IMPACT OF HURRICANE IMPACT OF HURRICANE KEITH IN BELIZEKEITH IN BELIZE

EVALUTION TEAM MEMBERSEVALUTION TEAM MEMBERS

• 15 members15 members• 6 consultants and experts from 6 consultants and experts from

other international organizations: other international organizations: IICA, PAHO and UNICEFIICA, PAHO and UNICEF

• technical and logistic support from technical and logistic support from IDB’s representationIDB’s representation

• full cooperation of Belize full cooperation of Belize governmentgovernment

SCHEDULESCHEDULE12 -22 November 200012 -22 November 2000

• 13-17 - Information gathering13-17 - Information gathering• 18-21 - Preparation of draft report18-21 - Preparation of draft report• 22 - Submission of report to Government22 - Submission of report to Government• 23- 27 - Editing, revising and printing of 23- 27 - Editing, revising and printing of

reportreport• 28 - Formal submission to Government and 28 - Formal submission to Government and

IDB for trasmsittal to Friends of BelizeIDB for trasmsittal to Friends of Belize• 7 December (in Washington, at IDB) Friends 7 December (in Washington, at IDB) Friends

of Belize Conferenceof Belize Conference

WHAT DO WE MEASUREWHAT DO WE MEASURE

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS ECONOMIC ANALYSIS OF NATURAL OF NATURAL DISASTERSDISASTERS

•Direct damagesDirect damages• Indirect DamagesIndirect Damages•Total cost of damagesTotal cost of damages•Global (macroeconomic) Global (macroeconomic)

effectseffects

DIRECT DAMAGESDIRECT DAMAGES• Are all damages to assets (capital, inventories and stock, Are all damages to assets (capital, inventories and stock,

finished products, inputs and production in process, raw finished products, inputs and production in process, raw materials, spare parts, etc.).materials, spare parts, etc.).

• It includes damage to property that occurs It includes damage to property that occurs simultaneously or immediately after the disastrous event.simultaneously or immediately after the disastrous event.

• Covers damage to physical infrastructure, buildings, Covers damage to physical infrastructure, buildings, machinery and equipment, warehouses, transport machinery and equipment, warehouses, transport infrastructure and equipment, furnishings, agricultural infrastructure and equipment, furnishings, agricultural soil, inputs and production --including crops on ground soil, inputs and production --including crops on ground not collected-- irrigation and drainage works, dams and not collected-- irrigation and drainage works, dams and reservoirs, etc.reservoirs, etc.

• Is measured in physical terms and is assigned a value in Is measured in physical terms and is assigned a value in monetary terms.monetary terms.

CONSIDERATION OF CONSIDERATION OF REPLACEMENT COSTSREPLACEMENT COSTS

Value is assigned on “as is” basis: Value is assigned on “as is” basis: • present value of assets including present value of assets including • depreciation, tear and wear and depreciation, tear and wear and • level of maintenance or repair, level of maintenance or repair,

not replacement (at current costs of similar not replacement (at current costs of similar good) or reconstruction (improved, less good) or reconstruction (improved, less risky, technologically upgraded, etc.)risky, technologically upgraded, etc.)

CONSIDERATION OF CONSIDERATION OF REPLACEMENT COSTSREPLACEMENT COSTS

In the productive sectors replacement costs imply In the productive sectors replacement costs imply • losses in assets (infrastructure and lost production losses in assets (infrastructure and lost production

damaged by the event), damaged by the event), • income lost and production that will not be obtained income lost and production that will not be obtained

indirectly due to the event, and indirectly due to the event, and • investment that will have to be made to recuperate a investment that will have to be made to recuperate a

similar production level to pre-hurricane levels. similar production level to pre-hurricane levels. This This preliminary estimate will vary in time, according to preliminary estimate will vary in time, according to price fluctuations in the coming months, financial price fluctuations in the coming months, financial resources available and time-frame associated with resources available and time-frame associated with investment maturity and natural growth of plants.investment maturity and natural growth of plants.

INDIRECT DAMAGESINDIRECT DAMAGES• Are losses in flows (production that Are losses in flows (production that

will not be realised, goods and will not be realised, goods and services not provided or made costlier services not provided or made costlier due to the disaster).due to the disaster).

• Includes additional costs due to the Includes additional costs due to the emergency in the distribution, emergency in the distribution, marketing and consumption cycle.marketing and consumption cycle.

• Are measured in monetary terms (not Are measured in monetary terms (not physical), at current (pre-disaster) prices physical), at current (pre-disaster) prices and establishing changes in these.and establishing changes in these.

INDIRECT DAMAGES (2)INDIRECT DAMAGES (2)• Increased Increased operational costsoperational costs due to destruction or damage due to destruction or damage

to infrastructure and other assets, including stocks. to infrastructure and other assets, including stocks. • Additional production costs and increased costs in Additional production costs and increased costs in

distribution and supply of goods and services due to distribution and supply of goods and services due to use of use of alternate meansalternate means..

• Income Income losses resulting of diminished economic losses resulting of diminished economic activityactivity (both in terms of production and distribution). (both in terms of production and distribution).

• Extraordinary costs associated with Extraordinary costs associated with emergency needsemergency needs (such as health and hygiene campaigns, vaccination (such as health and hygiene campaigns, vaccination programmes, potabilization of water, etc.).programmes, potabilization of water, etc.).

• Extraordinary Extraordinary investments for the (temporary) investments for the (temporary) resettlement of activitiesresettlement of activities (production, distribution, (production, distribution, services, etc.) and sheltering homeless or displaced services, etc.) and sheltering homeless or displaced population.population.

TOTAL COST OF DAMAGESTOTAL COST OF DAMAGES

• It is the It is the sum total of direct and indirect sum total of direct and indirect damages, damages, in material (physical) terms and in material (physical) terms and monetary value, attributable to the disaster.monetary value, attributable to the disaster.

• Is undervalued and tends to reflect mostly Is undervalued and tends to reflect mostly the direct damages without considering the direct damages without considering the emergency costs the emergency costs (search and rescue, (search and rescue, provision of food, medicines, shelter, temporary provision of food, medicines, shelter, temporary displacement of activities, etc.displacement of activities, etc.

• Does not quantify value of lives lost, Does not quantify value of lives lost, recording only the number of deaths, injured, recording only the number of deaths, injured, disappeared or most severely affected.disappeared or most severely affected.

GLOBAL EFFECTSGLOBAL EFFECTS• Refers to the Refers to the impact on the overall impact on the overall

performanceperformance of the economy, measured by the of the economy, measured by the main economic variables.main economic variables.

• Are felt during a certain lapse of time after the Are felt during a certain lapse of time after the disaster:disaster:– in the short run (6 months to a year in terms of in the short run (6 months to a year in terms of

emergency and rehabilitation),emergency and rehabilitation),– medium-term 2 to 4 years) in terms of medium-term 2 to 4 years) in terms of

rehabilitation-reconstruction, and rehabilitation-reconstruction, and – in the long run (in terms of permanent structural in the long run (in terms of permanent structural

change, cancellation of development change, cancellation of development opportunities and assets never replaced.opportunities and assets never replaced.

MACROECONOMIC EFFECTSMACROECONOMIC EFFECTS• Are measuredAre measured as the difference in the performance of main as the difference in the performance of main

economic indicators after the disaster and the existing economic indicators after the disaster and the existing projections or estimates before its occurrence.projections or estimates before its occurrence.

• Includes the relative value of the following:Includes the relative value of the following:– Gross Domestic Product, aggregated and by sectors.Gross Domestic Product, aggregated and by sectors.– Balance of payments and trade balance.Balance of payments and trade balance.– Indebtedness level and monetary reserves.Indebtedness level and monetary reserves.– Public finances balance (change in the relation between Public finances balance (change in the relation between

income and outlays).income and outlays).– Net capital formation (gross investment)Net capital formation (gross investment)– Price variations (inflation)Price variations (inflation)– Employment/unemployment levelsEmployment/unemployment levels– Family and personal incomeFamily and personal income– Other social indicators (education, health, housing, etc.)Other social indicators (education, health, housing, etc.)

Eastern Caribbean - Real GDP at Factor Cost

3

0.7

2.7

3.1

3.8

0

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

3

3.5

4

1994 1995 1996 1997 1998Year

An

nu

al

Perc

en

tag

e C

han

ge

Source: Statistical Offices, OECS and ECCB

MAJOR TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANES IN THE MAJOR TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANES IN THE

CARIBBEAN, 1990-1999CARIBBEAN, 1990-1999Year Classification Name Area Dates

1990 Tropical Storm Arthur Tobago/St. Vincent and the Grenadines 22-27 July

Hurricane Diana Yucatan 3-7 August

Tropical Storm Fran Trinidad 11-14 August

Hurricane Klaus Virgin Islands 2-9 October

1991 Tropical Storm Fabian Cuba 14-15 October

Hurricane Caesar Trinidad and Tobago/Netherlands Antilles 24-29 July

1992 Hurricane Andrew Bahamas 16-27 August

1993 Tropical Storm Bret Trinidad/ Belize 4-11 August

Tropical Storm Cindy Martinique 14-17 August

1994 Tropical Storm Debby St. Lucia 9-11 September

Tropical Storm Gordon a/ Jamaica/Cuba/Bahamas 8-21 November

1995 Hurricane Erin Bahamas 31 July6 August

Hurricane Iris Leeward Islands 22 August4 September

Hurricane Marilyn Virgin Islands b/ NetherlandsAntilles/Leeward Islands/Dominica/PuertoRico

12–22 September

Hurricane Luis Leeward Islands c/ Netherlands Antilles 27 August11 September

1996 Hurricane Lili Cuba/ Bahamas 14–27 October

1997 None

1998 Hurricane Georges Leeward Islands/NetherlandsAntilles/Puerto Rico/DominicanRepublic/Haiti/Cuba

15 September1 October

1999 Hurricane Floyd Bahamas 7-17 September

1999 Hurricane Jose Anguilla/Netherlands Antilles/LeewardIslands/British Virgin Islands

17-25 October

Hurricane Lenny Netherlands Antilles/ Virgin Islands 13-27 November

Hurricane Irene Cuba 13-19 October

Hurricane Dennis Bahamas 24 August7 September

Source: United States National Hurricane Centre.a/ Haiti severely affected. Rain/Floods.b/ US and British Virgin Islands.c/ Antigua and Barbuda, St. Barts, St. Maarten, Anguilla.

Contents of reportContents of reportThe proposed outline for the report will include:The proposed outline for the report will include:

– Summary and conclusionsSummary and conclusions– Description of the event Description of the event

(magnitude, extent, force)(magnitude, extent, force)– Sectoral evaluationsSectoral evaluations– Summary of damagesSummary of damages– Overall economic, infrastructural, Overall economic, infrastructural,

social, and environmental impactsocial, and environmental impact– Macroeconomic and other policy Macroeconomic and other policy

implicationsimplications– Towards a reconstruction strategy: Towards a reconstruction strategy:

risk reduction and vulnerability risk reduction and vulnerability mitigationmitigation

– A tentative list of project profiles A tentative list of project profiles for reconstruction and mitigationfor reconstruction and mitigation

– The need for external cooperationThe need for external cooperation

Social damagesSocial damages

– Population/areas affectedPopulation/areas affected– Impact on social sectors (accounting Impact on social sectors (accounting

both on infrastructure losses and cost of both on infrastructure losses and cost of services lost and extraordinary expenses services lost and extraordinary expenses associated with the emergency)associated with the emergency)•HealthHealth•Education (including sport facilities)Education (including sport facilities)•HousingHousing•Living conditions (effects on social fabric, on Living conditions (effects on social fabric, on

different socio-economic groups, including different socio-economic groups, including the gender perspective, employment, etc.)the gender perspective, employment, etc.)

0

5000

10000

15000

20000

Living In Flooded Areas 14,717 9,303 2435 11,393 19,126 5,823

Living in Flooded Houses 2,943 1,920 487 2,245 610 1,165

Living in Shelters 0 65

Homeless 279 3,000 0 0

Displaced 279 3,000 0 420 1,636

Isolated 4,555 7,509 1396

At high risk of Health Impairment 1,300 10,000 14,711 9,303 2,855 12,681 15,419 5,823

Caye

CaulkerSan Pedro Belize City

Rest of

Belize

District

Orange

Walk Town

Rest of

District

COROZAL

DISTRICT

CAYO

DISTRICT

Types Of Trauma Management Programmesconducted

Group Trauma management counselling(with persons over age 30 in one shelter with apopulation of 130)

Conflict resolution counselling meetings

Support group meetings for psychiatric , medical andsocial worker staff

Public service announcements for stress and crisismanagement

Individual and family counselling; stressmanagement.

SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE HEALTH SECTOR(Belize dollars)

DamageTotal Direct Indirect

Reconstructioncosts

Importedcomponents

TOTAL 3,888,000 2,558,000 1,330,000 2,855,000 1,600,000Partial or total destruction of

health infrastructure1,130,000 1,120,000 10,000 2,200,000

Loss equipment and furnishings 640,000 640,000 1,500,000Health community education

material70,000 70,000

Extra spending on drugs andmedications

524,000 104,000 420,000 5,000 100,000

Vector control-environmentalsanitation activities

674,000 674,000

Increase cost of inpatient,outpatient and medical care

123,000 123,000

Epidemiological surveillance 30,000 30,000Damages in rural water supplysystems (wells, rain water vat)

157,000 157,000 250,000

Damages in rural sanitationsystems (latrines)

537,000 537,000 400,000

Psycho-social rehabilitation(consultancy and training

materials)

3,000 3,000

SUMMARY OF EFFECTS ON THE EDUCATION SECTOR

Belize dollars

TOTAL 3,038,302Direct effects: 2,289,090i. Reparation of schools 958,195ii. Replacement of school materialsand furnishings

810,000

iii. Damages to libraries 102,000iv. Damages to sport facilities 418,894Imported Component 911,490Indirect effects: 749,212i. Cost of teachers during classsuspension

622,125

ii. Damages for use as shelters 127,087

0

5,000,000

10,000,000

15,000,000

20,000,000

25,000,000

30,000,000

35,000,000

40,000,000

Number 1,988 406 275 65 1,212 30 0

Cost of damages 21,725,300 10,280,000 6,625,000 2,761,000 1,889,300 90,000 80,000

Reconstruction costs 36,989,300 12,670,000 9,625,000 3,490,000 11,034,300 90,000 80,000

TOTAL San Pedro Caye Caulker

Belize District

(other than

cayes)

Orange Walk Cayo District Corozal District

ESTIMATED RECONSTRUCTION COSTS

Belize dollars

TOTAL 106,416,855Direct effects:(i+ii+iii) 93,470,600i. Reparation 36,989,300ii. Replacement 46,735,300iii. Cost of furnishings 9,746,000Imported Component 16,757,063Secondary effects (relocation) 12,946,255

Infrastructure damagesInfrastructure damages

• Basic services and lifelinesBasic services and lifelines• Transportation and port/docking Transportation and port/docking

facilitiesfacilities• TelecommunicationsTelecommunications• EnergyEnergy• Public buildings and infrastructurePublic buildings and infrastructure• Urban services Urban services

BELIZE: TRANSPORT DIRECT COST OF DAMAGE(Belize dollars)

Sub sectorTotal

damages

Totalreconstruction

costsLabour National Foreign

Total 46,735,790 32,726,357 5,028,785 14,321,253 13,376,319

Infrastructure (public sector) 43,550,790 28,901,357 4,991,285 14,313,753 9,596,319

Roads network 23,154,392 25,804,990 4,273,806 12,938,160 8,593,024

Airports 75,000 115,000 66,000 27,500 21,500

Ports 516,747 678,857 190,977 196,838 291,042

Villages and town streetsand urban infrastructure

19,804,651 2,302,510 460,502 1,151,255 690,753

Equipment (private operators& owners)

3,185,000 3,825,000 37,500 7,500 3,780,000

Vehicles (buses) a/ 150,000 150,000 30,000 7,500 112,500

Aircraft 2,395,000 2,875,000 7,500 0 2,867,500

Vessels b/ 640,000 800,000 0 0 800,000

BELIZE: TRANSPORTATION INDIRECT COSTS

(Belize dollars)

Sub sector Total cost GovernmentPrivate users &

operators

Total indirect cost 33,633,646 859,115 32,774,531

Highways 32,240,193 4,025 32,236,168

Cut of roads 22,328,299 4,025 22,324,274

Use of alternative roads 527,612 0 527,612

Roads condition 9,384,282 0 9,384,282

Airport 1,393,453 855,090 538,363

Airport 893,453 855,090 38,363

Airlines lost of income 500,000 0 500,000

Port 0 0 0

Port facilities 0 0 0

Operators lost of income n.a. n.a n.a.

Source: ECLAC.

BELIZE: ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGES ON DRINKING WATER ANDSANITATION NETWORKS a/

City Total Direct Indirect b/Reconstruction c/,

d/Foreign currency

Total 1,854.7 1,654.7 200.0 3,403.7 2,866.5

Belize 1,489.6 1,489.6 - - -Belmopan c/ 39.7 39.7 - 269.9 202.9

Orange Walk Townd/

140.4 140.4 - 1,371.1 1,165.4

Corozal Town d/ 265.1 265.1 - 1,371.1 1,165.4

San Ignacio/Sta.Elena e/

15.1 15.1 - 391.6 332.8

San Pedro 635.6 635.6 - - -Sales (global) f/ 200.0 200.0

Others f/ 51.3 51.3 - - -

BELIZE: SUMMARY ASSESSMENT ON THE ENERGY SECTOR

(Thousands of Belize dollars)

Total Direct Indirect ReconstructionForeigncurrency

Total 4,232.7 3,115.3 1,117.4 4,446.5 3,557.4

Electrical sub-sectorGeneration 823.60 823.60 - 1,420.00 1,136.00Transmission anddistribution

1,538.7 1,538.7 - 2,136.5 1,741.9

Sales 1,455.4 338.0 1,117.4 890.0 722.0Clean up/Others 415.0 415.0 - - -

Source: ECLAC on the basis of official reports and figures from BEL.Notes: 1) Hydrocarbon sub-sector reported no damages.

BELIZE : ASSESSMENT OF DAMAGES ON TELECOMMUNICATION(Thousands of Belize dollars)

Total Direct Indirect a/c/

Reconstructionb/

ForeignCurrency c/

BZ$ 2,422.4 1,536.0 886.4 4,850.0 3,637.5US$ 1,211.2 768.0 443.2 2,425.0 1,818.8

City Total Direct Indirect Reconstruction ForeignCurrency

Caye Caulker 614.4 614.4 - 1,940.0 1,455.0San Pedro 921.6 921.6 - 2,910.0 2,182.5Sales (Global) 886.4 886.4

Economic sector lossesEconomic sector losses

• Agriculture, fisheries, and other rural Agriculture, fisheries, and other rural activitiesactivities

• Industry (including free zones) and Industry (including free zones) and services (commercial, financial, etc.)services (commercial, financial, etc.)

• Tourism (both effects on infrastructure Tourism (both effects on infrastructure losses and damages to hotels, losses and damages to hotels, restaurants, etc., flows of visitors, restaurants, etc., flows of visitors, cruise-ship visitors, impact on ground cruise-ship visitors, impact on ground operations (tour operators, travel operations (tour operators, travel agencies, etc.)agencies, etc.)

BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES TO THE AGRICULTURE SECTOR

Damages (thousands of BZ$)Total area

(Ha)

Affectedarea(Ha)

Loss ofproduction

(t)Direct Indirect Total

Grand total 113,370 37,690 266,982 77,469.0 46,889.1 124,358.1

Export crops 49,961 6,434 272,264 20,693.6 31,244.4 51,938.0Sugar 24,281 3,800 187,800 7,843.9 23,285.3 31,129.2Citrus 25,528 2,553 81,891 8,023.8 5,976.2 14,000.0Papaya (papaw) 49 42 2,376 4,294.8 1,775.9 6,070.7Habanero pepper 22 19 188 331.2 207.0 538.2Cotton 81 20 9 200.0 0 200.0

Domesticconsumption crops 21,272 14,594 42,010 20,456.9 4,821.2 25,278.1Rice 2,837 2,439 8,199 4,699.5 2,164.4 6,863.9Corn 15,827 10,994 18,485 6,927.6 0 6,927.6Soybeans 279 184 372 270.6 219.0 489.6Plantain 490 375 11,067 2,927.8 2,437.8 5,365.6Beans 182 87 97 156.5 0 156.5Other fruits 1,342 294 1,451 1,522.9 0 1,522.9Vegetables 250 180 2,107 3,792.9 0 3,792.9Root crops 65 41 232 159.1 0 159.1

Sector damagesTotal Area(Has)

Affected Area Production(Tons) Direct Indirect Total

Livestock (Heads/Meat) 554,122 38,077 173 14,560,519 4,507,300 19,067,819Cattle 52,060 288 78 181,100 4,507,300 4,688,400Pigs 19,000 130 35 24,000 0 24,000Poultry 479,000 37,635 58 121,080 0 121,080Horses 3,000 15 - 7,500 0 7,500Buffaloes 62 2 1.0 1,600 0 1,600Sheep/Goats 1,000 7 0.2 2,450 0 2,450Pastures (Has.) 42,136 17,627 - 14,222,789 0 14,222,789

Fisheries - - 198 9,554,295 6,205,908 15,760,203Lobster - - 100 4,831,508 4,941,315 9,772,823Conch - - 72 1,197,675 1,077,908 2,275,583Other fish products - - 26 167,872 186,686 354,558Fishing Equipment,Materials, Infrastructure

3,357,240 3,357,240

Beekeeping(Hives/Honey)

800 612 37 107,100 110,160 217,260

Capital Goods(excluding fisheries)

12,096,550 0 12,096,550

Machinery 148,000 0 148,000Infrastructure 11,689,000 0 11,689,000Equipment & Materials 259,550 0 259,550

TOURIST ARRIVALS PROJECTED 2000-2001Philip Goldson International Airport

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

7,055

9,877

12,564 12,678

15,623

10,565

13,019

17,132

12,100

10,376

11,171 11,356

8,687

5,611

4,118

6,980

10,470

11,410

15,623

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000E

ne

-00

Fe

b-0

0

Ma

r-0

0

Ab

r-0

0

Ma

y-0

0

Jun

-00

Jul-

00

Ag

o-0

0

Se

p-0

0

Oct

-00

No

v-0

0

Dic

-00

En

e-0

1

Fe

b-0

1

Nu

mb

er

of

tou

ris

ts

Actual arrivals

Arrivals projected without H. Keith

Arrivals projected with H.Keith

BELIZE: DIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISM

(Ambergris Caye/San Pedro, Caye Caulker, Caye Chapel)

(Thousands ofBZ$)

Total 124,094.01. Hotel buildings (including furniture, equipment, damage golfcourse) a/

84,000.0

2. Gift shops a/ 10,000.03. Restaurants a/ 11,800.04. Landscaping b/ 2,560.05. Piers/marinas c/ 1,134.06. Seawalls + backshore d/ 10,400.07. Tourist related boats (140) a/ 4,200.0

SUMMARY OF DIRECT AND INDIRECT DAMAGES IN TOURISMSECTOR

TOTAL Impact in internationaltrade

DIRECT DAMAGE 124,094,000 79,100,000INDIRECTDAMAGE

36,299,000 36,299,000

TOTAL 160,393,000 115,284,000

BELIZE: SUMMARY OF DAMAGES IN INDUSTRY AND COMMERCE

(Thousands of BZ$)

Total damage Direct Indirect

Impact oninternational

trade

Total industry 45,829.6 30,659.6 15,170.0 41,165.0 Free trade zone 128.0 60.0 68.0 50.0 Timber processing 3,205.0 2,925.0 280.0 -Agroindustry commerce 41,115.0 26,293.0 14,822.0 41,115.0(loss of stock and inventory 1,381.6 1,381.6 - -

Environmental, cultural and Environmental, cultural and historical damageshistorical damages

• To ecosystems (marine life, cays, reef, To ecosystems (marine life, cays, reef, natural reserves, ecological parks, etc.)natural reserves, ecological parks, etc.)

• to archaeological sites and cultural to archaeological sites and cultural heritageheritage

• Assign an economic value to these Assign an economic value to these losses in terms of: losses in terms of: – intervention to redress damageintervention to redress damage– environmental services lost (for the period environmental services lost (for the period

of recovery)of recovery)– assets lost assets lost

HURRICANE KEITH(WAVES, WIND, RAINFALL)

Wildlife (birds) Dead birds Habitat

destruction(nesting andfeeding sites)

Water quality Turbidity Floating sea-

grass contamination

Beaches Erosion Sedimentation

plumes Debris

Sea-grass beds Mechanical

damage Excess

siltation Smothering

Mangroves Defoliation Uprooting of

isolatedtrees

Coral reef Mechanical damage

in located areas Other impacts to

assess (smothering,algae growth,damages fishinggrounds)

Mainland: Flooding Changes in

water courses

IMPACTS ON:

TOURISM(RECREATION)HABITAT

TOURISM(RECREATION)NAVIGATIONFISHING

TOURISM(RECREATION)LAND

FISHERIESSUPPORT OFMARINE LIFE

COASTALPROTECTIONWILDLIFE HABITATFISHERIES

COASTAL PROTECTIONTOURISMFISHERIESUNIQUE ECOSYSTEM

HIDROLOGICALREGULATION

ENVIRONMENTAL GOODSAND SERVICES INVOLVED

ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE ECONOMIC ASSESSMENT SCHEME

HURRICANE KEITH

ENVIRONMENTAL CHANGESIMPACTS UPON PHYSICALINFRASTRUCTURE

Damage totouristinfrastructure- Buildings- Piers- Boats- Protection

Loss ofboats andfishing gear

Overflow ofsewerlagoons andinundation ofseptic tanks

HEALTH EFFECTS

DAMAGES TOFISHING SECTOR

DAMAGES TOTOURISM BUSINESS

INDIRECT DAMAGEValuation of environmentalservices lost included in thedamage assessment of: Tourism sector Fisheries Water sanitation

Loss of water quality(turbidity, floating seagrass)

Birds habitat destruction

Damages to seagrass beds

Damages to coral reef

Damages to mangroves

Beach erosion

ESTIMATION OF DIRECTDAMAGES

Mangroves Beach clean-up Beach erosion Coral reef

NO ESTIMATION OFDIRECT DAMAGES

ENVIRONMENTAL DAMAGE ASSESSMENT

DIRECT DAMAGES (000 Bz$) Property loss by beach erosion a/ Damage to mangroves b/ Damage to coral reef Beaches c lean up (Caye Caulker and Ambergris

Caye) Damages to infrastructure of Lamanai

(archeological site) c / Damages to Crooked Tree Wildlife Sanctuary d/

3,24040,000

4,2401,060

50011

TOTAL 49,051

Overall economic impact Overall economic impact

• (on the basis of expected performance (on the basis of expected performance ex ante of the event and the ex ante of the event and the measurement made by the mission of measurement made by the mission of post-facto effects), indicating:post-facto effects), indicating:– impact on macroeconomic variables (such impact on macroeconomic variables (such

as GDP, external/fiscal balances, etc.),andas GDP, external/fiscal balances, etc.),and– projected reconstruction needs in the projected reconstruction needs in the

short/medium termshort/medium term

ASSESSMENT OF TOTAL DIRECT AND INDIRECT DAMAGE

(Thousands of Belize dollars)

Direct damage Indirect damage Total damage

Total 423,281.4 136,812.3 560,093.7

Social sector 73,307.7 2,239.4 75,547.1 Housing 68,460.6 160.2 68,620.8 Health 2,558.0 1,330.0 3,888.0 Education 2,289.1 749.2 3,038.3

Infrastructure 53,041.8 35,837.4 88,879.2 Transport 46,735.8 33,633.6 80,369.4 Telecommunication 1,536.0 886.4 2,422.4 Energy & electricity 3,115.3 1,117.4 4,232.7 Water and sewerage 1,654.7 200.0 1,854.7

Economic sectors 232,222.3 98,358.0 330,580.3 Tourism 124,094.0 36,298.9 160,392.9 Agriculture, livestock & fisheries

77,469.0 46,889.1 124,358.1

Industry & commerce 30,659.3 15,170.0 45,829.3Environment 49,051.0 0.0 49,051.0 Miscellaneous 10,482.9 377.5 10,860.4 Emergency expenditures - 377.5 377.5 Cost of food 1,844.6 - 1,844.6 Cost of services 8,580.7 - 8,580.7 Cost of services interrupted 57.6 - 57.6

Foreign assistance 5,175.7 0.0 5,175.7

Thousand of US dollars

Direct Indirect Totaldamage damage damage

Total 211,640.7 68,406.2 280,046.9

Social sector 36,653.9 1,119.7 37,773.6Infrastructure 26,520.9 17,918.7 44,439.6Economic sectors 116,111.2 49,179.0 165,290.2Environment 24,525.5 0.0 24,525.5Miscellaneous 5,241.5 188.8 5,430.2Emergency expenditures - 188.8 188.8Foreign Assistance 2,587.9 0.0 2,587.9

Source: ECLAC

SUMMARY OF DAMAGES

The summary data on direct and indirect The summary data on direct and indirect damage indicates that damage indicates that

– the most affected sectors are the productive the most affected sectors are the productive ones: ones:

– tourism and agriculture represent over 47 per tourism and agriculture represent over 47 per cent of the direct damage measured. cent of the direct damage measured.

– Total damage to the economic sectors is Total damage to the economic sectors is estimated as 59 per cent of total damage estimated as 59 per cent of total damage

– Losses of infrastructure account for about 16 Losses of infrastructure account for about 16 per cent of total damage. per cent of total damage.

Their repair or replacement must be a priority as Their repair or replacement must be a priority as they perform a generator function to economic they perform a generator function to economic and social activity nation-wide.and social activity nation-wide.

KEITH’S IMPACT ON BELIZE ECONOMYKEITH’S IMPACT ON BELIZE ECONOMY

Total damage as percentage of GDP (nominal estimate after Keith) 45.7

Total damage as percentage of exports 1999 78.8

Total damage as percentage of imports 1999 64.3

Direct damage as percentage of gross capital formation 1999 92.0

Indirect damage as percentage of domestic savings 1999 45.5

Indirect damage as percentage of consumption 1999 12.7

KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDPKEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP1998 1999

2000 (PreKeith) a/

2000 (PostKeith) a/ 2001 a/ 2002 a/

GDP (real) 1,097,612 1,165,242 1,234,801 1,223,262 1,253,490 1,336,331

I. Primary activities 202,451 225,752 251,965 233,774 234,604 259,568 1.1 Agriculture 146,920 157,819 168,651 156,300 148,628 159,537

II. Secondary activities 249,301 255,929 271,088 277,148 290,642 313,365 2.1 Manufacturing 143,484 150,502 151,016 155,200 149,196 151,723 2.2 Electricity & water 43,322 31,594 32,333 29,821 29,631 30,031 2.3 Construction 62,495 73,832 87,739 92,126 111,815 131,611

III. Service 699,886 729,434 758,489 759,080 774,685 810,179 3.1 Trade, rests., hotels 234,801 245,745 258,084 256,866 264,496 285,509 3.2 Transport &communications

114,843 123,704 125,600 125,112 124,565 127,730

3.3 Finance & insurance 73,208 76,679 81,802 81,802 85,562 90,403 3.4 Real estate & bus service 70,370 73,888 78,772 78,772 82,337 86,939 3.5 Public administration 136,716 137,579 141,178 142,174 143,524 144,037 3.6 Communications & other services 69,948 71,840 73,053 74,354 74,200 75,561 Per capita GDP ($) 4,612 4,795 4,881 4,835 4,812 4,977 Annual per cent growth inGDP

1.5 6.2 6.0 5.0 2.5 6.6

KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDPKEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP2000 2000

1998 1999PreKeith

PostKeith 2001 2002

(BZ$ millions)GDP at current market prices 1,351.4 1,374.2 1,469.3 1,470.2 1,536.4 1,659.4GDP by industry at current factor cost 1,051.2 1,154.9 1,234.8 1,223.3 1,289.8 1,400.5GDP by industry at constant 2000 prices 1,097.6 1,165.2 1,234.8 1,223.3 1,253.5 1,336.3 (US$ millions)GDP by industry at current factor cost 525.6 577.5 617.4 611.7 644.9 700.3GDP by industry at constant 2000 prices 548.8 582.6 617.4 611.7 626.8 668.2Percentage change in GDP at currentprices

1.1 9.9 6.9 5.9 5.4 8.6

GDP growth, constant (2000) prices(after Keith) 1.5 6.2 6.0 5.0 2.5 6.6

Source: ECLAC.

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

1998 1999 2,000.0 2001 2002

GDP growth, constant (2000) prices (after Keith)

Estimated GDP grouth, constant (2000) prices (withouth Keith)

KEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDPKEITH’S EFFECTS ON GDP

Reconstruction strategy and Reconstruction strategy and prioritiespriorities• Definition of a mitigation and reconstruction Definition of a mitigation and reconstruction

strategystrategy• Capital losses and reconstruction funds neededCapital losses and reconstruction funds needed• Social sectors restitution and compensation Social sectors restitution and compensation

mechanismsmechanisms• Identification of local constraints and resource-Identification of local constraints and resource-

complements required to overcome themcomplements required to overcome them• appeal of assistance in reconstruction (as appeal of assistance in reconstruction (as

distinct from the emergency needs)distinct from the emergency needs)• role of the private sectorrole of the private sector

ANNEX: ANNEX:

• List of project profiles in the form of List of project profiles in the form of individual fact sheet for each profile individual fact sheet for each profile indicating sector, content, indicating sector, content, objectives, actions to be performed, objectives, actions to be performed, total cost, local inputs and external total cost, local inputs and external resources needed, indicating resources needed, indicating executing agency suggested and executing agency suggested and possible source of resources.possible source of resources.

Sector composition of the projects Sector composition of the projects identifiedidentified

In the amount of BZ$211.6 million (or US$105.8) in In the amount of BZ$211.6 million (or US$105.8) in percentages:percentages:

Projects in social sectors 48.0

Health and sanitation 2.5

Education 1.4

Housing 44.1

Energy, water supply, sanitation andtelecommunications

6.1

Transport subsector 15.8

Productive sectors 24.8

Agriculture 24.3

Tourism 0.5

Environmental management 5.3

Prevention and mitigation

Thus the urgency to face the challenge Thus the urgency to face the challenge not only of replacing lost housing and not only of replacing lost housing and other social infrastructure but to do so other social infrastructure but to do so

with new, more resilient criteria and with new, more resilient criteria and giving full attention to risk reduction giving full attention to risk reduction

since –as Keith made apparent—since –as Keith made apparent—Belizean society has a high level of Belizean society has a high level of

exposed vulnerability.exposed vulnerability.

On occasion an event like Keith –fortunately enough without On occasion an event like Keith –fortunately enough without

major losses of lives as has recently occurred in other major losses of lives as has recently occurred in other

countries—opens the opportunity for a change of policy and countries—opens the opportunity for a change of policy and

a soul-searching effort to avoid preserving or aggravating a soul-searching effort to avoid preserving or aggravating

presently negative trends. Certainly Keith represents an presently negative trends. Certainly Keith represents an

economic setback in some aspects but it may be just the economic setback in some aspects but it may be just the

kind of reminder needed to give a hard look to ongoing kind of reminder needed to give a hard look to ongoing

processes that may be rectified.processes that may be rectified.

IMPACT OF HURRICANE KEITH IN BELIZEIMPACT OF HURRICANE KEITH IN BELIZE