ihtiocenozes struktūras izmaiĦas latvijas ezeros pēdējo 50 gadu...
TRANSCRIPT
A.A.ŠŠkute, V. Bardakute, V. Bardaččenko, A. Solomenikovsenko, A. Solomenikovs
Ihtiocenozes struktIhtiocenozes struktūūrasras
izmaiizmaiĦĦas Latvijas ezeros pas Latvijas ezeros pēēddēējo jo
50 gadu laik50 gadu laikāā nozvejas un nozvejas un
klimataklimata
izmainu kontekstizmainu kontekstāā
DU EkoloDU Ekoloăăijas institijas institūūtsts
Nozveja RNozveja Rāāznas ezerznas ezerāā
Nozveja RNozveja Rāāznas ezerznas ezerāā
Nozveja pa sugNozveja pa sugāāmm
DaudzveidDaudzveidīības dinamikabas dinamikaShannon
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010
Wiener-Shannon;))(log('1
2∑=
=s
iii ppH
DaudzveidDaudzveidīības dinamikabas dinamika
1
1,5
2
2,5
3
3,5
1950
1955
1960
1965
1970
1975
1980
1985
1990
1995
2000
2005
2010
initial Shannon
Aver+LT+QT+sinW1
initial Shannon - noteiktais daudzveidības indekss Modelis ar lineāro, kvadrātisko un
periodisko komponentēm
HD(T) = H1(T) + H2(T) = 2,4967 + 15,128 -0,00765 *T -0,0004264262*T2 + 1.6865*T - 1667.4 + 0,225*SIN(2*PI*0,107+1,312)
Ar ko tas var bAr ko tas var būūt saistt saistīīts?ts?
TemperatTemperatūūras ietekme?ras ietekme?
“ Bottom-Up”
PlPlēēssēēju ietekme?ju ietekme?Temperatūra
?PreyPrey
PredatorPredator
“ Top-Down”
0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2
1950
1951
1952
1953
1954
1955
1956
1957
1958
1959
1960
1961
1962
1963
1964
1965
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
1973
1974
1975
1976
1977
1978
1979
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
Sh Predator L&ASh Prey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&SaSh Plaudis&ZutisPoly. (Sh Prey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&Sa)Poly. (Sh Predator L&A)Poly. (Sh Plaudis&Zutis)
DaudzveidDaudzveidīības dinamikabas dinamika
Shannon
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
PredatorPrey
Modelis Modelis ““plplēēssēējsjs--upurisupuris””
Predator-Prey model: differential equations
x, y biomass of Predators and Preys
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
mar
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
jan
-18
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
apr
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
may
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
jun
0
5
10
15
20
25
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005jul
0
5
10
15
20
25
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005aug
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
18
20
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
sep
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
oct
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
nov
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
dec
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
DaudzveidDaudzveidīības indeksa dinamika bas indeksa dinamika ((PredatorPredator--Prey)Prey)
Shannon`s index dynamics of 3 groups of fish populations
00.10.20.30.40.50.60.70.80.9
1
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Time, year
Sh
anno
n`s
inde
x
Sh Predator L&A
Shannon`s index dynamics of 3 groups of fish populations
00.20.40.60.8
11.21.41.61.8
2
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41 43 45 47 49 51
Time, year
Sh
anno
n`s
inde
x
Sh Prey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&Sa
MMēēnenešša a temperattemperatūūras ras
dinamikadinamika
KoherenceKoherence
)()()()(/)()( ωϕωωωωω ikkYYkXXkXYk eCohSSSCoh ⋅==
)(ωϕ - Koherences fāze
Divu procesu X(t) un Y (t) koherences spektru Coh(ω) nosaka kākrosspektra Sxy(ω) un autospektru Sxx (ω), un Syy(ω) attiecību.
Kross-spektrālā analīze
Koherences Koherences kvadrkvadr āātu spektri tu spektri
starp mstarp m ēēnenešša a temperattemperat ūūru unru unShannon PreyShannon Prey
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jan coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
may
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jun
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jul
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
aug
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
sep
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
oct
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
nov
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
dec
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
feb
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
mar
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
apr
ХХ -- harmoniku harmoniku periods gadosperiods gados,,УУ –– koherence koherence
nono 0 0 llīīdzdz11attiecattiecīīggāās s
harmonikas harmonikas frekvencfrekvencēē
KonstatKonstatēēttāās likumsakars likumsakarīībasbas
• Koherences kvadrāta spektrs starp mēneša temperatūru un neplēsīgo zivju (prey) Šenona daudzveidības indeksu būtiski mainās harmonikām ar 2 un 4 gadu periodu.
• Šādu periodiskumu var izraisīt arī plēsēju ietekme uz neplēsīgo zivju grupu (Lotka-Volterramodelis).
Shannon Predator
(Lidaka & Asaris)
Shannon Predator
(Lidaka & Asaris)
Shannon Prey(Rauda, Vike,
Repsis, Salaka)
Shannon Prey(Rauda, Vike,
Repsis, Salaka) Temperat ūraTemperat ūra
Linear SystemGain of Y over X
X:Sh Plaudis&Zutis : x-.0711-.018*t Y:Sh Predator L&A: x-.6593+.0048*t
No. of cases: 500Ham m ing weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Ga
in o
f Y o
ver X
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
Phase Spectrum
X:Sh Plaudis&Zutis : x-.0711-.018*t Y:Sh Predator L&A: x-.6593+.0048*t
No. of cases: 500Ham m ing weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0.0
0.5
1.0
1.5
Ph
ase
Sp
ect
rum
-2.0
-1.5
-1.0
-0.5
0 .0
0 .5
1 .0
1 .5
Linear SystemGain of Y over X
X:Sh Prey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&Sa : x-1.881+.0219*t Y:Sh Predator L&A: x-.6593+.0048*t
No. of cases: 500Ham m ing weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
1.8
2.0
Ga
in o
f Y o
ver X
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Phase Spectrum
X:Sh Prey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&Sa : x-1.881+.0219*t Y:Sh Predator L&A: x-.6593+.0048*t
No. of cases: 500Ham m ing weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4P
ha
se S
pe
ctru
m
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Linear SystemGain of Y over X
X:Sh Plaudis &Zutis : x-.07 11-.018 *t Y:Sh Pr ey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&S a: x-1.881+.0 219*t
No. of cas es : 500
Ham ming weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Ga
in o
f Y o
ver X
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
Phas e Spectrum
X:Sh Plaudis &Zutis : x-.07 11-.018 *t Y:Sh Pr ey Ra&Vi&Ki&Re&S a: x-1.881+.0 219*t
No. of cas es : 500
Ham ming weights :.0020 .0020 .0022 .0024 .0027 .0030 .0035 .0040 .0045 ...
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
Period
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Pha
se S
pect
rum
-4
-3
-2
-1
0
1
2
3
4
Viens no teorViens no teor ēētiski tiski iespiesp ēējamiem variantiem par jamiem variantiem par neplnepl ēēss īīgo zivju daudzveidgo zivju daudzveid īības bas ((Shannon PreyShannon Prey ) saist) saist īību bu struktstrukt ūūruru
Lai izslLai izslēēgtu iespejamo plgtu iespejamo plēēssēēju (ju (Shannon of Shannon of PredatorPredator)) ietekmi uz temperatietekmi uz temperatūūrasras--upuru (upuru (TempTemp--ShPreyShPrey)) saistsaistīību tika noteikti atsevibu tika noteikti atseviššėėu koherenu koherenčču u
kvadrkvadrāātu spektritu spektri (spectra of partial coherence)(spectra of partial coherence)
““ PirmajPirmaj āā ceturksnceturksn īī”” plplēēssēēju ietekmes navju ietekmes navcoherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jan Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
feb Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
marPartial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
KreisajKreisajāā stabistabiĦāĦākoherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu
spektrispektri
LabajLabajāā stabistabiĦāĦāatseviš ėu (partial)
koherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu spektri spektri
(bez Predator ietekmes)(bez Predator ietekmes)
AprApr īīll īī –– maijmaij āā ir ir jjūūtama pltama pl ēēssēēju ju ietekme, kas ietekme, kas izmaina spektrusizmaina spektrus
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
mar Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
aprPartial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
mayPartial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
KreisajKreisajāā stabistabiĦāĦākoherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu
spektrispektri
LabajLabajāā stabistabiĦāĦāatseviš ėu (partial)
koherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu spektri spektri
(bez Predator ietekmes)(bez Predator ietekmes)
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jun Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
jul Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
aug Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
VasarVasarāā plplēēssēēju ju ietekme pieaug, ietekme pieaug, īīpapašši tas ir augusti tas ir august āā..
KreisajKreisajāā stabistabiĦāĦākoherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu
spektrispektri
LabajLabajāā stabistabiĦāĦāatseviš ėu (partial)
koherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu spektri spektri
(bez Predator ietekmes)(bez Predator ietekmes)
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
sep Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
oct Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Coh
eren
ce s
quar
ed
Tolerance 5% level
nov Partial coherence squared
0.0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10Period T, year
Par
tial c
oher
ence
squ
ared
Tolerance 5% level
No septembra lNo septembra l īīdz dz decembrim nav decembrim nav bbūūtisku koherenttisku koherent āās s saisitsaisit īības formas bas formas izmaiizmai ĦĦu plu pl ēēssēēju ju ietekmietekm ēē
KreisajKreisajāā stabistabiĦāĦākoherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu
spektrispektri
LabajLabajāā stabistabiĦāĦāatseviš ėu (partial)
koherences kvadrkoherences kvadrāātu tu spektri spektri
(bez Predator ietekmes)(bez Predator ietekmes)
SecinSecināājumijumi
• Periodiskas (2 – 4 gadi) neplēsīgo zivju daudzveidības svārstības Rāznas ezerā var būt saistītas ar mēneša vidējās temperatūras svārstībām dažādos gados
• Vasaras mēnešos (īpaši augustā) neplēsīgo zivju daudzveidības svārstības būtiski ietekmē plēsēji
• Pavasara un rudens-ziemas mēnešu temperatūras izmaiĦām var būt būtiska ietekme uz Rāznas ezera ihtiofaunu