschaften
32
The Fight for Water
33
Diarrheal Diseaseshttp://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/e/ef/Choleraverbreitung_%28deutsch%29.PNG
Cases of Cholera worldwide
ReportedSporadically
34
Stool
Flies
Soil (also via pigs, chicken)
Hands, also commodities (especially small chil-
dren)
Drinking Water
Food Mouth
TOILET
INFECTION
Diesfeld et al. (1997): S. 94 35
Toilet Systems: Primary Prevention
• No Toilet – Roadside, bushes, water channels, rice fields…
• Dry Latrines– Pit with cover, danger of formation of gases, breeding place for flies
• Ventilated Dry Latrine– Pit is ventilated, fly trap
• Flush Toilet with Odor Trap– Low water consumption, primarily serves odor/smell reduction via
siphon• Water Closet
– Thorough removal of excrements by use of water pressure and amount
36
Water and Hygiene in Health Care Facilities
• Sample: 66000 health care facilities in 54 low- and middle-income countries
• “improved water source”: not available in 38%
• Water and soap for handwashing: not available in 35 %
• “improved sanitation” (Toilets): not available in 19 %
WASH: water, sanitation and hygiene concept by WHO & UNICEF
37
2.5.3 Smoking, Alcohol and Environmental Influences
• Tobacco associated fatalities in Germany (incl. Passive smoking)– Cancer: 60.000– Cardio-Vascular Diseases: 52.000– Respiratory Diseases: 28.000– Total: > 140.000 (16 % of total fatalities)– Almost every 6th resident of Germany dies due to
consuming tobacco– 86 % of smokers die due to tobacco as estimated by the
Centre for Disease Control
38
Cost of Smoking(Germany 2003)
• Average consumption: 16,6 cigarettes per smoker per day
• Tobacco Tax (2008): 13,6 billion Euro• Cost:
– Direct Cost: 7,5 billion Euro• Outpatient care: 24 %• Drugs: 24 %• Rehabilitation: 4 %• Acute hospital care: 48 %
– Indirect Cost: 13,5 billion Euro• Mortality: 4,7 billion Euro• Morbidity: 8,8 billion Euro
Source: Neubauer et al. (2006): Mortality, Morbidity, and Costs attributable to Smoking in Germany. Tobacco Control 15, p. 464-47141
Cost of Smoking(International)
• Australia (2004/5)– Tobacco Tax: 5,1 billion US$– Direct Cost: 1,7 billion US$– Indirect Cost: 3,1 billion US$
• Massachusetts (USA)– Direct Cost: 4,3 billion US$– Indirect Cost: 1,7 billion US$
• Taiwan (2001)– Direct Cost: 2,3 billion US$– Indirect Cost: 2,0 billion US$
Source: Collins, D.J.; Lapsely, H.M. (2008): the costs of tobacco, alcohol and illicit drug abuse to Australian society. Commonwealth of Australia, CanberraHuans, X. et al. (2008): Smoking-attributable mortality and economic costs. Bureau of substance abuse services, Department of Public Health, Mass.Yang, M.C. et al. (2005): Smoking attributable medical expenditures… Tobacco Control 14, 62-70 42
Prevalence
of Daily Smok
ing (≥18 Years
, 2003-2004)
South
East Asia
Africa
Eastern
Medite
rranean
Weste
rn Pac
ific
America
Europe
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
1. Quintile 5. Quintile
WHO Region
Prev
alen
ce [%
]
43
Model of Smoking
Phase I Phase II Phase III Phase IV
Pro
port
ion
of S
mok
ers
in A
dult
Pop
ulat
ion
[%]
Fat
alit
ies
Due
to S
mok
ing
[%]
Male Smokers
Female Smokers
Fatalities in Male Smokers
Fatalities in Female Smokers
44
Consumption of Alcohol
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_adult_percapita_consumption_2005.png
45
Risk Profile
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_patterns_drinking_score_2005.png
46
Results
http://gamapserver.who.int/mapLibrary/Files/Maps/Global_subregions_dalys_2004_generalized.png
47
Environ-mental
Influences
Economic Growth
Demand Production - CO2 - CFC - CO - N2O - CH4 - H2O
Water Temperature Precipitation
Glaciers Storms Floods Sea
Level
Migra-tion
Agricul-tural Area
Shift in Cli-mate Zones
Forest Decrease
Health Effects
Air Temperature
Dyke Con-struction
Soil Pro-tection
Exploita-
tion
dam Con-
struction
Drought
48
2.5.4 Pregnancy and Delivery
• Starting Point: Millennium Development Goals, Goals 3-5– Promotion of gender equality and empower women– Reduce child mortality
• Reduce mortality rate of children younger than 5 by 2/3 until 2015 (basis 1990)
– Improve maternal health• Reduce maternal mortality rates by 3/4 until 2015 (basis 1990)
49
Maternal Mortality in Germany 1900-1999
310350
490460
220
8040 15 6
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
MM
R/1
00.0
00 L
B
Maternal Mortality Rate = MMR
Live Birth = LB
51
Maternal Mortality in Comparison
0
100
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300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
USA
E&W
SW
Median Poor Countries '93
USA
Sweden
England
52
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
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800
900
1000
1850 1860 1870 1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990
USA
E&W
SW
Median Poor Countries '93
USA
Sweden
England
LLDC Average 2000
Maternal Mortality in Comparison
53
Müttersterblichkeit weltweit (Todesfälle/100.000 Lebendgeburten)
99% maternal fatalities occurin developing countries!
55
Health and DemographyGermany Tanzania
Child Mortality (<5 years of age)
5/1000 Births 154/1000 Births
Maternal Mortality 0,06/1000 Births
7/1000 Births
Life Expectancy 79 Years 46 Years
Fertility(children per women)
1,3 5,2
Health Expenditure per capita in US$
2412 1256
Maternal Mortality: a Main Problem of Health?
• Maternal mortality has a significant share of total mortality in women of reproductive age (10-30%)
• Maternal mortality has a significant share of pregnancy related mortality: 7% of total pregnancy related fatalities involve mothers
• Proportion of burden of disease (in DALYs) in Africa:– Maternal conditions: 3,2 %– Perinatal: 6,5 %
57
Mother-Child-Programs (MCH)
• 1948: Mother-Child-Health (MCH) is one of four priorities in founding the WHO
• 1978: MCH is an element of PHC- Prenatal care and obstetrics- training MCH health professionals- Focus on survival of children
58
• 1985: more emphasis on maternal health: “Where is the “M” in MCH?”1987: Safe Motherhood Initiative:- Concept of risk in prenatal care- Training of traditional midwifes- Obstetrics in in reference hospital
(concept of districts)
Mother-Child-Programs (MCH)
59
International Conference on Population and Development
• Abbreviation: – ICPD – Cairo 1994
• Resolutions:– Prevention and referral– Obstetrics assisted by trained midwives– Preventing over-intervention– Abortion care– Increase quality and effectiveness– Informed decision
60
Safe Motherhood Actions 1999• Content: Revision of Safe Motherhood Strategy• Goals:
1. Advance Safe Motherhood Through Human Rights
2. Empower Women: Ensure Choices
3. Safe Motherhood is a Vital Economic and Social Investment
4. Delay Marriage and First Birth
5. Every Pregnancy Faces Risks (Emergency Care)
6. Ensure Skilled Attendance at Delivery
7. Improve Access to Quality Reproductive Health Services
8. Prevent Unwanted Pregnancy and Address Unsafe Abortion
9. Measure Progress
10.The Power of Partnership
61
“ The emphasis is on improving the accessibility, quality and utilisation of Emergency Obstetric Care for women who develop such complications, rather than on having contact with all pregnant women“
(D. Maine 1997)
62
Loss of Effectiveness in Prenatal Care
29,7%
19,0%
14,3%
3,6%2,4%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
Pro
po
rtio
n o
f Pre
gn
an
cie
s
From Risk Detection to Adequate Treatment
63
Medically Defined Risk Groups versus Self Assessment of Mothers
(Example Mtwara, Tanzania)
Hospital Births: 21% Risk Pregnancies according to catalogue: 29%
Risk Pregnancy in Hospital: 6%64
Current Debate• Can maternal health be improved without an improvement of
overall health care?
• Is an emphasis on emergency care justified?
• What role has prenatal care?
• Maternal versus child health?
• Improving the legal and social status of women.
65
Abortion
• Est. 35-53 mio. p.a. worldwide• 97 countries prohibit abortion (only in case of
conflict of life of mother): 39 % of world population
66
Example Kenya
• Abortion is illegal (except for conflict of life of mother and after rape)
• Estimated number of (illegal) abortions: – 300-400.000 p.a.– Predominantly girls < 15 years– Post coital contraception: unknown number
• High mortality due to illegal abortions– Estimate: 40 % of maternal mortality
69
Conclusion
• All previous “magic bullet” concepts failed• Actual progress in reducing maternal mortality
demands for an overall improvement of health care in addition to specific measures (i.e. training midwives)
71
2.5.6 Health Care in Megacities
• Reason:– High urbanization in developing countries– Strong attention to rural problems
72
Urbanization in Least Developed Countries
http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp/index.htmSide Condition: already in 2008 the majority of the world‘s population is living in urban regions!
0
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latio
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latio
n ['0
00]
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73
„Urban Penalty“
• Early Industrial Revolution: Life expectancy in cities is significantly lower than in rural areas = urban penalty
• Development: since 20th century non existent
74
Land, Kleinstädte
Großstädte
Life
Expect
ancy
at
Bir
th (
Years
)
Life Expectancy in England and Wales (Szreter 1999) 75
Example: Healthy / Sick Cities
Cities with more than 10 million people
1980 1990 2000
New York, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Tokyo
New York, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Tokyo, Los Angeles, Buenos Aires, Mumbai, Kalkuta, Peking, Seoul
New York, Mexico City, Sao Paulo, Shanghai, Tokyo, Los Angeles, Buenos Aires, Mumbai, Kalkuta, Peking, Seoul, Reio de Janeiro, Lagos, Cairo, Krachi, Delhi, Dhaka, Jakarta, Manila 76
http://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140673613608697/images?imageId=fx1§ionType=lightBlue&hasDownloadImagesLink=false
80
Diseases of Higher Prevalence in Megacities
• Diseases of Digestive Organs– High child mortality
• Diseases of the Lungs, Asthma– Strong pollution
• Mexico City is considered the “most dirty city”• Ozone > WHO standard on more that 300 days / year
• Hearing Loss– Noise pollution
• Nervousness, communication disorders, sleep disorder• Obesity• Allergies• Diabetes
81
Problems
• Insecure living situation - physical (i.e. landslides) - legal (missing tenures, especially women)
• Insecure supply of drinking water; no sanitation• High density in population risk for spread of diseases• Work conditions hazardous to health
82
Problems (2)
• Economic growth does not reach everybody to the same extend: social inequality remains
• Empowerment: health conscious middle class is reached – not so the poor
• Different priorities: work, tenures, legal status of women …
• Social structures: no growth / vulnerable to resettlement programs
83
Problems (3)
• Physicians do not show interest in empowerment (questioning their own role) and in prevention (are smoking themselves)
• Prevention requires investment, i.e. infrastructure for sports (missing especially for women)
• Treatment of manifested diseases are complex and expensive
84
Problems in Slums
Environmental Pollution
Low Income
High Density in Population
Missing Social Structures
Hazardous Conditions at Work
Social Inequality
Poor Living Conditions
Low Public Security
Respiratory Diseases, Allergies,
Noise
Violence AIDS
Poor Hygiene
Accidents at Work
Diarrheal Diseases,
Parasitoses
Malaria Obesity, Diabetes
Lack of Physical Ac-tivity
Accidents
Low Quality of Life, High Mortality 85
2.6 Filter Between Desire and Demand
2 Demand for Health Services2.1 Determinants of Demand2.2 Demographic and Epidemiologic Transition2.3 Epidemiology of Infectious Diseases2.4 Epidemiology of Non-Infectious Diseases2.5 Risk Factors2.6. Filter Between Need and Demand2.6.1 Distance and Demand2.6.2 Price Elasticity and Insurance
86
Importance of Distance to the Health Care System
• Service Character:– Cannot be stored – Cannot be transported – Requires presence of patient
• Consequence: Production and sales in unity of place, time and action
• Consequence: Overcoming distance in the short-term is essential
87
Distance-Friction-Effect
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Newton‘s Gravity Formula
d
MMCG 21
• G Gravity within two centers• C Constant
• Mi Mass of center i
• d Distance between two centers• α Friction constant, depending on infrastructure,
mental mobility, relative benefit
Problem: Curative medicine shows small alpha, prevention high alpha 90
Actual Catchment Area
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Pati
en
ts [%
]
Distance to Masasi Hospital [km]
91
Catchment Area of Minimal Distance
0
2
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6
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10
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14
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0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70
Pa
tie
nts
, Po
pu
lati
on
[%
]
Distance to Masasi Hospital [km]
Patients Population 92
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90
100
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po
rtio
n o
f P
atie
nts
[%
]
Distance [km]
Catchment Area Kajiado Hospital, Kenya
93
0
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po
rtio
n o
f P
atie
nts
[%
]
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Catchment Area Thikai Health Centre, Kenya
94
Travel time to Balkh Provincial Hospital
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trib
ution
func
tion
time [h] 96
2.6.2 Price Elasticity and Insurance
• Procedure:– Economic basics implied – Here: exceptions
• To Repeat: Definition of Elasticity – Price Elasticity– Cross-Price Elasticity– Income Elasticity
97
Occupancy and Fees of 24 Church Hospitals
020406080
100120140160180200
0 20 40 60 80 100
Occ
upan
cy [%
]
Proportion of Fees [%]
98
Demand for Outpatient Services in Mvumi Hospital
02000400060008000
1000012000
1991 1993 1995 1997
Out
patie
nts
Time [Years]
99
Fee Waiver for Poverty Groups
• Definition of Poverty – absolute poverty (1 US$) – relative poverty: exclusion from “normal” way of life
• Problems:– Determining criteria
• Poverty in income?• Poverty in assets? (Massai owning 200 cows?)
– Side-payments
100
Share of Costumers of Health Facilities Having to Pay for Services That Are Free of Charge (Kenya)
45%
55% 60%54%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Immunisation Antenatal Family planning
Delivery
101
Poverty and Human Development Index
• “Multidimensional Poverty”: Proportion of population that are considered poor under various dimensions
102
Human Development Index (2012)
Multidimensional Poverty [% of total population]
Niger 186 92,4Ethiopia 173 87,3Mali 182 86,6Burundi 178 84,5Burkina Faso 183 84Liberia 174 83,9Guinea 178 82,5Somalia .. 81,2Mozambique 185 79,3Sierra Leone 177 77Senegal 154 74,4Congo (Dem. Rep.) 186 74Benin 166 71,8Uganda 161 69,9Rwanda 167 69Timor-Leste 134 68,1Madagascar 151 66,9Malawi 170 66,7Tanzania 152 65,6
https://data.undp.org/dataset/MPI-Headcount-percentage-of-population-in-multidim/ggn4-nphr 103
Lorenz-Chart of Cambodia (2004) (World Bank 2008)
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me
[%]
Population [%]104
Consumption per capita in Cambodia (Worldbank
2012)
0
2
4
6
8
10
0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000
Popu
lati
on [
%]
Consumption p.c. p.d. [2009 Riel]
Year 2004 Year 2011 105
Wealth
• Wealth of Assets– Financial Assets– Real Estate Assets
• Wealth of Income Statistics vary significantly!
107
Millionaires Worldwide [in thousands]
http://www.sueddeutsche.de/geld/vermoegen-weltweit-neue-deutsche-millionaere-1.708921
108
http://www.welt.de/finanzen/article117239605/In-Deutschland-leben-erstmals-eine-Million-Millionaere.html109
Consequences
• Large proportion of the world’s population cannot afford minimal health care
• Health insurance is a possibility to pool the risk of catastrophic payment
• A proportion of the German population would also not be able to pay for health care
112